+ MN WIC Conference Susan Brower, State Demographer October 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MN WIC Conference Susan Brower, State Demographer October 2013

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Topics for today

*WIC demographics 101 *4 trends that will impact your work in the coming years *Your insights and questions

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WIC demographics 101

+ Number of low-income (<185% FPL) children under age 5

102,675 86,776 118,201 1990 2000 2007-2011

+ More than 1 in 3 new mothers have low-incomes

Low-income 37%

New mothers with low-incomes (<185% FPL) 2007-2011

+ WIC-eligible children considerably more diverse than in past decades

• 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1990 2000 2007-2011 Other/Multiracial Hispanic Black Asian American Indian White

+ Number of births has dropped since the recession

68,407 58,000 60,000 62,000 64,000 66,000 68,000 70,000 72,000 74,000 76,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

T

• tal births

Minnesota 1990-2010

+ Birth rates have declined among younger women, remained the same for older women

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45 and up 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Births per 1,000 women

+ …and birth rates have declined among some populations of color

5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Births per 1,000 women

Black White Asian American Indian

+ Poverty rates have been growing, especially among children

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Trend #1: Population aging is beginning to affect MN and the nation

Aging

+ Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center 85 55 71 67 47 91

• 1950s

60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)

+ Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years

85 55 71 67 47 91 285 335 97 66 56 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center

+ Why are changes so marked now?

250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+

Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2010

Female Male 65 years Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+ For the first time in MN history: More 65+ than school-age by 2020

U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 18-24 65+ 5-17

+ Increasingly our demographics will change the demand for services

K-12 Education 42% Health & Human Services 31% Higher Education 8% All other areas 19%

 Medical Assistance Expenditures:

25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)

 Medical Assistance Expenditures

for the Elderly and Disabled: 16%

• f GF spending (5.5 billion)

 MA expenditures include basic

care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care General Fund Expenditures FY 2012-2013 Within Health & Human Services Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long- Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

From 2008: If State Health Care Costs Continue Their Current Trend, State Spending On Other Services Can’t Grow

3.9% 8.5% 0.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Revenue Health Care Education & All Other Annual Ave Growth 2008- 2033 General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+ Plans to Cover the Cost of Long T

erm Care Baby boomers in MN, 2010

Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services

+ MN’s labor force growth is projected to slow

1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Average Annual Labor Force Growth, 1980-2035

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections

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Trend #2: Minnesota and the T win Cities are becoming more diverse

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Source: mncompass.org

50 years of growing diversity in our region, state, nation

36% 17% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Percent Of Color, 1960-2010

U.S. MN Twin Cities

2000: Few cities had populations of color > 15%

Source: PolicyMap 2010 Census data

Source: PolicyMap 2000 Census data

Source: PolicyMap 2010 Census data

2010: Many cities had populations of color > 20%

+ A portrait of Minnesota, 2011

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+

Percent White (non-Hispanic) and Of Color Minnesota, 2011

Of Color White (non-Hispanic)

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International immigration has been increasing in recent decades…

Percent Foreign Born Minnesota 1970-2009

7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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…but immigration is not a new phenomenon in MN

Percent Foreign Born Minnesota 1970-2009

7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 20%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

+ Percent of MN young people who are “children of immigrants”

Under age 20, it’s 1 in 6 Under age 5, it’s 1 in 5

“Children of immigrants” are foreign-born themselves, or have one or two foreign- born parents

+ Minnesotans with language barriers (likely

linguistically isolated)

700 1,000 1,200 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,500 3,700 5,900 9,000 14,200 50,600 Arabic Amharic/Ethiopian French German Chinese Mon-Khmer/Cambodian Laotian Russian Vietnamese Cushite/Beja/Somali Miao, Hmong Spanish

Minnesotans 5+ with limited English skills, by home language, 2006-2010

Source: IPUMS version of 2006-2010 American Community Survey. Tabulations by MN State Demographic Center.

+ Our foreign-born population is becoming increasingly diverse

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Oceania North America Africa Latin America Asia Europe

+ Most of MN’s recent population increase

resulted from natural increase (births-deaths)

Minnesota Population Change

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1990-00 2000-10 Total Change Natural Increase Migration

+ Not from around here?

• Good. We need you.

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.

Net migration Natural change (births-deaths

+ Not from around here?

• Good. We need you.

Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.

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Trend #3 Post- recession growth looks new and different

U.S. Census Bureau

Percentage change 2000-2010

+ Population growth rates have converged

• ver the last decade

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual percentage change in population

Benton, Stearns, Olmstead Exurban Greater MN Hennepin, Ramsey Suburban

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Trend #4: Income inequality widening – poverty rates remain high

+ Percent in Poverty, 1980-2011

8% MN, 12% U.S., 16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1980 1990 2000 2010

Individuals in Households with Income Below the Federal Poverty Threshold

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey 2011 Poverty threshold for a family of four = $22,811 Recession

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+ QUIZ QUESTION:

What share of Minnesota’s Black children live in poverty? A.

1 in 10

B.

1 in 8

C.

1 in 4

D.

1 in 2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.

+ In Minnesota

5 in 10 Black children, 4 in 10 American Indian children 3 in 10 Hispanic children 2 in 10 Asian children, and 1 in 10 White children

LIVED IN POVERTY IN 2012

+ 2012 unemployment and poverty rates by race, Minnesota

Unemployment (16+) Poverty Child (<18) Poverty All 8% 11% 15% Asian 7% 16% 20%

• Am. Indian

19% 32% 38% Black 18% 38% 46% White 5% 8% 8% Multiracial 12% 22% 23% Hispanic 11% 26% 30%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey.

+ Gains in 4-year HS graduation… But still a long ways to go

Source: mncompass.org

+ U.S. data:

T

• p 1/5th of households have

widening share of income

+ Minnesota is historically well- positioned to be competitive

Source: mncompass.org

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Susan Brower This presentation can be found here:

http://www.demography.state.mn.us/

Questions? Comments?