Powering today, protecting tomorrow
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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Powering today, protecting tomorrow MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016 22 FEBRUARY 2017 Disclaimer The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. These reflect Meridian’s current expectations, based on what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not
This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities. This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP financial measures. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in conjunction with the condensed interim financial statements, which are included in Meridian’s interim report for the six months ended 31 December 2016 and is available at: http://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors/ All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise.
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
1Net profit after tax adjusted for the effects of non-cash fair value movements and one-off items
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 $/MWh
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
30 June 2016 30 September 2016 31 December 2016 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GWh Calendar year ended 31 December
NATIONAL DEMAND
6
year on year change source: Electricity Authoirty
+1.8% +1.2%
Jul-Dec 2016
Oct-Dec 2016
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
REGIONAL DEMAND 1H FY2017 V 1H FY2016
Source: Electricity Authority, Meridian
200 220 240 260 280 300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TWh Calendar year ended 31 December
NEM DEMAND
8
source: NemSight source: Bloomberg
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
70 80 90 100
1 Jan 16 1 Mar 16 1 May 16 1 Jul 16 1 Sep 16 1 Nov 16
AUD
LGC SPOT PRICE
source: Mercari 1 Jan 17
0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76
1 Jul 16 1 Aug 16 1 Sep 16 1 Oct 16 1 Nov 16 1 Dec 16
Daily spot
NZD USD CROSS RATE
1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800
1 Jul 16 1 Aug 16 1 Sep 16 1 Oct 16 1 Nov 16 1 Dec 16
USD/tonne
LME SPOT ALUMINIUM PRICE
9
source: London Metal Exchange source: Thompson Reuters
4% appreciation since June 2016 3% depreciation since June 2016
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
1 Jan 17 1 Jan 17
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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1First six months of customer life 2Excluding metering costs and including allocation of corporate costs 3Not measured
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
6 month avg
6 month avg
6 month cost
$m
as 31 Dec
4.19 4.80 5.10 5.33 1.40 2.44 2.44 4.19 6.20 7.54 7.77 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 CPS Six months ended 31 December
INTERIM DIVIDENDS DECLARED
Ordinary dividend Special dividend
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
INTERIM DIVIDENDS DECLARED AMOUNT CPS IMPUTATION % FY2017 Ordinary dividends 5.33 88% Capital management special dividends 2.44 0% Total 7.77 60% FY2016 Ordinary dividends 5.10 85% Capital management special dividends 2.44 0% Total 7.54 58%
533 8 66 123 352 124 130 203 27 200 509 8 64 121 332 104 122 206 28 194 100 200 300 400 500 600 $M
13 Energy Margin
+$24m Trans- mission
+$2m Operating Costs
+$2m EBITDAF
+$20m NPAT
+$20m Underlying NPAT
+$8m Operating Cash Flow
Investment Expenditure
Dividend Declared
+$6m Other revenue − 0% $0m
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
277 268 324 332 352 308 317 294 318 585 585 618 650 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
EBITDAF2
Interim Final half-year 435 447 480 509 533 481 477 474 500 916 924 954 1,009 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
ENERGY MARGIN1
Interim Final half-year
14
+5%
1See pg 27 for a definition of energy margin 2Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, changes in fair
value of hedges and other significant items
+6%
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
12 17 32 12 14 17 13 26 34 10 20 30 40 50 2014 2015 2016 2017 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
INTERNATIONAL SEGMENT EBITDAF
Interim Final half-year 64 71 78 84 91 20 40 60 80 100 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 FRMP (000)
AUSTRALIA CUSTOMER NUMBERS
+88%
24 23 19 19 34 37 31 58 61 50 20 40 60 80 2014 2015 2016 2017 $m Financial year ended 30 June
STAY IN BUSINESS CAPEX
Interim Final half-year
16
+3%
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
37 44 44 48 47 35 40 37 38 40 38 23 20 19 19 9 11 16 17 116 124 112 121 123 50 100 150 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $M Six months ended 31 December
OPERATING COSTS
Retail segment Wholesale Corporate/Elims International IPO Costs
88 83 115 122 130 75 112 94 111 163 195 209 233 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
UNDERLYING NPAT1
Interim Final half-year 173 117 117 104 124 122 113 130 81 295 230 247 185 100 200 300 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
NET PROFIT AFTER TAX
Interim Final half-year
17
+19%
1Net profit after tax adjusted for the effects of non cash fair value movements and one-off items.
