Re-building and Recovery
Q1 2010 Results Debt Investor Presentation
Re-building and Recovery Debt Investor Presentation Q1 2010 Results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Re-building and Recovery Debt Investor Presentation Q1 2010 Results Important Information Certain sections in this presentation contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation
Q1 2010 Results Debt Investor Presentation
2
Certain sections in this presentation contain ‘forward-looking statements’ as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements that include the words ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘believes’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (VaR)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, ‘optimistic’, ‘prospects’ and similar expressions or variations on such expressions. In particular, this document includes forward-looking statements relating, but not limited, to: the Group’s restructuring plans, capitalisation, portfolios, capital ratios, liquidity, risk weighted assets, return on equity, cost-to-income ratios, leverage and loan-to-deposit ratios, funding and risk profile; the Group’s future financial performance; the level and extent of future impairments and write-downs; the protection provided by the APS; and the Group’s potential exposures to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity and equity price risk. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. For example, certain of the market risk disclosures are dependent on choices about key model characteristics and assumptions and are subject to various limitations. By their nature, certain of the market risk disclosures are only estimates and, as a result, actual future gains and losses could differ materially from those that have been estimated. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated by the forward-looking statements contained in this document include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions in the UK and in other countries in which the Group has significant business activities or investments, including the United States; developments in the global financial markets, and their impact on the financial industry in general and on the Group in particular; the full nationalisation of the Group or other resolution procedures under the Banking Act 2009; the monetary and interest rate policies of the Bank
and other G7 central banks; inflation; deflation; unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices and equity prices; changes in UK and foreign laws, regulations and taxes, including changes in regulatory capital regulations; a change of UK Government or changes to UK Government policy; changes in the Group’s credit ratings; the Group’s participation in the APS and the effect of such scheme on the Group’s financial and capital position; the conversion of the B Shares in accordance with their terms; the ability to access the contingent capital arrangements with Her Majesty’s Treasury (“HM Treasury”); limitations on, or additional requirements imposed on, the Group’s activities as a result of HM Treasury’s investment in the Group; changes in competition and pricing environments; the financial stability of other financial institutions, and the Group’s counterparties and borrowers; the value and effectiveness of any credit protection purchased by the Group; the extent of future write-downs and impairment charges caused by depressed asset valuations; the ability to achieve revenue benefits and cost savings from the integration of certain of the businesses and assets of RBS Holdings, N.V. (formerly ABN AMRO); natural and
to access sufficient funding to meet liquidity needs; the ability to complete restructurings on a timely basis, or at all, including the disposal of certain non-core assets and assets and businesses required as part of the EC State aid approval; the adequacy of loss reserves; acquisitions or restructurings; technological changes; changes in consumer spending and saving habits; and the success of the Group in managing the risks involved in the foregoing. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation, and the Group does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence
The information, statements and opinions contained in this presentation do not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments.
3
Concluding remarks RBS compared to peers Funding & Liquidity Reducing and managing risk
Introduction to RBS, the strategic vision and Q110 highlights Building blocks of the RBS Recovery External factors Internal metrics Appendices
5
To be one of the world’s most admired, valuable and stable universal banks To return to >15% sustainable RoEs, powered by market-leading businesses in large customer-driven markets The business mix to produce an attractive blend of profitability, stability and sustainable growth – anchored in the UK and in retail and commercial banking together with customer driven wholesale banking, and with credible growth prospects geographically and by business line Management hallmarks to include an open, investor-friendly approach, discipline and proven execution effectiveness, strong risk management and a central focus on the customer To deliver its strategy from a stable AA category risk profile and balance sheet
RBS’s 2013 vision
6
Focus on UK and US franchises, and move balance of Group towards UK Retail and Commercial businesses Resize and refocus GBM on corporate and financial institutions franchises and core locations Reposition other overseas businesses to align with Group competencies and reduce risk Use smaller balance sheet with much less wholesale funding reliance Understand and manage down our Non- Core bank effectively A cost base that is reduced, controlled and transparent Returns and balance sheet use targeted and measured A strong risk management organisation and processes A management framework and incentives to reward longer-term performance Management and accounting mechanisms for Non-Core assets
A reshaped business New management disciplines RBS’s Strategic Plan
7
2011 Return to Group profitability Initial cost reduction programmes completed Interest rates start to rise 2009 Formation of the Strategic Plan Creation of Non-Core £2.5bn cost saving programme announced Business restructuring and reinvestment New Management and Board APS entered into and Recapitalisation completed ‘Tools for the job’ in place 2010 Execution and implementation phase of the plan ‘Roll up our sleeves’ Economic recovery takes hold Retail & Commercial starts to rebound Ongoing revenue and cost initiatives Completion of Non-Core run- down 2013 targets achieved – Returns – Risk – Franchise
Core profits build, Non-Core losses fall
2011 onwards Target >15% RoE
Strategic plan timeline
8
1 As at 1 January 2008. 2 As at October 2008 3
Amount of unsecured wholesale funding under 1 year. 2009 includes £109bn of bank deposits and £141bn of other wholesale funding. 2013 target is for <£65bn
cash, government issued securities and other securities eligible with central banks. 6 Funded tangible assets divided by Tier 1 Capital. 7 As at June 2008 8 Group return on tangible equity for 2008 9 Indicative Core attributable profit taxed at 28% on attributable core spot tangible equity (c70% of Group tangible equity based on RWAs). 10 2008
Key performance indicator Worst point FY 09 Actual 2013 Target
Core Tier 1 Capital 4%(1) 11.0% >8% Loan : deposit ratio (net of provisions) 154%(2) 135% c100% Wholesale funding reliance(3) £343bn(4) £250bn <£150bn Liquidity reserves(5) £90bn(4) £171bn c£150bn Leverage ratio(6) 28.7x(7) 17.0x <20x Return on Equity (RoE) (31%)(8) Core 13%(9) >15% Cost : income ratio net of claims 97%(10) Core 53% Core <50%
Q1 10 Actual
10.6% 131% £222bn £165bn 17.6x Core 15%(9) Core 54%
Current position versus 2013 targets
9
Core Business (Retail & Commercial, GBM, GTS and Insurance)
– Core customer franchises remain strong – UK Retail now serves >12.8m current account customers – Operating profit: £2.3bn, +92% vs Q409 driven by seasonally strong results in GBM and improving Retail & Commercial trends – ROE: 15%, in line with long run targets – NIM: 2.11%, +5bps vs Q409 driven by GBM – Credit profile: ongoing improvement, impairment losses reduced 25% q-o-q to £971m – RWAs: £421bn, +7%, driven by ABN AMRO migration
Group Profile
– Group operating profit of £713m vs loss of £1.4bn Q409 – Impairments: £2.7bn, -14% q-o-q driven by improvements in Core and Non-Core – Non-Core run off: tracking to plan, a further 4% (£8bn) reduction in TPAs in Q1 – Core Tier 1 ratio 10.6%, RBS remains a highly capitalised bank – Good progress made against key metrics published in our Strategic Plan
1 Note: All financial information contained in these materials in relation to the performance of the Group in the first quarter of the calendar year 2010, and comparisons of such data with the fourth quarter of the calendar year 2009, the first quarter of the calendar year 2009 or any other period, are extracted without amendment from the announcement on 7 May 2010 of the financial results
Group for the end of the first quarter of the calendar year 2010 in its Interim Management Statement Q1 2010, disseminated to the London Stock Exchange via RNS announcement on that date.
