OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 25, 2017 Fiscal Year Fiscal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 25, 2017 Fiscal Year Fiscal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 25, 2017 Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 OCTOBER Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364

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SLIDE 1

OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW

SEPTEMBER 25, 2017

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SLIDE 2

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573)

OCTOBER MAY

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Beginning Balance 5,024,009 4,215,109 3,174,984 2,375,928 343,829 + Revenue 27,806,894 28,322,328 28,933,731 29,236,856 29,694,827 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(28,615,794) (29,362,453) (29,732,786) (31,268,955) (32,866,337) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (808,900) (1,040,126) (799,055) (2,032,099) (3,171,510) Ending Balance 4,215,109 3,174,984 2,375,928 343,829 (2,827,681)

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 3

Higher growth rates at reappraisal than had been anticipated

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Transportation and base per pupil cuts

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SLIDE 4

Lower than expected renewal

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 5

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Prior Year Actual/Estimated Enrollment (October Count) 2,455 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 Projected Changes to Prior Year Enrollment Net All-Grade Level Mobility Factor (Change) to Prior Year 70 72 69 72 72 Net Aggregate Manual Adjustments to Mobility Factor

  • 23

New Kindergartners In 158 130 158 142 170 Loss of Seniors from Prior Year

  • 208
  • 212
  • 201
  • 230
  • 202

Net Change in Outgoing and Incoming Pupils

  • 50
  • 82
  • 43
  • 88
  • 32

Current Year Estimated Enrollment (Simulated October Count) 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 2,492 District Head Count Grade K 158 130 158 142 170 1 162 180 148 180 161 2 182 172 191 157 191 3 176 188 178 198 162 4 181 186 198 188 209 5 178 186 192 204 194 6 184 185 193 199 212 7 196 185 186 194 200 8 195 202 190 191 200 9 202 200 207 195 196 10 228 200 198 205 193 11 198 227 199 197 204 12 212 201 230 202 200 Total Can Differ by Rounding 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 2,492 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

  • 0.12%
  • 0.41%

1.06%

  • 0.65%

1.63%

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 6
  • Prev. 5-Year

PROJECTED

5-Year

  • Avg. Annual

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

  • Avg. Annual

Change

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Change

Revenue: 1.010-Real Estate 4.49% 1.05% 2.28% 1.50% 1.82% 1.64% 1.66% 1.020-Public Utility 13.19% 2.54% 3.53% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.31% 1.030-Income Tax n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.035-State Funding 4.58% 2.87%

  • 1.07%

0.00%

  • 0.01%

0.02% 0.36% 1.040-Restricted Aid 127.25%

  • 17.21%

1.68% 1.99% 1.12% 1.16%

  • 2.25%

1.045-Restr Federal SFSF

  • 100.00%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.050-Property Tax Alloc

  • 1.87%

1.62% 2.34% 1.49% 1.85% 1.82% 1.82% 1.060-All Other Operating 17.32% 15.76%

  • 10.28%

12.51%

  • 5.70%

0.07% 2.47% 1.070-Total Revenue 4.36% 1.79% 1.27% 1.47% 1.31% 1.34% 1.44%

Previous five years includes the increase from the 2013 levy

Revenue Overview

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 7

1.035 - Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid Revenue Detail Note GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SD Percentage of Total Revenue: Actual Projected 23.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Core Aid Funding Core Funding Per Pupil $6,000 $6,010 $6,020 $6,100 $6,200 $6,300 State Share of Core Funding 31.7% 33.4% 33.4% 29.2% 29.2% 27.3% Square Miles Transportation Aid 597,207 $460,143 $409,890 $363,041 $359,445 $340,025 Guarantee % Based on the 2nd Year of the Prior Biennium 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Transitional Aid Guarantee $0 $0 $0 $669,891 $596,538 $816,914

FY14 Total ADM

2,498.92 Growth Cap 1.075 1.030 1.030 1.050 1.050 1.050

FY16 Total ADM

2,441.73 Maximum Capped Amount 6,546,254 6,376,022 6,526,698 6,618,111 6,618,111 6,618,111

FY17 Final Funding

6,214,002 $ Final Funding Amount 6,214,134 6,362,400 6,330,463 6,332,504 6,333,686 6,334,915