A reconciliation between net profit after tax and underlying net profit after tax is on p36
+7%
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
GWh
MERIDIAN'S WAITAKI STORAGE
Average 1979- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
1,745 1,770 1,880 2,001 1,887 1,049 1,116 1,113 1,163 911 2,794 2,886 2,993 3,164 2,797 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GWh Six months ended 31 December
RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
Residential, SMB, Agri Corporate 106 108 104 102 103 115 114 116 117 115 51 55 56 56 57 272 277 276 275 276 100 200 300 400 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 ICP (000)
NEW ZEALAND CUSTOMER NUMBERS
Meridian North Island Meridian South Island Powershop
22
+0.3%
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 GWh
Financial year
MERIDIAN'S COMBINED CATCHMENT INFLOWS
December YTD 83 year average 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec
GWh
MERIDIAN'S WAITAKI STORAGE
Average 1979- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
48 40 64 57 44 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $/MWh Six months ended 31 December
MERIDIAN'S AVERAGE GENERATION PRICE1
5,432 5,991 6,163 6,087 6,296 618 660 739 771 733 6,050 6,651 6,902 6,858 7,029 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GWh Six months ended 31 December
NEW ZEALAND GENERATION
Hydro Wind
24
+2.5%
1Price received for Meridian’s physical New Zealand generation
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
352 332
+9 +32 +1 +15
290 310 330 350 370 EBITDAF 31 Dec 2015 Retail contracted sales Wholesale contracted sales Net cost of acquired generation Net spot exposed revenue Other market revenue/ (costs) International energy margin Transmission expenses Employee &
expenses EBITDAF 31 Dec 2016 $M
25
New Zealand energy margin +$9m
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
130 124 352
+6
+2
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
EBITDAF Depreciation and amortisation Premiums on electricity
Net finance costs Income tax expense Underlying NPAT Net change in fair value of financial instruments Premiums on electricity
Gain/(loss) on sale of assets Income tax expense NPAT
$M
27
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
28 1H FY2017 1H FY2016 NEW ZEALAND ENERGY MARGIN VOLUME GWh VWAP $/MWh $M VOLUME GWh VWAP $/MWh $M Residential/SMB contracted sales 1,887 2,001 Corporate and industrial contracted sales 911 1,163 Retail contracted sales 2,797 $108.9 $305 3,164 $104.6 $331 NZAS aluminium sales 2,525 2,525 Sell side CFDs 577 676 Wholesale contracted sales 3,102 $50.2 $156 3,201 $51.0 $163 Net VAS position 579 $4 579 $4 Acquired generation revenue 453 $50.5 $23 668 $58.6 $39 Cost of acquired generation 453
668
Future contract close outs
Net cost of acquired generation
Generation revenue 7,029 $44.4 $312 6,858 $57.0 $391 Costs to supply retail sales 2,932 3,333 Costs to supply wholesale sales 3,102 3,201 Cost to supply contracted sales 6,034
6,534
Net spot exposed revenue $25
Other market revenue/(costs)
Energy Margin $483 $474 LWAP:GWAP1 1.10 1.10
1Ratio between the price per unit received for Meridian’s physical
generation and the price paid to supply each unit of contracted sales, inclusive of line losses
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
483 305 156
312
23
4
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Retail contracted sales (net) Wholesale contracted sales Cost to supply contracted sales Meridian generation revenue Cost of acquired generation Acquired generation spot revenue Future contract close outs Net VAS position Market related costs Energy margin $M
29
Fixed price variable volume sales to residential and business customers (net of distribution costs), sales to large corporate and industrials and fixed price leg of derivatives sold Derivatives acquired to supplement generation and cover spot price risks, net
received from those derivatives Spot revenue received for Meridian’s own generation less the cost of purchases to cover contract load
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
483 474
111
24
1 1 350 400 450 500 550 600 Energy margin 31 Dec 15 Retail contracted sales (net) Wholesale contracted sales Cost to supply contracted sales Meridian generation revenue Cost of acquired generation Acquired generation spot revenue Future contract close outs Net VAS position Market related costs Energy margin 31 Dec 16 $M
30
Lower residential, agri and corporate customer volumes, higher SMB sales From lower acquired generation volumes and lower wholesale prices Higher spot exposed revenues from lower purchase volumes Lower derivative sales
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
31
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
31% 7% 16% 7% 31% 7%
SOURCES OF FUNDING AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2016
NZ$ bank facilities drawn/undrawn EKF - Danish export credit Retail Bonds Floating rate notes US private placement Commercial paper 80 105 357 203 10 408 105 107 100 200 300 400 500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+ $M
DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS AT 31 DEC 2016
Available facilities maturing Drawn debt maturing (face value)
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Jun 2014 Jun 2015 Jun 2016 Dec 2016 TIMES
NET DEBT/EBITDAF (S&P VIEW)
33
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
94 18
20 40 60 80 100 120 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 HY 2017 $M CHANGE IN FAIR VALUE OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