Core Business (Retail & Commercial, GBM, GTS and Insurance) Group profile
10
Funding
– Short Term wholesale funding reduced to £222bn (£128bn excluding bank deposits) in Q1 2010, on the way to target of under £150bn in 2013 –
– Re-introducing issuance of different currencies to the funding platform and building the yield curve in existing markets for RBS name – Limited impact of run-off of Government funding schemes. Asset reduction outpaces maturities of CGS and SLS – Establishment of an FSA regulated RBS residential mortgage-backed Covered Bond programme launched on April 1st 2010
Liquidity
– Net Stable Funding Ratio1
– Significant increase in liquidity reserves; increasing from £90bn in FY08 to £165bn in Q110, with higher quality
– FSA-eligible government bonds portfolio in the Plc will increase under the current plan from £25bn at Q1 2010 to £50bn at 2013 to strengthen Group liquidity (£1bn FY08, £20bn FY09) – Ongoing collateral enablement effort to expand and diversify secured funding resources
Funding Liquidity
1 Net Stable Funding Ratio measures the level of net stable funding divided by long-term assets (RBS Definition)
12
Internal metrics We have strong franchises in large customer-driven markets Sustained and improving customer satisfaction levels Remain well capitalised and can deliver our funding plan Non-Core run-off drives the decline in risk concentrations and wholesale funding reliance Strategic plan, investment and income initiatives drive sustainable growth We can deliver good cost efficiency Liability margins to improve – asset margins to hold Management execute the plan well and drive cultural change Impairments trend to “normalised” levels External factors World economic recovery continues Strong but rational competition going forward Interest rates normalise Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
What are the necessary external factors and internal metrics to achieve the plan?
13
14
Current position
Possible risks
and market developments
World economic recovery continues
and return targets
concentrated
be reflected as interest rates normalise
without moving to exceed cost of capital (CoE 10-15%)
Strong but rational competition going forward
markets
increased returns
Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
it alone’
and operated in line with shareholder best practice
Government policy
taxes and levies and Basel III capital / liquidity proposals
fees
15
16
Our franchises have sustained market positions, with customer numbers steady or growing
1 2010 Greenwich Associates H209 data (Large Corporate Banking study), rankings relate to Total Relationships. 2 Partnership, broker and other policies
UK Retail >12.8m current accounts 10m savings accounts #2 Current Accounts £4.9bn £89.4bn Q1 Customer Numbers Market Positions Income FY09 Deposits Q110 UK Corporate 1.2m Business, Commercial & Corporate customers #1 SME #1 Corporate & Commercial £3.6bn £91.4bn Wealth 258,000 UK Wealth customers #1 Private Banking in the UK £1.1bn £36.4bn GBM #1 UK, #3 Europe, #6 USA, #7 APAC1 Top tier in key product areas £11.0bn £47.0bn Ulster 1.9m customer accounts #1 in Northern Ireland #3 in island of Ireland £1.0bn £23.7bn US R&C 3.9m Retail 0.5m SME & Corporate Top 5 in 8 of top 10 markets in which we operate £2.7bn £62.5bn Insurance 11.1m own brand policies 6.6m other policies2 #1 Motor insurance £4.5bn n.a. GTS >1.2m customers #5 Trade Finance #4 Merchant Acquirer £2.5bn £64.6bn
We have strong franchises in large customer-driven markets
17
Current Position
Margin To achieve the plan:
Current new business asset margins hold steady Interest rates rise towards end of plan period
Group NIM 1.92% 1.83% R&C NIM1 3.01% 3.01% Q110 Q409
Outlook
Overall margin Liability margins R&C margin GBM margin Non-Core margin Impact of funding & liquidity Overall deposit margin 2011-13 Asset margins Possible risks:
Irrational competition Interest rates remain near zero for extended
period GBM 1.11% 0.89% Non-Core 1.25% 1.17%
1 Underlying, adjusted for days in month; 2.97% (Q110) and 3.04% (Q409) on a reported basis
Liability margins to improve – asset margins to hold
18
Investment - major programmes underway Non Interest Income - Leveraging for growth
Investment In systems, proposition, technologies and staff Cross-sell Leverage group capabilities e.g:
New affluent proposition in UK Retail GBM Capital Market products in UK
Corporate
New Bancassurance platform in Ulster GTS products available across the
corporate franchise Customer relationships Leveraging client relationships e.g:
GBM – deepening corporate and FI
relationships, focus on core clients
Retail & Commercial – increasing share
5 year spend > £6bn to foster growth & efficiency Example projects:
Multi-channel / internet development – c12% of spend
– UK Retail; build new channel platforms & capabilities – UK Retail; migrate customers to remote channels & improve productivity – GTS; on-line portals/cash mgt/trade services
Reduce cost to serve – c55% of spend
– Group - process efficiencies across business areas – GBM - automation of operational processes
Improve MI systems – c4% of spend Improve & integrate infrastructure – c10% of spend
– UK Retail – new sales management platform – GBM – enhanced trading platforms
Strategic plan, investment and income initiatives drive sustainable growth
19
FY09 Cost reduction programme Impact of Disposals Inflation Volume and
Core costs broadly flat over the planning horizon Impact of inflation & volume growth in Core offset by business re-investment & cost reduction Rump of Non-Core costs of c£300-400m expected in 2013, falling away rapidly thereafter Target cost:income ratio of less than 50%
15.0 2.4 17.4 Non-Core Core £bn Non-Core roll-off
1 Includes FX impact
We can deliver good cost efficiency
20
Trend back towards historic levels Historic levels flattered by high loan growth
in 2003-07 period
Large Non-Core impairment reduction as
portfolio runs off – small impairment charges remain in 2013-14
Recovery path not sustained Event risk – individual significant shocks
Outlook Possible Risks Impairments – returning to normalised levels Impairment as a % of net L&A ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 2003-07 avg: 0.5% 1998-2008 avg: 0.6% ~‘13 1.1% 2.5%
Non-Core Core £bn 9.2 4.7 % of L&A 5.7 1.1
Impairments trend to “normalised” levels
22
23
Risk agenda – delivering the 5 year plan with strong risk management
