PHILLIPS 66 SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL July 27, 2018 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PHILLIPS 66 SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL July 27, 2018 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PHILLIPS 66 SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL July 27, 2018 1 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of


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SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

July 27, 2018

PHILLIPS 66

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CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking

  • statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include

fluctuations in NGL, crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas prices, and refining, marketing and petrochemical margins; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined products; potential liability from litigation or for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/

  • r regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66

is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures. You can find the reconciliations to comparable GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation materials or in the “Investors” section of our website.

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EXECUTING THE STRATEGY

Bayway Refinery, Linden, New Jersey

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OVERVIEW 2Q 2018

(1) Dollars per share (2) Shareholder distributions include dividends and share repurchases

$MM (unless otherwise noted) 2Q 2018 Adjusted earnings $ 1,322 Adjusted EPS1 2.80 Operating cash flow 2,364 Capital expenditures and investments 538 Shareholder distributions2 602

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512 (31) 30 822 21 (21) (11) 1,322

$MM

1Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other 2Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings

2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income (Loss)

ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2Q 2018

202 262 911 195 (183) (65)

Noncontrolling Interests

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MIDSTREAM 2Q 2018

$MM Higher transportation volumes following refinery turnarounds NGL volumes exceeded design capacity Increased DCP volumes

1Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income Transportation NGL and Other DCP Midstream 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income

2Q 2018 233 1 (23) (9) 202 137 50 15

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CHEMICALS 2Q 2018

$MM

1Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income

Higher SA&S results following 1Q turnarounds

2Q 2018 232 23 14 (7) 262 247 32 (17)

95% O&P capacity utilization Strong operations at new U.S. Gulf Coast assets

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REFINING 2Q 2018

$MM

1Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income 2Q 2018 89 204 274 189 155 911 131 275 392 113

100% crude utilization 84% clean product yield $12.28/BBL realized margin $60 MM pre-tax turnaround costs

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REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 2Q 2018

WORLDWIDE REFINING $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products

Feedstock Other

Realized Margin

Avg Market Crude: $72.41/BBL 83% Market Capture

14.86 (2.17) (2.81) 3.15 (0.75) 12.28

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MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 2Q 2018

$MM Strong marketing margins Refined products exports of 200,000 BPD

1Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income Marketing & Other Specialties 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income 2Q 2018 174 16 5 195 145 50

Marketing volumes higher due to seasonal demand Reimaged 250 marketing sites

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(162) (12) (9) (183)

CORPORATE 2Q 2018

$MM

AND OTHER

2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other 1Q 2018 Adjusted Net Loss

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CASH FLOW 2Q 2018

$B

March 31 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding Working Capital) Working Capital Capital Expenditures & Investments Shareholder Distributions Other June 30 Cash Balance*

* Includes cash and cash equivalents

0.8 1.7 0.7 (0.5) (0.6) (0.3) 0.1 1.9

Debt

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OUTLOOK 3Q 2018

Global Olefins & Polyolefins utilization Mid-90% Refining crude utilization Mid-90% Refining turnaround expenses (pre-tax) $60 MM - $80 MM Corporate & Other costs (after-tax) $170 MM - $190 MM

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PHILLIPS 66 SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

Questions and Answers

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Appendix

PHILLIPS 66 SECOND QUARTER 2018 CONFERENCE CALL

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ESTIMATED SENSITIVITIES 2018

Sensitivities shown above are independent and are only valid within a limited price range

Annual Net Income $MM Midstream - DCP (net to Phillips 66) 10¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 5 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 1 $1/BBL Increase in WTI price 1 Chemicals - CPChem (net to Phillips 66) 1¢/Lb Increase in Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 45 Worldwide Refining $1/BBL Increase in Gasoline Margin 260 $1/BBL Increase in Distillate Margin 230 Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market Indicators: $1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 50 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential 40 $1/BBL Widening LLS / Medium Sour Differential 30 $1/BBL Widening LLS / WCS Differential 25 $1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential 15 $1/BBL Widening LLS / WTI Differential 10 $1/BBL Widening ANS / WTI Differential 10 $1/BBL Widening Brent / WTI Differential 5 10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (15)

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CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2015 – 2018

