Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sir Gordon Conway

Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College London

Agropolis International, Montpellier, France September 10th 2013

We Face 3 Interconnected Challenges

• Increasing food prices and recurring food

price spikes

• About 1 billion people (1 in 6 of the world’s

population) are chronically hungry population) are chronically hungry

• We have to increase food production by 60-

100% by 2050

IMF Food Prices

1 in 3 children under 5 are malnourished – 180 million children globally

• They are underheight and suffer from stunted

development and possible blindness and death

• Stunting linked to over 3.5 m deaths of under fives

Challenges to feeding the world by 2050 Demand

• Population Growth
• Changing Diets

Supply

• Rising fuel and

fertiliser prices

• Changing Diets
• Biofuel Demand
• Climate change
• Land and water

scarcity

Rise in Meat Consumption

• Source: World Bank, 2010.

World Development Indicators

World Fertiliser Prices

Changing Climate in Africa

• More than 5% reduction in

length of growing period

• Average Annual Max

Temp > 30 C

Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics

Arable land is in short supply

We have to intensify

• Mrs. Namarunda

A single mother farming a hillside farming a hillside in western Kenya

2 3 Weeds Weeds Pests & Pests & Diseases Diseases Drought Drought Insecure Farm

Survival line

Months

1

2 3 1 4

2 3

Weeds Weeds Pests & Pests & diseases diseases Drought Drought

A Secure Farm

Soil Fertility >2 t/ha Resilient Crops

Survival line

Months

1

2 3 1 4 Actual harvest Resilient Crops

Sustainable Intensification

• There is not much more new arable land

available and water is scarce

• We have to intensify: “More with Less”
• Greater productivity but minimised

environmental footprint

Sustainable Intensification

• Increased production, income, nutrition
• On the same amount, or less, of land and water
• With efficient and prudent use of inputs
• Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases
• While increasing natural capital & environmental services
• Strengthening resilience
• Reducing environmental impact

A Model of Sustainable Intensification

Relevance of Sustainable Intensification

• Developed Countries
• Emerging Countries
• Least developed countries
• All technologies as appropriate:
• All technologies as appropriate:
• Traditional
• Intermediate
• Conventional
• New platform

Precision Farming (UK) GPS Soil Sampling Phosphorus Deficiency

http://www.willingtoncropservices.co.uk/

Harper Adams University

Precision Farming (Africa)

Microdosing in Niger

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Multiple Dimensions for Innovation

• Focussing on multiple benefits
• Engagement with multiple partners
• Utilisation of multiple approaches
• Working on multiple scales

Multiple Benefits

Key Partners in Agricultural Innovation

• International Agricultural Research Centres
• National Agricultural Research Systems
• Universities
• Universities
• Private sector
• NGOs
• Farmers

Multiple Approaches

• Agro-ecology
• Genetics
• Genetics
• Socio-economics

Ecological Intensification

• Use ecological principles

to design agricultural practices, such as:

• Agroforestry
• Agroforestry
• Integrated Pest

Management

• Organic farming

2-4 tonnes C /ha

No-Till Agriculture in the UK (Thurlby Grange in Lincolnshire) Benefits:

• 8.75 to 10 ton/ha wheat
• Crop establishment cost

£245- £36/ ha

http://www.taa.org.uk/assets/pubs/Tony%20Reynolds%20v2%20Landwards%20Paper.pdf

£245- £36/ ha

• Fuel use 96 to 43 l/ha
• No wind erosion
• No moisture stress
• Elimination of black grass

Conservation Farming in Zambia

Genetic Intensification - Modern Plant Breeding

• Plants more nutritious:
• carbohydrate and protein
• micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
• Plants more resilient to:
• pests and diseases
• pests and diseases
• climate change
• Plants more efficient at:
• converting sunlight to food
• taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere
• using water

Nutritive Foods

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The New Rices for Africa (NERICAs)

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A Field in Uganda

Hybrid Maize in Ethiopia

Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance

• Genes from Bacterial RNA that

help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress

• Plants rapidly recover
• Plants rapidly recover
• No yield penalty when stress

free

• In African field trials

Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda

• $500 million losses a year in

Uganda

• Academia Sinica provided

sweet pepper gene sweet pepper gene

• Successfully transferred to

bananas

• In Ugandan field trials
• Entirely government funded

Socio-economic intensification Markets

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Input Markets

Certified Seed

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Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

Multiple Scales

• Region – Intra-regional trade
• Country – Ethiopian Commodity Exchange
• Landscape – Watershed planning
• District – Farmer Field Schools
• Community – Cooperative marketing
• Farm – Zai

Zai pits in Burkina Faso

http://ffa.kenyafoodsecurity.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=92:soil-bund- fanya-chini-&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=154

Cooperative marketing

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Farmer Field Schools

Sustainable Landscapes

Ethiopia Sussex, UK

Promoting Intraregional Food Trade

London Evening Post

Key Drivers of Going to Scale ?

• Farmer Associations
• Markets
• Markets
• ICT

An Agenda for Innovation

• We believe that Innovation for Sustainable Intensification

is going to be essential if food security is to be achieved in Africa.

• The culture and institutions for innovation in Africa -

what changes are needed?

• What policies do we need to support innovation?

An Agenda for Innovation

• Which sources of innovation are the most likely to deliver

multiple benefits including resilience and sustainability?

• Is building multiple benefits on the basis of an initial

innovation the best way to proceed?

• If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we
• If we reduce costly and damaging inputs how do we

increase yields?

• Can we build in resilience without having to wait for

innovations to break down?

• Some innovations may also increase natural capital or

reduce greenhouse gas emissions but often this is serendipitous.

An Agenda for Innovation

• Farmers are great innovators - how can their innovations

be brought to scale, to the community, district, nation and the world?

• Going to scale involves an appropriate enabling

environment and the participation of many stakeholders. environment and the participation of many stakeholders.

• Finally we need to engage in a participatory learning

agenda involving African and donor governments, the private sector , NGOs and farmers themselves.

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