Strategy & Policy Alignment – risk & business strategy Group policy framework Capital / risk adjusted performance Risk Architecture Risk systems Risk data architecture Analytics and modelling Risk information & reporting Operating model Governance Organisation, people & culture One risk community Regulatory and operational risk coverage Risk Appetite & Framework Credit approval Market risk limits and controls Risk concentrations Country risk Scenario testing
New Head of Restructuring & Risk appointed in H1 2009 bringing significant changes to senior leadership in risk management function Adoption of new, enhanced risk management framework and architecture including appointment of Board Risk Committee and Executive Risk Forum (ERF) Disciplined RWA usage in the Core bank (value not volume) and total balance sheet size controlled and liquidity surprise avoided Introduction of new and enhanced risk concentration limits – reduced single name, sector and country limits Appointment of Board Risk Committee and Executive Risk Forum (ERF) Ongoing work to fully embed improved risk management framework
The Group has seen significant change in risk culture and process
Ongoing work to fully embed improved risk management framework including new reporting systems to increase transparency
24
Counterparty credit market exposures Total assets held by sponsored conduits
£bn
FY08 FY09 Q110 Monolines CDPCs
8.3 2.6 2.5
Group Credit Risks (REILs1) Significant reduction in exposure to monolines and CDPCs since FY08 Exposure to loss from sponsored conduits has also been managed down NPLs2 are showing signs of stabilisation however
Provisions as a percentage of NPLs2 have increased from 43% at FY09 to 46% as at Q110
£bn
Stabilising but our outlook remains cautious
20 40 60 FY07 FY08 H109 Q309 FY09 Q110 £bn
FY08 Q209 Q309 FY09 Q110 Core Non Core
49.9 35.0 30.5 27.4 24.1
1 Risk Elements In Lending 2 Non Performing Loans
Risk profile – worst should be past
25
1 Country and Sector charts are based on Credit Risk Assets – see Report and Accounts for further details. Country chart shows ten largest countries rated A+ or below by domicile of borrower.
limits in place
proactive management of both Core and Non-Core exposures
but more remains to be done
economies reduced
<£1bn of credit risk assets and
debt securities (as at 31/3/10)
Sector1 Country1
Dec 2008 Dec 2008
Top 10 A+ and lower countries by credit risk assets Top 10 Corporate industry sectors by credit risk assets
2 4 6 8 10 12 Italy India China Turkey South Korea Russia Poland Mexico Romania Portugal £bn
20 40 60 80 100 120 £bn
Transport & Storage Wholesale & Retail Tourism & Leisure Power, Water & Waste Natural Resources & Nuclear Property Manufacturing TMT Public Sector Building March 2010 March 2010
Portfolio concentrations continue to reduce
26 100 200 300 400 500 600 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Group credit trends, Q109 – Q110
Units globally, Q408-Q110 (monthly average)
Impairments as a % of gross L&A (annualised) REILs
1
Average value transferred Other1 Transport & Storage Manufacturing Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Property Average value transferred inc Ulster Transfer to GRG reflecting revised management of Ulster non-core property portfolio
£bn NPLs increased by 4% No individual large names in Q1 Ulster Bank Core & Non-Core drove Q1 growth Q1 continues previous trends seen in 2009 No large individual cases Uptick in commercial customers having problems – classic late cycle phenomenon
1 Other is spread across a large number of sectors and includes TMT, Tourism & Leisure and Business Services
Impairments appear to have peaked in Q209 but remain elevated
27
28
final terms of APS
additional sales
Rollovers & drawings Impairments Asset sales
Breakdown of changes in TPAs 2009-2013
Non Core third party assets (TPAs excluding derivatives & Sempra) run-off targets, £bn
252 143 118 82 1871 20-40 2013 13 2012 19 2011 23 2010 29 2009 36 2008 85
TPAs Undrawn commitments
Run-off FX (60)-(80) (20)-(30) 20-30 (110)-(130) (10)-(20)
1 Excluding Sempra which had £14bn of assets as at 31 December 2009
Run-off is key to reducing risk on the balance sheet
29
£bn
Run-Off Disposals Impairments FY 09
track for FY2010
1 Third party assets excluding Sempra, excluding mark to market derivatives 2 Run-off, MTM, disposals, impairments and FX
187 Mvmt2 FY08 FX Q110 (2) (2) (9) 5 179 252 (65)
Significant progress already achieved on Non-Core run-off
30
1 Excluding MTM derivatives and Sempra
Based on data from RBS risk systems
Total Assets = £252bn Total Assets = £187bn
2008 Y/E TPAs1 by asset class
Project & Export Finance £21.3bn Asset Finance £24.2bn Leveraged Finance £15.9bn Corp & Warehouse Loans £41.6bn UK £26.0bn Ireland £9.9bn Rest of Europe £15.1bn US £7.3bn APAC £2.9bn Structured Credit Portfolio £20.1bn Equities £5.0bn Credit Collateral Financing £8.6bn Exotic Credit Trading £1.4bn Other £6.2bn UK Mortgages & Personal Lending £3.2bn US Mortgages & Personal Lending £11.0bn Ireland Mortgages £6.5bn RBS Insurance £2.0bn Retail & Commercial Countries £6.7bn Bank of China / Linea Directa £4.5bn Other Whole businesses £4.2bn ABN AMRO Shared Assets £1.5bn Asset Management £1.9bn
Corporate Commercial Property Markets Retail Other
2009 Y/E TPAs1 by asset class
Project & Export Finance £20.6bn Asset Finance £22.2bn Leveraged Finance £13.1bn Corp & Warehouse Loans £23.2bn UK £23.6bn Ireland £8.1bn Europe £13.0bn US £4.7bn APAC £2.3bn Structured Credit Portfolio £14.9bn Equities £2.0n Credit Collateral Financing £4.8bn Other £2.9bn UK Mortgages & Personal Lending £2.4bn US Mortgages & Personal Lending £7.8bn Ireland Mortgages £6.1bn
Corporate Commercial Property Markets Retail Other 12 16 25 52 3 79
RBS Insurance £1.5bn Retail & Commercial Countries £4.3bn Other Whole Businesses £3.3bn ABN AMRO Shared Assets £1.3bn Asset Management £1.6bn
SME
UK SME £2.3bn US SME £1.6bn
SME
UK SME £1.9bn US SME £0.9bn
21 21 41 61 103 4
Good run-off progression across all asset classes
31
Property Manufacturing Other Corporate Mortgages Other personal Other Total Non-Core
Q109 Q309 Q409 Q110
Non-Core impairments by asset type Q109, Q409 & Q1102, £bn 1.8 1.7
Q110 £m Q110 % L&A1 Q409 % L&A1 FY09 % L&A1 Q1 10 Key Sector Impairments: UK Retail 5 0.8 1.1 2.1 Mortgage & Personal lending UK Corporate 155 1.9 3.9 4.8 Property & construction 34% of total Ulster Bank2 552 13.0 7.0 8.3 Property £461m, 84% of total US R&C 208 7.4 7.6 9.7 SBO/Home Equity £102m, and CRE £63m - 80% of total GBM 753 3.6 4.1 4.9 Property £472m, 62% of total Other 31 3.7 6.5 9.3 Mainly Wealth Total 1,704 4.6 4.6 5.7 Absence of large individual cases but with Ulster Bank remaining at elevated levels