Excluding PSXP

Equity $B Debt $B Cash & Cash Equivalents $B Debt-to-Capital Net-Debt-to-Capital

Consolidated PSX

2015 2016 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018

23.9 23.7 27.4 24.3 25.0 8.9 10.1 10.1 11.6 11.4 3.1 2.7 3.1 0.8 1.9 27% 30% 27% 32% 31% 20% 24% 20% 31% 28%

2015 2016 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018

23.1 22.4 25.1 22.0 22.6 7.8 7.7 7.2 8.7 8.4 3.0 2.7 2.9 0.7 1.7 25% 26% 22% 28% 27% 17% 18% 14% 27% 23%

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REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 2Q 2018

ATLANTIC BASIN / EUROPE $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products

Feedstock

Other Realized Margin

Market 3:2:1 – Dated Brent / Gasoline 83.7 RBOB NYH / Diesel 15ppm NYH

14.18 (2.03) (0.42) (1.10) (0.21) 10.42

Brent: $74.35/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 73% Market Capture 92%

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REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 2Q 2018

GULF COAST $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products

Feedstock

Other Realized Margin

Market 3:2:1 – LLS / Gasoline 85 CBOB / Diesel 62 10ppm

11.39 (1.92) (2.62) 4.22 (1.14) 9.93

LLS: $73.11/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 87% Market Capture 102%

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18.04 (1.79) (4.21) 6.16 (0.69) 17.51

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 2Q 2018

CENTRAL CORRIDOR $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products

Feedstock

Other Realized Margin

Market 3:2:1 – WTI / Gasoline Unl Sub Octane Group 3 / ULSD Group 3 WTI: $67.99/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 97% Market Capture 104%

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18.74 (2.59) (4.66) 2.26 (0.98) 12.77

REFINING MARGINS – MARKET VS. REALIZED 2Q 2018

WEST COAST $/BBL

Market 3:2:1 Configuration Secondary Products Feedstock Other Realized Margin

Market 3:2:1 – ANS / Los Angeles CARBOB / Los Angeles No. 2 CARB ANS: $74.10/BBL Crude Capacity Utilization 68% Market Capture 100%

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ADJUSTED EARNINGS 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

2Q 2017 Adjusted Earnings Midstream Chemicals Refining Marketing & Specialties Corporate & Other Noncontrolling Interests 2Q 2018 Adjusted Earnings

2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income (Loss)

569 101 66 678 (23) (35) (34) 1,322

202 262 911 195 (183) (65)

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MIDSTREAM 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

2Q 2017 Adjusted Net Income Transportation NGL and Other DCP Midstream 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income

2Q 2018

101 63 36 2 202

137 50 15

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CHEMICALS 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

2Q 2017 Adjusted Net Income Olefins & Polyolefins Specialties, Aromatics & Styrenics Other 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income

2Q 2018

196 68 11 (13) 262

247 32 (17)

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REFINING 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

2Q 2017 Adjusted Net Income Atlantic Basin / Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income

2Q 2018

233 22 219 363 74 911

131 275 392 113

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MARKETING AND SPECIALTIES 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

218 (40) 17 195

2Q 2018 2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Income 2Q 2017 Adjusted Net Income 145 50 Marketing & Other Specialties

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CORPORATE AND OTHER 2Q 2018 VS. 2Q 2017

$MM

2Q 2018 Adjusted Net Loss 2Q 2017 Adjusted Net Loss Net Interest Expense Corporate Overhead & Other

(148) (34) (1) (183)

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CASH FLOW YTD 2018

$B

3.1 3.0 (0.1) (0.9) (4.4) 1.2 $1.9 December 31, 2017 Cash Balance* CFO (excluding Working Capital) Working Capital Capital Expenditures & Investments Shareholder Distributions Debt June 30, 2018 Cash Balance*

* Includes cash and cash equivalents

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* We generally tax effect taxable U.S.-based special items using a combined federal and state statutory income tax rate of approximately 25 percent beginning in 2018, and approximately 38 percent for periods prior to 2018. Taxable special items attributable to foreign locations likewise use a local statutory income tax rate. Nontaxable events reflect zero income tax. These events include, but are not limited to, most goodwill impairments, transactions legislatively exempt from income tax, transactions related to entities for which we have made an assertion that the undistributed earnings are permanently reinvested, or transactions occurring in jurisdictions with a valuation allowance. ** Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding and income allocated to participating securities, if applicable, in the adjusted earnings per share calculation are the same as those used in the GAAP diluted earnings per share calculation.

Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Phillips 66 Consolidated Earnings $ 1,863 1,339 524 1,085 550 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (24) (24) Pension settlement expense — — — 55 55 Impairments by equity affiliates — — — 33 — Certain tax impacts (70) (55) (15) — — Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Tax impact of adjustments * 17 14 3 137 (12) U.S. tax reform 24 24 — — — Adjusted Earnings $ 1,834 1,322 512 863 569 Earnings Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) ** $ 3.87 2.84 1.07 2.07 1.06 Adjusted Earnings Per Share of Common Stock (dollars) ** $ 3.81 2.80 1.04 1.65 1.09

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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30 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Midstream Net Income $ 435 202 233 208 96 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pension settlement expense — — — 8 8 Tax impact of adjustments — — — (3) (3) Adjusted Net Income $ 435 202 233 213 101 Chemicals Net Income $ 494 262 232 377 196 Pre-tax Adjustments: Impairments by equity affiliates — — — 33 — Tax impact of adjustments — — — (13) — Adjusted Net Income $ 494 262 232 397 196

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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31 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Refining Net Income $ 1,001 910 91 483 224 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (21) (21) Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Certain tax impacts (1) 1 (2) — — Pension settlement expense — — — 35 35 Tax impact of adjustments — — — 157 (5) Adjusted Net Income $ 1,000 911 89 231 233 Marketing & Specialties Net Income $ 421 237 184 355 214 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pension settlement expense — — — 7 7 Certain tax impacts (69) (56) (13) — — Tax impact of adjustments 17 14 3 (3) (3) Adjusted Net Income $ 369 195 174 359 218

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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32 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Corporate and Other Net Loss $ (362) (207) (155) (279) (149) Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (3) (3) Pension settlement expense — — — 5 5 Tax impact of adjustments — — — (1) (1) U.S. tax reform 17 24 (7) — — Adjusted Net Loss $ (345) (183) (162) (278) (148)

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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33 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Midstream - Transportation Net Income $ 273 137 136 152 74 Pre-tax Adjustments: Tax impact of adjustments — — — — — Adjusted Net Income $ 273 137 136 152 74 Midstream - NGL and Other Net Income $ 123 50 73 26 9 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pension settlement expense — — — 8 8 Tax impact of adjustments — — — (3) (3) Adjusted Net Income $ 123 50 73 31 14 Midstream - DCP Midstream Net Income $ 39 15 24 30 13 Pre-tax Adjustments: Tax impact of adjustments — — — — — Adjusted Net Income $ 39 15 24 30 13

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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34 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Refining - Atlantic Basin / Europe Net Income (Loss) $ 58 131 (73) 57 107 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (5) (5) Pension settlement expense — — — 9 9 Tax impact of adjustments — — — (2) (2) Adjusted Net Income (Loss) $ 58 131 (73) 59 109 Refining - Gulf Coast Net Income $ 276 275 1 381 53 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (7) (7) Gain on consolidation of business — — — (423) — Pension settlement expense — — — 12 12 Tax impact of adjustments — — — 160 (2) Adjusted Net Income $ 276 275 1 123 56

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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35 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Refining - Central Corridor Net Income $ 595 392 203 89 27 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (5) (5) Pension settlement expense — — — 8 8 Tax impact of adjustments — — — (1) (1) Adjusted Net Income $ 595 392 203 91 29 Refining - West Coast Net Income (Loss) $ 72 112 (40) (44) 37 Pre-tax Adjustments: Pending claims and settlements — — — (4) (4) Certain tax impacts (1) 1 (2) — — Pension settlement expense — — — 6 6 Tax impact of adjustments — — — — — Adjusted Net Income (Loss) $ 71 113 (42) (42) 39

