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Predictable & Sustainable Per Share Growth
T V E : T S X
Predictable & Sustainable Per Share Growth S E P T E M B E R - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Predictable & Sustainable Per Share Growth S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 7 T V E : T S X www.tamarackvalley.ca 1 Forward Looking Information Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking information under
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T V E : T S X
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Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”, “estimate”, “propose”, “project” or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Forward-looking information in this presentation may include, but is not limited to, (i) potential development opportunities and drilling locations, expectations and assumptions concerning the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, decline rates, recovery factors, the successful application of technology and the geological characteristics of properties, (ii) cash flow, (iii) oil & natural gas production growth, (iv) debt and bank facilities, (v) primary and secondary recovery potentials and implementation thereof, (vi) potential acquisitions, (vii) drilling, completion and operating costs, and (viii) realization of anticipated benefits of acquisitions. Forward-looking information is based on a number of factors and assumptions which have been used to develop such information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although the proposed management believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information because there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified in this presentation, assumptions have been made regarding and are implicit in, among other things, expectations and assumptions concerning the performance of existing wells and success obtained in drilling new wells, anticipated expenses, cash flow and capital expenditures and the application of regulatory and royalty regimes. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of all factors and assumptions which have been used. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the proposed management and described in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is made as of the date hereof and the proposed management undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws. The forward looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. This presentation contains the term “net backs” which is not a term recognized under IFRS. This measure is used by the proposed management to help evaluate corporate performance as well as to evaluate acquisitions. Management considers net backs as a key measure as it demonstrates its profitability relative to current commodity prices. Operating net backs are calculated by taking total revenues and subtracting royalties, operating expenses and transportations costs on a per BOE basis. BOE Disclosure The term barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet per barrel (6Mcf/bbl) of natural gas to barrels of oil equivalence is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. All BOE conversions in the report are derived from converting gas to oil in the ratio mix of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In this presentation: (i) mcf means thousand cubic feet; (ii) mcf/d means thousand cubic feet per day (iii) mmcf means million cubic feet; (iv) mmcf/d means million cubic feet per day; (v) bbls means barrels; (vi) mbbls means thousand barrels; (vii) mmbbls means million barrels; (viii) bbls/d means barrels per day; (ix) bcf means billion cubic feet; (x) mboe means thousand barrels of oil equivalent; (xi) mmboe means million barrels of oil equivalent and (xii) boe/d means barrels of oil equivalent per day. This presentation is not an offer of the securities for sale in the United States. The securities have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration. This presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any state in whichsuch offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
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larger size than current
through diversity – remain light oil weighted in the highest rate of return plays
