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community structure were observed at particular time points (P < 0.05). Since the site of colonisation for ETEC is the ileum, other effects on the microbiota may be localised. Therefore, analyses are ongoing to establish whether ileal microbial populations are affected by ETEC challenge and by adjustment of dietary protein levels. Rafael Silva Modelling sustainable intensification in the Brazilian livestock sector [Talk 3] Oliveira Silva, R. de1,2, Barioni, L. G3, Moran, D.2
1 School of Mathematics, The University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, Scotland. 2 Research Division, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, Scotland. 3 Embrapa Agriculture Informatics, CEP 13083-886 Campinas-SP, Brazil.
At the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change COP15 (2009) Brazil presented ambitious commitments or Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), to reduce greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs) mitigation by 2020. At COP21 (2015), the country presented new commitments and a framework to achieve further mitigation targets by 2030 as so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Both NAMAs and INDCs focus on the land use change and agricultural sectors, but the INDCs include a commitment of zero illegal deforestation in the Amazon by 2030. This research focuses on the contribution of the livestock sector to reducing GHGs through the adoption of sustainable intensification measures. We use an
- ptimisation model to: (a) define abatement potential and cost-effectiveness of key mitigation
measures applicable to the Brazilian Cerrado; (b) demonstrate the extent of cost-effective mitigation that can be delivered by the livestock sector on the INDCs, and to show a result that underpins the INDC target of zero deforestation; and (c) evaluate the consequences of reducing (or increasing) beef production on GHGs in the Cerrado. Counter-intuitively, a sensitivity analysis shows that reducing beef consumption could lead to higher GHG emissions, while increasing production could reduce total GHGs if livestock is decoupled from deforestation. End