Problem Structuring Masterclass
Wednesday 15th March 2017 Leeds
e: academy@yhahsn.nhs.uk / t: 01274 383966 www.improvementacademy.org
Problem Structuring Masterclass Wednesday 15 th March 2017 Leeds - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Problem Structuring Masterclass Wednesday 15 th March 2017 Leeds e: academy@yhahsn.nhs.uk / t: 01274 383966 www.improvementacademy.org @improvementacademy Housekeeping Welcome and introduction Professor Mohammed A Mohammed Professor of
Wednesday 15th March 2017 Leeds
e: academy@yhahsn.nhs.uk / t: 01274 383966 www.improvementacademy.org
Professor of Healthcare, Quality & Effectiveness, University of Bradford
Dr Daniel Chalk Research Fellow in Applied Healthcare Modelling and Analysis PenCHORD @penclahrcOR
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
1) How long (on average) do you think a patient spends in the ED now? (Imagine an average
2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make (get rid of a nurse or a cubicle?), so as to minimise the impact on the time patients spend in the ED? 3) What do you predict is going to be the impact of your decision on the average time patients spend in the ED? (ie how much longer do you think patients will spend in the ED as a result of your decision?)
Nurses
Treatment Cubicles
every 8 minutes
be registered once they are seen at the desk
be triaged once they are seen by a Senior Nurse
to be treated once a cubicle is free
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Base Case Scenario A model of the current system. How are things running now? We can use this to see how well the current system works, validate the model and identify bottlenecks. 1) How long (on average) do you think a patient spends in the ED now? 2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make? “What If” Analysis Adapting the model to reflect potential future scenarios. How might things run if we were to change x, y and / or z? We can use this to predict the impact of decisions, and help the decision maker to make an informed evidence-based decision. 2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make? 3) What do you predict is going to be the impact of your decision on the average time patients spend in the ED?
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Answers from the model : 1) How long (on average) do you think a patient spends in the ED now? ~91 minutes 2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make so as to minimise the impact on the time patients spend in the ED? 3) What do you predict is going to be the impact of your decision
Removal of 1 nurse : ~3 minute increase Removal of 1 cubicle : ~231 minute (~4 hours!) increase
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Answers from the model : 1) How long (on average) do you think a patient spends in the ED now? ~91 minutes 2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make so as to minimise the impact on the time patients spend in the ED? Removal of 1 nurse 3) What do you predict is going to be the impact of your decision
Removal of 1 nurse : ~3 minute increase Removal of 1 cubicle : ~231 minute (~4 hours!) increase
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Answers from the model : 1) How long (on average) do you think a patient spends in the ED now? ~91 minutes 2) What cost-saving decision are you going to make so as to minimise the impact on the time patients spend in the ED? Removal of 1 nurse 3) What do you predict is going to be the impact of your decision
Removal of 1 nurse : ~3 minute increase Removal of 1 cubicle : ~231 minute (~4 hours!) increase
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord.php Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk
Research and Care
– 1st phase 2009-13 nine CLAHRCs in the England – 2nd phase 2014-18 thirteen CLAHRCs
Information Visualisation Mathematical Models
“… we were unable to reach any conclusions on the value of modelling in health care because the evidence of implementation was so scant.”
Fone D, Hollinghurst S, Temple M et al. Systematic review of the use and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery. J Publ Health Med 2003; 25: 325-335
OR: Many relevant approaches/tools. Solutions/tools Guidance/Collaboration Empowerment/Learning Needs Data Resources
Need for:
from trusts etc.