1.8
1 Excludes Available for sale impairments. 2 Includes EMEA.
2.1 Non-Core provision coverage of 39%, +300bps q-o-q
Impairments appear to have stabilised, albeit at elevated levels
32
33
GBM Summary – FY07 vs FY09 & Q110
FY07 “Old” GBM Core GBM FY09 Q110 Income, £bn 9.11 6.7 11.0 2.8 Costs, £bn (5.8)2 (5.1) (4.7) (1.3) Profit, £bn 3.21 1.5 5.7 1.5 ROE, % 10.8% 10.4% 30.7% 28.4% Balance Sheet, £bn 873.8 617.3 412.2 443.7 People 24,100 20,900 16,8003 n.d
Distribution of Core Clients 57% 43% FI’s Corporates Core GBM ~5,800 “Old GBM” 26,000+ Client base
Focus on core clients
GBM strategy refocused to a capital efficient business model
1
Core + Non Core
2 Source: GBM Finance (Core only, excluding Sempra) 3 Source: Published FY09 financials (Core only, excluding Sempra)
34
GBM balance sheet, £bn
FY07 ‘Old GBM’ R C FY09 GBM Core R C Q110 GBM Core C R 874 412 360 444 381 R – Reported C – Constant Currency Reverse Repos Loans & Advances Securities Other Settlement balances
c£400-450bn
growth
£12bn (37%) of Q110 growth
Balances, total assets declined 1% Q-o-Q
Continuing focus on deleveraging and risk management
Loan Impairments by quarter (£m)
269 (31) 272 130 32
nature of counterparties
developing economic picture
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
35
36
Breakdown of Loans & Advances (Q110 Gross, £612bn)1
UK Retail 17% UK Corporate 19% Wealth 2% GBM 22% GTS 2% Ulster 6% US R&C 8% Non-Core 24%
Loan Impairments (£bn)3 A well diversified portfolio with UK Retail and Corporate representing c. 36%, GBM c. 22% and other divisions c. 18% of gross loans Non Core loans < 25% of assets, but approximately two thirds of impairments per quarter Impairments plateauing in Core and demonstrating improvements in Non Core though volatility remains likely
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.8 3.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Core impairments Non Core impairments
1 Gross loans and advances including provisions. 2 GBM loans and advances include L&A to banks 3 Figures represent loan impairments as percentage of gross loans & advances
2
Well diversified loan portfolio across geographies and customer segments
2.8% 8.2% 5.4% 4.6% 4.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
37
Core Retail L&A by geography (Q110 Gross, £168bn) Core Retail L&A by product
76 % 76 % 77 % 78 % 78 % 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7%
Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Retail / Secured Personal
UK 71% Ulster 11% US 18%
Strategic focus shifted to generating mortgages through retail branch networks with secured lending now representing over 78% of the book – share of UK mortgage market increased significantly in 2008/09 Ulster Bank represents 11% of retail loans with the balance originating in the US Unsecured personal loans and credit cards gradually declining through exit from non-bank channels and falling demand as customers reduce overall debt levels
Cards Other
1 Retail comprises UK Retail, Wealth, and retail parts of Ulster and US R&C
Core Retail exposure dominated by secured, prime residential mortgages
£164bn £159bn £164bn £165bn £168bn
38
UK Retail4
portfolio)
in value of houses over 95% LTV
61 32 27 15 11 8 5 8 13 22 27 54 11 15 19 29 35 61
Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 >50% >90% >80% >75% >95% >100% Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume1 %
Ulster Bank4
59 40 37 29 24 20 9 13 18 27 32 53 15 19 24 32 36 56
Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 >50% >90% >80% >75% >95% >100% Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume2 %
US R&C5
9 19 34 51 61 70 17 30 44 57 66 74
Dec-08 Dec-09 >50% >80% >70% >60% >90% >100% Cumulative LTV distribution as % of book volume %
advances
mortgage market since H2 09
markets of New England and Mid-Atlantic
1Excludes wealth and business offset mortgages 2 LTV basis current value by volume 3 Serviced by others 4 Core 5 Including Core and Non-Core
Mortgage lending further protected by low average LTVs
39
Core Retail1 Loan Impairments by product (£m) RBS UK mortgage arrears vs. CML2
88 106 167 77 106 195 299 247 282 233 137 130 131 134 106 82 60 32 62 72
100 200 300 400 500 600 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Mortgages4 Personal
2 Council of Mortgage Lenders 3 3 months average 4 Including Home Equity
1.0 % 1.5 % 2.0 % 2.5 % 3.0 % Q4 '03 Q4 '04 Q4 '05 Q4 '06 Q4 '07 Q4 '08 Q4 '09 CML 3+ % RBS & NW 3+ %
Cards Other
exiting non-bank channels and reduced demand as households de-lever
3 1 Retail comprises UK Retail, Wealth, and retail parts of Ulster and US R&C
Mortgage arrears trending below industry average
502 595 577 555 517
40
Core Corporate1 L&A by geography (Q110 Gross, £155bn) Core Corporate L&A by sector (£bn)2
36.6 35.2 34.7 34.2 33.8 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.7 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.8 7 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.4 10.5 10.1 10.1 9.8 10.1 4.6 4.5 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.1 6 5.7 5.8 38.1 36.6 36.8 36.1 38.2 24.2 20.5 20.5 19.5 20.5 22.8 21.2 21.9 21.1 20.3 6.1
50 100 150 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Property Housebuilding & construction Asset & invoice finance Hotels & restaurants Wholesale & retail trade, repairs Banks & FI Manufacturing Other US Corporate Ulster Corporate
UK 74% Ulster 13% US 13%
1 Corporate comprises UK Corporate and Corporate sections of Ulster and US R&C 2 US and Ulster Corporate sector breakdown not provided
164 154 156 152 155
Core Corporate1 loan book (£155bn as at Q110)
41
10 20 30 40 50 60 Total Other Residential Development Commercial Development Residential Investment Commercial Investment Q110 FY09
1 Includes Core and Non-Core portfolios 3 Investment properties are income generating, ie occupied with a tenant 2 2009 restated on a comparable basis 4 Development is any stage through construction but will include speculative deals that remain empty.
