ROYAL NICKEL CORPORATION Developing the Next Great Canadian Base Metal Mine
May 13, 2014
TSX: RNX
ROYAL NICKEL CORPORATION Developing the Next Great Canadian Base - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ROYAL NICKEL CORPORATION Developing the Next Great Canadian Base Metal Mine May 13, 2014 TSX: RNX Disclaimer Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information"
TSX: RNX
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Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information" including without limitation statements relating to mineral reserve estimates, mineral resource estimates, realization of mineral reserve and resource estimates, capital and operating cost estimates, project and life of mine estimates, construction of the mine and related infrastructure, the timing and amount of future production, costs of production, success of mining operations, ability to obtain permitting by the time targeted, size and ranking of project upon achieving production, economic return estimates and potential upside and alternatives. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of RNC to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. The feasibility study results are estimates only and are based on a number of assumptions, any of which, if incorrect, could materially change the projected outcome. Even with the completion of the feasibility study, there are no assurances that Dumont will be placed into production. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: the actual results of development activities; project delays; inability to raise the funds necessary to complete development; general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; future prices of metals; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; actual nickel recovery; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, terrorism, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals, necessary permitting or in the completion of development or construction activities. The MOU with Tsingshan is non-binding and there is therefore no assurance that the strategic alliance with Tsingshan will result in any transaction or venture with Tsingshan. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to RNC's filings with Canadian securities regulators available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although RNC has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and RNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or
NI 43-101 Compliance The technical information pertaining to the Dumont project feasibility study in this presentation is based on RNC’s technical report dated July 25, 2013 that describes the results of the Dumont project feasibility study and was prepared in accordance with Canadian regulatory requirements by, or under the supervision of, Paul Staples, P. Eng. of Ausenco Limited, Sébastien Bernier, P.Geo. of SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc. and David A. Warren, Eng. of Snowden Mining Industry Consultants, all of whom are independent Qualified Persons as set
The Mineral Resource estimate set out in this presentation was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by Sébastien Bernier, P. Geo (OGQ#1034, APGO#1847), Principal Consultant – Resource Geology at SRK. The Mineral Reserve estimate set out in this presentation was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by David A. Warren (OIQ 121481), Principal Consultant – Mining at Snowden. All other technical information in this presentation has been prepared by or under the supervision of Alger St-Jean, P. Geo., Vice President, Exploration of RNC and Johnna Muinonen
available under RNC’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
All currency references in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated.
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CEASING OIL PRODUCTION (29% of supply). RNC believes the ban unlikely to be overturned.
also severely impact nickel producers in Ukraine, Australia, and Japan
capacity will be built in Indonesia in the near future
exports). Please note that the Philippines has also considered export restrictions as well.
to replace them resulting in long-term structural supply shortfall
cycle began commissioning. A number of these projects continue to struggle
to force demand in line with available supply
shortages as early as mid-2015 despite record LME inventories of 260kt and ore stockpiles in China.
supply scenario and most likely no more than 1% growth in a more conservative scenario
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Source: Metalprices.com
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Nickel Tin Zinc Aluminum Lead Copper
(as of May 13)
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5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
As of
Indonesian nickel ore exports are ZERO
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was presented with potential exemptions for companies building smelters, all nine factions in the committee voted UNANIMOUSLY against any exemptions
exemptions
annual nickel ore exports particularly compared to the billions of dollars of potential investment which would be required to transform even a fraction of the ore exports into finished product
which would directly benefit from higher nickel prices
rationale for the ban in the first place
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Some commentators are also suggesting that substantial capacity could be added quickly in
account.
