MWCropDSS for SCY4cast system MBMS SDBMS DSSAT 4.6 FILE-X & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jul 07, 2023 270 likes •382 views

MWCropDSS for SCY4cast system MBMS SDBMS DSSAT 4.6 FILE-X & Admin. boundary OTHER INPUTS Crop areas Roi Et Series Soil Series TH01370001 Production Scenarios Climate zone CMMC KKKU ECHAM4 OUTPUT FILES GCM & RCMs:

SLIDE 1

Climate zone Soil Series Crop areas

Admin. boundary

SDBMS

DSSAT 4.6 FILE-X & OTHER INPUTS OUTPUT FILES

ANALYSIS PROGRAMS

Roi Et Series TH01370001

CMMC KKKU ECHAM4

Yield & Production 3-6 Months in advance

Production Scenarios

MBMS

GCM ¡& ¡RCMs: ¡SWF ¡

MWCropDSS for SCY4cast system

Jintrawet (2009)

SEACLID/CORDEX

SLIDE 2

Jintrawet and Chinvanno (2011)

Simulation of rice production

ptions

under climate change scenarios using MSCropDSS for Thailand

SLIDE 3

Rationale

Rice ¡ 2557/58 ¡

Planted ¡area ¡(mil. ¡rai) ¡

64.950 ¡

Harvested ¡area ¡(mil. ¡rai) ¡

62.150 ¡

Yield ¡(t/rai) ¡

0.442 ¡

Lost ¡ Un-‑harvested ¡(mil. ¡rai) ¡

2.800 ¡

Un-‑harvested ¡(% ¡in ¡NE) ¡

82.000 ¡

Seed ¡ ¡(mil. ¡Baht) ¡

1,120.000 ¡

Paddy ¡yield ¡(mil. ¡Tonnes) ¡

1.240 ¡

Paddy ¡value ¡(mil. ¡Baht) ¡

9,901.000 ¡ Main rice & cassava production systems Cassava ¡ 2555/56 ¡ 9.24 ¡ 8.51 ¡ 3.51 ¡ 0.73 ¡ 60.00 ¡ 1,460.00 ¡ 2.56 ¡ 6,393.00 ¡

SLIDE 4

Seasonal Yield Forecast methods

Expert

pinion

Crop cut Linking with Weather conditions Remote sensing Survey & National statistics Crop simulation & spatial database

Yield & production estimates

Localize
No trainings

needed

Hard to

duplicate & check

No PAR
No operation

Yield & production estimates

Nationwide
Multiple crops
Need trainings
Moderately

easy to duplicate & check

One-way PAR
Hard to
perate

Yield & production estimates

Few crops
Need trainings
Hard to

duplicate

Easy to verify
No PAR
Hard to
perate

Yield & production estimates With simplified process model

Few crops
Need special

trainings

Easy to duplicate
Easy to verify
No PAR
Easy to operate by

specialists

Yield & production estimates

Selected crops
Need special

trainings

Easy to duplicate
Easy to verify
No PAR
Easy to operate

by specialists

Dynamic Yield & production estimates

Selected crops
Need very special

trainings

Easy to duplicate
Easy to verify
No PAR
Easy to operate by

specialists

Yield & production estimates With static model

Few crops
Need special

trainings

Localized
Easy to use
No PAR
Easy to operate by

specialists

SLIDE 5

Team’s Vision

SCY4cast system is implemented in AMS by 2020

SLIDE 6

Team’s Mission for SCY4cast by 2020

Rice and/or Cassava production (kg) = Area planted & harvested (ha) x Averaged yield (kg/ha)

2. Rice area planted &

harvested (SMU)

Small area from Drone
Site-specific from Field

survey/report

3. CSM-CERES-Rice testing (SIM)
Process-oriented & deterministic
Laboratory works
Calibration & Evaluation at field

level

Response to major inputs
1. Seasonal Weather

Forecast (SWF)

10x10 km
Ensemble of GCMs &

RCMs

Stochastic by nature
Report every month
4. Participatory Data Collection

(Based on SMU)

Site/HH participation
Data on field operations,

resource utilization and yield (OBS)

Cost-Benefit Analysis
5. Seasonal Crop (Rice and Cassava) Yield

Forecast System: ThaiSCYFS]

Reporting & Consultation

Reports as

3-6 months in advance

f harvesting

SMU

OBS SIM

SLIDE 7

Rice and/or Cassava production (kg) = Area planted & harvested (ha) x Averaged yield (kg/ha)

2. Rice planted &

harvested (SMU)

Small area from Drone
Site-specific from Field

survey/report

3. CSM-CERES-Rice model testing

(SIM)

Process-oriented & deterministic
Laboratory works
Calibration & Evaluation at field

level

Response to major inputs
1. Seasonal Weather

Forecast (SWF)

1x1 km
Ensemble of GCMs &

RCMs

Stochastic by nature
Report every month
4. Participatory Data Collection

(Based on SMU)

Site/HH participation
Data on field operations,

resource utilization and yield (OBS)

Cost-Benefit Analysis
5. Seasonal Crop (Rice and Cassava) Yield

Forecast System: ThaiSCYFS]

Reporting & Consultation

Reports as

3-6 months in advance

f harvesting

SMU

OBS SIM

Team’s Mission for SCY4cast by 2020

SLIDE 8

Data ¡processing: ¡SIM ¡& ¡OBS ¡ Field ¡monitoring ¡

Observed ¡yield ¡map ¡ Simulated ¡yield ¡map ¡

Minimum Data Set For Simulation models Crop growth & Developmental stage, pest incident, stress reports Initial soil conditions Weather data monitoring/ storing

MWCropDSS ¡& ¡ DSSAT ¡model ¡

Harves\ng ¡plan ¡ Fer\lizer/irriga\on ¡schedule/plan ¡

Harves\ng ¡ Plan ¡ Check ¡ Ac\on ¡ Do ¡

Plan\ng ¡schedule ¡maps/plan ¡

Variety map

Next ¡season/Prescrip\on ¡maps ¡ ¡ to ¡improve ¡last ¡year ¡situa\ons ¡ Yield ¡map, ¡ Pollu\ons, ¡ ¡ Emission, ¡ ¡ Returns ¡ etc ¡maps ¡ Farmer’s ¡field ¡map ¡

SLIDE 9

Major ¡rice ¡ecosystems ¡in ¡ASEAN ¡

Bridhikic ¡and ¡Overcamp, ¡2012 ¡

SLIDE 10

SCY4cast: A wisdom-based Seasonal Rice Yield Forecast Teams in ASEAN

Together, we will build the ability to assess rice yields with good results in near-real time via SWFs, Crop Modeling, Field Sampling may have finally been reached!

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