GBM 3% UK Corporate 37% Ulster 11% US R&C 5% Non-Core 44%
Global exposure has remained broadly stable (£85.2bn at Q110 vs £86.3bn at FY 09) of which 44% has been transferred to Non Core GBM interest cover ratio (ICR) 1.60x1, UK Corporate ICR 1.64x1 Exposure principally dominated by commercial investment properties, c. 60% of total exposure Low interest rates are supporting ongoing debt-servicing Credit quality remains under pressure but no major shift from year-end Global CRE portfolio by division (Q1 10, £85.2bn) Global CRE portfolio by sector (Q1 10, £85.2bn)
50 51 13 13 9 10 12 11 1 1 85 86
3 3 4 4
Credit quality remains under pressure but no major shift from year-end
42
Core UK Corporate Loan Impairments by product (£m) UK Business Banking (SME) – Debtflows1
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Property Asset & invoice finance
Impairments have risen since Q1 09 reflecting the deteriorating economic environment during the year Q2 09 impairments included a charge of £271m for latent loss provisioning Impairments charge has been biased towards the housebuilding, property and construction sectors Excluding latent loss provisioning, impairments appear to have stablised in recent quarters albeit at high levels; though the financial condition of many clients remains delicate
1 Debt flow rate is calculated by looking at the monthly default balances (also known as transfer into recoveries or debt flow) as a % of total Loans & Receivables in that month
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30% Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Debtflow as % of balances
Housebuilding & Construction Hotels & Restaurants Other 100 450 187 190 186
Core Corporate impairments are stabilising albeit at elevated levels
Total Portfolio £18.5bn; Core £16.3bn, Non-Core £2.2bn
44
FY07 1,322
1 Tier 1 leverage ratio is based on total tangible assets (after netting derivatives) divided by Tier 1 capital 2 Tangible equity leverage ratio is based on total tangible equity divided by total tangible assets (after netting derivatives) 3 Excluding Sempra
£bn 1,084 FY09 Funded balance sheet road map FY07 – Q110 1,227 FY08
Key Ratios FY 2009 Q1 2010 Leverage ratio1 17.0x 17.6x Tangible common equity ratio2 5.2% 5.1% Tangible equity per share 51.3p 51.5p Core Tier 1 Ratio 11.0% 10.6% 1,500 FX vs FY09 Liquidity portfolio Q110 1,121
Overall deleveraging progress in line with plan
45
1 Net of provisions 2 Net loans & advances to customers less customer deposits (excluding repos) 1 Net of provisions 2 Net loans & advances to customers less customer deposits (excluding repos)
Wholesale funding maturity
£bn
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 FY08 HY09 FY09 Q110 > 5 years 1 - 5 years < 1 year
Reduction of £42bn in overall wholesale funding requirements between FY08 and Q110 Absolute wholesale funding greater than 1 year remains stable despite total wholesale funding
requirement declining. Mix of wholesale funding greater than 1 year increases to 53%, +3% from FY09
Strong term issuance programme with over £8bn of public and private unguaranteed issuance in Q110 €15bn covered bond programme registered with the FSA on 01 April 2010
Stable >1yr absolute funding Reduction in funding requirement seen in short term bucket 55% 53% 50% 47%
Key Funding Metrics Key Funding Metrics
H109 FY09 Q110 Loan:deposit ratio (Group)1 143% 135% 131% Core 110% 104% 102% Loan:deposit gap (Group)2 £180bn £142bn £131bn Core £41bn £16bn £10bn Liquidity reserves £121bn £171bn £165bn Of which central govt bond portfolio: £7bn £20bn £25bn Net Stable Funding Ratio3 83% 90% 90% Wholesale funding > 1 year4 47% 50% 53%
3 Net Stable Funding Ratio measures the level of net stable funding divided by long-term assets 4 Excluding bank deposits
Reducing wholesale funding requirements
46
50 100 150 200 250 300
TPAs 2008 1H09 2012e 2011e FY09 2010e 2013e
Non-Core third party assets (TPAs excl MTMs) run-
trend with the Group Loan:Deposit gap
1
Run-off at constant year-end 2008 FX rates
2 Net customer loans less customer deposits excluding repos 3 Maturing term funding includes government guaranteed MTNs, unguaranteed MTNs and subordinated debt. Figures exclude RBS NV (£15bn total)
Loan to deposit gap2
10 20 30 40 50
Run-off of Non-Core TPAs p.a.
