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Long Term Climate Policy Scenarios for Germany Montreal, 3rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Long Term Climate Policy Scenarios for Germany Montreal, 3rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Long Term Climate Policy Scenarios for Germany Montreal, 3rd December 2005 Martin Wei Federal Environment Agency, Germany Warming in Germany Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5 Stabilisation Scenarios Common but differentiated Responsibility
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Stabilisation Scenarios
Source: Meinshausen 2 0 0 5
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Common but differentiated Responsibility
400 ppmv 2020
- 70%
- 50%
- 30%
- 10%
10% 30% 50% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 400 ppmv 2050
- 100%
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 450 ppmv 2020
- 50%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference 450 ppmv 2050
- 100%
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% USA EU25 FRA GER UK R+EEU JPN RAI C&C CDC Mutistage Triptych Reference
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Effect of current policies
Industry incl. process emissions Households Energy Manufacturing, trade and services Transport (w/o intern. aviation) Non-CO2 gasses
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GHG Reduction Targets
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Cost is Function of Energy Prices
Cost in billion € p.a.
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Cutting Energy demand by 50% by 2050
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Electricity Supply
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Heat production
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Transport Fuels
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Conclusions
- Germany: 40% in 2020 and 80% in
2050 is technically feasible and economically viable
- Reduce energy demand to 50% and
increase share of renewables to 50%
- Success stories: EEG and ETR
- New: Emissions trading has to be
strengthened to contribute
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Thank You!
martin.weiss@uba.de www.umweltbundesamt.de/ klimaschutz www.klimaschuetzen.de www.fiacc.net