Organic Growth Strategy
March – April 2008
Organic Growth Strategy March April 2008 MMK at a Glance - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Organic Growth Strategy March April 2008 MMK at a Glance Geographic Location Financial & Operational Indicators - MMK Group 2004 2005 2006 2007 %, 06/07 Steel produced, mt (1) 11,3 11,4 12,5 13,3 6,4 Steel products output, mt
March – April 2008
1
CAGR 6.9%
559 722 425 332 976 1043 1174 1098 1707 1788 2521 5262 5438 6095 6391 897 1331 1698 1634 1563 843 1647 1542 1579 1483 3 000 6 000 9 000 12 000 1996 2004 2005 2006 2007
Slabs and billets Long products HRC CRC Downstream
Geographic Location Financial & Operational Indicators - MMK Group
Source: US GAAP accounting statements 1.Only MMK’s steel production and the steel products output
Share Equity Structure (1) Growth of the Steel Products Output
10 137 10 201
‘000 tons
5 863
Source: ММК
11 346 12 203
1. Data upon register closing as of 07.03.2008 2. Mr.V.F.Rashnikov, Chairman of the Board of Directors, MMK, is the beneficiary owner of MMK’s
Mintha Holding Limited (2) Fulnek Enterprises Limited (2) Free-float
46.26% 41.01% 12.73%
Moscow Kazakhstan
MMK
SSGPO Suppliers from Kuznetsk Coal Basin Moscow Kazakhstan
MMK
SSGPO Suppliers from Kuznetsk Coal Basin
64,0 2 368 1 444 947 1 232 Comprehensive income, US$ mln 21,6 22,2 17,6 25,5 Net income margin,% 0,164 1 772 28,6 2 342 8 197 12,2 13,3 2007 2004 2005 2006
%, 06/07
Steel produced, mt (1) 11,3 11,4 12,5 6,4 Steel products output, mt (1) 10,1 10,2 11,3 8,0 Revenue, US$ mln 4 829 5 380 6 424 27,6 EBITDA, US$ mln 1 735 1 511 2 005 16,8 EBITDA margin, % 35,9 28,1 31,2 Net income, US$ mln. 1 232 947 1 426 24,3 Earnings per share, US$ 0,125 0,095 0,140 17,1
2
– Sellable products output keeps on growing according to our estimates – Crude steel and slabs output growth to meet the demand from plate mill coming on stream – Significant product changes are bound in 2008 – Preparation for new plate mill commissioning moves on according to schedule Start-up – July 2009 – Realization of the high quality CR rolled steel goes according to schedule Start-up - 2010
– Entry to the strong Turkish market to organically grow in flat rolled steel – This expansion is in line with MMK growth strategy in the fast-growing markets
– Heavy plate and CR automotive rolled steel – Acquisition of Intercos-4 to start a project for downstream processing in order to meet the demand from the booming automotive industry and home appliances production
– Long-term contracts with key raw material suppliers are in place and prove effective – The decision has been made to develop Prioskol iron ore deposit. This will allow to be 100% self-sufficient in iron ore in the long term. – Strategic alliance with Belon company. Supplies of high quality coal to MMK triple. Up to 80% requirement coverage by 2012.