plant and all of the related support infrastructure. PT Antam – the state nickel producer has a project with an estimated capital cost of $1.6 billion for 40ktpa of nickel output
(Indonesia ranks 114th on Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index between Egypt and Albania) and proposed regulations which would limit foreign
coal shipping costs which can be potentially more than offset by differences in labour costs and productivity and the need to source many inputs from outside
projects outside China
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Source: Ferroalloynet.com Limited
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 US$/wmt FOB
Nickel Ore Prices (2014 YTD 13-May)
Laterite 1.8% Ni Ore (12-18% Fe) Until Jan 12: Indonesia Post Jan 12: Philippines Laterite 1.5% Ni Ore (Philippines 25-30% Fe)
25.4 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.3 26.1 24.7 23.8 23.4 22.5 21.6 20.6 20.2 20.0 19.9 19.3 19.3 19.2
15 20 25
Chinese Nickel Ore Stocks Total (Mt)
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<5% 15% 18% 29% 54% 57% 67% 85%
Platinum Palladium Nickel Copper Iron Ore (62% Fe-eq) Lead Aluminium (Bauxite) Tin Zinc
Source: USGS, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., Macquarie Research, RNC Analysis
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Source: Glencore: “The Realities of the Nickel Market”, November 2013
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“project cupboard” was very full with many projects known for decades
Project Cupboard 2001 (20+kt) TOTAL: 500+ kt Project Cupboard 2014 (20+kt) TOTAL: 200+kt
Barro Alto Tsingshan (Indonesia) Koniambo Weda Bay Onca Puma Dumont Tagaung Taung Enterprise Ambatovy Kabanga Goro Nova-Bollinger Ramu Ravensthorpe Weda Bay Talvivaara* Kabanga Voisey’s Bay Sulphide Laterite (HPAL) Laterite (ferronickel) Sulphide Laterite (leach)
*bioheapleaching process
Laterite (ferronickel)
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1,000+ 248 242
Projected Nickel Demand Growth Nickel Supply In Construction 2011-15
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Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis
Project Annual Capacity 2012 2013 RNC Forecast 2015 2020 VNC (Goro) 60 4 16 Ambatovy 60 25 Koniambo 60 1 Onca Puma 55 6 2 Talvivaara 50 13 9 Barro Alto 40 22 25 Ravensthorpe 39 33 29 Ramu 33 5 11 Taganito 30 7 Santa Rita 26 19 16 Eagle 17 Niquelandia 10 Kevitsa 10 4 9 Total 490 106 150 310 360
Nickel Supply “Tidal Wave” – High Nickel Price Scenario Ramping Up or In Construction 2010-2015 (kt)
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Project Annual Capacity RNC Forecast 2015 2020 Weda Bay 35 Kabanga 20 Enterprise 40 Nova-Bollinger 28 Dumont (1st Phase) 331 Tsingshan (Phase I&II) 60 Total 216 80 200
Source: Company reports, RNC Analysis
Nickel Supply Growth: New Projects (kt) – High Nickel Price Scenario
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292 288 319 346 410 418 1,542 2,621
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800
2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Existing Supply NPI Underlying Demand
New NPI / Price Driven Demand Destruction
Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd, , RNC Analysis
Demand (constrained by available supply)
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Note: Price and exchange rate assumptions contained in “Key Assumptions” table found on slide 42 of this presentation
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Source: Company reports and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. (December 2011); RNC 105ktpd (LOM) vs 2012 production for other projects
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Source: Technical Report on the Dumont Ni Project, Launay and Trecesson Townships, Quebec, Canada, July 25, 2013, available at www.royalnickel.com and on www.sedar.com.
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Source: RNC technical report dated July 25, 2013, Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
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Source: RNC technical report dated July 25, 2013, publicly available disclosure, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. (figures shown to two significant digits)
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Based on RNC analysis. All mines based on reported 2012 production with exception of Dumont (technical report-July 25, 2013) expected Phase I and Phase II life of mine production, Gibraltar Expansion (Taseko website) life of mine production. Ni-eq., Cu- eq production calculated using the average long-term prices per tonne as of May 31, 2013 based on the 4 of 5 analysts who cover RNC and regularly publish commodity forecasts : Au: $1,250/oz, Cu: $6,283, Mo: $29,542, Ni: $19,842, Zn:$2,315 .