Refinancing requirement outweighed by run-off in Non-Core third party assets2
Reduction in the loan to deposit gap expected to continue trending closely with the run-off of Non-Core TPAs Future wholesale funding requirement is significantly outweighed by the level of run-off from Non-Core TPAs
2012e 2011e 2010e 2013e Group maturing term funding p.a.3 £bn £bn
Refinancing requirement outweighed by run-off in Non-Core
48
UK Banks (FY09)
RBS Core Barclays HSBC Lloyds Banking Group Standard Chartered
European Banks (FY09)
Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Santander UBS
Loan to Deposit Ratio
104% 130% 77% 80% 169% 83% 100% 135% 75%
Funding Gap
£(16)bn £(109)bn £146bn £29bn £(289)bn £29bn £8bn £(172)bn £60bn
Impairment charge to Gross Loans
1.1% 1.7% 2.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Provisions coverage of NPLs
67% 42% 57% 44% 71% 61% 37% 73% 39%
Liquidity Reserve
£127bn £58bn £151bn n/d n/d £49bn £89bn n/d 10.0% 9.4% 8.1% 8.9% 11.2% 8.7% 8.6% 11.9%
Core Tier 1 ratio
Green – Better than RBS Blue – In-line with RBS Red – Worse than RBS RBS Group 135% £(142)bn 2.3% 43% £171bn 11.0% Further to go Middle of the pack Amongst the best
capitalised banks compared to the UK and European peer group
impairments against UK peers
(63%) generated by the Non- Core division which is meeting its reduction targets
improving, reducing from 151% at FY08 to 131% at Q1 2010
102%
Among the best capitalised banks in the peer group
US Banks (FY09)
Bank of America ML Citi JP Morgan Wells Fargo 87% 66% 64% 92% £56bn £151bn £136bn £25bn 5.4% 6.6% 4.5% 2.8% 108% 107% 160% 91% £75bn n/a n/a n/a 7.8% 10.9% 8.8% 6.5% RBS Rank (Core/Group) RBS Rank (Core/Group) RBS Rank (Core/Group) 3rd/4th 3rd/4th 2nd/3rd 2nd/4th 1st 1st 4th/~4th 4th/4th 5th/5th 2nd/4th 1st 3rd 5th/5th 5th/5th 1st/1st 5th/5th n/m 1st RBS Overall Rank 10th/~11th 10th/11th 6th/7th 7th/10th 1st 3rd
50
Leading positions in all our customer businesses Strong, predictable and resilient business performance Top tier market franchises Complementary portfolio with clear cohesion logic and synergies Balanced by geography, growth, risk profile and business cycle Balanced portfolio Commitment to RoE >15% on an expanded equity base Attractive and sustainable income characteristics Solid profitability and attractive return potential Clean balance sheet with a CT1 target >8% Criteria for standalone AA category rating met Low volatility underpinned by strong balance sheet Proven management track record, universal disciplines in place Roadmap to orderly UK Government stake sell down Standalone strength and solid foundations Transparent and responsive communication with few negative surprises Clearly articulated strategy with evidence of it working Investor friendly
Delivering the plan should create an attractive investment case
The New RBS in 2013
52
53
Subdued loan growth as economies recover slowly
and customers delever
RBS deposit growth marginally ahead of nominal
GDP growth; c4-5% p.a.
Interest rates move and “normalise” from 2011
1 Consensus economics (April 2010 survey) 2 Claimants count
Outlook is better than expected 6-12 months ago US and UK current account and savings deficits are
starting to improve
UK housing market has performed better than
expected
Confidence in markets has improved but will remain
sensitive to news flow and market developments
Low interest rates have improved liquidity which could
continue
Economic growth falters Economic imbalances Sovereign credit risks Wholesale funding, liquidity risks Harsh capital and liquidity regimes hinder growth Interest rates, inflation rise rapidly
Current position Possible Risks Assumptions Consensus Economic Data1
UK (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP1
1.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 Unemployment2 5.2 5.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. Inflation (CPI)1 2.2 2.7 1.7 2.1 2.5 US (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP1
3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 Unemployment 2 9.6 9.1 n.a. n.a. n.a.
World economic recovery continues
54
interest rates normalise
exceed cost of capital (CoE 10-15%)
Current position and outlook
Possible risks
Strong but rational competition going forward
55
Capital – RWA impacts 2010 2011 2012 2013 BASEL II CHANGES e.g.: Stressed VaR Correlation Trading Book CHANGES TO CAPITAL DEDUCTIONS e.g.: Deferred Tax Assets Material holdings Pension deficit Observations: Proposals published, but subject to consultation and impact assessment Implementation likely phased so as not to destabilise Banking System 2014 To be phased in from 2012 Liquidity LIQUIDITY REQUIREMENTS: Increased liquidity reserves Costs of holding Risks: More penal at implementation Shortened timeline for introduction Failure to gain global agreement, UK or EU ‘goes it alone’
Counterparty & OTC Derivative reforms expected to impact RWAs from 2012
Path of regulatory change will be phased and sensible
56
UK and other Governments have been supportive ̶ Liquidity and funding support can now wind down ̶ Crucial task for RBS to provide opportunity for UK Government to sell down stake profitably UK Government, through UKFI, has remained a constructive shareholder and operated in line with shareholder best practice Debates around: ̶ Industry structure ̶ Bank specific taxes and levies ̶ Basel III capital and liquidity proposals Impact of consumer legislation – e.g. overdraft fees Lending commitments 2010: ̶ Residential lending – make available £8bn net ̶ Business lending – make available £50bn gross new facilities Competition – EU mandated sales
Risks RBS Commitments Support
Government policy
57
58
Peers ratings sorted in descending order by Moody’s rating Ratings correct as at 20th May 2010
Peer’s Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Aa1 AA- AA- Credit Suisse AG Aa1 A+ AA- BNP Paribas Aa2 AA AA HSBC Bank plc Aa2 AA AA Santander Aa2 AA AA BBVA Aa2 AA AA- Société Génerale Aa2 A+ A+ Barclays Bank Aa3 AA- AA- RBS Aa3 A+ AA- Bank of Scotland Plc Aa3 A+ AA- Lloyds TSB Bank Aa3 A+ AA- Nationwide Aa3 A+ AA- Deutsche Bank Aa3 A+ AA- Bank of America NA Aa3 A+ A+ ING Bank NV Aa3 A+ A+ UBS Aa3 A+ A+ Commerzbank AG Aa3 A A+ Goldman Sachs Aa3 A A+ Citibank NA A1 A+ A+ Morgan Stanley Bank NA A1 A+ A+ UniCredit Bank AG A1 A A+ Standard Chartered Bank A2 A+ A+ RBS Group Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch RBS (Bank Level) Aa3 A+ AA- RBS (Group Level) A1 A AA- NatWest (Bank) Aa3 A+ AA- RBS Citizens A2 A- A+ Ulster Bank Ltd A2 A A+ Ulster Bank Ireland Ltd A2 A A+ RBS NV A2 A+ AA-