35 6 MONTHS ENDED 6 MONTHS ENDED 12 MONTHS ENDED SUMMARY GROUP INCOME STATEMENT 31 DEC 2016 $M 31 DEC 2015 $M 30 JUN 2016 $M New Zealand energy margin 483 474 939 International energy margin 50 35 70 Other revenue 8 8 17 Energy transmission expense (66) (64) (128) Employee and other operating expenses (123) (121) (248) EBITDAF 352 332 650 Depreciation and amortisation (132) (117) (236) Impairment of assets
Gain/(loss) on sale of assets (2)
Net change in fair value of electricity and other hedges (75) (32) (15) Net finance costs (38) (39) (78) Net change in fair value of treasury instruments 63
Net Profi fit before tax 168 144 256 Income tax expense (44) (40) (71) Net Profi fit after tax 124 104 185
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
6 MONTHS ENDED 6 MONTHS ENDED 12 MONTHS ENDED UNDERLYING NPAT RECONCILIATION 31 DEC 2016 $M 31 DEC 2015 $M 30 JUN 2016 $M Net profi fit after tax 124 104 185 Underlying adjustments Hedging instruments Net change in fair value of electricity and other hedges 75 32 15 Net change in fair value of treasury instruments (63)
Premiums paid on electricity options (6) (7) (12) Assets Gain/(loss) on sale of assets 2
Impairment of assets
Total adjustments before tax 8 25 68 Taxation Tax effect of above adjustments (2) (7) (20) Underlying net profi fit after tax 130 122 233 36
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
37 6 MONTHS ENDED 6 MONTHS ENDED 12 MONTHS ENDED SUMMARY GROUP CASH FLOW STATEMENT 31 DEC 2016 $M 31 DEC 2015 $M 30 JUN 2016 $M Receipts from customers 1,110 1,166 2,348 Interest and dividends received 1 1 2 Payments to suppliers and employees (794) (862) (1,723) Interest and income tax paid (114) (99) (175) Operating cash fl flows 203 206 452 Sale of property, plant and equipment
1
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (18) (20) (42) Purchase of intangible assets and investments (9) (8) (19) Investing cash fl flows (26) (28) (56) Term borrowings 447 270 634 Term borrowings repaid (420) (139) (478) Shares purchased for long term incentive
(1) Dividends (278) (307) (502) Financing cash fl flows (251) (177) (347)
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
38 AS AT AS AT AS AT SUMMARY GROUP BALANCE SHEET 31 DEC 2016 $M 31 DEC 2015 $M 30 JUN 2016 $M Cash and cash equivalents 44 69 118 Trade receivables 184 220 194 Other current assets 121 104 94 Total current assets 349 393 406 Property, plant and equipment 7,648 6,970 7,771 Intangible assets 57 43 47 Other non-current assets 225 222 314 Total non-current assets 7,930 7,235 8,132 Payables, accruals and employee entitlements 211 230 220 Current portion of term borrowings 187 211 214 Other 72 54 79 Total current liabilities 470 495 513 Term borrowings 1,042 989 1,000 Deferred tax 1,598 1,384 1,617 Other 272 236 358 Total non-current liabilities 2,912 2,609 2,975 Net assets 4,897 4,524 5,050
22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
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22 FEBRUARY 2017 MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED Interim results presentation for the six months ended 31 December 2016
Acquired generation volumes buy-side electricity derivatives excluding the buy-side of virtual asset swaps Average generation price the volume weighted average price received for Meridian’s physical generation Average retail contracted sales price volume weighted average electricity price received from retail customers, less distribution costs Average wholesale contracted sales price volume weighted average electricity price received from wholesale customers, including NZAS Combined catchment infl flows combined water inflows into Meridian’s Waitaki and Waiau hydro storage lakes Cost of acquired generation volume weighted average price Meridian pays for derivatives acquired to supplement generation Cost to supply contracted sales volume weighted average price Meridian pays to supply contracted customer sales Contracts for Diffference (CFDs) an agreement between parties to pay the difference between the wholesale electricity price and an agreed fixed price for a specified volume of electricity. CFDs do not result in the physical supply of electricity Customer connections (NZ) number of installation control points, excluding vacants FRMP financially responsible market participant GWh gigawatt hour. Enough electricity for 125 average New Zealand households for one year Historic average infl flows the historic average combined water inflows into Meridian’s Waitaki and Waiau hydro storage lakes over the last 81 years Historic average storage the historic average level of storage in Meridian’s Waitaki catchment since 1979 HVDC high voltage direct current link between the North and South Islands of New Zealand ICP New Zealand installation control points, excluding vacants ICP switching the number of installation control points changing retailer supplier in New Zealand, recorded in the month the switch was initiated MWh megawatt hour. Enough electricity for one average New Zealand household for 46 days National demand Electricity Authority’s reconciled grid demand www.emi.ea.govt.nz NZAS New Zealand Aluminium Smelters Limited Retail sales volumes contract sales volumes to retail customers, including both non half hourly and half hourly metered customers Sell side derivatives sell-side electricity derivatives excluding the sell-side of virtual asset swaps Virtual Asset Swaps (VAS) CFDs Meridian has with Genesis Energy and Mercury. They do not result in the physical supply of electricity