of Washingtons Public School Students PRESENTATION TO THE BOARD, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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of Washingtons Public School Students PRESENTATION TO THE BOARD, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 02, 2023 39 likes •164 views

The Changing Demographics of Washingtons Public School Students PRESENTATION TO THE BOARD, SEPTEMBER 25, 2012 Mr. Ben Rarick, Executive Director Ms. Linda Drake, Senior Policy Analyst 1 The Washington State Board of Education Forecast of

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The Washington State Board of Education 1

The Changing Demographics

  • f Washington’s Public School

Students

PRESENTATION TO THE BOARD, SEPTEMBER 25, 2012

  • Mr. Ben Rarick, Executive Director
  • Ms. Linda Drake, Senior Policy Analyst
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The Washington State Board of Education 2

Forecast of School Age Population, Age 5 to 17

750,000 850,000 950,000 1,050,000 1,150,000 1,250,000 1,350,000 1,450,000 1,550,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

School Age Population Year

Forecast

By 2025, about 1,265,100 The “Third Wave” of the baby boom starts in 2013 Currently, 1,135,282 Forecast of the State Population, November 2011 Forecast, Forecasting Division, State of Washington Office of Financial Management

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The Washington State Board of Education 3

School Age Population, Race and Ethnicity

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percent Year

Projections of the Percent of School Age (5-19) Population by Race and Ethnicity

Hispanic 2 or more Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaska Native Black White

WA Office of Financial Management November 2011 Forecast of state population by age and sex 2010-2040

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The Washington State Board of Education 4

Where are the students going to be?

Projected Percent Change of School Age Population (ages 5-19) 2010-2025

OFM May 2012 Forecast

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The Washington State Board of Education 5

Percent of children in poverty in Washington State 1997 to 2010

y = 0.2387x - 463.37 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Percent Year

Linear (Series1)

The percent of children under age 18 who live in families with income below the poverty threshold (100% Federal Poverty Guidelines). US Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

If the trend continues, the percent

  • f children

in poverty in 2020 will be about 18.8% Poverty guidelines for or a family of 4: $23,050

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The Washington State Board of Education 6

Children in Poverty in Washington State 2010

Walla Walla Yakima Grant Okanogen Grays Harbor Cowlitz Stevens

* * *

Adams Franklin

* Counties with highest

percent change in student population

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The Washington State Board of Education 7

English Language Learners (ELL)

  • ELL enrollment has increased by 15.4% since 2005-2006
  • 208 primary, non-English languages were represented in the

Transition Bilingual Instruction Program, with Spanish accounting for 67% of ELLs ELL Headcount, October 2010: 92,084, 8.8% of Total Enrollment

OSPI Report to the Legislature, Educating English Language Learners in Washington State 2010-11, December 2011

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The Washington State Board of Education 8

Percent Change of Linguistically Isolated Households*: 1990-2000

Figure by Kirschner, A, for “Work Force Issues for Governing Boards” presented by Menaul, R, Garcia, J, and Phippen, E., the Health Work Force Institute and the Washington State Hospital Association, May 20, 2009.

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The Washington State Board of Education 9

Special Education Students, Age 6-21

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  • 14. Traumatic Brain Injury
  • 13. Autism
  • 12. Communication Disorders
  • 11. Deaf-Blindness
  • 10. Visual Impairments
  • 9. Hearing Impairments
  • 8. Deafness
  • 7. Multiple Disabilities
  • 6. Intellectual Disability
  • 5. Specific Learning Disabilities
  • 4. Health Impairments
  • 3. Orthopedic Impairments
  • 2. Emotional/Behavioral Disability
  • 1. Developmental Delays

Special Education, age 6-21, 2010: 113,758, 11.0% of Total Enrollment (stayed within 1 percentage point for past 8 years)

OSPI Special Education Child County and Placement Data, Federal LRE and Child County Data

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The Washington State Board of Education 10

School Age Population Compared to +65 Population

Age Distribution 2010 Age Distribution Projected for 2020

+65 Population Outnumbers School Age Population +65 Population and School Age Population Approximately Balanced School Age Population Significantly Outnumbers +65 Population

  • Districts with higher proportion of seniors will be challenged to

keep the community engaged in education

  • Support for public school funding is likely to be lower

Figlio, D. and D. Fletcher (2010). Suburbanization, Demographic Change and the Consequences for School Finance

OFM May 2012 Forecast

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The Washington State Board of Education 11

Summary of Data

Steadily growing statewide enrollment

An increasingly diverse student population Many communities will have a larger senior- age population than school-age population

  • Increasing percent of ethnic and racial student groups
  • Increasing percent of ELLs
  • Increasing number of Special Education Students
  • Uneven growth around the state
  • High poverty in some high growth areas
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The Washington State Board of Education 12

Opportunities and Challenges

How should our schools change to meet the changing needs of our students? How do we make the most of what

  • ur students have to offer?