Modeling the response of industry to environmental constraint Alain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling the response of industry to environmental constraint

Alain HITA – Ahcène DJEMAA (Ph D student) EDF R&D/ Eco-efficiency and industrial processes Dept.

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Industry energy consuming

CO2 Emissions for France: Industry : 21 % of France total CO2 emissions

Transports 32%

Industry 28%

Agriculture 2% Tertiary 12% Résidential 27%

Energy consumption in Europe (2005) Source: IEA

How the carbon constraint influence the choice of energy by the re-optimisation of industrial processes ?

Energy Water Raw Materials Waste CO2 Products Fossil fuels, electricity ??

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TIMES modeling interest

 analysis of a set of criteria covering energy, environment and economy

• Energy mix ?
• Associated CO2 emissions ?
• technological changes ?
• Investments chronology ? ...

 bottom-up model advantages(TIMES)

The model chooses the best economical production technologies (energy efficiency, investment cost,..)

 Optimization, under constraints,

• f a technological representation
• f a reference energy system on a

time horizon

Energy Environment Economy

Technological choices

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Energy intensive industrial sectors

Industry

Refinery Cement Pulp & Paper Steel Glass

Others construction materials

Energy intensive Others Chemicals Industrial perimeter related to the CO2 emission trading scheme

France CO2 emissions (Mt) 2005

Steel

Paper

cement

Glass

Others Cons. Mat.

Model Real

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TIMES (steel industry)

Reference Energetical System

Energy and CO2 prices

Industrial DEMAND

Energy consumption CO2 emissions

Scenarios Scenarios

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Times : The Reference Energy System (RES)

New technology Existing Technology

Emissions Demand Energy/ Raw Materials

 The model manages the decommissioning of production units

……. T1 T2 T3 Ti

Capacity Investment Cost Prod.

Technological Options

I C L

…

Need of data

Industrial stock (plants age, production capacity, process) New Processes (energy efficiency, production cost, investment) Sources : CEREN,ULCOS, EDF R&D, Centre Technique Papier, BREF (IPPC) , etc… End

• f life

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Steel production routes

Coal

Ore Sinter/Pellet Coke oven

Blast Furnace

Pig Iron OH Furnace Oxygen Oxygen Converter Steel Hot Rolling Cold Rolling Finition Scrap

Electric Furnace

Continuous Casting Lime Coal Products

Blast Furnace Route Electrical Arc Furnace Route

Natural gaz, hydrogen Electricity Coal

Direct Reduction DRI Smelting Reduction SR ELYSIS Iron Ore Pellet Iron Ore Alkaline Electrolysis Iron Ore PLYSIS Pyro electrolysis Iron Ore Direct Reduction Route Smelting Reduction Route A-Electrolysis P-Electrolysis

 six routes (two classics, two news and two futures) with several technologies for each one

Electricity

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Factor 4 case study (France)

Scenarios : Energy and CO2

Reference scenario

CO2 PRICE Energy Prices

Industrial Growth

Factor 4

10 20 30 40 50 60

Factor 4 for industry between 2000 and 2050

CO2 (Mt) Mitigation

Energy price (Reference scenario) 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity Oil Natural Gas Coal

External energy prices hypothesis (POLES Model)

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Factor 4 case study (France)

Scenarios : industrial demand

Glass fiber Recycled paper Special glass Flat glass Hollow glass Steel Paper Chemical paper Pulp Cement Gypsum plaster Mecanical paper Pulp

Growth scenario Historical

Source: EDF R&D (made before 2008 financial crisis)

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F4 results : Influence on energies

(total energy consumption and energy mix)

F4

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

F4 Reference

Twh

No change before 2030 Gas is replacing coal Electrcity is replacing gas

Note : around 2030-35, we supposed a strong growth of french steel industry, supported by a strong world demand ( may be too optimistic ?) Reference F4

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F4 results : re-optimisation of industrial processes (steel industry example)

Steel production

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mt

Improved Blast furnace ( Direct Coal Injection) Blast furnace Electric arc furnace Contiarc arc furnace (preheated scrap) Direct reduction (natural gas) (HYL III ) Electrolysis Steel demand

F4 (France)

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F4 results : Factor 4 imposed to the whole industry ou distributed by sector

Factor 4 distributed by industrial sector

CO2 (Mt)

Glass Paper Other construction materials Cement Steel CO2 Constraint

New technologies can reach the objective of factor 4 (mainly with CCS and electricity uses) CO2 effort is more easy for some sectors Factor 4 for the whole industry

Glass Paper Other construction materials Cement Steel

CO2 (Mt)

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F4 results : Marginal cost of CO2 emissions mitigation

Marginal cost of CO2 lower for cement industry Factor 4 distributed by industrial sector

Marginal CO

2 cost r

é duction by sector ( € /t)

100 200 300 400 500 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cement Other construction materials Steel Paper Glass

Marginal CO

2 cost r

é duction by sector ( € /t)

100 200 300 400 500 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cement Other construction materials Steel Paper Glass

Marginal CO

2

cost r é duction by sector ( € /t)

100 200 300 400 500 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cement

Other construction materials

Steel Paper Glass

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F4 results : Marginal cost of CO2 emissions mitigation for the whole industry

Factor 4 for the whole industry

• 79%

F 4 Reference

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Conclusions

Interest of TIMES model for industry :

• Full description of the technological choices of the reference energy

system of industry. It allows the calculation of the resulting energy mix and the carbon cost for each industrial subsector.

• Limitations :
• Importance of database
• Energy Price scenarios and demand scenarios are exogenous. Consistency has to be
• ensured. No return effects on price nor demand

F4 case study : 1st exercise with TIMES-industry. Primarily intented to validate the consistency of the tool.

Some restrictions (only industry, no electricity production sector, France is insulated, CCS is accepted). However it shows that there are still technological solutions (electrical processes are revisited) to reduce CO2 emissions in industry.

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 Thank you for your attention

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Datas on plants (age, production capacity)

 Steel industry (France)

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Data on technical options (energy efficiency performances)

For steel production: 9 standard processes 17 Energy efficient processes 19 breakthrough processes

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Datas on production cost

 Example : Midrex (direct reduction by natural gaz via H2,CO)

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F4 results : re-optimisation of industrial processes

(Cement and paper examples)

F4 Efficient drying system (drying with vapor compression system) (Electricity (+15 à +20%), steam (-70 à -90%)) Source : ICARUS-4,

Profil de production papier (Mt)/ SCBND 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 2000 2003 2005 2008 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 IPPADRPRO10 IPPPDPRO05 IPPRPRO00

F4

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Résultats : Réoptimisation du parc de production par secteurs (sidérurgie,ciment)

Tendanciel Facteur 4 Facteur 4 Facteur 4 Sans CCS, le système ne peut satisfaire la demande sans importer du clinker Le ciment s’oriente vers le CCS La sidérurgie s’oriente vers des techniques électriques