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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36 Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated 2018 2017 Jun YTD 2Q 1Q Jun YTD 2Q Marketing & Specialties - Marketing & Other Net Income $ 326 187 139 305 181 Pre-tax Adjustments: Certain tax impacts (69) (56) (13) — — Pension settlement expense — — — 7 7 Tax impact of adjustments 17 14 3 (3) (3) Adjusted Net Income $ 274 145 129 309 185 Marketing & Specialties - Specialties Net Income $ 95 50 45 50 33 Pre-tax Adjustments: Tax impact of adjustments — — — — — Adjusted Net Income $ 95 50 45 50 33

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Adjusted total processed inputs include our proportional share of processed inputs of an equity affiliate. ** Net income divided by total processed inputs. *** Realized refining margins per barrel, as presented, are calculated using the underlying realized refining margin amounts, in dollars, divided by adjusted total processed inputs, in barrels. As such, recalculated per barrel amounts using the rounded margins and barrels presented may differ from the presented per barrel amounts due to rounding.

Millions of Dollars 2018 2Q Atlantic Basin/Europe Gulf Coast Central Corridor West Coast Worldwide Realized Refining Margins Net income $ 131 275 392 112 910 Plus: Income tax expense 33 91 129 27 280 Taxes other than income taxes 15 23 9 25 72 Depreciation, amortization and impairments 50 64 32 60 206 Selling, general and administrative expenses 15 13 7 12 47 Operating expenses 225 292 124 228 869 Equity in (earnings) losses of affiliates 3 3 (220) — (214) Other segment (income) expense, net — 3 (8) (14) (19) Proportional share of refining gross margins contributed by equity 28 — 381 — 409 Realized refining margins $ 500 764 846 450 2,560 Total processed inputs (thousands of barrels) 47,978 76,875 26,209 35,195 186,257 Adjusted total processed inputs (thousands of barrels)* 47,978 76,875 48,347 35,195 208,395 Net income (dollars per barrel)** $ 2.73 3.58 14.96 3.18 4.89 Realized refining margins (dollars per barrel)*** $ 10.42 9.93 17.51 12.77 12.28

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Capital employed is total equity plus total debt

2018 June YTD Phillips 66 Numerator ($MM) Net Income $ 1,989 After-tax interest expense 204 GAAP ROCE earnings $ 2,193 After-tax Special items (36) Adjusted ROCE earnings $ 2,157 Denominator ($MM) GAAP average capital employed* $ 36,932 2018 Annualized GAAP ROCE 12% 2018 Annualized Adjusted ROCE 12%

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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* Phillips 66 Partners’ third-party debt and Phillips 66's noncontrolling interest attributable to Phillips 66 Partners

Millions of Dollars 2018 2Q Phillips 66 Consolidated Phillips 66 Partners * Adjusted Phillips 66 Total Debt $ 11,364 2,946 8,418 Total Equity 24,960 2,391 22,569 Debt-to-Capital Ratio 31% 27% Total Cash & Cash Equivalents $ 1,884 151 $ 1,733 Net-Debt-to-Capital Ratio 28% 23%

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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40 Millions of Dollars Millions of Dollars 2018 2018 2Q June YTD Growth Sustaining Total Growth Sustaining Total Capital Expenditures and Investments Midstream $ 300 39 339 $ 403 72 475 Refining 41 112 153 100 225 325 Marketing & Specialties 5 10 15 12 16 28 Corporate and Other 2 29 31 3 35 38 Total $ 348 190 538 $ 518 348 866

NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

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NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS

PSXP Run-Rate EBITDA:

PSXP’s run-rate EBITDA is a forecast of future EBITDA, and is based on the Partnership’s projections of annual EBITDA inclusive of both currently owned assets and future potential acquisitions by the Partnership. Run-rate EBITDA is included to demonstrate the historical growth of the Partnership, as well as management’s intention of future growth through acquisitions and organic projects. We are unable to present a reconciliation of run-rate EBITDA to net income, which is the nearest GAAP financial measure, because certain elements of net income, including interest, depreciation and taxes, were not used in the forecasts and are therefore not available. Together, these items generally result in run-rate EBITDA being significantly greater than net income.

PSX Effective Tax Rate: Millions of Dollars 2018 2Q Effective Tax Rates Income before taxes $ 1,835 Special items (55) Adjusted income before taxes $ 1,780 Income tax expense $ 431 Special items (38) Adjusted provision for taxes $ 393 GAAP effective tax rate 23.5% Adjusted effective tax rate 22.1%