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APPROVAL EXPECTED: 2014
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are a number of other sources of potential financing which will likely be less dilutive than raising equity
was completed before entering into further discussions
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Values above sourced from latest publicly available technical reports filed on each project and reflects the base case pricing used in each report. Producing properties sourced from financial statements for recent periods selected when pricing consistent with long-term average pricing. Sources are detailed on slide 43 of this presentation.
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unit, each unit comprising a share and full warrant. Each warrant is exercisable at C$0.45 per share for 18 months
represents a 25% interest of the issued and outstanding shares
shortfall in supply through the end of the decade
nickel exploration opportunities with an exploration team that has a proven track record
with either Vale or Glencore
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Victoria (deep): 14.5 Mt
2.5% Ni, 2.5% Cu, 7.6 g/t PGM2
dated January 16, 2012
Totten (deep): 10.1 Mt
1.5% Ni, 1.97% Cu, 4.8g/t PGM1
release dated January 18, 2001
Totten
Vale
Aer-Kidd
McIntyre Vale
Victoria
KGHM (QuadraFNX)
Untested Potential At Depth
2.6 km 4.3 km
Mined Out Massive & Disseminated Sulphide DDH Pierce Point Mineralized Non-mineralized
Howland Robinson Rosen Source: Sudbury Platinum Corp.
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After-Tax NPV8% (US$ millions)
$1,137
After Tax IRR
15.2%
Initial Capital (US$ millions)
$1,191
Project Life (years)
33 52.5 ktpd 2016-2020 105 ktpd 2021-20361 Stockpile 2036-2049 Average
Ni Production (kt/year)
33 51 31 41
Net (C1) Cash Costs (US$/t)
$8,840 $9,833 $9,171 $9,502
Concentrator Nickel Recovery
53% 48% 34% 43%
Strip Ratio2
0.75 1.22
NSR (US$/t)
$30.90 $22.63 $13.67 $19.40
Site Operating Costs (US$/t)
$11.39 $10.31 $5.34 $8.27
Source: RNC news release dated June 17, 2013
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($ millions) Initial Capital Expansion Capital LOM Capital1 Mine 304 194 879 Process Plant 523 472 1,220 Tailings 32 55 242 Infrastructure 83 24 107 Indirect Costs 149 73 222 Contingency 100 73 173 Total 1,191 891 2,843 Operating Costs $ per tonne $ per tonne2 Mining 3,285 3.50 Processing 4,034 4.30 G & A 441 0.47 Total Site Cost 7,760 8.27 TC / RC 2,800 By-products (1,058) Total 9,502
Capital Cost Summary
2 $/tonne ore milled .
Mining cost $/tonne material mined $1.49
Operating Cost Summary
1 Life-of-mine capital includes $761 million of sustaining capital
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1. Includes transportation of concentrate 2. Based on $19,842/t ($9/lb) Ni, $26,455/t($12/lb) Co, $1,500/oz Pt, $750/oz Pd ; revised PFS is base case + trolley assist. 3. Based on price and exchange rate assumptions contained in “Key Assumptions” table found on slide 31 of this presentation 4. Average over 20 year-mine life. Over 33-year project life average annual EBITDA is $381 million per year and average annual cash flow is $228 million per year.
