Natural Gas Market Outlook WA Citizens Committee on Pipeline Safety - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Natural Gas Market Outlook WA Citizens Committee on Pipeline Safety March 13, 2014 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR 97068 (503) 344-6637 www.nwga.org NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR 97068 (503) 344-6637 www.nwga.org
NWGA Members:
Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy Kinder Morgan Ruby Pipeline Spectra Energy Transmission TransCanada GTN System Williams NW Pipeline
Traditional Wells Horizontal Drilling
856 854 881 921 897 936 958 950 955 1,057 1,052 1,153 147 147 147 146 141 155 169 169 166 163 159 158 616 687 1,073
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Trillion Cubic Feet
Traditional Coalbed Shale Shale resource not assessed separately
2,384 1,119 1,003
~200
Source: Navigant Consulting, Fall 2012 Gas Market Outlook
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Bcfd
Shale Non-Shale Net LNG Imports
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 Cumulative Gas Consumption, Tcf
North America Supply and Demand
With LNG Exports* Canada Cumulative Consumption US Cumulative Consumption Supply Available at $5.00 or less Supply Available at $4.00 or less
Source: US Energy Information Administration, Canada National Energy Board
Outlook)
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14
Jan-2008 Apr-2008 Jul-2008 Oct-2008 Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010 Jul-2010 Oct-2010 Jan-2011 Apr-2011 Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Jan-2014 Apr-2014 Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016
$/Dth Historic HH Spot NYMEX Futures
Source: U.S. EIA, NYMEX NYMEX: 03/10/2014
Source: EIA 2014 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release – December 2013 $- $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
2012$/Dth
Historic HH Spot Price EIA 2014 AEO (ER) HH Forecast NW Power & Conservation Council HH Forecast NWPCC AECO Forecast NWPCC Sumas Forecast
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014*
Million Dth
PNW Gas Deliveries (source: US EIA, StatCan)
Residential Commercial Industrial Generation
* 2014 Outlook Year 1 Forecast
120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
Million Dth/year Residential Commercial Industrial Power Generation
Plastics Panty hose Paints Photographic film Beer Safety glass laminate Adhesives Solvents Carpeting Insulation Refrigerants Windshield washer fluid Particle board Pigments and dyes Frozen french fries Pool liners Food Packaging Metals and recycling Glass and recycling Bricks Lumber Paper Cardboard Fertilizer Antifreeze Medicines Aircraft parts Chewing gum
Source: EIA Monthly Spot Prices through October, 2013
500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Million Decatherms Annual Demand - Expected Case Accelerated Industrial Accelerated Generation
20
Pipelines
LNG Terminals Kitimat LNG Bradwood Landing Oregon LNG Jordan Cove LNG Storage Facilities Mist Jackson Prairie
Oregon LNG Bradwood Landing LNG Jordan Cove LNG Kitimat LNG