Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College London Agropolis International, Montpellier, France September 10th 2013

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We Face 3 Interconnected Challenges • Increasing food prices and recurring food price spikes • About 1 billion people (1 in 6 of the world’s population) are chronically hungry population) are chronically hungry • We have to increase food production by 60- 100% by 2050

IMF Food Prices

1 in 3 children under 5 are malnourished – 180 million children globally They are underheight and suffer from stunted • development and possible blindness and death Stunting linked to over 3.5 m deaths of under fives •

Challenges to feeding the world by 2050 Demand Supply • Population Growth • Rising fuel and fertiliser prices • Changing Diets • Changing Diets • Climate change • Biofuel Demand • Land and water scarcity

Rise in Meat Consumption ����������������������� ���������������������� Source: World Bank, 2010. World Development Indicators �����������������

World Fertiliser Prices

Changing Climate in Africa • More than 5% reduction in • Average Annual Max Temp > 30 C length of growing period Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

Arable land is in short supply

We have to intensify

Mrs. Namarunda A single mother farming a hillside farming a hillside in western Kenya

Insecure Farm 3 Weeds Weeds Pests & Pests & Diseases Diseases 2 Drought Drought Survival line 1 1 2 3 4 Months

A Secure Farm Weeds Weeds 3 Pests & Pests & diseases diseases Soil Drought Drought Fertility 2 >2 t/ha Resilient Crops Resilient Crops Actual harvest Survival line 1 Months 1 2 3 4

Sustainable Intensification • There is not much more new arable land available and water is scarce • We have to intensify: “More with Less” • Greater productivity but minimised environmental footprint

Sustainable Intensification • Increased production, income, nutrition • On the same amount, or less, of land and water • With efficient and prudent use of inputs • Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases • While increasing natural capital & environmental services • Strengthening resilience • Reducing environmental impact

A Model of Sustainable Intensification

Relevance of Sustainable Intensification • Developed Countries • Emerging Countries • Least developed countries • All technologies as appropriate: • All technologies as appropriate: • Traditional • Intermediate • Conventional • New platform

Precision Farming (UK) GPS Soil Sampling Phosphorus Deficiency http://www.willingtoncropservices.co.uk/ Harper Adams University

Precision Farming (Africa) Microdosing in Niger

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Multiple Dimensions for Innovation • Focussing on multiple benefits • Engagement with multiple partners • Utilisation of multiple approaches • Working on multiple scales

Multiple Benefits

Key Partners in Agricultural Innovation • International Agricultural Research Centres • National Agricultural Research Systems • Universities • Universities • Private sector • NGOs • Farmers

Multiple Approaches • Agro-ecology • Genetics • Genetics • Socio-economics

Ecological Intensification • Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices, such as: • Agroforestry • Agroforestry • Integrated Pest Management • Organic farming

2-4 tonnes C /ha

No-Till Agriculture in the UK (Thurlby Grange in Lincolnshire) Benefits: • 8.75 to 10 ton/ha wheat • Crop establishment cost £245- £36/ ha £245- £36/ ha • Fuel use 96 to 43 l/ha • No wind erosion • No moisture stress • Elimination of black grass http://www.taa.org.uk/assets/pubs/Tony%20Reynolds%20v2%20Landwards%20Paper.pdf

Conservation Farming in Zambia

Genetic Intensification - Modern Plant Breeding • Plants more nutritious: • carbohydrate and protein • micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) • Plants more resilient to: • pests and diseases • pests and diseases • climate change • Plants more efficient at: • converting sunlight to food • taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere • using water

Nutritive Foods #�����$�������� ������� ������� �"������������ %���� &��������

The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs) '�����(����

A Field in Uganda

Hybrid Maize in Ethiopia

Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance • Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress • Plants rapidly recover • Plants rapidly recover • No yield penalty when stress free • In African field trials

Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda • $500 million losses a year in Uganda • Academia Sinica provided sweet pepper gene sweet pepper gene • Successfully transferred to bananas • In Ugandan field trials • Entirely government funded

Socio-economic intensification Markets

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Input Markets

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Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

Multiple Scales • Region – Intra-regional trade • Country – Ethiopian Commodity Exchange • Landscape – Watershed planning • District – Farmer Field Schools • Community – Cooperative marketing • Farm – Zai

Zai pits in Burkina Faso http://ffa.kenyafoodsecurity.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=92:soil-bund- fanya-chini-&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=154

Cooperative marketing ������������������� • ���)�������� • �������&��*� • �������������� • #�����"��� •

Farmer Field Schools

Sustainable Landscapes Ethiopia Sussex, UK

Promoting Intraregional Food Trade London Evening Post

Key Drivers of Going to Scale ? • Farmer Associations • Markets • Markets • ICT

An Agenda for Innovation • We believe that Innovation for Sustainable Intensification is going to be essential if food security is to be achieved in Africa. • The culture and institutions for innovation in Africa - what changes are needed? • What policies do we need to support innovation?

An Agenda for Innovation • Which sources of innovation are the most likely to deliver multiple benefits including resilience and sustainability? • Is building multiple benefits on the basis of an initial innovation the best way to proceed? • If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we • If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we increase yields? • Can we build in resilience without having to wait for innovations to break down? • Some innovations may also increase natural capital or reduce greenhouse gas emissions but often this is serendipitous.

An Agenda for Innovation • Farmers are great innovators - how can their innovations be brought to scale, to the community, district, nation and the world? • Going to scale involves an appropriate enabling environment and the participation of many stakeholders. environment and the participation of many stakeholders. • Finally we need to engage in a participatory learning agenda involving African and donor governments, the private sector , NGOs and farmers themselves.

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