Oregon H High gher Educati tion i in a a Western rn C Con - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education

Oregon Higher Education Coordinating Commission

August 9, 2017

Oregon H High gher Educati tion i in a a Western rn C Con

• ntext: D

Data, a, Tren ends, a and S nd Strateg egies es

What is WICHE?

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - WICHE

An interstate compact formed 65 years ago

WICHE’s Role in the Region

• Promotes access and excellence in higher

education for all citizens of the West through:

• Regional collaboration
• Resource sharing
• Sound public policy
• Innovation

Changing Demographics in the West and Oregon

THE GOAL:

High School Graduates in the WICHE Region, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

350,000 450,000 550,000 650,000 750,000 850,000 950,000 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 PROJECTED AL ACTUA L

High School Graduates in the WICHE region by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013- 14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

 American Indian/Alaska Native  Asian/Pacific Islander  Black  Hispanic  White  Nonpublic

772,755

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

830,996 789,092 666,730

Cumulative Change in West’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity

• 50
• 30
• 10

10 30 50 70 2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Thousands

278K H K Hispan anic 86K 6K Asian an/Pac

• ac. I

Isl. 14K 4K Am. m. Ind. d./Alask ska N Native 42K B K Blac ack 54K 4K P Private e School

• ols

356K 6K W Whi hite

+65K

• 39K
• 37K
• 14K

+3K

• 4K

+2K

• 8K

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

High School Graduates in Oregon, 1993-94 to 2012- 13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 ACTUAL PROJECTED

High School Graduates in Oregon by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

 American Indian/Alaska Native  Asian/Pacific Islander  Black  Hispanic  White  Nonpublic

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 32,456 37,262 35,417

Cumulative Change in Oregon’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

5,

5,807 Hi 807 Hispanic ic 1, 1,815 815 Asian/Pac. I . Isl. 498 498 Am. I Ind./ ./Alask ska Native ve 779 779 Black ck 2, 2,918 918 Priv ivate S Schools ls 25, 25,463 463 White te

• 1,000
• 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22 2024-25 2027-28 2030-31

+3,341 +1,177 +1,689 +284

• 107
• 217
• 250

Postsecondary Trends

THE GOAL:

Oregon Undergraduate Enrollment by Institution Type, 2010-2015 (With Percent of Total Enrollment)

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2010-2015

52% 51% 50% 49% 47% 46% 38% 38% 40% 41% 42% 43% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Public, 2-year Total Public, 4-year or above Total Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Oregon Public Institutions of Higher Education by Race/Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 (With Percent Change)

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2005 & 2015.

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 White Hispanic Asian Black American Indian

• r Alaska Native

2005 2015

+161% +11% +43%

• 16%

+3%

Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2015

29% 50% 75% 71% 39% 58% 73% 70% 32% 59% 76% 69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Associate's Colleges Baccalaureate/ Master's Institutions Research/Doctoral Universities Private Four-Year Institutions Oregon WICHE US (no territories)

Oregon Postsecondary Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2002-2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

48% 58% 32% 29%

25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Public, Four-Year Public, Two-Year

Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Four- Year Institutions, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

34% 37% 49% 59% 69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

American Indian/Alaska Native Black Hispanic White Asian

Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Two-Year Institutions, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

19% 19% 29% 30% 34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Black American Indian/Alaska Native Hispanic White Asian

Levels of Education for Oregon Residents, Aged 25-64, 2015

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, PUMS One Year Survey, 2015

78,612 134,680 474,142 549,275 199,135 457,148 251,691 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Less than 9th Gade (4%) 9th to 12th grade, no diploma (6%) High school

• f GED

(22%) Some college, no degree (26%) Associate's degree (9%) Bachelor's degree (21%) Graduate or professional degree (12%)

Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.

32% 34% 37% 37% 38% 38% 41% 41% 42% 42% 42% 44% 45% 47% 49% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Nevada New Mexico Arizona Idaho Wyoming Alaska California Montana South Dakota Utah Oregon Hawaii Washington North Dakota Colorado

Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64, 2005-2015

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.

37% 42% 39% 41%

35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

OREGON WICHE

Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, By Race/Ethnicity, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/.