DECLARED STRATEGY OF MMK: PERFORMANCE IN 2007
3
2007 financial results Annexes
4
BROAD PRODUCT MIX
5
ММК 20% Severstal 18% NLMK 14% NKMK 3% Uralskaya Stal 5% NTMK 9% Chelyabinsk Iron and Steel Works 6% ZMSK 9% Other 16%
Leader of Rolled Steel Output in Russia, 2007
Source: Metal Expert
ММК 37% Severstal 32% NLMK 18% Uralskaya Stal 4% Other 9%
Leader of Flat Steel Output in Russia, 2007
Arcelor Mittal
Nippon Steel JFE
Baosteel U.S. Steel Nucor Tangshan Corus Group Riva Group Severstal ThyssenKrupp Evraz Group Gerdau Anshan Jiangsu Shagang Group W uhan Sumitomo SAIL Techint ММК POSCO
20 40 60 80 100 120
One of the Largest Steel Producers in the World, mt
BROAD PRODUCT MIX
Source: IISI
6
Output of Main Products in 2007
Hot rolled sheet 6.39 m tons (52.4%) Cold rolled sheet 1.56 m tons (12.8%) Long products 1.79 m tons (14.7%) Downstream products 1.49 m tons (12.2%) Billets and slabs 0.98 m tons (8.0%)
Picture Picture Picture Picture
Leading Position in High Added Value Production
MMK’s share in Russia’s total
1
% of MMK’s production Products
52% 42% HR flat products 23% Polymer (colour) coated rolled products 1% 24% Galvanized flat products 35% CR flat products 53% CR narrow strip 3% 100% Tinplate 2% 13% 3% 54% Special sections 2%
Source: MMK, Chermet
1 1 1 2 3 2
Market position
BROAD PRODUCT MIX
7
“Thanks to its diversified product mix, MMK is exposed to all of the
STRONG POSITIONS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET
8
49% 50% 54% 60% 51% 50% 46% 40% 0% 50% 100% 2004 2005 2006 2007
Domestic Market Export
Growth of Downstream Products Sales in Russia and CIS, 2002-2007 Domestic Market, 2007 Export, 2007
HRC 46,4% CRC 12,1% Dow nstream 17,3% Long Products 24,2% Long Products 0,2% HRC 61,3% CRC 13,9% Dow nstream 4,5% Slabs and Billets 20,0%
Source: MMK, data on ОАО ММК
Source: ММК
197 209 229 218 133 422 438 426 150 135 129 161 56 230 178 209 51 166 179 74 73 79 158 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2002 2004 2006 2007 Tinplate Galvanized Flat Products Steel Strip Formed Sections Colour coated flat products Other
Source: MMK Source: MMK
’000 tons
694 1,122 1,219
% of supplies, tons % of supplies, tons
(1) 1,266
Total: 7,327 kt Total: 4,876 kt
Growth of Domestic Sales in Physical Terms
STRONG POSITIONS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET
9
MMK Shipments breakdown by Industries, 2007
Source: MMK
(1)
Construction industry growth Increased consumption
products Expected growth of demand from other industries Growing demand from pipe manufacturers
Russian market
polymer coated rolled products
consumers
the product mix
Goal and Strategy of Domestic Sales
Metalware producers 16,25% Machine building 16,87% Pipe production 19,71% Spot market 29,02% Automotiv e 10,11% Food 2,60% Construction 4,05% Power and f uel 0,95% Bridge building 0,44%
STRONG POSITIONS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET
832 752 756 736 729 719 703 676 614 1 020 1 650 2 257 2 879 3 551 4 238 4 926 2000 4000 6000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russian Foreign
36,5 41,9 47,3 53,2 59,5 67,6
20 40 60 80 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1612 2052 2531 2550 2100 2300 2329 3017 3449 3550 3600 3700
2000 4000 6000 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
Large diameter pipes Others
CAGR 21,3% Russian Oil & Gas Pipe Consumption, th.t Real Estate Construction Volume, min m Car Consumption in Russia, th. units
Source: ТМК Forecast Source: RenCap Source: Avtostat
CAGR 8,8%
CAGR 13,1%
2
10
50 100 150 200
1К04 2К04 3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (flats) 50 100 150 200
1К04 2К04 3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (flats) 50 100 150 200
3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (flats) 50 100 150 200
1К04 2К04 3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (flats) 50 100 150 200 250
1К04 2К04 3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (long products) 50 100 150 200 250
1К04 2К04 3К04 4К04 1К05 2К05 3К05 4К05 1К06 2К06 3К06 4К06 1К07 2К07 3К07 4К07
Export Domestic Movement of CRU index (flats)
Long products, % Plates, % Coated products, % Galvanized products, % HR coils, % CR products, %
Source: ММК, CRU
