(optimization model) Modelling period 2010 2050 12 time segments - - PDF document

Energy system model Technology-oriented, bottom-up optimization model Perfect foresight Objective: Minimization of total costs (optimization model) Modelling period 2010 – 2050 12 time segments (four seasonal and three daily time segments) 31 Regions model (EU 28, Norway, Switzerland, Baden- Württemberg) Interregional exchange processes (electricity, biofuels) Country-specific segmentation of the power generation sector, households, commerce, industry and transport Emissions: Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) Sector-based: public and industrial energy supply, industry, households, GHD, transport, agriculture and refineries

Cost- and Emissionsbalances

Net prod. value Process energy Heated space Population Lighting Communicatio n Mechanical energy Passenger kilometers Ton kilometers

Demand

Coal refinement Refineries Power and heating plants Electricity- and District heat Gas Distribution Industry Commerce Households Transport

Final energy Primary energy

Domestic supply or production Import

Demand Drivers Energy prices, Resource availability

Renewables Hydro power And photovoltaics Agriculture Heat Cooling Heat Cooling Heat Cooling

– evocation to avoid the waterbed effect, calculated against scenario “REF”

main part of this study carried out shortly before publication of the results

• f the coal commission

Comparable pathways until 2025 smiliar end dates Slightly lower capacities in 2030 – 2035 Additional analysis showed no significant differences between pathways

scenarios to achieve climate protection goals scenario with , as KSP90 is achieved in the end use sectors achieve total quantities in the transformation sector After , however, (all power plants shut down) - residual emissions from natural gas power plants and refineries

• f the existing

hard coal-fired power plants is . Use of power plants is also . National protection for the energy industry are nevertheless being . , the expected per decommissioned capacity by the rebound (coal).

Additional generation from renewables (RES) and higher certificate prices (CR) have a in the transformation sector Coal phase out thus a measure Still the years and

Withdrawal from coal (CEX-Q) leads to pronounced use of

• f the use
• f natural gas

(CEX-Q+) leads to natural gas

Stable sales or interim high from 2025 to 2040 (CEX-Q/CEX-Q+) Gradual decline (COP/COP+)

National shift production to neighbouring countries Massive Increasing the ETS price through simultaneous expansion

• f

can provide a more

Long-term with rising trend in 2050 Increasing renewable energy use across all scenarios: Solar & wind and geothermal energy – except when compensated for by CO2 price or accompanying measures Higher in plus scenarios

Not included are the lost revenues due to the certificate revocation externalities e.g. environmental or climate damage not taken into account

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Kosten- und Emissionsbilanzierung

Netto- produktionswert Prozessenergie Beheizte Fläche Bevölkerung Licht Kommunikation Kraft Personen- kilometer Tonnen- kilometer

Nachfrage

Kohleveredelung Raffinerie Kraftwerke und Heizkraftwerke Strom- und Fernwärmevert. Gasverteilung Industrie GHD Haushalte Verkehr

Endenergie Primärenergie

Inlands- Förderung Bzw.

• aufkommen

Import

Nachfragebestimmende Größen Energieträgerpreise, Ressourcenverfügbarkeit

Biomasse- verfügbarkeit Wasserkraft und Photovoltaik Landwirtschaft Wärme Kälte Wärme Kälte Wärme Kälte