sustainability at low prices
areas
compensation plan
Corporate Share price September 5, 2017 $2.46 Shares outstanding (mm) 228 Fully diluted (mm) 238 Market cap (F.D.) ($mm) $560 Net debt at June 30, 2017 ($mm) $152 Available bank line ($mm) $265 Percentage drawn (%) 58% Enterprise value (F.D.) ($mm) $712
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What we said we would accomplish: What we accomplished:
program
Q2 Financial highlights: Q2 Operational highlights:
1.1 times
per share growth
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2016Actuals 2017 Forecast YOY % Increase H1 2017 Actuals Average pricing $43.32/bbl WTI $49.25/bbl WTI 14%
$51.69/bbl $60.00/bbl 16% $62.51/bbl AECO (monthly index) $2.00/GJ $2.45/GJ 23% $2.70/GJ Operating income ($/boe) $16.55 $21.50 – $22.50 30% – 36% $22.85 Cash flow ($/boe)* $16.95 $19.00 – $20.50 12% – 21% $19.64
* Excludes transaction costs ** Q2 2017 numbers for comparative purposes
Average production ($/boe) 10,344 19,000 – 20,000 84% – 93% 18,572 % Liquids 54% 55% – 60% 2% – 11% 58% Exit Q4 avg.production ($/boe) 11,453 22,000 92% 19,336** % Liquids exit production 55% 57% – 62% 4% – 13% 59%**
$64 $140 – $160 118% – 150% $66 Cash flow per share* ($/sh.) $0.52 $0.61 – $0.70 17% – 35%
$57 $165 – $180 189% – 216% $83 Exit debt / cash flow (Q4 annualized) 0.6x < 1.0x
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Oil (US$WTI) H2/17 FX (Cdn$/US$) H2/17 Oil (Cdn$WTI) H2/17 AECO (Cdn$/GJ) H2/17 Funds flow netback ($/boe) Average production (boe/d) Exit Q4 avg. production (boe/d) Funds flow ($mm) Per share Development capital ($mm) Free funds flow ($mm) Total payout ratio (%) Debt to funds flow (12 month trailing) Debt to funds flow (Q4 annualized) @ $45.00 $0.80 $56.25 $2.55 $15.75 22,000 22,500 $127 $0.56 ($127) $nil 100% 1.3x 1.3x @ $50.00 $0.80 $62.50 $2.55 $19.07 22,000 22,500 $153 $0.67 ($127) $26 83% 0.9x 0.9x @ $50.00 $0.80 $62.50 $2.55 $19.07 24,200 25,500 $168 $0.74 ($168) $nil 100% 0.9x 0.8x
10-15% leverage neutral
@ $48.50 $0.80 $57.70 $2.29 $19.00 - $20.50 19,000 - 20,000 22,000 $140 - $160 $0.61 - $0.70 ($165) - ($180) $nil 103% - 129% <1.1x <1.0x
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Term Hedge Type Volume Cdn Pricing
July 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017 WTI fixed price 2,700 bbls/d Cdn $69.24/bbl October 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017 WTI fixed price 2,600 bbls/d Cdn $71.52/bbl January 1, 2018 to March 31, 2018 WTI fixed price 800 bbls/d Cdn $73.72/bbl January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018 WTI fixed price extendable 500 bbls/d US $52.00/bbl
Term Hedge Type Volume Cdn Pricing
July 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017 AECO fixed price swap 25,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.65/GJ October 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017 AECO fixed price swap 25,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.91/GJ January 1, 2018 to March 31, 2018 AECO fixed price swap 25,000 GJ/d Cdn $3.16/GJ
H2 2017 average Cdn $2.78/GJ H2 2017 average Cdn $70.36/bbl
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$21,225 $51,590 $21,845 $26,740 $18,000 37% 52% 34% 38% 32%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 To July 17'
Capital Efficiency % Corp. Decline
Capital Efficiency* ($boepd)
2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Acquisitions / (Dispositions) ($0.3) $134.9 $45.2 $84.0 $0.9 Facilities, Land and Other** $18.9 $38.7 $27.2 $15.7 $16.9 Drilling, Completions & Equip $38.9 $115.3 $35.0 $41.1 $65.8 Total Capex $57.5 $288.9 $107.4 $140.8 $83.6 Drilling, Completions & Equip % 68% 40% 33% 29% 79%
Acquired Wilson Creek Assets Acquired Wilson Creek Assets Acquired Redwater and Penny Assets
Decline Rate (%)
* Full-cycle basis including asset acquisitions, excluding corporate transactions
Closed Spur Acquisition Jan 11/17
Historic acquisition capital had set Tamarack up with over 7 years of capital efficient locations
** Land include Taqa farm-in carry costs
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VIKING OIL CARDIUM OIL
Edmonton Lloydminster Calgary Saskatoon Regina
Penny Barons Sand Wilson Creek Redwater Alder Flats
Lethbridge