STRONG POSITIONS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET
11
FOOTPRINT ON PROMISING EXPORT MARKETS
12
Europe 25,4% Middle East 50,1% Africa 9,1% North America 2,2% Other 0,9% Asia and Far East 12,3% Asia and Far East 7,2% Middle East* 54,8% Europe 18,5% Africa 6,8% North America 7,3% Other 5,4%
* Including shipments from the Turkey plant
Goal: Maintain Competitive Position on the International Market
FOOTPRINT ON PROMISING EXPORT MARKETS
Export structure, 2007 Export structure, 2013
13
213 257 372 372 543 200 400 600
Turkey New EC members and candidates ЕС15 USA Japan
Location in Turkey
Per capita steel consumption in 2006, kg Consumption by product, kt Flat products production/consumption balance, kt
5 040 5 500 5 646 8 245 11 667 2 028 2 213 2 271 3 317 4 694 1148 1253 1286 1879 2658
3000 6000 9000 12000 2004 2005 2006 2010E 2015E HR sheet* CR sheet Coated sheet**
ММК – Atakas Project
Istanbul Iskenderun
* Exclusive of plate ** Exclusive of tinplate
9,2 10,3 11,7 13,2 14,3 15,5 4,7 4,7 5,3 5,9 7,3 12,0
0,0 4,0 8,0 12,0 16,0 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E Consumption Production Balance
Source: Lehman Brothers report
FOOTPRINT ON PROMISING EXPORT MARKETS
14
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
15
MMK maintains its competitive edge thanks to the following factors:
MMK Production Costs and Prices, USD/ton
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Average production cost, USD/t Average product price, USD/t
34% 32% 27% 17% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Brasil Russia Asia and Far East Europe North America
Average EBITDA Margin in Steel Sector, %
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
18,7 20,1 20,9 25,4 26,3 28,9 30,5 36,6 39,4 10 20 30 40 2005 2006 2007 NLMK Severstal ММК
Monthly average labor productivity
(in comparable structures), t/person
Source: Chermet Source: Deutsche Bank Source: MMK
16 16
Russia has own strategic coal reserves covering the requirements of Russian steel producers Despite the growth in coal consumption, the Russian coal market is balanced with a significant potential of export decrease Russian iron ore production exceeds the current requirements of Russian steel producers for these raw materials In 1Q of 2008 iron ore prices were stable due to agreements concluded earlier
Even given permanent scrap consumption growth, Russian steel producers retain the flexibility to switch over to consumption of currently exported scrap
40.1 38.7 Consumption, mt Coal concentrate 47.6 2006 Production, mt Russia 49.0 2007 99.2 97.3 Production, mt 84.5 86.1 Consumption, mt 2007 2006 Russia Iron ore
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
17
140.3 96.1 89.4 56.1 2,411 7,440 6,378 7,452 2005 49.0 40.4 49.8 Iron ore (sinter charge) 5,813 5,834 6,384 Iron ore (pellets) 95.0 78.8 65.8 Coking Coal 76.0 56.7 83.8 Iron ore (pellets) Price per ton (US$ /t) 5,046 3,798 2,051 Scrap 7,189 7,324 7,900 Coking Coal 7,386* 8,215 7,725 Iron ore (sinter charge) Quantity (kt) 245.0 187.2 125.6 Scrap 2007 2006 2004
Consumption and price of major raw materials
Source: MMK * - excluding supplies from Bakalskoe RU
MMK Material Costs Breakdown, US$
Purchased energy 2.5% Purchased fuel 5.8% Auxiliary materials 12.9% Scrap 28.9% Coal 16.0% Other basic raw materials 14.5% Pellets 10.3% Sinter charge 9.0%
Purchased energy 1.3% Purchased fuel 6.5% Auxiliary materials 14.5% Scrap 23.0% Coal 18.7% Other basic raw materials 14.6% Pellets 10.7% Sinter charge 10.7%
2007 2006
Note
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
18
74,7% 3,1% 4,0% 12,4% 5,8% SSGPO Mihailovsky GOK Lebedinsky GOK Self Sufficiency Others
Iron-ore Supplies
15.4 mt
Coal Concentrate Supplies Scrap Supplies
56% 44% Belon Others Company Profit; 100%
8% 23% 20% 11% 1% 31% 5,9% 0%
Belon Raspadsky Ugol Kusmetugol Mechel Sibuglemet Juzhkuzbasugol Mittal Steel Timertau COAL TRADE company
78,3% 21,7%
SSGPO Self Sufficiency 28,4% 71,6% SSGPO Self Sufficiency
2009* 2016** 2007 2007 2012 2007-2016
16.95 mt 19.57 mt 6,0 mt 7,2 mt 2007 – 5,0 mt 2016 – 5,6 mt
Source: MMK
** - Switch to iron ore supplies from Prioskolsk GOK are possible in case of positive economic feasibility and favorable market situation. Thus MMK will be 100% self sufficient in iron ore.