State Aid

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 8

2017 Reappraisal

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2%

  • 0.6%

2010

  • 1.4%

0.1%

  • 1.5%

2011 8.5%

  • 0.6%

1.0% 2012

  • 0.2%
  • 0.6%
  • 8.6%

2013

  • 1.1%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2015 0.5% 0.0%

  • 0.4%

2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 2017

  • 6.0%

15.7% 7.0% 2018

  • 0.3%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2019

  • 0.3%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.7% 2021

  • 0.3%
  • 0.5%
  • 0.5%
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SLIDE 9
  • Prev. 5-Year

PROJECTED

5-Year

  • Avg. Annual

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

  • Avg. Annual

Change

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Change

Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 1.52% 4.86% 3.54% 4.18% 3.82% 3.50% 3.98% 3.020-Benefits 4.60% 3.31%

  • 3.36%

6.79% 8.06% 7.94% 4.55% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.68% 0.83% 2.91% 4.36% 3.37% 2.78% 2.85% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 1.00% 18.37% 2.82% 2.84% 2.86% 2.89% 5.96% 3.050-Capital Outlay

  • 2.34%

76.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15.23% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 0.00% 60.92%

  • 63.01%
  • 2.27%
  • 2.48%
  • 1.62%
  • 1.69%

4.300-Other Objects 10.50%

  • 0.98%

1.92% 1.92% 1.92% 1.92% 1.34% 4.500-Total Expenditures 2.94% 4.75% 0.75% 4.73% 4.73% 4.48% 3.89%

Includes impact of 2013 RIF New Energy Lease-Purchase/Old Energy Project

Expenditure Overview

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Impact of insurance renewal

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SLIDE 10

Summary of Labor Agreement

  • Three-year agreement
  • Base salary increases of 2%, 2%, and 2.25%
  • Health insurance switches from a PPO to a two-tier High

Deductible Health Care program with Health Savings Accounts (H.S.A) effective 1/1/2018

  • District contributions to the H.S.A
  • Cost sharing of premium increases upon renewals 1/1/19 and 1/1/20

through reduced district H.S.A contributions

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 11

The October Forecast and Levy Needs

  • The financial outlook has improved since the May 2017 forecast
  • Not enough improvement to change timing for a new levy
  • State budget cuts have hurt long-term trend
  • The district is anticipating a new levy during the five-year forecast

period

  • Cash balances are expected to approach zero in the 2020/2021 school year

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 12

Levy Update

  • Based on the forecast, we are anticipating to be on the ballot in

2018 for new operating money

  • The 1.7 mill PI levy expires in 2019 and can be renewed
  • The 0.5 mill maintenance levy expires in 2019 and cannot be

renewed

  • The bond millage rate is expected to be reduced in 2019 by 0.45

mills due to the 2015 bond refunding

  • Newark/Granville Community Authority special assessments start

ending in 2021

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 13

Levy Strategy

  • Based on various economic factors, a new earned income tax is

being strongly considered

  • Move inside millage from operating to PI to create a permanent PI

funding source and to bolster PI resources

  • Allow the PI levy to expire
  • The elimination of the PI levy, the 0.5 mill maintenance levy, and the bond millage would

cause overall school property tax millage rates to drop by about 2.25 mills, about a five percent reduction in school property taxes

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 14

Why an Earned Income Tax?

Household Income Range Senior Percent

  • f Matched

Households Less than $30,000 51.5% $30,000 - $50,000 48.0% $50,000 - $70,000 37.2% $70,000 - $85,000 29.9% $85,000 - $100,000 26.6% $100,000 - $125,000 22.3% $125,000 - $150,000 24.8% $150,000 - $175,000 14.6% $175,000 - $200,000 18.3% $200,000 - $250,000 17.8% $250,000 and greater 11.4% Matched Parcels 26.1%

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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Matching state tax returns filed in April 2015 with homeowners in Granville—26% of homeowners are senior citizens, which jumps to about 50% of those with household incomes below $50,000. In general,

  • lder homeowners who have been in their current

homes for longer periods of time were most adversely impacted by the 2017 reappraisal

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SLIDE 15

Household Income Range % of Total Matched Households Number of Personal Exemptions Personal Exemptions per Return Estimated

  • Avg. Earned

Income Less than $30,000 7.2% 319 1.6 $13,858 $30,000 - $50,000 6.3% 341 1.9 $33,090 $50,000 - $70,000 9.1% 583 2.3 $47,556 $70,000 - $85,000 8.7% 604 2.5 $59,756 $85,000 - $100,000 8.8% 720 3.0 $71,819 $100,000 - $125,000 13.8% 1,178 3.1 $86,853 $125,000 - $150,000 11.7% 1,051 3.3 $106,123 $150,000 - $175,000 7.9% 717 3.3 $125,536 $175,000 - $200,000 5.5% 527 3.4 $145,435 $200,000 - $250,000 7.1% 648 3.3 $164,504 $250,000 and greater 13.7% 1,285 3.4 $356,977

Why an Earned Income Tax?

