Negotiating a safer climate: where next for the UNFCCC? Andrew Prag - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Expert Group

Negotiating a safer climate: where next for the UNFCCC?

Andrew Prag (OECD)

WPCID 4th meeting 11 April 2013

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Overview

• 1. Emissions and vulnerability to climate change
• 2. The UN climate talks: past and present
• 3. Looking forward: what role for the UNFCCC?

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20 countries

R² = 0.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 Index / percentage Mt CO2 Countries (decreasing emissions) CO2 Mt CO2 %cum Vulnerability Index Vulnerability trend

Breaking down the problem

80%

Data sources: IEA CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, GAIN vulnerability index index.gain.org Note that if all GHG emissions are included, overall picture is similar but country order changers

Vulnerability ratings Cumulative % of world emissions

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Overview

• 1. Emissions and vulnerability to climate change
• 2. The UN climate talks: past and present
• 3. Looking forward: what role for the UNFCCC?

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1972-’90 1992 1994 1997 2001 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2015

New Agreement applicable to all Doha Gateway,KP 2nd period Durban Platform Copenhagen Accord Bali Action Plan agreed Kyoto entry into force Marrakech Accords 2008-12 KP first period Kyoto Protocol signed UNFCCC entry into force UNFCCC signed Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report

The long and arduous journey attempting to tackle global climate change through multilateral negotiations

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What did Doha achieve?

 Kept the show on the road  The Kyoto Protocol limps on (towards retirement)  Negotiations now focused on the Durban Platform  Compensation for “Loss and Damage” formalised

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Overview

• 1. Emissions and vulnerability to climate change
• 2. The UN climate talks: past and present
• 3. Looking forward: what role for the UNFCCC?

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In Conclusion…..

UNFCCC

Mitigation action International co-operation

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What has the UNFCCC achieved in practice?

 We know in detail what we’re dealing with: IPCC and country-level inventories  It has made the world’s biggest collective problem a serious diplomatic issue for many countries  It was the catalyst for market-based carbon pricing systems (EU ETS, Australia,…)  Through the Clean Development Mechanism, it brought emissions accounting to industry in developing countries  We have the concept of climate finance for mitigation and adaptation, and vehicles such as the Green Climate Fund

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And what has the UNFCCC NOT achieved?

 The legally-binding nature of Kyoto Protocol was arguably ineffective – countries complied when they wanted to  It has not yet delivered an instrument that is “applicable to all”, let alone applied by all  It has not yet achieved a scaled-up carbon market under UNFCCC governance  The multilateral process is vulnerable to political blockading and brinkmanship  Can we identify an impact on the global emissions trajectory to date?

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Bali Action Plan agreed Kyoto Protocol signed UNFCCC signed Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report

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Why we still need the UNFCCC

 This is a collective-action problem and we need a collective-action solution at the heart of it  Even without top-down targets and timetables, multilateralism can provide transparency, scrutiny and international peer-pressure on domestic policy-making  Visibility and profile of the international process can provide democratic leverage domestically  International linking of market approaches remains a cost-effective ideal, and UNFCCC can act as a standard- setter to facilitate that goal  Channels for funding adaptation and protecting the most vulnerable

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Thank you

andrew.prag@oecd.org www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg