Retail Market and Trends Ottawa Real Estate Forum October 11, 2012 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

An Overview of Ottawa’s

Retail Market and Trends

Ottawa Real Estate Forum October 11, 2012

Barry Nabatian, A.A.S., B.Sc., M.Sc. Director, Market Research Division

T: 613.224.8484 x117 E: barry@shore-tanner.com

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH 2006 - 2012 Estimated Population in 2012:

• Capital Region: 1,378,000
• City of Ottawa: 946,000

Capital Region

Annual Growth Since 2006:

• Capital Region: +1.79%
• City of Ottawa: +1.75%
• Generally, standard growth rate is 1.0%

City of Ottawa 946,000 1,378,000 +19,000 +14,200

ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH 2006 - 2012 Population Growth (in Ottawa) From In-Migration and International Immigration:

Capital Region

• Typically: 30-70% per year
• Since 2006: About 37% per year

City of Ottawa

SELECTED AGE GROUPS, 2011 20-34 Years Old: 20.9% 35-54 Years Old: 30.2% 65 & Older: 13.2% Median Age: 39.2 Years Estimated Average Annual Population Growth in Ottawa: 2012-2017

• 10,000 to 14,000 per year

HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN OTTAWA Households with over $100,000 income in:

• 2006: 30.7%
• 2012: 39.0%

39.0% 40 38

The overall average household income:

• 2006: $85,136 per household
• 2012: $98,000 per household

30.7% 2006 2012 36 34 32 30 28 26 24

INCOMES IN OTTAWA High Paying Jobs Account for 55%

• f all Jobs in Ottawa:
• High Technology
• Health, education & government
• Finance & insurance
• Lobbyists

Total Annual Income in Ottawa: =$50.3 Billion

RETAIL MARKET IN OTTAWA Existing Inventory: 32.0 Million Sq.Ft. Overall Vacancy Rate: Overall Vacancy Rate: 3.0% Under Construction: 0.8 Million Sq.Ft. Proposed Construction: 1.5 Million Sq.Ft.

RETAIL MARKET IN OTTAWA Distribution of Space:

• Regional & Power Centres
• Community Centres
• Neighbourhood Malls
• Neighbourhood Malls
• Downtown & Strip Malls

Box Store Component of Total = 25%

25%

31% 33% 30%

MORE ABOUT OTTAWA’S RETAIL MARKET Demand for more space:

• 300,000 to 400,000 sq.ft. for every

10,000 population growth Other reasons for more development:

• Too much in downtown, not enough in

the suburbs

• Too many poor, outmoded, unpopular

stores

• Popularity/seduction of new concepts,

names, promotions

MORE ABOUT OTTAWA’S RETAIL MARKET High spending power of residents:

• Ottawa’s retail market is lucrative
• Total spending of Tourists: $0.30 B
• Total spending of Residents: $15.0 B

$15.0 B Total Spending

• Total spending of Residents: $15.0 B

Average spending per resident:

• $12,000 at retail stores
• $3,900 at service stores
• $475 per sq.ft. of annual average sales

$0.3 B Average per Resident

Service $3,900 Retail $12,000

CURRENT & FUTURE TRENDS Declining Sales/Market Shares:

• Mid-price, mid-quality stores
• Tired department stores
• Tired department stores
• Small, independent stores
• Oversupplied stores
• Poorly located stores

CURRENT & FUTURE TRENDS Marginally Growing or Declining Businesses:

• Fashion stores
• Accessory stores
• Restaurants & bars
• Sports & recreation
• Discretionary businesses

GROWING BUSINESSES & TRENDS Existing & Intensifying Trends:

• De-malling of poor-performing

enclosed malls

• Mergers/buyouts
• E-shopping
• More aggressive advertising
• Charity associated promotions

GROWING BUSINESSES & TRENDS New Stores:

• Deep discount stores
• High-end stores
• High-end stores
• Beauty, health & wellness products
• More American & European stores
• Smaller Walmart stores (40,000 sq.ft.)

GROWING BUSINESSES & TRENDS Forward Looking:

• Energy saving products/services
• Organic, green products
• Organic, green products
• Farmer’s markets
• Cultural, leisure, travel businesses
• More automation, fewer employees

per 1,000 sq.ft. at large stores

• More business improvement areas

Consumers have many choices in today’s retail environment. Their loyalty must be earned, rather than taken for granted!