60% 45% 34% 26% 22% 61% 49% 34% 21% 19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Asian/Pacific Islander White Black American Indian/Alaksa Native Hispanic

Oregon WICHE

Postsecondary Funding and Finance

THE GOAL:

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, WICHE Region, Fiscal 2000-2016

Public FTE Dollars Per FTE

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

$8,754 $9,578 $8,211 $8,713 $8,892 $7,337 $6,394 $7,180 $8,115 $2,099 $2,217 $2,684 $3,269 $2,822 $3,260 $3,974 $4,371 $4,523

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 $000 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 FTE Enrollment Education Revenue

Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, Oregon, Fiscal 2000- 2016

Dollars Per FTE Public FTE $7,626 $7,197 $5,991 $6,105 $6,496 $5,248 $4,214 $4,598 $5,945

$5,213 $4,649 $5,483 $5,682 $5,748 $5,263 $6,656 $8,070 $8,282

• 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 FTE Enrollment Education Revenue

Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

Tuition as a Percent of all Education Revenue, 1991-2016

Dollars Per FTE Public FTE

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

41% 58% 30% 47%

19% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 WICHE OREGON U.S.

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, 2016-17

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$5,055 $5,793 $6,097 $6,301 $6,445 $6,847 $7,118 $7,223 $8,504 $8,537 $8,754 $8,941 $9,114 $9,983 $10,891 $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 WYOMING MONTANA NEW MEXICO UTAH NEVADA IDAHO NORTH DAKOTA ALASKA SOUTH DAKOTA WASHINGTON CALIFORNIA HAWAII OREGON COLORADO ARIZONA

WICHE Average Tuition & Fees, 2016- 17: $8,211

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Two- Year Institutions, 2016-17

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$1,380 $1,896 $2,567 $2,910 $2,942 $3,486 $3,531 $3,626 $3,849 $4,219 $4,249 $4,469 $4,706 $4,808 $6,613 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 CALIFORNIA NEW MEXICO ARIZONA NEVADA WYOMING IDAHO MONTANA UTAH HAWAII COLORADO WASHINGTON NORTH DAKOTA OREGON

• COMM. NO. MARIANAS

SOUTH DAKOTA

Change in Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, from 2006-2016

• 4%

9% 13% 25% 30%

32%

34% 39%

49%

44% 49% 53% 67% 76% 89% 100%

Montana North Dakota Wyoming Alaska Oregon Idaho South Dakota Utah New Mexico Washington WICHE Nevada California Colorado Arizona Hawaii $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 State average cost of tution and fees at public 4-year insitutions 2006-07 2016-17

Percent Increase

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Oregon Public Institutions as a Percent of the Median Household Income in Oregon

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf & U.S. Census Bureau, Table H-8

12% 14% 7% 8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 2005 2008 2011 2014

Public, Four-Year Public, Two-Year

Change in Student Debt from 2005-2015

Adapted from The Institute for College Access and Success, “Project on Student Debt,” http://www.ticas.org/posd/map-state-data- 2015#.

125%

not avail

117% 125% 133% 137% 138% 142% 143% 150% 151% 153% 153% 154% 171% 182% 48% not avail 72% 57% 55% 69% 60% 58% 46% 67% 62% 54% 56% 46% 50% 47% New Mexico North Dakota Idaho Arizona California South Dakota WICHE Washington Nevada Montana Oregon Utah Colorado Wyoming Alaska Hawaii

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 Average Loan Amount of College Graduates 2005 loan amount 2015 loan amount

Percent Increase n Loan Amount 2005-2015 Percent of 2015 Grads with Debt Percent Change in Loan, 2005-2015

Workforce Trends

THE GOAL:

Current Attainment (Associate’s & Above) Versus Future Job Demands

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/StateProjections_6.1.15_agc_v2.pdf.

32% 34% 42% 42% 38% 38% 41% 37% 37% 41% 44% 42% 45% 47% 49% 30% 29% 22% 23% 27% 28% 26% 31% 31% 28% 26% 28% 25% 25% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Nevada New Mexico Utah South Dakota Wyoming Alaska California Arizona Idaho Montana Hawaii Oregon Washington North Dakota Colorado Current Attainment Levels (2015) Shortage of Employees with Necessary Attainment to meet Projected Job Demands (2020) WICHE 2015 Current Attainment: 41% WICHE 2020 Projected Shortage: 28%

Growth Rate of Jobs from 2010 to 2020: Nation

• vs. Oregon

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.