Units PFS
Revised PFS
May 14, 20122
Feasibility Study
Ore Mined Mt 1,070 1,066 1,179 Strip Ratio Waste : Ore 1.18 1.19 1.13 Nickel Recovery % nickel 41 45 43 Project Life Years 31 31 33 Annual Production (contained) Nickel (life of mine) Mlbs (kt) 96 (44) 108 (49) 104 (47) Nickel (life of project) Mlbs (kt) 82 (37) 91 (41) 90 (41) Cobalt (life of project) Mlbs (kt) 6 (3) 4 (2) 4 (2) PGEs (life of project) Koz 18
Total C1 Cash Costs $/lb Ni ($/t Ni) $4.68 ($10,582) $4.32 ($9,524) $4.79 ($10,560) By-product Credits $/lb Ni ($/t Ni) $0.55 ($1,213) $0.25 ($551) $0.48 ($1,058) Net C1 Cash Costs $/lb Ni ($/t Ni) $4.13 ($9,105) $4.07 ($8,973) $4.31 ($9,502) Average EBITDA4 $M $410 $470 $427 Average Free Cash Flow4 $M $228 $262 $238 Initial Capital $M $1,112 $1,112 $1,191 Total Capital $M $2,578 $2,680 $2,843 Pre-Tax NPV8% $M $1,918 $2,437 $2,003 Pre-Tax IRR 20.2% 23.5% 18.7% Post-Tax NPV8% $M $1,083 $1,420 $1,137 Post-Tax IRR 16.6% 19.5% 15.2%
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Source: RNC technical report dated July 25, 2013, available on www.sedar.com. Mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability.
Resource Category Quantity Grade Contained Nickel Contained Cobalt (000 t) Ni (%) Co (ppm) (000 t) (Mlbs) (000 t) (Mlbs) Measured 372,100 0.28 112 1,050 2,310 40 92 Indicated 1,293,500 0.26 106 3,380 7,441 140 302 Measured + Indicated 1,665,600 0.27 107 4,430 9,750 180 394 Inferred 499,800 0.26 101 1,300 2,862 50 112 Resource Category Quantity Grade Contained Palladium Contained Platinum (000 t) Pd (gpt) Pt (gpt) (000s ounces) (000s ounces) Measured 372,100 0.024 0.011 288 126 Indicated 1,293,500 0.017 0.008 720 335 Measured + Indicated 1,665,600 0.020 0.009 1,008 461 Inferred 499,800 0.014 0.006 220 92 Resource Category Quantity Magnetite Contained Magnetite
(000 t) (%) (000 t) (Mlbs)
Measured Indicated 1,114,300 4.27 47,580 104,905 Measured + Indicated 1,114,300 4.27 47,580 104,905 Inferred 832,000 4.02 33,430 73,702
Mineral Resource Statement (inclusive of mineral reserves), Dumont Nickel Project, SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc., April 30, 2013
Grades Contained Metal Category Quantity (000 t) Ni % Ni Co (ppm) Pd (gpt) Pt (gpt) Ni Mlbs Co Mlbs Pd 000 oz Pt 000 oz Proven 179,600 0.32 114 0.029 0.013 1,274 45 166 77 Probable 999,000 0.26 106 0.017 0.008 5,667 233 550 250 Total 1,178,600 0.27 107 0.019 0.009 6,942 278 716 328
Mineral Reserve Statement, Dumont Nickel Project, Snowden, June 17, 2013
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Parameter 2015 2016 2017 Long Term Nickel Price ($ per pound) $9.50 $10.00 $10.50 $9.00 Nickel Price ($ per tonne) $20,944 $22,046 $23,148 19,842 US$/CDN$ exchange rate $0.95 $0.95 $0.90 $0.90 Platinum Price ($ per ounce) $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 $1,800 Palladium Price ($ per ounce) $700 $700 $700 $700 Cobalt Price ($ per pound) $14 $14 $14 $14 Cobalt Price ($ per pound) $30,865 $30,865 $30,865 $30,865 Electricity (CDN$ per kilowatt hour) $0.0445 0.0445 $0.0445 $0.0445 Oil ($ per barrel) $90 $90 $90 $90
Note: Price assumptions for nickel, cobalt, platinum and palladium based on average forecasts for group of five institutions currently covering RNC where published forecasts are available (4 of 5 analysts for long-term nickel price as of April 25, 2013). Oil price assumption based on Thomson Reuters’ analyst consensus estimates.
