NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENT Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University CONTENTS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Seventh AIM International Workshop Program NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, 15-17 March 2002

NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Yuzuru Matsuoka Kyoto University

NEW MODEL DEVELOPMENT

CONTENTS

• 1. Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM/Emission AIM/Impact Other AIM models

• 2. AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM

3. Summary

Focuses of modeling activity in year 2001-2002

• Organization, Dissemination of developed

model for national and regional climate action plans as well as wider comprehensive environmental policy ⇒ AIM / COUNTRY， AIM/DATABASE

• Extension of modeling perspectives from

climate policy to more wider points of view, and Increasing the applicability to various policy processes ⇒ from AIM/IMPACT to AIM/ECOSYSTEM

Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM/MATERIAL AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/LAND AIM/WATER AIM/AGRI AIM/VEG AIM/HEALTH Etc. AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/TOPDOWN AIM/CGE/GLOBAL AIM/CGE/ASIA AIM/LOCAL ALICE AIM-CMB AIM-SUBsidy

AIM-COUNTRY models AIM/CGE/ ECOSYSTEM

AIM next generation model

AIM/Inventory Activity Household production approach Bottom-up approach of disaggregated environmental technologies

AIM/Database AIM/Database AIM/TREND AIM/Emission AIM/Impact AIM/ENDUSE AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation AIM/ENDUSE Obsolete (First Generation) National CO2 reduction program Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model, Constant lifetime cohort, Optimum subsidy

• ption

Fortran program named "engd" AIM/LOCAL Bottom up, end-use energy-emission model, simple cohort structure, coupling with air pollutant emission inventories ALICE:Ancillary-effects estimating model for local governments to improve their comprehensive environment Device combined version (CMB): Able to treat combined input and output services, e.g. Power generation and secondary use of electricity Subsidy version (SUB) : optimum subsidy to reduce gas emission AIM/TOPDOWN Obsolete but Operating (First Generation) Long-term GHG emission projections from the point

• f energy supply and

demand equilibrium Based on the ASF/ER model, Backcasting ability from emission and concentration targets, Coupling with the enduse model in near-term projection Fortran program AIM/CGE/GLOBAL Operating Economic assessment of global GHG reduction, EMF14/19 comparative study Global multi-regional CGE model with energy resource sectors and interface to bottom-up model GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP4, IEA energy balance table AIM/CGE/ASIA Developing Environmental and Economic assessment of Global Environmental Policy, focuses on Asia- Pacific region AIM-COUNTRY APEIS Global multi-regional CGE model with economic goods/bads, natural resource sectors and interface to bottom-up model GAMS/MPSGE, GTAP5, IEA energy balance table, Commodity statistics, Detailed database of natural resources AIM/Database Linkage of CO2, SO2, NO2, SPM reduction program, National/Regional scale, Coupling reduction program with Emission Inventory AIM-COUNTRY APEIS MS access interface and GAMS main program, Supported with AIM/Database Successor of AIM/ENDUSE, Operating

AIM/Emission family

Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM/MATERIAL AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/LAND AIM/WATER AIM/AGRI AIM/VEG AIM/HEALTH Etc. AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/TOPDOWN AIM/CGE/GLOBAL AIM/CGE/ASIA AIM/LOCAL ALICE AIM-CMB AIM-SUBsidy

AIM-COUNTRY models AIM/CGE/ ECOSYSTEM

AIM next generation model

AIM/Inventory Activity Household production approach Bottom-up approach of disaggregated environmental technologies

AIM/Database AIM/Database AIM/TREND AIM/Emission AIM/Impact AIM/ENDUSE AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/Impact family

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation AIM/IMPACT Climate change impact assessment with detailed process model, surface water cycle, crop productivity, vegetation, health Grid or basin level hydrological model, crop model, vegetation model, malaria model. Interface with GCM/RegCM output Operating and Developing (First Generation) Global assessment Linkage with World crop trade model GRASS, ArcGIS FORTRAN, C Developing Country impact assessment AIM-COUNTRY Packaged and Disseminate version of global version IDRISI, FORTRAN,C, VB, AIM/Database AIM/ECOSYSTEM Developing Assessment of global environmental changes and their counter-measures Assembly of rather independent modules LAND, WATER, AGRI, ENV, HEALTH, VEG, Exploratory models for next generation AIM activities GRASS, ArcGIS FORTRAN, C, GAMS Global/Regional version Country/Local version

Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM/MATERIAL AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/LAND AIM/WATER AIM/AGRI AIM/VEG AIM/HEALTH Etc. AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/TOPDOWN AIM/CGE/GLOBAL AIM/CGE/ASIA AIM/LOCAL ALICE AIM-CMB AIM-SUBsidy

AIM-COUNTRY models AIM/CGE/ ECOSYSTEM

AIM next generation model

AIM/Inventory Activity Household production approach Bottom-up approach of disaggregated environmental technologies

AIM/Database AIM/Database AIM/TREND AIM/Emission AIM/Impact AIM/ENDUSE AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

Other Models which enlarge the Perspectives of AIM activity

Model Situation Object Characteristics Implementation Prospect AIM/MATERIAL (RECYCLE) Operating , Applying to Japan, India and China Economic assessment of nation environmental policy, focused on CO2 reduction and waste recycling APEIS One country CGE model with material balance and interface to environmental technology model GAMS/MPSGE MS ACCESS MS EXCEL Coupling with bottomup engineering models, Coupling with Waste/GHG/Water balances and Household production approach AIM/TREND Operating, Distributing Communicating platform for constructing Asia- Pacific regional environmental outlook, ECO-ASIA, APEIS, GEO3,AIM-COUNTRY Country econometric

• model. Assembly
• f Energy, Water,

Agriculture and

• ther modules

Visual Basic for MS Excel, National and International statistics AIM/Database Developing to an econometrical tool (ATPL/ATML) in AIM/Database and AIM/CGE/ASIA

Roadmap of the AIM family

AIM/MATERIAL AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/LAND AIM/WATER AIM/AGRI AIM/VEG AIM/HEALTH Etc. AIM/IMPACT Global version Country version AIM/TOPDOWN AIM/CGE/GLOBAL AIM/CGE/ASIA AIM/LOCAL ALICE AIM-CMB AIM-SUBsidy

AIM-COUNTRY models AIM/CGE/ ECOSYSTEM

AIM next generation model

AIM/Inventory Activity Household production approach Bottom-up approach of disaggregated environmental technologies

AIM/Database AIM/Database AIM/TREND AIM/Emission AIM/Impact AIM/ENDUSE AIM/CLIMATE

Atmospheric model UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model GCM,RegCM interface

AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM Overview

Approach： Soft merge of a Top-down (Story-line + Macroeconomic ) model and Bottom-up ( technology models, mechanistic models, case studies) approach Objects: Integrated Assessment of Economic and Sustainable Development with Environmental protection, Adaptation to climate change Scale : Country ( Asia and Pacific) , Provincial ( China and India ), Regional ( Rest of the World ) Present ( 1971-2000), Near future (2021-2050), Long-term (2071- 2100), Yearly / Daily

Modules of AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM

CGE (Economic market: Top down, Productions, Capitals, Income, Trades) ENERGY (Energy technology and resource: bottom-up process type, Resource,Supply and consumption) LAND (Land-use: Spatially distributed, Land-use allocation, degradation, GHG emission and sink) HYDRO (Hydrology : spatially distributed, ET, Soil moisture, Snow depth, Drought index VEG (Vegetation: Spatially distributed, Potential vegetation, Dynamic vegetation) WATER ( Water Supply and Demand: Spatially distributed, Intake, Consumption, Water infrastructure) AGRI (Foods and Agriculture: bottom-up process type, spatially distributed, Agricultural production potential, Crops / Livestock / Wood Demand and Supply ) ENV (Environmental Pressure and counter-measure : spatially distributed , GHGs, Atmospheric and water pollutants, Wastes) POP (population: Total, Age distribution, Life length, TFR etc.) HEALTH ( Health impacts : Health impact models, Environmental burden of disease, Health Service)

AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM AIM/CGE/ECOSYSTEM MODULES AND THEIR LINKS MODULES AND THEIR LINKS