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
Self sufficiency for iron ore, coal and scrap
19
MMK's Requirement for Coking Coal Concentrate, mt
9,48 10,17 10,30 10,60 11,00 11,48 6,60 6,00 7,20 7,00 6,90 7,00 3,35 3,68 3,90 3,73 2,00 0,58
0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 2007 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f
kt
MMK's pig iron production Coking coal concentrate requirement Use of Belon's coking coal concentrate in the MMK's Coke and Chemical Div ision (based on 55.8% in charge)
Divisions amounting to 35 - 40 mln US$
Note: Improvement of MMK Blast Furnace Smelting Technology (Pulverized Coal Injection, installation of Paul Wurth bell-less top charging devices and use of stabilized sinter) will allow to reduce specific coke consumption by 2012.
In March 2008 ММК acquired 50% of ONARBAY ENTERPRISES LIMITED holding 82.6% of Belon for $230.4 mln
Belon Group’s coal reserves - 446 mt Steam coal: 267 mt (60%) Coking coal: 179 mt (40%) Production in 2007 – 4.6 mt
Production growth up to 10.8 mt by 2012. x2.5 growth of coal concentrate production by 2012 up to 10 mt (including coking coal concentrate
up to 5 mt)
Discontinuance of coal purchases for beneficiation plants, thus boosting the company’s margins; Compliance with current standards of industrial safety
Investment program to raise scale and efficiency Belon Group Transaction’s Upsides for MMK
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
20
Deposit Characteristics Project Parameters Project’s Strengths
a period of over 60 years.
Production capacity: 35 mtpy of crude ore Commercial products (sinter ore, pellets, concentrate): 15 mtpy Construction time: 3 years Capex: USD 1.8 bn IRR: 19%.
In November, 2006, MMK won a tender to develop Prioskol Iron Ore Deposit. In December of 2007 MMK’s Board of Directors passed a resolution on setting up a branch of MMK in the Belgorod Region to implement the project.
The Prioskolsky Deposit is the largest deposit of rich iron
Anomaly (KMA). The deposit’s confirmed reserves comprise 45 m tons of rich ore (Fe-50,31 %) and 2.1 bn tons of ferruginous quartzites (Fe-33,5 %)
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS
21
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
22 22
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Note: 1. Expected capacity expansion based on management assessments according to MMK’s current Capex budget
Increased Efficiency + Increased Capacity
with a capacity of 450 ktpy
2,000 HSM productivity by 500 ktpy
roll first plate
production level raised to 850 ktpy
reach design cap. of 1.5 Mtpy
products’ level to rise to 400 ktpy
cold rolling shop (CRM)
new 2000CRM to reach 2 Mtpy
rolled and galvanized steel for auto sector to reach 1.1 Mtpy
to go on stream
galvanized steel production to reach 1.35 Mtpy
converter # 4, with BOF production level to increase by 1 Mtpy
2,500 HRM to go up to 5 Mtpy
Shop to reach 12 Mtpy
2,500 HRM to go up to 5.5 Mtpy 12.2 Mtpy 13.3 Mtpy 13.0 Mtpy 14.1 Mtpy 13.2 Mtpy 14.2 Mtpy 13.2 Mtpy 14.2 Mtpy 13.2 Mtpy 14.2 Mtpy 14.0 Mtpy 15.1 Mtpy 15.0 Mtpy 16.1 Mtpy
Crude steel Production Commercial Products Production
Work under earlier contracts Plate Mill 5,000 HDGL # 2
Planned Investments
US$816 m US$1 609 m US$1 871 m US$1 476 m US$493 m US$294 m US$186 m TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
23
Contractual schedule:
foundation works
construction of the building
PLATE PRODUCTION
Only 8 companies ( located in Germany, France and Japan) are able to produce plate with comparable characteristics
Source: MMK
9 12 Rolling force, kt 1989 2009 Year of start-up 18 24 Length, m 12-300 8-160 Thickness, mm Up to X80 Up to X120 Strength class Up to 4400 Up to 4800 Width, mm 0.6
Severstal
1.5
MMK(1)
Capacity, mtpy
Characteristics 5,000 MM Plate Mills: MMK vs Severstal
HSLA, IF-HSS, BH, two-phase, multiphase, ТRIP Steel grades 0.28 – 3.0 Thickness, mm 850-1880 Width, mm 2000 Capacity, kt
Main Characteristics
financing for the delivery contract
2011
AUTO BODY SHEET PRODUCTION Product unparalleled in Russia = Sales growth = Significant margin’s growth
The implementation of the Project will allow to produce high quality auto body sheet meeting the requirements of the leading international auto makers (GM, Ford, Toyota, etc )