34% 28% 26% 24% 19% 19% 18% 17% 15% 10% 17% 26% 31% 19% 26% 26% 18% 24% 24% 12% 8% 17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Healthcare Support Healthcare Professional and Technical Social Sciences Community Services and Arts STEM Food and Personal Services Managerial and Professional Office Education Sales and Office Support Blue Collar Total Growth Rate from 2010 to 2020

Oregon Nation

Oregon Workforce by Occupation, 2010 and 2020

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Sales and Office Support Blue Collar Food and Personal Services Managerial and Professional Office Education Community Services and Arts STEM Healthcare Professional and Technical Healthcare Support Social Sciences

2010 2015

Employment Change through the Recession and Recovery

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “America’s Divided Recovery 2016” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/americas-divided-recovery/#interactive.

In Sum

• Modest increase in the total number of high

school graduates projected through 2025-26 (2.7%)

• Increasing diversity, but not as much as the rest of the

region

• Fairly steady enrollment increases
• Minority students are enrolling at a higher rate, but

still lower than White students

• Significant variability among the institutions
• Disparities in postsecondary attainment among

certain racial/ethnic groups

In Sum

• Maintaining adequate and sustained funding

is challenging in light of enrollment increases

• Substantial tuition increases at certain institutions
• Highest percentage growth is in healthcare

fields, but the largest numbers are jobs that are often low-wage (sales/office support, blue collar, food and personal services)

Strategies Heading Into the Future

THE GOAL:

Coordinating Board – Primary Functions

1. State-level planning – establish goals and monitor progress 2. Formulate and implement state higher education finance policy 3. Maintain databases and conduct analyses that inform policy 4. Perform necessary regulatory functions (e.g., licensure, approval of missions) 5. Administer state programs (e.g., student financial aid) 6. Take the lead in creating the delivery capacity necessary to effectively and efficiently achieve state goals

40

Source: Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education Commission of the States, May 2016

Coordinating Board – Necessary Capacities

Effective, sustained Policy Leadership requires

• Strength to counter inappropriate political, partisan, institutional,
• r parochial influences
• Capacity and responsibility for articulating and monitoring state

performance objectives for higher education

• Ability to engage civic, business, and public school officials (as well

as state government and higher education leaders) in identifying priority issues and implementing strategies necessary to addressing them

• Recognition of the distinctions between statewide policy and

institutional governance

• Information gathering and analytic capacity to inform the choice of

state goals/priorities and to interpret and evaluate statewide and institutional performance in relation to these goals

41

From NCPPHE “State Capacity for Higher Education Policy Leadership”, July 2005 Source: Dennis Jones, National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, “Presentation to Oregon Higher Education Coordinating Commission,” August 2016.

Unique Challenges for Oregon

• The HECC Board is a relatively new entity

leading in a fiscally competitive environment with a very active legislature. “The most persistent policy gap is that state finance policy is disconnected from public agenda goals for higher education.”

• Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education

Commission of the States, May 2016

Strategies for Moving Forward

• Establish and abide by clear roles and responsibilities

that are distinct from those of the institutions.

• Prioritize strategies that will be most impactful for the

most students within the constrained fiscal environment.

• Implement leadership training for the HECC Board to

ensure competency with necessary capacities

• Seek a trainer that understands the role of a coordinating

board as opposed to the role of a board that oversees only a single institution

Unique Challenges for Oregon

• The state does not have an expanding number
• f students in the pipeline to meet the state’s

aggressive attainment goal.

Strategies for Moving Forward

• Improve and leverage the statewide longitudinal database

to engage in evidence-based decision-making.

• Consider appropriate policy levers that incentivize the

institutions to serve more students better.

• Implement funding strategies that incentivize student success
• Outcomes-based funding at the two-year institutions
• Incentivize institutions to explore and implement evidence-

based strategies that improve student outcomes

• Dual/Concurrent Enrollment
• Guided Pathways
• Redesign of Developmental Education
• Explore comprehensive, proven ways to successfully serve adult

students

In the End…

• Data to inform decisions
• Policy to solve problems
• Political Will to make things

happen

Contact Information

Joe Garcia President jgarcia@wiche.edu www.wiche.edu