OCEAN

Energy and carbon budget

• f Ocean

HYDRO

Surface water balance Routing module

WATER

Supply infrastructures demand

ENERGY

Energy technology and resources

CLIMATE

Radiation, Energy balance, Temperature and Sea level rise

AGRI

Production and Demand

LAND

Land-use allocation and GHGs emission

CGE

Supply and demand equilibrium Of goods, energy, water, land and labor

VEG

Vegetation dynamics

POP

Population, Fertility and Mobility

HEALTH

Health impacts of Environmental Change

ENV

Environmental Pressure and counter-measure

CYCLE

Chemistry of GHGs

AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/ECOSYSTEM AIM/EMISSION AIM/EMISSION AIM/CLIMATE AIM/CLIMATE

• Multi-regional, multi sector CGE model
• Sectors: Goods and service production, Resource

supply, Consumers, Public service

• Markets : Capital/Resources: Goods, Capital,

Energy, Water, Lands

• Products (Goods/Bads): Industrial and

Agricultural products, Energy, Water, Pollutants, Wastes

• Sequential equilibrium
• Hybrid linkage with bottom-up modules

The CGE module

(Extension of AIM/CGE/GLOBAL,ASIA)

Coupling of the CGE and bottom- up technology based modules

• Energy Supply, transformation and demands

(Technology) ←ENERGY

• Household (Final consumption, Labor supply,

Life-style, Time budget, Education) ←POP, WATER

• Environmental Services (Air and water loads

reduction technology ←ENV

• Crop production

←LAND

• Water supply and demand

←WATER

• Land-use allocation

←LAND

The ENERGY (energy technology) module

• Country (regional) base
• Based on AIM/LOCAL GAMS program
• Stylized Industrial and Household Processes
• Including default devices lists
• Including the Stackelberg Problem
• Extension to

generalized process description of Energy and Materials ( merging with AIM/MATERIAL)

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module

(Transformation sector)

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Iron and Steel Sector)

Sc r a p ir

• n

E le c tr ic a r c fur na c e Dir e c t r e d uc tio n fur .

［電気炉］

Ir

• n o r

e

［直接還元炉］ ( 海綿鉄）

He a r th fur na c e

［平炉］

Sme lting r ed uc tio n fur . Cr ud e ste e l Ca sting Sla b Sinte r ing fur na c e Sinte r

［溶融還元炉］ ( 粗鋼） ［鋳造］ ［焼結炉］ ( 焼結鉱）

Ro lling / Anne a ling Ste e l p r

• d uc ts

Co king Co a l Co ke o v e ns Co ke o v e n c o ke B la st fur na c e Pig ir

• n

B a sic o xyge n fur na c e

［圧延／焼結］ ［コークス炉］ ( コークス） ［高炉］ ( 銑鉄） ［転炉］

F ur na c e ga s

( 炉ガス）

E le c tir ic ty F lo w c o ntr

• l

F ue ls fo r c o mb ustio n F ule s He a t

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Aluminum Sector)

Sc r a p Aluminium Se c o nd a r y Sme lte r

( スクラップ） ［再生地金製造］

B a uxite Alumina Pr

• d uc tio n

Alumina (Al

Pr ima r y Sme lte r Aluminium Ca sting Aluminium Pr

• d uc tio n

( ボーキサイト） ［アルミナ製造］ ( アルミナ） ［新地金製造］ ( アルミニウム） ［圧延］ ( アルミニウム製品）

E le c tir ic ty F ue ls He a t

E xp o r t G r ind ing (Dr y Pr

• c e ss)

L ime sto ne a fte r gr ind ing B a king (Dr y Pr

• c e ss)

L ime sto ne

Clinke r G r ind ing Clinke r a fte r gr ind ing Mixing Po r tla nd c e me nt G r ind ing (We t Pr

• c e ss)

L ime sto ne a fte r gr ind ing B a king (We t Pr

• c e ss)

B la st fur na c e Sla g

G r ind ing B F sla g a fte r gr ind ing Mixing B la st fur na c e c e me nt

F ly a sh G r ind ing F ly a sh a fte r gr ind ing Mixing F ly a sh c e me nt

O the r a d d itiv e s G r ind ing O the r s a fte r gr ind ing Mixing O the r c e me nt

F lo w c o ntr

• l

Ce me nt

E le c tir ic ty F ue ls He a t

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Cement Sector)

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Paper and Pulp Sector)