Project Source Price Assumptions Au; Ag; Pd; Pt: $/oz, Others $/lb Additional Comments
RNC Dumont Technical report dated, July 25, 2013 Long term Ni $9; Co $14; Pt $1,800; Pd $700 All figures based on feasibility study highlights reported in news release. Inmet, Cobre Panama Basic engineering report, May 2012 Cu $2.75; Au $1,250; Mo $15.00; Ag $20 All figures quoted directly from basic engineering report except NSR/revenue per tonne, calculated by dividing total project NSR by total ore milled. Quadra FNX, Sierra Gorda Technical report, June 8, 2011 Cu $2.50; Mo $12.00 Au $1,000 All figures except NSR directly from technical report. NSR calculated using Table 23.23 by multiplying total payable metals X (base metal price assumptions less treatment charges for each metal outlined in Section 23.4) divided by total ore milled. Site operating costs calculated as operating costs less transport and port costs. HudBay Minerals Constancia Technical report,
Long term Cu $2.75; Mo $14.00; Au $1,150; Ag $23.00 All figures quoted directly from technical report. Terrane, Mt. Milligan (Thompson Creek) Technical report, October 23, 2009 Cu $2.00; Au $800; All figures quoted directly from technical report. Capstone, Santo Domingo Technical Report,
Cu $2.50; Magnetite $1.00/dmtu Fe; Au $1,000 All figures directly from technical report. Site operating costs calculated as operating costs less port facility costs.
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Source: Sudbury Platinum Corp
Long Section
Howland Pit AE-13: 0.20m @ 4.43%Ni, 6.95% Cu, 23.0g/t PGE’s U9E-23: 30m @ 0.33% Ni, 1.3%Cu Robinson Mine U-806: 6.8m @ 1.6%Ni, 0.80% Cu AE-1B: 2.34m @ 1.63%Ni, 0.70%Cu U9E-2: 28.65m @1.46%Ni, 0.60% Cu W03-03AW1: 8.90m @ 1.46%Ni, 0.56%Cu Rosen Mine U-610: 7.3m @ 1.0%Ni, 1.74% Cu W03-05: 1.0m @ 2.73%Ni, 0.35%Cu AE-07: 2.0m @ 1.2%Ni, 0.83%Cu AE-07A: 8.1m @ 0.30%Ni, 1.2%Cu
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Scott McLean | Chairman & CEO - B.Sc. P.Geo.
Sudbury Exploration Investment)
m drilling/yr & 20-25 employees
Geoscientists of Ontario)
Grant Mourre | President & COO- M.Sc., P.Geo.
Cliff offset dyke
Kevin Stevens | Chief Geophysicist - M.Sc. P.Geo.
Sudbury Basin
detection at depth (3D EM and Radio-Imaging)
2004 Prospector of the Year Nickel Rim South Mine
Source: Sudbury Platinum Corp.
# Year Deposit Resources (t) Status 1 1994 Onaping Depth 17,000,000 Study (deep) 2 1995 Norman West 7,500,000 Idle (deep) 3 1997 Creighton West 10,000,000 Idle (deep) 4 1997 Fraser Morgan 8,000,000 Development 5 2001 Nickel Rim South 17,400,000 Production 6 2001 Beeper 3,904 Idle 7 2001 Roland Lake 500,000 Idle 8 2002 Rapid River 70,000 Idle 9 2003 Bowell Open Pit 363,000 Idle 10 2004 Capre Lake South 580,000 Idle 11 2006 Onaping-Craig Corner 250,000 Depleted 12 2007 Onaping 2 Zone 80,000 Depleted Total Ni Discovered 61.7 million
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www.royalnickel.com 48
Share Structure:
94.4 million
8.9 million
2.1 million
7.0 million
112.4 million
~9%
RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund Limited: ~17% Balance Sheet Highlights2:
C$9.7 million
C$2.1 million
C$10.2 million
1. Shares outstanding, fully diluted shares outstanding and shareholdings as at May 8, 2014 2. Balance sheet highlights as at March 31, 2014; market capitalization at May 8, 2014