Modelling in Health and Social Care
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Module 2 : Geographic Modelling
potential applications of geographic modelling
calculations
in Excel
to predict the impact of service closures, and assess the optimal location for services
geographic modelling
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Modelling in Health and Social Care
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula The HSMA :
impact of changes to pathways or changes to resource capacities
packages, such as Simul8 (licence provided by Simul8 Corporation)
guidance to support the completion of projects and ongoing skills development
experiences and support
at the PenCHORD Seminar, Showcase and Workshop series
helps to raise awareness of Operational Research and the capacity building initiatives run by PenCHORD and the wider CLAHRC
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula Royal Cornwall Hospitals Trust What are the current bottlenecks within the acute eye service, and how can we improve? Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust How would the addition of a Clinical Decision Unit (CDU) affect patient flow and waiting times at R D & E? South West Ambulance Service Trust What are the bottlenecks in getting cardiac arrest patients to definitive care? Devon Partnership Trust How do we reduce delayed discharge in the Mental Health Acute Care pathway? Northern Devon Healthcare Trust Modelling A & E flow rates at North Devon District Hospital Plymouth Hospitals NHS Trust What would be the impact of various strategies to improve weekend discharge rates?
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord.php Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR @penclahrc
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
In pairs / small groups :
structuring methods?
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
CONCEPTUAL VALIDITY OPERATIONAL VALIDITY EXPERIMENTAL VALIDITY LOGICAL VALIDITY FORMAL MODELLING ANALYSIS & CONCEPTUALISATION IMPLEMENTATION OBTAINING SOLUTIONS
PROBLEM SITUATION FORMAL MODEL CONCEPTUAL MODEL SOLUTION
DATA VALIDITY
The modelling-validating process (Landry, Malouin and Oral 1983, p.212)
52
The Modelling Process
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
CONCEPTUAL VALIDITY OPERATIONAL VALIDITY EXPERIMENTAL VALIDITY LOGICAL VALIDITY FORMAL MODELLING ANALYSIS & CONCEPTUALISATION IMPLEMENTATION OBTAINING SOLUTIONS
PROBLEM SITUATION FORMAL MODEL CONCEPTUAL MODEL SOLUTION
DATA VALIDITY
The modelling-validating process (Landry, Malouin and Oral 1983, p.212)
53
The Modelling Process Modules 1 and 2
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
CONCEPTUAL VALIDITY OPERATIONAL VALIDITY EXPERIMENTAL VALIDITY LOGICAL VALIDITY FORMAL MODELLING ANALYSIS & CONCEPTUALISATION IMPLEMENTATION OBTAINING SOLUTIONS
PROBLEM SITUATION FORMAL MODEL CONCEPTUAL MODEL SOLUTION
DATA VALIDITY
The modelling-validating process (Landry, Malouin and Oral 1983, p.212)
54
The Modelling Process Modules 1 and 2 Module 3
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
systems
to solve it
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Question
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Question
Scope
required)
is the world view?)
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Question
Scope
required)
is the world view?) Constraints and Assumptions
knowledge?
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Question
Scope
required)
is the world view?) Constraints and Assumptions
knowledge?
Resources and Stakeholders
etc) do you have to solve the problem?
affected by the solving this problem?
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Question
Scope
required)
is the world view?) Constraints and Assumptions
knowledge?
Resources and Stakeholders
etc) do you have to solve the problem?
affected by the solving this problem? Methods
solving the problem?
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
structuring messy problems
Operational Research’), because they tend to use qualitative rather than quantitative methods.
Messy Problem Structured Problem Mathematical Model / Simulation PSMs
Math / In-Silico Modelling
Solution “What If?” Analysis
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk #thisisOR
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Step 3 : Presenting your Chosen Problems to the Room
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk #thisisOR
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
What is it? A way to model the flows between the various components of a high-level or abstracted system What is its typical use in health and social care modelling? Modelling larger scale health and social care systems, and the flows of patients between providers in the system Modelling the inter-connected influencing factors that lead to a “trigger” (e.g. admission, ambulance call etc)
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula Number of people accessing GP services Waiting time to see GP + Number of people admitted to hospital Number of beds available in hospital
the waiting time to see a GP increases (Both go in the same direction) As the number of people admitted to hospital increases, the number of beds available in the hospital decreases (Each goes in opposite directions)
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula Waiting time to see GP Number of sick people in the community Number of people accessing GP services + + +
Reinforcing Loops have an even number of (or zero) minus signs. Therefore the same conclusion is reached each time you loop.