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
24
3 000 6 000 9 000 12 000 15 000
Commercial slabs Long products Flat products
Production, ktpy
Downstream products EBITDA /t*
$ 265 $ 185
Total EBITDA growth in 2013 against 2008: USD1,575 mln *
* - Calculation made on estimate prices and costs for 2008. Going forward the costs and prices are fixed
CAPEX to increase the share of value added products
19% 4% 14% 12% 13% 8% 8% 34% 29% 17% 38% 51% 66% 48% 47% 67% 68% 50% 36% 26% 44% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Equipment maintenance Reduction of current costs and increase in billets' products Downstream production
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
25
927 640 1029 861 221 221 2 797 628
927
387
10 000 12 000 14 000 2007 2013
Production increase in 2013 compared to 2007 Change of current product mix through modernisation and new facilities commissioning Reduction of commercial slab volume
12 203 15 000 High quality CR flat products 2 mtpa Plate 1.5 mtpa Color-coated steel products Galvanized products
30% 42% 40% 48% EBITDA margin*
* - in 2007 prices
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
26 26
Project parameters
Goal: Sales of up to 300 ktpy of MMK cold rolled and galvanized steel products in the North-West Region of Russia by means of creating
production facilities for stamped and stamp-welded components for
auto makers and white goods producers. 1 stage: Acquisition of a 75% stake in CJSC Intercos-IV for RUB 509 m. 2 stage: Construction of a steel service center and a stamping plant in Kolpino, Leningrad Region, designed to process up to 300 ktpy of cold rolled and galvanized products. Construction time is 2.5 years.
Project location
Interkos -4
thousand pcs.
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
Home appliances market in Russia, 2005-11
2000 4000 6000
2011E 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 2005 ref rigirators washing machine
Source: Euromonitor, Forecasts of EIU
1000 2000 3000 4000
2013E 2012E 2011E 2010E 2009E 2008E 2007E 2006 2005
Russian brands import localization of f oreign companies production
Cars output in Russia, 2005-13
thousand vehicles
Source: Companies forecast, ASM-Holding, forecast of ING
C A G R
, 4 %
CAGR : Refrigerators – 6%, Washing machines – 7,1% 832 752 756 736 729 719 703 676 614 1 020 1 650 2 257 2 879 3 551 4 238 4 926 2000 4000 6000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russian Foreign CAGR 21,3%
Car Consumption in Russia, th. units
Source: Avtostat
27
EXPERIENCED MANAGEMENT
28
Marina A. Zhemchueva Chief Accountant Work record with MMK: 26 years Arkady V. Chernov Head of Staff of the President of MMK Managing Company Work record with MMK: 31 years
Management Team Achievements
1996-2006 from 5.9 m to 11.3 m tons
statements since 2001
largest production site
producers to enter the international financial markets
Victor F.Rashnikov Chairman of MMK’s Board of Directors, President of MMK Managing Company Work record with MMK: 40 years Vladimir I.Shmakov Vice President for Finance and Economics Work record with MMK: 24 years Guennadi S.Senichev Chairman of MMK’s Management Board Vice President for Operations, Managing Director Work record with MMK: 35 years Rafkat S.Takhautdinov Vice President for Strategic Planning Work record with MMK: 28 years Serguei V.Krivoschekov Vice President for Property Management Work record with MMK: 24 years
EXPERIENCED MANAGEMENT
29
30
Sales and EBITDA Dynamics
US$ m
demand growth
customised products especially from the pipe-making, construction, energy and automobile industries
coated steel
Strong Domestic Demand
sales vs. 62% in 2006 and 61% in 2005
benefit from the favourable domestic price environment
exposure to spot sales
Growing Exposure to Domestic Markets
and showed a positive trend in 2007
–
High market concentration and growth in demand
–
Higher costs related to imports (eg. tariffs, logistical costs and other transport-related expenses)
Favourable Steel Price Dynamics
–
launch of galvanizing and coating facilities
–
reconstruction of sinter plants and blast furnaces
Projects for New Products and Costs Reduction
raw materials growth in 2007 was compensated by MMK’s increased revenues thanks to rising production levels and higher steel prices.
