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www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate/SMEs
- Financial services
- Personal lending / access to credit
- Social investment
Responsible Finance after Brexit: Recent developments and upcoming - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Responsible Finance after Brexit: Recent developments and upcoming - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Responsible Finance after Brexit: Recent developments and upcoming challenges Marta Costas, Senior Consultant, Political Monitoring Financial Services July 2016 www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making Business
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SLIDE 3
www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate/SMEs
- Access to capital /FDI
- Access to finance / R&D tax breaks
- Access to talent / migration
- Exports (goods but primarily services)
- Financial services
- Personal lending / access to credit
- Social investment
SLIDE 4
www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate/SMEs
- Financial services
- Euro trading (LSE/DB merger)
- Passporting rights (HSBC/Santander warnings)
- Access to talent / cost of visas
- Political Sentiment (distributed economy)
- Personal lending / access to credit
- Social investment
SLIDE 5
www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate/SMEs
- Financial services
- Personal lending / access to credit
- Tightening of credit (anecdotal evidence)
- Consumer confidence (H1 data is +ve but IMF/OECD warnings Q3)
- Little room for manoeuvre – real wages down since recession
- Social investment
SLIDE 6
www.dodsinformation.com Challenges of long term policy making
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate/SMEs
- Financial services
- Personal lending / access to credit
- Social investment
- Lose access to ESF and ERDF (anecdotal evidence of discrimination)
- Talent and service exports for social enterprises
- Could fall in the list of priorities
- Large contingent of vulnerable startup/scaleup biz
SLIDE 7
www.dodsinformation.com Strategic objectives / opportunities
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate / SME
- Better deal for biz, with exceptions for SMEs? (Leadsom’s view)
- Corporation tax rates (Osborne’s proposal)
- Norway Model (Liam Fox/May disagreement on single market)
- London visa? (Rohan Silva)
- Access to finance inquiry (BIS select Cttee)
- Financial services
- Personal Lending
- Social investment
, UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring
SLIDE 8
www.dodsinformation.com Strategic objectives / opportunities
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate / SME
- Financial services
- Balanced economy – role for challenger banks?
- MPC stimuli in August – what effect on real economy?
- Europe likely to adopt a tough line – FR, EI, DE to benefit
- Personal Lending
- Social investment
, UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring
SLIDE 9
www.dodsinformation.com Strategic objectives / opportunities
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate / SME
- Financial services
- Personal Lending
- Demand-driven: Biz voice to avoid self-fulfilling prophecy
- Wait for October for data on consumer confidence post-Brexit
- Negative int. rates a possibility – BoE is shifting its position
- Social investment
, UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring
SLIDE 10
www.dodsinformation.com Strategic objectives / opportunities
www.dodsinformation.com
- Business climate / SME
- Financial services
- Personal Lending
- Social investment
- Could be a winner in the process – benefit from fall of vanity projects
- Must act with one voice – Javid and Osborne roundtables w/biz
- Widespread misunderstanding in Parliament – or in business
- P2P lending a key weakness – uncertainty even pre-Brexit
, UK Client Manager, Dods Monitoring
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www.dodsinformation.com Key actors
www.dodsinformation.com
- T. May – keeps chair seat on 3 key cabinet committees
- Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer
- Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
- No Small Biz Minister yet
- The three Brexiteers:
- Liam Fox, Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the
Board of Trade
- David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union
- Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Office
- In EU: Michael Barnier, Chief Negotiator EU
SLIDE 12
www.dodsinformation.com Devolution
- Northern Ireland
- Questions around border and customs with single market
- Opportunities to lower corporation tax
- Wales
- ERDF most at risk
- Welsh Bill underway – devolve collection of VAT and income tax
- Scotland
- Second referendum position weaker than expected
- Spanish objection to EU membership access
- London
- Khan pushes for Scottish-style devolution
- Greater planning and tax collection powers
- Access to talent and single market
SLIDE 13
www.dodsinformation.com Key dates
- 4 August - Monetary Policy Committee Meeting interest rate decision
- August - market study on competition in investment and corporate banking
(Expected: Summer)
- 8 September – Chancellor appears before Lords Economic Affairs Cttee
- 16 September - European leaders - extraordinary meeting; future of post-
Brexit EU discussed
- Autumn – resolution of access to finance inquiry
- Regular meetings of BoE, ECB, ECOFIN, Eurogroup
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www.dodsinformation.com How to engage
- Political Monitoring
- People Data
- Politics Home and Central Lobby
- Polling and Research
- Training
- Risk Analysis
- NEW – Brexit Reports
- Publications
- Events
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