Hoosier Lochend Q2 2017 Production BOE/D % Liquids Cardium oil 9,094 54% Viking oil 7,270 67% Penny oil 1,240 71% Other 1,732 37% Total 19,336 59%
H1/17 Capital Drills (net) Capex ($ millions) % Cardium oil 6.3 $28.9 35 Viking oil 37.0 $41.3 50 Other 5.0 $12.5 15 Total 48.3 $82.7 Milton Veteran
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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Production (boe/d)
2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Operating netback ($/boe) $43.32 $21.58 $18.90 $24.55 Un-risked Half Cycle Economics Wilson Creek 2-mile Wilson Creek 1.5 Mile Tier 1 Wilson Creek 1.5-mile Tier 2 Alder Flats 1.5-mile High GOR Net locations (1-mile equivalent) 52 15 40 31 Capital ($000s) $3,760* $2,975 $2,975 $2,975 IP365 (boe/d) (liquid weighting) 283 (84%) 201 (79%) 174 (78%) 285 (30%) Reserves (mboe) 265 191 175 268 Finding costs ($/boe) $14.22 $15.50 $16.97 $9.14 NAV PV10BT ($000s) $2,901 $2,322 $1,871 $1,810 Payout (years) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 ROR 105% 92% 65% 77%
Flat commodity price assumptions at $58/bbl Edm par or $45.65/bbl US WTI and $2.50/GJ AECO. * Assumes 75-85 stage fracture completion
Cardium ERH wells in H2/17
years payback or better based on 2017 activity
pipeline infrastructure
2014 2015 2016 2017
Closed Suncor acquisition Closed PWT acquisition
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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2 4 6 8 10
OIL PRODUCTION (BBLS/D) MONTHS
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Oil Rate (bbl/d) Cumulative Oil Production (bbls) 55-60 Stages 75-80 Stages 110-120 Stages New Type Curve Original Type Curve
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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 H1 2017 Operating netback ($/boe) $25.48 $21.56 $26.15 Un-risked Half Cycle Economics Veteran Consort
Milton Net ERH locations (3/4-mile) 351 134 122 59 Capital ($000s) $735 $725 $750 $750 IP365 (boe/d) (liquid weighting) 58 (89%) 50 (74%) 80 (76%) 70 (71%) Reserves (mboe) 62 54 58 54 Finding costs ($/boe) $11.85 $13.42 $12.99 $13.34 NAV PV10BT ($000s) 940 431 613 525 Payout (years) 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.1 ROR 117% 49% 116% 81%
payback or better based on 2017 activity
determine benefits H2/17
Production (boe/d)
Flat commodity price assumptions at $58/bbl Edm par or $45.65/bbl US WTI and $2.50/GJ AECO. 2015 2016 2017
Redwater Viking Closed Spur
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Q1/17 drills Q3/17 drills Q1 infrastructure Q3 infrastructure
disposal costs
UPPER VIKING UPPER SST-THICKER, TIGHT PERMEABILITY HAMILTON LAKE HIGHER PERMEABILITY ZONE WATER FLOODED IN 80’S
By drilling into the Viking and fracking into the Hamilton Lake, wells benefit from underlying pressure support.
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‘typical’ Viking
but too early to quantify the magnitude
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 5000 10000 15000 20000 Oil Rate (bbl/d) Cumulative Production - Bbls
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 2017 TVE Wells
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Oil Rate (bbl/d) Cumulative Production - Bbls 2017 TVE Wells Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6 Tier 7 Well Count
Veteran upside is still being quantified
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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2017-01-05 2017-02-05 2017-03-05 2017-04-05 2017-05-05 2017-06-05 2017-07-05 2017-08-05
BOE/d
Base Prod'n 2017 Drills - Oil 2017 Drills - Gas Acquisition Forecast
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400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
$30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00
Quick Payback Drilling Inventory
Payout 1.5 Years or Less
Viking Hatton Penny Mannville Cardium GLJ 2P Booked locations $26.90 $34.90 $42.85 $50.80 $58.75 $66.75 $74.70 WTI USD/bbl
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157 556 748 1,179 1,046 950
363 310 272 193 111 34
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Current drilling inventory for payouts of 3.0 years or less
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years (Wilson Creek Cardium and Redwater Viking, Penny)
accelerate growth quickly
and beyond
(<1.0 times debt to Q4/17 annualized cash flow)