59
60
RBS NV
S&P: A+/A-1/Stable Moody’s: A2/P-1/Stable Fitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
RBS plc
S&P: A+/A-1/Stable Moody’s: Aa3/P-1/Stable Fitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
RBS Group plc
S&P: A/A-1/Stable Moody’s: A1/P-1/Stable Fitch: AA-/F1+/Stable
Ulster
S&P: A/A-1/Stable Moody’s: A2/P-1/Negative Fitch: A+/F1+/Stable
CP/CD MTN Securitisation Covered Bond
Diversity of wholesale funding programmes, across maturities and markets to support Group needs
€10bn ECP $10bn USCP €20bn ECP €20bn French CD $12.5bn USCP A$20bn Australian ECP &
ECD
€25bn ECP €20bn French CD €12bn ECP €10bn French CD £90bn EMTN $35bn USMTN WKSI SEC Shelf No Limit £90bn EMTN $35bn USMTN WKSI SEC Shelf No Limit Securitisation programme €15bn CB programme
registered with FSA on 01 April 2010
£90bn EMTN, $35bn USMTN & WKSI SEC Shelf can be issued out of either RBSG or RBS plc
61
62
Wholesale residual maturity excl. bank deposits (£271bn) Total funding (£796bn)
Capital securities, £31.9bn, 4% Securitisations, £18.6bn, 2% MTNs, £126.6bn, 16% CDs, £57.4bn, 7% CP, £36.6bn, 5% Bank deposits, £100.2bn, 13% Customer deposits, £425.1bn, 53%
year versus 45% at FY08, driven in the main by a reduction in the wholesale funding requirement1 from £313bn to £271bn
and Other (c. 15%)2
1
Excluding bank deposits
2
Approximate figures
Less than 1 year, 127.9bn, 47% 1-5 years, 79.9bn, 30% More than 5 years, 62.3bn, 23%
63 20 25 28 20 10 14 52 42 42 46 20 17 Central Group Treasury Portfolio Treasury Bills Other government securities Cash and central bank balances Unencumbered collateral Other liquid assets
Build-up of liquidity reserves
continue to grow in line with new regulatory liquidity reforms
reserves is well controlled
constitute UK, US and G10 European government bond issues
£165bn £171bn £90bn Q110 Q409 FY08 Q209 Q309 £140bn £121bn
Continued progress in increasing the strength of liquidity reserves
64
65
UK Retail UK Corporate Ulster Bank US R&C GBM Total Core Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110
Core impairments by division Q109 – Q1103, £bn
1.3
1 Impairments as a % of L&A excludes Available for Sale 2 Includes Wealth, GTS, RBS Insurance and Central Items.
Q110 £m Q110 % L&A1 Q409 % L&A1 FY09 % L&A1 Q110 Key Sector Impairments: UK Retail 387 1.5 1.8 1.6 A reduction in unsecured charges; mortgage growth reflects increased provisions UK Corporate 186 0.7 0.7 0.8 Broadly spread, but property related sectors most prominent Ulster Bank 218 2.3 3.5 1.6 Lower, primarily as a result of a Q409 non recurring latent provision US R&C 143 1.0 1.3 1.4 Broadly stable performance; good improvement in Corporate & Commercial GBM 32 0.1 0.6 0.6 Minimal charge reflecting absence of large single name provisions Other2 5 n.m. 0.2 0.3 Small charge in Wealth Total Core 971 0.9 1.2 1.1 25% decline sequentially driven by improving trends in UK & US Retail
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0
Core provision coverage of 59%, +200bps q-o-q
66
67
Market risk framework Integrated stress testing and scenarios
Activity
Operating Model Regulatory risk and operational risk framework & controls Strategy & Policy Alignment of risk & business strategy One risk community Rationalise group policy framework Improved governance Organisation, people & culture Capital / risk adjusted performance Risk Appetite & Framework Credit approval framework Concentration risk framework & limits Country risk framework Risk appetite and framework Operating Model Strategy and Policy Risk architecture Embedding Development
2009 2010 2011 2012
Risk Architecture Regulatory risk and operational risk framework & controls Risk systems Risk data architecture Analytics and modelling Risk information and reporting
68
Strategic Risk Profile Maintain Capital Adequacy Deliver Stable Earnings Growth Stable / Efficient Access to Funding Maintain Market Confidence Key Risk Appetite Measures
RWA Mgmt Capital Allocation Stressed ratios Leverage Ratios Earnings Volatility Value at Risk Credit Volatility Cost of Funding Leverage Ratios Stressed measures Target Agency Rating of AA Reputation Risk Credit Risk Single Name Concentration
Concentration
Product
Value at Risk
Capital
Funding & Liquidity
Risk Policy Standards
Risk Policy Standards
Policy Standards
C B
Board Risk Committee Risk Management
Day to day risk management Detailed Risk Appetite Strategy and high level Risk Appetite Key Risk Appetite Measures
B
Risk Limits
C
Group Strategy Strategic Risk Profile
A
Board
ERF
69
1 Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), instalment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types. Asset Quality (AQ) bands allow the internal reporting and oversight of risk assets by differentiating on the basis of the key drivers of default for a customer
2 A further £31bn of assets are covered by the standardised approach for which a PD equivalent to those assigned to assets covered by the internal ratings based approach is not available.
Normal monitoring Non-performing book Heightened monitoring
Portfolio performance £bn Normal monitoring
Personal
Heightened monitoring
Personal Defaulted assets Total 491 362 50 12 38 16 557
493 107 386 72 27 45 13 578
HY 2009 FY 2009 129 Exposure by division Portfolio by division, % 10 20 30 40 Other GTS Wealth Ulster Bank US R&C UK Retail UK Corporate GBM
£110bn £103bn £52bn £42bn £16bn £7bn £3bn
Exposure1,2 risk rating Portfolio by grade, % 5 10 15 20 25 AQ10 AQ9 AQ8 AQ7 AQ6 AQ5 AQ4 AQ3 AQ2 AQ1 Average AQ = 4.4
£124bn £13bn £27bn £85bn £108bn £78bn £43bn £21bn £11bn £16bn £224bn
70
Portfolio performance £bn Normal monitoring
personal
Heightened monitoring
Personal Defaulted assets Total Exposure by division Portfolio by division, % 25 50 75 100 Non-Core
Normal monitoring Non-performing book Heightened monitoring
98 10 88 41 8 33 21 160 HY 2009 98 13 85 30 6 24 23 151 FY 2009
£151bn
Exposure1 risk rating Portfolio by grade, % 10 20 AQ2 AQ1 AQ10 AQ9 AQ8 AQ7 AQ6 AQ5 AQ4 AQ3 Average AQ = 5.6
£2bn £17bn £6bn £21bn £27bn £19bn £6bn £14bn £5bn £23bn
1 Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), instalment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types. Asset Quality (AQ) bands allow the internal reporting and oversight of risk assets by differentiating on the basis of the key drivers of default for a customer
2 A further £11bn of assets are covered by the standardised approach for which a PD equivalent to those assigned to assets covered by the internal ratings based approach is not available.