Wa ste Pa p e r B le a c hing Wa ste Pa p e r

（古紙） ［離解・除塵］ ［脱墨・漂白］ （古紙）

Chip Pr e he a te r Re fina r y B le a c hing Me c ha nic a l p ulp Pa p e r ma king Pa p e r p r

• d uc ts

（チップ） ［予熱行程］ ［精製行程］ ［漂白行程］ （機械パルプ） （紙製品）

Co o king B le a c hing Che mic a l p ulp

［蒸解］ ［漂白］ （化学パルプ）

L iq uo r Re c o v e r y B la c k L iq uo r

［回収］ （黒液）

E le c tir ic ty F ue ls B

• ile r

Ste a m ［ボイラ］ （蒸気）

蒸解：木釜，洗浄，未晒精選

B la c k L iq uo r B

• ile r

回収：エバポレーター，苛性化，石灰焼成

［黒液ボイラ］

晒：晒，晒精選，晒薬品製造

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Petrochemical Industry Sector)

O ff ga s E thyle ne Po lye thyle ne d e v ic e Po lye thyle ne

( オフガス) ( エチレン) ( ポリエチレン)

Na p htha E thyle ne p la nt E thyle ne E thyle ne VCM d e v ic e Vinyl c hno r id e

( エチレン) ( エチレン) ( 塩化ビニルモノ マー)

Pr

• p yle ne

E thyle ne SM d e v ic e Styr e ne mo no e r

( プロピレン) ( エチレン) ( スチレンモノ マー)

B

• B

(C4) fr a c tio n Pr

• p yle ne

Po lyp r

• p yle ne

d e v ic e Po ly- p r

• p yle ne

( B

• B

留分) ( プロピレン) ( ポリプロピレン)

Cr a c ke d o il E thyle ne O the r s d e v ic e O the r s

( 分解油) ( エチレン)

O ff ga s Pr

• p yle ne

( オフガス) ( プロピレン)

Na tur a l ga s E thyle ne p la nt E thyle ne E le c tir ic ty F ue ls He a t

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module Energy system in passenger transport (left) and freight transport (right)

Pa sse nge r Ca r s T r a fic v o lume

• f Pa ss. Ca r

s T r uc ks T r a fic v o lume

• f tr

uc ks B use s T r a fic v o lume

• f b use s

Ra ilr

• a d

T r a fic v o lume

• f r

a ilr

• a d

Ra ilr

• a d

T r a fic v o lume

• f r

a ilr

• a d

Ship s T r a fic v o lume

• f ship s

Ship s T r a fic v o lume

• f ship s

Air T r a fic v o lume

• f a ir

Air T r a fic v o lume

• f a ir

E le c tir ic ty E le c tir ic ty F ue ls F ue ls

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module (Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Sectors

Pump Ir r iga tio n F e lling / Co nv e yo r L

• gging

( 灌漑) ( 伐採)

T r a c te r F a r n la nd p r e p a r a tio n F ishing b o a t F ishing

( 耕耘) ( 漁獲)

Mo to r T hr e shing

( 脱穀)

B

• ile r

G r e e nho use

( 温室)

E le c tir ic ty F ue ls

Stylized Energy Processes in the ENERGY module Energy system Residential (left) and commercial (right) sectors

Co o le r Co o ling Ho t w a te r sup p ly Ho w Wa te r Air c o nd itio ne r Co o ksto v e Co o king Sto v e Wa r ming L ight L ighting F a n he a te r Re fr ige r a to r Re fr ige r a to r Pur c ha se d he a t T e le v isio n T e le v isio n F a n F a n O the r s O the r s E le c tir ic ty F ue ls Hea t Co o le r Co o ling Ho t w a te r sup p ly Ho w Wa te r Air c o nd itio ne r Co o ksto v e Co o king Sto v e Wa r ming L ight L ighting F a n he a te r Co mp ute r Co mp ute r Pur c ha se d he a t F a n F a n E le c tir ic ty F ue ls Hea t

H Y D R O ( H y d r

• l
• g

y ) a n d W A T E R m

• d

u l e

• Input from CLIMATE module of climate
• Calculate Evapo-transpiration, Soil moisture,

