March 2005 Monetary Policy Statement Economic Projections 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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March 2005 Monetary Policy Statement Economic Projections 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 01, 2023 116 likes •377 views

Economic projections March 2005 Monetary Policy Statement Economic Projections 1 presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) Outline 1.Assumptions Inflation judgement retained 2. First pass projection 3. Special topics Wages

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 1

Economic projections

March 2005 Monetary Policy Statement

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 2

Outline

1.Assumptions

  • Inflation judgement retained
  • 2. First pass projection
  • 3. Special topics
  • Wages
  • Inflation expectations
  • NZ Current Account deficit
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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 3

Figure 6.1.1: Output gap & Non-tradables inflation

2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

6 5 4 3 2 1

  • 1

% % Median non-tradables inflation (RHS) GDP - deviation from trend (advanced 2 quarters)

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 4

Figure 6.1.2: 90-day rates

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 200 150 100 50

  • 50
  • 100

% BP Mar-05 first pass (LHS) Dec-04 MPS Difference (RHS)

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 5

Figure 6.1.3: TWI

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 70 65 60 55 50 45 70 65 60 55 50 45 Index Index Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 6

Figure 6.1.4: 5-year swap rate

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 Index Index Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 7

Figure 6.1.6: Exports (% of potential GDP)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 % of GDP % of GDP Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 8

Figure 6.1.7: Dubai Oil price

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 $US per barrel $US per barrel Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 9

Figure 6.1.8: Imports (% of potential GDP)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 % of GDP % of GDP Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 10

Figure 6.1.9: Terms of trade

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 Index Index Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 11

Figure 6.1.10: Current account balance

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97

  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8

% of GDP % of GDP Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 12

Figure 6.1.12: House price inflation

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 25 20 15 10 5

  • 5
  • 10

25 20 15 10 5

  • 5
  • 10

% % Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 13

Figure 6.1.13: Residential investment (% of potential GDP)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 % of GDP % of GDP Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 14

Consumption (% of potential)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3 2

  • 2
  • 3
  • Ann. av

g % Qtrly % growth Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS Quarterly growth: Mar-05 first pass (RHS)

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 15

Participation rate

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5 66.0 65.5 65.0 64.5 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5 66.0 65.5 65.0 64.5 % % Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 16

Participation rate – 20 – 24 year olds

05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 % % Particpation rate, 20 - 24 year olds

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 17

Figure 6.1.15: Unemployment rate

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 8 7 6 5 4 3 8 7 6 5 4 3 % % Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 18

Figure 6.1.16: Wage inflation

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 % % difference APC: Mar-05 first pass APC: Dec-04 MPS QPC: Mar - 05 (RHS)

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 19

Figure 6.1.17: Business investment (AAPC)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 20 15 10 5

  • 5
  • 10

20 15 10 5

  • 5
  • 10
  • Ann. av

g %

  • Ann. av

g % Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 20

Figure 6.1.18: Govt expenditure (% of potential GDP)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 19.0 % of GDP % of GDP Mar-05 first pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 21

Figure 6.1.20: GDP growth (AAPC)

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 6 5 4 3 2 1

  • 1

6 5 4 3 2 1

  • 1
  • Ann. av

g %

  • Ann. av

g % Mar-05 First pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 22

Figure 6.1.21: Output Gap

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • Ann. av

g %

  • Ann. av

g % Mar-05 First pass Dec-04 MPS

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 23

Tradables and non-tradables breakdown

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 5 4 3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

5 4 3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

Ann % Ann % Sep-04 first pass non-tradables inflation Sep-04 first pass tradables inflation cpidot4

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Economic Projections presentation March 2005 MPS (Ref #1498154 v1 0) 24

CPI Inflation

07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Ann % Ann % Policy window Mar 05 (Dec int rate) Mar-05 first pass Dec04