On the efficacy of early talent identification and talent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
On the efficacy of early talent identification and talent development programmes NYSI Youth Athlete Development Conference 2016 Arne Gllich The idea The questions The findings The implications Our Partners The idea of
NYSI Youth Athlete Development Conference 2016
Arne Güllich
The findings
Our Partners
The ‘idea’ of early TID and TDP
Time / age Performance / success
Time / age Performance / success
TID
To select the most promising young talents for the purpose of focusing TDP delivery on these selected few.
TID criteria
siological tests (sometimes relative to bio- logical maturation)
→ Assessment of performance (or components or progress)
The ‘idea’ of early TID and TDP
Time / age Performance / success
TDP To provide conditions and apply inter- ventions to the selected athletes to increase their likelihood of long-term senior international success. TDP interventions
services, nutritional consulting
management, support for educa- tion
Time-economic core
→ Extensive time-economy: Expand available time for training and competition. → Intensive time-economy: Use available time efficiently. Early TDP → expand ‘treatment’ period until expected peak performance age.
The ‘idea’ of early TID and TDP
Time / age Performance / success
Fundamental premises
involvement, together with extended training volume and intensified TDP nurture.
influenced by TDP interventions at a young age.
The ‘idea’ of early TID and TDP
Time / age Performance / success
Research question
Q1 Do characteristics assessed in early TID correlate with later performance?
The 1st
st Question
ion
Predictive accuracy of early TID
Impediments – early TID is very difficult. Junior success is is a poor predictor of
long-term senior success. The Fi Findings
The task
athlete generations. The performer
qualities vary inter- and intra-individually over time. The environment
ments vary inter- and intra-individually over time. Interaction of task, performer, and environment Test quality
Correlation with Junior success at age … senior elite success
Rs
2 = 0.00
11-14 y Rs
2 = 0.01
15-18 y Rs
2 = 0.02
Types of sports cgs game combat art. comp.
0.01 0.01 0.141 0.01 11-14 y 0.02 0.01 0.061 0.00 15-18 y 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.02
Note: 1 negative correlation. Güllich & Emrich, 2012. National squad members, all Olympic sports; n=616.
TID tests may distinguish future higher vs. lower performers. The Fi Findings
→ The problem is in the nature of the subject, rather than deficient scientific sophistication of TID.
Predictive accuracy of early TID
Multi-year longitudinal studies Assignment to (later) higher or lower performing groups
Lidor et al., 2005a
Höner et al., 2015; Le Gall et al., 2008; Lidor et al., 2005b; Till et al., 2015; Vandorpe et al., 2012; Van Yperen, 2009; Zuber et al., 2015; two studies higher: Forsman et al., 2015; Pion et al., 2015
Consider ‘base rate’ (Ackerman, 2013) Assumptions
70% correct assignment → Probability of a positively identified talent to become senior world class is: 0.2%
→ Probability: 0.9% Empirical studies
lich & Emrich, 2005b, 2012; Höner et al., 2015; Hong, 2008; Ljach, 1997; Malina, 2010; Morris et al., 2004; Pion et al., 2015; Sands, 2012; Vaeyens et al., 2009
‘Success rates’ are low in the field.
Time / age Performance / success
Research questions
Q2 Does early involvement in TDP correlate with later senior success? Q3 Does early TID/TDP preferentially select and facilitate developmental participation pat- terns that facilitate long-term development
The 2nd
nd and 3rd rd Question
ion
Involvement and development within TDP
Successful senior athletes were selected later.
Güllich & Emrich, 2012; consistent: Güllich & Emrich, 2005b, 2013, Güllich, 2014a, b
The Fi Findings
Entry age [years] Achieved squad level M
(±SD)
D-squad (regional junior squad) 15.3
(2.2)
C-Squad (national junior squad) 16.8
(2.5)
A-squad (senior world class) 18.9
(3.6)
Developmental participation patterns
The Fi Findings
Senior world class vs. youth success
Moderate main-sport practice intensity
Particularly before start main sport Involvement over more years
Developmental pathways facilitating rapid junior success and long-term international senior success differ.
Early TID and TDP boost early specialization.
Emrich & Güllich, 2016; Güllich & Cobley, 2016
Once involved in TDP → another 95% greater in- crease of specific training through subsequent 3 years.
The Fi Findings
Involvement and development within TDP
Time / age Performance / success
Q4 Does the population of senior elite athletes (a) develop from those selected early and their long-term nurturing, or rather (b) emerge via the course of repeated se- lection, de-selection and replacements through the consecutive age stages?
The 4th
th Question
ion
Involvement and development within TDP
Time / age Performance / success
The 4th
th Question
ion
Involvement and development within TDP
TDP’s are highly permeable at all stages.
Güllich & Emrich, 2012 7-year longitudinal observation, n=4686
The Fi Findings
Involvement and development within TDP
Mean annual Probability of persistence TDP turnover(1) after 3 years after 5 years “Examplary TDP” sport clubs 19% 53% 35% Elite sport schools 28% 37% 19% Soccer youth academies 25% 43% 24% NSOs’ junior squads (7 sports)(2) 44% 16% 5% NSO’s junior squads (soccer) 41% 21% 7%
TDP’s display high annual athlete turnover.
(1) Annual athlete turnover: (number of entries + number of exits) / 2
total members Longitudinal observations over 3 to 13 years.
(2) Athletics, cycling, field hockey, rowing, table tennis, weightlifting, and wrestling.
Güllich et al., 2005; Güllich & Emrich, 2005b, 2012; Güllich, 2014a
The Fi Findings
Involvement and development within TDP
Individual athlete level
up to 2 years.
younger the exit: r=0.92.
Güllich & Emrich, 2012; Güllich, 2014a
Most early selected youngsters do not become successful seniors. Most successful seniors were not selected particularly early.
Güllich, 2014a
100% 9% 100% 14% 20% 91% 100% 100% 3% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
22+ Academy U11 - persistence Academy U13 - persistence A-team entry academy U-teams U15 - persistence A-team entry U-teams
Example soccer The Fi Findings
Involvement and development within TDP
The populations of the early selected and the successful seniors are not identical but are widely disparate popula- tions. → The population of senior top athletes emerges in the course of repeated selection, de-selection, and replace- ments across all age ranges. Q4 Q1 Q2 Future ‘top athletes’ cannot be predicted reliably by way of young-age TID. Particularly early TDP is neither necessary nor beneficial – but correlates negatively with long-term senior success. Q3 Early TID / TDP preferentially selects and further reinforces early specialisation and intensification of specific practice.
The Implication ications
Explanations – the confluence of impediments Questions for practitioners and governing bodies
Promote … Early specialization ↔ Varied experiences Early selection ↔ Later selection Standardized TDP ↔ Individualized TDP Focus on the selected few ↔ Enlarge the ‘talent pool’
The Implication ications
Predicting an athlete’s future potential Superiority of TDP interventions com- pared to conditions outside TDP
leading to early selection and to long-term senior inter- national success
(time, their body, health, enjoyment, education, drop-
apply to the selected? How intensively to nurture them?