Snow condition, Surface runoff, water routing

• Base of other ecosystem/impact modules

HYDRO

Surface water balance Routing module

WATER

Supply infrastructures and demand

AGRI

Production and Demand

VEG

Vegetation dynamics

LAND

Land-use allocation

CGE

Supply and demand equilibrium

C G E m

• d

u l e AGRI module

Demand for primary products

WATER

Water Supply and Demand: Intake, Consumption, Water infrastructure

WATER

Water Supply and Demand: Intake, Consumption, Water infrastructure

HYDRO

Hydrology :ET, Soil moisture, Snow depth, Drought index

HYDRO

Hydrology :ET, Soil moisture, Snow depth, Drought index

VEG

Vegetation : Potential vegetation and Dynamic vegetation

VEG

Vegetation : Potential vegetation and Dynamic vegetation

LAND grid-based

The LAND module

• Food, timber and biomass

demand

• Land requirement and supply
• Expansion, reallocation and

abandonment of cultivated land

• Vegetation dynamics

POP (Population) Module

• Cohort component model
• Fertility model
• Mortality Model (Epidemiological transition)
• Internal Migration Model
• Coupling with HEALTH module

H E A L T H( H e a l t h i m p a c t s ) m

• d

u l e

Environment related diseases

Climate Change: Malaria, Dengue, Schistosomiasis, Heat & Cold stroke Outdoor and Indoor pollution: Lead, Acute and Chronic respiratory diseases Water pollution: Diarrhoeal, Arsenic, Cholera

ENV module

Emitter-Accepter relation Pollutant transports Environmental Load Reduction calculation Water and wastewater facilities

Process models

• f health impacts

by environmental change

Malaria model Dengue model

• Schisto. Model

Heat stress model Dose-Response function

Burden of Disease calculation

A simulation of Malaria epidemic potential AIM/HEALTH

A simulation of Dengue epidemic potential AIM/HEALTH

The VEG (vegetation) module

Vegetation Phenology

Time step: Daily By Plant Functional Type

Vegetation Dynamics

Time step: Annual By Grid cell

• Tissue turnover and allocation
• Light competition
• Mortality
• Establishment
• PFT environmental constraints

Nutrient cycle: N and C Soil

• Process-oriented

formulations of biogeochemical fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics

• Establishment,

Productivity and Competition for resources, Growth, Disturbance and Mortality.

• Plant Functional

Types (PFTs) as basic units

A recent result of DGVM simulation suggests a strong CO2 source from vegetation change with global warming

Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. & Totterdell, I. J. Nature 408, 184–187 (2000).

Climate change effect on NPP Climate change effect on NPP

Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL

(preliminary calculation by AIM/VEG)

Climate change effect on runoff Climate change effect on runoff

Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL Emission:IS92a, Climate:HADCM2_SUL

(preliminary calculation with AIM/VEG)

Focuses of modeling activity in year 2001-2002

• AIM/COUNTRY，

AIM／Database : In order to

• rganize and to distribute AIM models for

national and regional climate action plans as well as wider comprehensive environmental policies

• From AIM/IMPACT to AIM/ECOSYSTEM : In
• rder to broaden modeling perspectives

from climate policy to more wider points of view, and increase the applicability to various policy processes

A I M A s i a n

• P

a c i f i c I n t e g r a t e d M

• d

e l A L I C E A n c i l l a r y

• e

f f e c t s e s t i m a t i n g m

• d

e l f

• r

l

• c

a l g

• v

e r n m e n t s t

• i

m p r

• v

e t h e i r c

• m

p r e h e n s i v e e n v i r

• n

m e n t A P E I S A s i a

• P

a c i f i c E n v i r

• n

m e n t a l I n n

• v

a t i

• n

S t r a t e g y P r

• j

e c t A T M L / A T P L A I M T r e n d M a c r

• /

P r

• g

r a m L a n g u a g e Ｃ Ｇ Ｅ C

• m

p u t a b l e G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m M

• d

e l G A M S G e n e r a l i z e d A l g e b r a i c M

• d

e l i n g S y s t e m M P S G E M a t h e m a t i c a l P r

• g

r a m m i n g S y s t e m f

• r

G e n e r a l E q u i l i b r i u m a n a l y s i s I m p

• r

t a n t A c r

• n

y m s a n d A b b r e v i a t i

• n

s t

• c
• m

m u n i c a t e w i t h A I M t e a m