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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As earned incomes go up, the number

  • f personal exemptions increase, an

indication of presence of “users” of the Granville Schools

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SLIDE 16

Why an Earned Income Tax?

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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Residential School Tax Rates State Median: 30.58 Granville: 52.52 48 districts have higher rates 560 districts have lower tax rates

Residential School Tax Rates LICKING HEIGHTS LSD 53.00 GRANVILLE EVSD 52.52 HEATH CSD 44.85 NEWARK CSD 36.01 LAKEWOOD LSD 35.40 JOHNSTOWN MONROE LSD 34.68 SOUTHWEST LICKING LSD 33.65 NORTHRIDGE LSD ( LICKING COUNTY ) 30.53 LICKING VALLEY LSD 25.20 NORTH FORK LSD 24.55

Business School Tax Rates GRANVILLE EVSD 66.90 LICKING HEIGHTS LSD 51.83 HEATH CSD 45.73 LAKEWOOD LSD 36.99 NEWARK CSD 35.22 JOHNSTOWN MONROE LSD 34.97 SOUTHWEST LICKING LSD 32.92 NORTHRIDGE LSD ( LICKING COUNTY ) 30.65 LICKING VALLEY LSD 27.91 NORTH FORK LSD 24.59

Business School Tax Rates State Median: 35.70 Granville: 66.90 25 districts have higher rates 583 districts have lower tax rates

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SLIDE 17

Levy Options

  • We have considered seven different levy options
  • Goal is to address long-term needs for both operating and capital
  • Two options are laid out here
  • Both address our needs with a single vote
  • The others are more complicated and involve both a new income or

property tax levy plus the renewal of the current PI levy in 2019

  • Both options would be expected to carry the district beyond the

current five-year forecast period

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 18

Levy Options

  • Propose either a 1.25% earned income tax or a 9.25 mill property

tax-the district would first receive money in 2019 under either option

  • Allow the PI levy to expire
  • The elimination of the PI levy, the sunset of 0.5 mill maintenance levy, and the reduction of

bond millage would yield an overall school property tax millage reduction of about 2.25 mills for payments beginning in 2020

  • Move inside millage from operating to PI to create a permanent PI

funding source and to bolster PI resources

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 19

CURRENT

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,694,866 3,010,460 4,404,889 5,953,954 + Revenue 28,491,439 28,374,259 28,068,163 28,345,558 28,679,282 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • 325,800

4,099,650 5,430,000 5,430,000

  • Expenditures

(29,167,339) (29,384,464) (30,773,385) (32,226,493) (33,667,906) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (675,900) (684,405) 1,394,429 1,549,065 441,376 Ending Balance 3,694,866 3,010,460 4,404,889 5,953,954 6,395,330

1.25% INCOME TAX

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573)

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SLIDE 20

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,701,341 5,104,652 7,251,133 7,968,381 + Revenue 28,497,914 28,387,100 28,081,005 28,032,599 28,366,323 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • 2,400,675

4,838,862 4,911,141 4,983,116

  • Expenditures

(29,167,339) (29,384,464) (30,773,385) (32,226,493) (33,667,906) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (669,425) 1,403,311 2,146,482 717,248 (318,467) Ending Balance 3,701,341 5,104,652 7,251,133 7,968,381 7,649,914

CURRENT 9.25 MILL PROPERTY TAX

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573)

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SLIDE 21

Final Thoughts

  • 2018 is our only opportunity for an earned income tax
  • Past 2018, the collection ramp-up is too slow to meet our cash needs
  • Delaying the property tax until 2019 to coincide with the 2.25 mill

reduction would considerably shorten the length of time the new levy would last

  • Most any other option would require a vote for new money and a

vote to renew the expiring permanent improvement levy

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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