Raw Material Prices & Payroll
Source: MMK
(1) 3 047 4 829 6 424 8197 1 003 1 735 1 511 2 005 2342 5 380
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Sales EBITDA Margin %
ANNEXES
31
56.4 1,130 11.3 725 1,426 31.2 2,005 19.4 6,424 2006 58.3 585 7.1 217 608 32.9 1,003 48.3 3,047 2003 58.2 1,010 8.4 407 1,232 35.9 1,735 58.5 4,829 2004 2,342 1,511 EBITDA 28.6 28.0 margin, % 1,772 947 Net income 1,257 580 Capex 15.3 10.8 % of sales 56.8 83.1 % EBITDA 1,331 1,255 Operating cash flow 27.6 11.4 % of growth 8,197 5,380 Sales 2007 2005
Key Financials
Source: MMK Group US GAAP Consolidated Financial Statements
US$ m
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2004 2005 2006 2007 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 Debt EBITDA Debt/EBITDA 2000 4000 6000 2004 2005 2006 2007 0,2 0,4 Total debt Equity Total debt /Equity
Debt / EBITDA Total debt/ Equity
ANNEXES
32
Analysts TP premium over monthly average MMK MP
Source: MMK
MMK Р/Е and EV/EBITDA compared with industry average
ANNEXES
6 6,5 7 7,5 8 8,5 9 9,5 10 10,5 11 4,5 4,7 4,9 5,1 5,3 5,5 5,7 5,9 6,1 6,3 6,5 EV/EBITDA P/E ММК Russia EMEA NLMK Severstal Evraz
ABN Ренессанс Капитал Merrill Lynch HSBC Morgan Stanley Troika ING Citigroup GoldmanSachs UniCredit (Атон) Uralsib Deutsche UFG CSFB
13,00 14,00 15,00 16,00 17,00 18,00 19,00 20,00 21,00 22,00
$ Average MP, March 08 Analysts TP consensus 21%
33
34
Volga Region 22% Urals 40% NW Region 2% Central Region 14% South 4% Belarus 1% Siberia 8% CIS 9%
Geography and evolution of domestic sales4, tons
Middle East 43% Europe 22% North America 11% Af rica 8% Central and Latin America 4% Asia and Far East 12% Europe 25% Middle East 51% Central and Latin America 1% Af rica 9% North America 2% Asia and Far East 12%
Moscow South of Russia Volga Region Siberia Far East NW Region Central Region Urals CIS 8.0% 22.9% 12.7% 7.6% 0.2% Novorossiysk Eysk
17.2% 5.1% 1.7% 8.4% % % 1.8% 4.3% 1.2% Geography and evolution of export sales3, tons
2006 2007
R/w frontier points to non-CIS states 1.7%
Volga Region 21% Central Region 13% Urals 38% South 3% NW Region 2% Belarus 2% Siberia 8% CIS 13%
2006 2007
Notes:
Russia1 Export2
Source: MMK
Belarus 1.3% Astrakhan Olya Port 3.9% 0.1% Vladivostok 1.9% Nakhodka 0.8% Makhachkala STRONG POSITIONS ON THE RUSSIAN MARKET
35
Natural Gas Supplies to OAO MMK MMK’s Power Production Cost against Power Purchase Price
43,25 49,84 58,87 24,12 19,68 16,6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2006 2007 Price of pow er purchased from other companies MMK's pow er production cost
US$ / MW*h
Source: ММК
160% 153%
Power Balance
642 705 810 617 627 622 200 400 600 800 2005 2006 2007 Consumption Pow er generation
MW
Source: ММК
144% 28% 72% ChelyabinskRegionGaz Novatek
Power Self-Sufficiency (1)
Source: ММК, annual reports and companies’ issue prospects
COMPETITIVE EDGE IN COSTS 76% 43% 40% 55% 24% 57% 60% 45% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% MMK Severstal NLMK Evraz Captive pow er Purchased pow er
36 36 Sintering Oxygen Converters Continuous Casting Machines Hot Rolled Products Long Products Cold Rolled Products High Value-Added Downstream
1. Construction of sinter stabilization units at Sintering Plants # 2 and 3 and installation of Bell-less Top Charging Systems at Blast Furnace Shop:
Mil 5000
machine #6:
mtpy
Oxygen Converter #4
and gas pipe industry
2500 mm hot rolling mills
Rolling Shop
#11
1.35 mtpy
ktpy
Note: Expected capacity expansions based on management assessments according to MMK’s current Capex budget