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula Waiting time to see GP Number of sick people in the community Number of people accessing GP services + + +
Reinforcing Loops have an even number of (or zero) minus signs. Therefore the same conclusion is reached each time you loop.
Number of people attending A & E +
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula Number of beds available in hospital Capacity to admit patients Number of people admitted to hospital
+
Balancing Loops have an odd number of minus signs. Therefore a contradictory conclusion is reached each time you loop.
Exercise 1 : Qualitative System Dynamics (Total Time = 2 hours) 1. In your pairs, take your first problem. Write down the problem as a problem statement. Make sure this is a problem, and not a question, or a potential solution. 2. Spend 5 minutes listing as many factors as you can think of that are directly contributing to the problem. 3. Once you’ve done this, start to map out these factors, identifying how each contributes to your problem (directionality
influenced by any of the factors you have already identified. Then ask if there are other relevant factors not yet identified that it influences or is influenced by. You will have 30 minutes to do this. 4. Then spend 20 minutes identifying the reinforcing and balancing loops in your model. What insights can you draw from this? 5. After this, change over and do the same for your other problem. 6. At the end of the exercise, we will ask selected pairs to present their models and insights to the room.
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Influence Interest High Interest High Influence Low Interest High Influence High Interest Low Influence Low Interest Low Influence
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Influence Interest PLAYERS Key players - Engage closely SUBJECTS Keep satisfied CONTEXT SETTERS Keep informed CROWD Monitor (minimal effort)
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Influence Interest
Stakeholder B Stakeholder A Stakeholder C
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
you’ll now build a Stakeholder Interest / Influence Diagram for each of your problems.
= 60 minutes). At the end of the exercise, selected individuals will present their diagrams. Remember, to identify stakeholders think about : 1) Who owns the problem? 2) Who might benefit from its solution? 3) Who might suffer from its solution? 4) Who has a legitimate interest in the problem and / or its solution? 5) Who has the power to influence the process of solving the problem and implementing the solution?
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk #thisisOR
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Inputs Outputs
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Activity / Process / Sub-Process Decision Point / Question
Flow (and direction of flow)
Activity / Process / Sub-Process
Flow if Decision A made Entry point to system Exit point from system Flow if Decision B made
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Registration Triage Treatment Admit? Yes No HIGH-LEVEL
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Patient queues LOW-LEVEL Is it Monday ? Julie signs in patient with red folder Yes
Is it an odd numbered month?
No John signs in patient with blue folder Yes No Derek collates red and blue folders etc…
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Three ingredients : 1) Sticky notes 2) Large sheet(s)
3) Two or more people who have a view about the system you’re mapping
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
now build a Process Map reflecting the system in wach of your chosen problems.
problem), and then selected individuals will present their diagrams. Remember :
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk #thisisOR
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Dynamics models, Stakeholder Analysis and Process Mapping, you should discuss and come up with the following for each problem :
(modelling? Other? If modelling, which aspects of the system are you looking to model? What would be your “what if” analyses?)
minutes to complete this exercise.
Modelling in Health and Social Care
Module 3 : Structuring Problems for Modelling
Other Problem Structuring Methods / Tools for Thinking
PenCLAHRC @penclahrc #penclahrc #penclahrcOR Join the conversation : PenCHORD Live Wall Stream : penchord.livewallstream.com http://clahrc-peninsula.nihr.ac.uk/penchord Website :
NIHR CLAHRC for the South West Peninsula
PenCHORD @penclahrcOR Email us at : penchord@exeter.ac.uk #thisisOR
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e: academy@yhahsn.nhs.uk / t: 01274 383966 www.improvementacademy.org