71
Exposure by sector Portfolio by sector, % 5 10 15 20 25 30 Agriculture and Fisheries Business Services Power, Water & Waste Tourism and Leisure Natural Resources and Nuclear Building Public Sectors & Quasi-Government TMT Wholesale and retail trade Transport and Storage Manufacturing Property Banks, other FIs Personal
1 Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types
Normal monitoring Heightened monitoring Non-performing book
Exposure by region Portfolio by region, % 10 20 30 40 50 Middle East & Africa CEE & Central Asia Latin America Asia & Pacific North America Western Europe (Excluding UK) United Kingdom
£272bn £134bn £89bn £29bn £14bn £10bn £9bn £165bn £134bn £57bn £31bn £31bn £25bn £17bn £22bn £19bn £16bn £13bn £12bn £12bn £3bn
72
Exposure by sector Exposure by region 10 20 30 40 Middle East & Africa CEE & Central Asia Latin America Asia & Pacific North America Western Europe (Excluding UK) United Kingdom 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Agriculture and Fisheries Business Services Public Sectors & Quasi-Government Tourism and Leisure Natural Resources and Nuclear Wholesale and retail trade Power, Water & Waste Building Manufacturing TMT Transport and Storage Banks, other FIs Personal Property
1 Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments across all customer types
Normal monitoring Heightened monitoring Non-performing book
Portfolio by region, % Portfolio by sector, %
£50bn £25bn £48bn £10bn £9bn £6bn £3bn £46bn £21bn £19bn £15bn £6bn £5bn £5bn £4bn £3bn £2bn £0bn £7bn £8bn £10bn
73
74
+ –
Profit days (#) Loss days (#) Total Profit days (%) Loss days (%) H2 08 94 38 132 71% 29% H1 09 123 2 125 98% 2% H2 09 115 14 129 89% 11%
Note: Chart data shows GBM’s daily Markets revenues (excluding Sempra)
1 July 08 31 Dec 09 1 Jan 09 1 July 09
■
Radical upgrading of front office risk management frameworks
■
Moved VaR to 99 percentile tail risk
■
Created a market leading Counterparty Exposure Management business
■
GBM’s daily profitability improved considerably in 2009
75
46 94 12 31 73 74 82
Q409
188 224 205 155 156 128 225 166 161 156 164 137 207 89 81 75 75 73 35 20 29 52 64 74
Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409
1
Short Term Markets and Financing (“STMF”) includes repo financing and Money Markets.
2 Cash collateral posted in relation to derivative liabilities across GBM. 3 Deals pending settlement 4 Lending portfolio also includes a proportion of assets that could be liquidated swiftly, prices depend on market conditions.
Loan Trading Assets Reverse Repo Cash & T- bills
GBM Core Assets
Lending portfolio4 Debt Securities Derivative collateral (booked in CEM)2 Equity shares Other (mainly DPS3) Reverse Repo Cash & T-bills 31% 22% 26%
3% Flow Credit 9% Mortgage Trading 9% Other Emerging Markets STMF Flow Rates Trading
12% 69% 11%
STMF Flow Rates Trading Equities 8% Other
Proportion of liquidity in GBM Core Assets (Q409) Debt Securities & Reverse Repo held by businesses
476 438 459 655 499
Note: Reverse repo in Flow Rates Trading is managed by STMF
412
2
Significant reduction in debt securities and reverse repo in H208 80% of GBM Core Assets in Q409 are liquid assets
STMF1 + Flow Rates Trading = 80% These are high grade, very short term assets STMF + Flow Rates Trading = 53% These are high grade debt securities
Also highly liquid
76
11 50 27 144 254
Other3
23
Equities L&A T bills Debt securities & reverse repos Non- derivative trading assets 90.1 291.3 25.3 10.8 54.8 16.0 94.2 FY08 £bn % change Reverse repos1 GBM Core2 Other Equities Loans & advances T Bills Debt securities Asset
£bn
(23%) (13%) (10%) (1%) (8%) 66% (21%) FY09 £bn 69.5 253.9 22.7 10.7 50.3 26.5 74.2
1 Trading book reverse repos 2
Excludes Non-Core portfolio of £32.5bn
3 Mainly comprises of DPS (deals pending settlement)
77
39 73 34
Only 4% of portfolio (£2.9bn) in Non-Core Total reverse repos Customers Banks % of total MTM < 6 months < 1 year Total 100 0.0 4.4 3.9 91.7 FY09 12.1 4.4 100 0.8 82.6 FY08 > 1 year < 3 months Maturity profile 88.8 32 57 FY08 £bn (18%) Total 73.3 39 34 FY09 £bn 22% Reverse repos – Customers (40%) Reverse repos – Banks % change Exposure by counterparty Total Other 100.0 3.4 85.9 10.7 FY09 % Corporates Government 100.0 3.5 89.3 7.2 FY08 % Collateral quality distribution
£bn
1 Including assets transferred to non-core. Banking and trading book repos. Note:Collateral quality distribution and tenor distribution are calculated based on gross reverse repos
78
2 2 4 11 24 70
Unrated BB+ and below BBB- and below A AA AAA
£bn
FY09 £bn Banks & Building Society Debt Securities total Mortgage & asset-backed securities Central & Local Government Treasury & other bills Asset 7.2 113 30.6 41.9 28.3 – Majority of non-related linked to exposures in ABS, Fund derivatives and Corporates – Excess liquidity invested in Treasury and Other Bills Corporate (inc Financials) 5
1 Core debt securities – banking book & trading book, excludes £13.5bn of unanalysed securities
GBM debt securities total consists of £32.5bn T Bills included in Cash & T-Bills and £94bn Debt Securities on summary slide 17
79
1 Exposures are defined as credit risk assets consisting of loans and advances (including overdraft facilities), installment credit, finance lease receivables and other traded instruments
across all customer types.
46% 4% 8% 15% 14% 4% 2% 1% 1% 5% 13% 2% 6% 15% 24% 12% 1% 4% 14% 9%
AQ1 AQ2 AQ3 AQ4 AQ5 AQ6 AQ7 AQ8 AQ9 AQ10
Core Non Core
Average rating AQ3.0 Average rating AQ5.4
GBM – Credit grade exposures1
38% 14% 9% 6% 3% 6% 4% 4% 12% 4%
GBM – Sector exposures1
4% 16% 11% 10% 26% 9% 5% 2% 11% 6%
Banks and Building Societies Financial Intermediaries Manufacturing Transport and Storage Property TMT Power, Water & Waste Natural Resources and Nuclear Public Sectors Other
Non Core £87.7bn Core £224.4bn
Property: 3% Property: 26%