Increased Efficiency Increased Capacity
Blast Furnaces Electric Arc Furnaces Coke Production
Continuous Casting Machine #6
INVESTMENTS IN RAISING MARGINS
37
790 900 850 500 540 300 1500 1350 1200 1200 500 540 300
400 800 1200 1600
ММК Severstal VMZ Uralskaya Stal Evraz (NKMK) AMZ Mechel
2007 2010
37
Pipeline Projects in Russia up to 2015 Pipe Consumption Forecast in Russia Largest Plate Mill Facilities in Russia, kt Forecast of heavy plates consumption in Russia, kt
Source: ММК Источник: MMK
Source: MMK Forecast Source: MMK According to announced plans Start-up of the 1.5 mtpy 5000 mm Plate Mill in in 2009, completion of the 2500 mm Mill revamping 1612 2052 2531 2550 2100 2300 2329 3017 3449 3550 3600 3700 2000 4000 6000
2005 2006 2007Е 2008Е 2009Е 2010Е
Large diameter pipes Other
1421 3600 1932 2600 2000 4000 6000 8000 2006 2015
Pipe industry (for Large diameter pipes) Other
Market growth 85 % CAGR 8,8%
TARGET INVESTMENTS TO BOOST PROFITABILITY
28,1 36 418 Total 4,3 5 539 2006-2015 Transneft projects 23,8 30 879 2006-2015 Gazprom projects Tonnage (mt) Length of pipeline (km) Period Projects
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THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR DISTRIBUTION IN UK ONLY AMONG THE PEOPLE HAVING PROFESSIONAL SKILL IN THE ISSUES RELATED TO INVESTMENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF ARTICLE 19(5) OF DIRECTIVE ON FINANCIAL ADVERTISEMENT APPROVED IN 2005 ON THE BASIS OF LAW ON FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS 2000, OR THOSE PEOPLE, AMONG WHICH IT MAY BE LAWFULLY DISTRIBUTED. THIS INFORMATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND PROVIDED TO YOU EXCLUSIVELY FOR YOUR REFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THIS INFORMATION THE RECIPIENT HEREOF CONFIRMS THAT HE OR SHE IS A SPECIALIST IN THE SPHERE OF INVESTMENTS WITHIN THE MEANING OF ARTICLE 19(5) OF DIRECTIVE ON FINANCIAL ADVERTISEMENT APPROVED IN 2005 ON THE BASIS OF LAW ON FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS 2000, ACTING IN HIS OR HER NATURE. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR A PART THEREOF, OR INVITATION TO SELL OR TO ISSUE, OR TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OR OTHERWISE PURCHASE ANY SHARES IN THE COMPANY OR ANY OTHER SECURITIES AND NOTHING CONTAINED HEREIN SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS SUBJECT TO VERIFICATION, COMPLETION AND MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED. NONE OF THE PERSONS IS LIABLE TO UPDATE OR MAINTAIN TOPICALITY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, AND THIS INFORMATION AND OPINIONS REFLECTED THEREIN COULD BE CHANGED WITHOUT ANY NOTIFICATION THEREABOUT. THIS PRESENTATION SHOULD REMAIN CONFIDENTIAL UNTIL THE REPORT IS PUBLISHED. SOME INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS STILL A DRAFT INFORMATION AND WAS NOT LEGALLY CONFIRMED AND WILL BE FINALY DETERMINED ONLY AT THE MOMENT OF FILING THE APPLICATION FOR FINAL ACCEPTANCE FOR TRADING AT THE STOCK EXCHANGE. THIS INFORMATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OF THE SECURITIES TO BE SOLD IN RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION. THE SECURITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AND WILL NOT BE REGISTERED UNDER THE US SECURITIES ACT OF 1933,AS AMENDED, AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD INTO THE UNITED STATES EXCEPT IN A TRANSACTION REGISTERED UNDER SUCH ACT, OR NOT REQUIRED TO BE REGISTERED THERE UNDER, OR PURSUANT TO AND EXEMPTION FROM REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS THEREOF. NO OFFERING OF SECURITIES IS BEING MADE INTO THE UNITED STATES. NO SECURITIES WILL BE REGISTERED UNDER THE APPLICABLE SECURITIES ACT OF ANY STATE OR TERRITORIAL ENTITY OF CANADA AND JAPAN. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT SUBJECT TO MAILING, TRANSFERRING OR OTHER TYPE OF DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN, OR TO THE TERRITORY OR FROM THE TERRITORY OF THE SPECIFIED COUNTRIES TO THE NAME OF ANY ANALYST IN THE SPHERE OF SECURITIES OR OTHER PERSON IN ANY OF THE SPECIFIED JURISDICTIONS. YOU AGREE TO AVOID FROM DISTRIBUTION OF ANY REPORT RESULTING FROM THE SURVEY OR SIMILAR DOCUMENTS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN, SAVE AS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE FEDERAL LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES ON SECURITIES INCLUDING SECURITIES ACT, AS WELL AS THE APPLICABLE LAWS OF CANADA, AUSTRALIA AND JAPAN, ACCORDINGLY. THIS PRESENTATION INCLUDES THE STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE, WHICH REPRODUCE THE INTENTIONS, OPINIONS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF THE COMPANY. THE STATEMENTS FOR THE FUTURE INCLUDE ANYTHING, WHICH IS NOT A FACT OCCURED. THE COMPANY TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT SUCH STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE BY MEANS OF THE WORDS, SUCH AS “MAY”, “WILL”, “SHOULD”, “EXPECT”, “INTEND”, “EVALUATE”, “ASSUME”, “PLAN”, “TO HAVE AN OPINION”, “TRY”, “FORECAST”, “CONTINUE” AND SIMILAR WORDS OR THEIR NEGATIVE FORMS. SUCH STATEMENTS HAD BEEN DONE BASING ON THE ASSUMPTIONS AND ASSESSMENTS, WHICH MAY OCCUR FAULTY, THOUGH THE COMPANY CONSIDERS THEM REASONABLE AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. SUCH STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE ARE LINKED TO THE RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND ASSUMPTIONS, AS WELL AS TO OTHER FACTORS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE EVENT THAT ACTUAL RESULTS OF THE COMPANY’S ACTIVITY AND ACTIVITY OF THE MARKETS, ON WHICH IT OPERATES OR INTENDS TO OPERATE IN, THEIR FINANCIAL STATUS, LIQUIDITY, CHARACTERISTICS, PROSPECTS AND ABILITIES COUILD MATERIALLY DIFFER FROM THOSE, WHICH ARE EXPRESSED WITH THE HELP OF SUCH STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE. THE IMPORTANT FACTORS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SUCH DIFFERENCES, INCLUDE, INTER ALIA, CHANGING BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND OTHER MARKET CONDITIONS, COMMON ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA, EU COUNTRIES, THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA OR ANYWHERE ELSE, AS WELL AS THE ABILITY OF THE COMPANY TO MEET THE TRENDS IN THE INDUSTRY. THE MATERIAL DIFFERENCE OF THE ACTUAL RESULTS, FEATURES AND ACHIEVEMENTS MAY BE THE RESULT OF ADDITIONAL FACTORS. THE COMPANY AND ALL ITS DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES AND ADVISORS HEREWITH STATE THAT THEY ARE NOT OBLIGED TO ISSUE ANY UPDATE OF OR REVISE ANY STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE CONTAINED HEREIN, OR DISCLOSE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS OF THE COMPANY OR EVENTS, CONDITIONS AND CIRCUMSTANCES, WHICH SUCH STATEMENTS RELATED TO THE FUTURE ARE BASED ON, SAVE AS IN THE CASES PROVIDED FOR BY THE APPLICABLE LAWS. RECEIPT OF ANY COPY OF THIS INFORMATION TESTIFIES THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE ABOVE LIMITATIONS.