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Objectives for H2 2017 …
Achieve production guidance by averaging 19,500 – 21,000 boe/d on $80-95million CAPEX. Drill 35-40 ERH Veteran and six Milton Viking oil wells, seven 2-mile and two 1.5-mile Cardium oil wells in Wilson Creek. Complete reserve per well assessment in Veteran; complete fracture stage density study on 2-mile Cardium wells. Achieve oil weighting target of at least 52%. Resolve third party issues to bring back on 750 boe/d: Trans Gas Coleville and Lexin Quaich. Implement initial Waterflood pilots in Veteran/Consort; submit Waterflood applications. Receive regulatory approval from IOGC for water injection in Penny; drill 1-2 Hz wells
What we said we would do What we did in H1 2017…
Average 18,500 –19,000 boe/d H1/17 on $75 million capex resulting in capital efficiency of ~$19,000/boepd on 32-33% corporate decline rate. Averaged 18,872 boe/d (with 1,070 boe/d curtailed due to third party downtime) on $83 million capex resulting in capital efficiency of ~$18,000/boepd on 32% corporate decline. Integrate new Spur assets; execute 30-35 net well Q1/17 Viking oil drilling program. Drilled 37 Viking oil wells. ImplementQ1/17 learnings into H2/17 90-100 well Viking oil drilling program; plan to reduce capital costs per well to target $650k ½-mile well. Converted all Viking inventory to ¾-mile wells with upsized pumping equip $735k/well; Veteran water disposal & oil battery expansion completed; changed completion design. Increase Corporate oil weighting from 45% in Q4/16 to 48-49% in Q2/17, resulting in increased corporate netbacks per boe. Increasedoil weighting to 51%. Complete Spur third party reserve report effective Jan 31/17 and disclose pro-forma reserves with TVE year-end reserve report in 2017 AIF by March 24th. Completedwith in time-line objectives. Develop highesteconomic exploitation plan for Viking oil: optimal well densities, ERH applications, deliver waterflood study. Optimized drilling orientation with all go forward drilling now ERH; completed subsurface waterflood plan, now working on long-term plan Deliver new royalty program in Penny for summer drilling program. Agreementwith First Nations in place to permit horizontal drilling
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666 (35) (16) (75) 647 93 52 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Acquisition Q1 Drills Technical ERH Conv. New Vet 150m June 2017
+9%
639 (34) (12) 506 37 94 48 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Acquisition Q1 Drills Technical ERH Conv. New Vet 150m June 2017
+35%
50 km other Viking locations unchanged
41.0 2.1 0.6 0.4 34.8 6.1 3.2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Acquisition Q1 Drills Technical ERH Conv. New Vet 150m June 2017
+25%
2.8 mmboe other Viking Locations unchanged
618 (34) (11) (58) 564 93 64 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Acquisition Q1 Drills Technical ERH Conv. New Vet 150m June 2017
+17%
$40mm other Viking locations unchanged 72 other Viking locations unchanged
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50 100 150 200 250 300 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 Oil Production (bbls/d) Days On Production Increased Pumping Equipment H2/2017 Wells Veteran Field Average Q1 Type Curve Q2 Type Curve To Be Optimized
IP60 105 bbls/d average for H2/17 drills 58% increase to average production for wells that had pump upgrades
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2014 2015 2016 H1 2017 Operating netback ($/boe) $19.94 $6.98 $2.96 $4.26 Un-risked Half Cycle Economics Hatton Wilson Creek Mannville Gas Penny Barons Net locations 12 37 21 Capital ($M) $750 $2,785 $2,880 IP365 (boe/d) (liquid weighting) 167 (93%) 472 (17%) 130 (92%) Reserves (Mboe) 103 627 212 Finding costs ($/boe) $7.25 $4.44 $13.62 NAV PV10BT ($M) $680 $2,901 $2,793 Payout (years) 0.9 1.2 2.2 ROR 158% 85% 49%
Wilson Creek infrastructure – only burdened with variable cost of $1.75/boe
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Production (boe/d)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Production (boe/d)
2016 H1 2017 Operating netback ($/boe) $7.43 $13.66
Flat commodity price assumptions at $58/bbl Edm par or $45.65/bbl US WTI and $2.50/GJ AECO. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017