2017 Investor Day
SMARTER MI
PEOPLE POWERED DATA DRIVEN CUSTOMER CENTRIC
SMARTER MI DATA DRIVEN CUSTOMER CENTRIC 2017 Investor Day December - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PEOPLE POWERED SMARTER MI DATA DRIVEN CUSTOMER CENTRIC 2017 Investor Day December 6 th , 2017 2017 Investor Day Genworth MI Canada Inc. 1 Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements Public communications, including oral or written
2017 Investor Day
SMARTER MI
PEOPLE POWERED DATA DRIVEN CUSTOMER CENTRICForward-looking and non-IFRS statements
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the “Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the implementation of any regulatory or legal changes introduced by the Government and the potential impact on new insurance written, as well as the Company’s future operating and financial results, sales expectations regarding premiums written, capital expenditure plans, dividend policy and the ability to execute on its futureGenworth Canada 2017 Investor Day
December 6th, 2017 – Agenda
Lunch and registration: 12 noon to 12:40 PM Stuart Levings President & CEO Craig Sweeney SVP & Chief Risk Officer Philip Mayers SVP & Chief Financial Officer Opening remarks and introduction Duration Discussion topic 5 minutes Jonathan Pinto VP, Investor Relations Strategic outlook 30 minutes Disciplined risk management 30 minutes Financial strategy and insights 30 minutes Wrap up by CEO, followed by Q & A period with all executive presenters 30 minutesAgenda and key themes
Strategic outlook Disciplined risk management Financial strategy and insights Question and answer session
Smarter M.I.
Stuart Levings
President and Chief Executive OfficerStrategic outlook
Genworth Canada overview
$4.0 billion
Market capitalization*91 million
Shares outstanding**$6.8 billion
Total assets$3.9 billion
Shareholders’ equity WHO WE ARE LARGEST private residential mortgage insurer in Canada Helped 1.5M+ families achieve homeownership1 Supported 250+ Canadian lenders1 MARKET FACTS (Q3’17) WHAT WE DO2 1 2 4 3 Mortgage Application Mortgage Insurance Application and Premium Mortgage Loan Insurance Contract Homebuyer Mortgage lender (originates mortgage) Mortgage insurerServed market: first time homebuyers
Purchase price <300K >300K - <=500K >500K …and what they purchase What our prudent home buyer profile looks like… 46.4% 34.8% 13.0% 5.8% <= 100K >100K - 150K >150K - 200K > 200K 54.2% 28.6% 12.5% 4.7% <= 35 >35 - <= 45 >45 - <= 55 > 55 Detached Condo Row/Semi 3% immigrated to Canada1 70% bought with spouse/partner1 746 average credit score1 Average household income = $102K Average borrower age = 36 years NATIONAL VANCOUVER TORONTO CALGARY 68% 9% 13% 30% 30% 23% 29% 40% 31% 68% 11% 12%2017 key accomplishments
DRIVING SHAREHOLDER VALUE THROUGH SOUND RISK MANAGEMENT AND INDUSTRY THOUGHT LEADERSHIP Loss mitigation efforts ongoing; 54% workout penetration; success rate of 96%, 12 months after workout on average3 Enhancements to risk selection, technology and processes (Smarter MI) Strong financial performance; 7% increase in quarterly dividend1; transactional premium rate increase of 18%2 in 2017 Note: Company sources.Our environment today
Risk Assessment Economic Housing & mortgage markets Insurance portfolio Regulatory Key takeawaysImpact from 2016 stress test
304 498 461 390 422 530 314 281 National Victoria Vancouver Calgary Hamilton Toronto Ottawa- Gatineau Montreal Meaningful difference in impact across markets (C$, 000s) Application volumes*B-20 qualifying rate impact
73% 12% 5% 11% 2016 – YTD 2017 Low Ratio Applications (up to 25 year amortization) GDS & TDS breach drill-down1 Eligible NIW (within debt servicing limits) TDS > 44% limit Within 200 bps of limit >200 above limit Both GDS and TDS breach GDS > 39% limit 71% 29% 43% 57% Within 400 bps of limit >400 above limit Note: Company sources. NIW represents new insurance written. 1. Based on Total GDS and/or TDS breach ($) 2. Management estimate. POTENTIAL IMPACT TO HOUSING DEMAND IN THE 5%-10%2 RANGE; IMPROVES LONG-TERM AFFORDABILITY Creates more level playing field in terms of qualifying criteria between uninsured mortgages (B-20) and insured mortgages (B-21)Market size Market share Premium rate
Growth opportunities
1 2 3
TRANSACTIONAL PREMIUMS WRITTEN EXPECTED TO BE MODESTLY HIGHER IN 2018 Transactional market penetration 80%1 ~17- 20%1 Transactional insurance penetration of ~17-20%1 (of total mortgageOur core business franchise is solid
Prudently grow key accounts Drive capital efficiency Leverage GR strategy to influence governmentA D
Proactively manage riskB C
Status Strategies to improve core MI businessLender MI allocation dynamics
CREATING VALUE THROUGH: RELATIONSHIPS, SERVICE EXPERIENCE, CLAIMS CREDIBILITY, AND INDUSTRY THOUGHT LEADERSHIPAllocation at branch level (50%1 of industry volume) Allocation at HQ (“toggle lenders”) (50%1
Prudent growth and enhanced customer experience
Growth strategy
(1) Drive enhanced customer experience and profitability through2018 outlook
GRADUAL MARKET NORMALIZATION AS STAKEHOLDERS ADJUST TO REGULATORY INTERVENTION
Ongoing economic strength, greater parity between provinces “Normalized” housing markets, particularly in the GTA & GVA B-20 stress test - pressure on conventional mortgages and higher end price segment Modest improvement in FTHB fundamentals Transactional premiums written expected to be modestly higher in 2018 Ongoing normalization of losses Emergence of risk based pricing methodology for HLTV mortgage insuranceStrategic priorities for 2018
1
Invest in process innovation and technology to drive improved customer experience4
Maintain an efficient capital structure to ensure capital strength while maximizing ROE3
Leverage our strong government relations strategy to influence our regulatory environment2
Continue to exercise prudent risk management and proactive loss mitigation CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THOUGHT LEADERSHIP IN THE MORTGAGE INDUSTRYCraig Sweeney
Senior Vice President and Chief Risk OfficerDisciplined risk management
Risk governance framework
Underwriting fundamentals - Smarter MI
APPLICATION SCREENING PROCESS
Credit QualityEnvironment
Commentary Portfolio quality › Significant embedded equity and strong average credit scores Canadian economy › Strong economic momentum across most regions going into 2018 Stabilizing oil prices › Reinvestment in the oil and gas sector in initial stages U.S. economy › Robust labour market and consumer confidence Commentary NAFTA / Recession › NAFTA negotiations expected to continue into late 2018 Housing risk: GTA / GVA › B-20 Guideline: Stress test to further reduce over heating in key regions Rising interest rates › Insurance portfolio heavily weighted to 5-yr fixed rate mortgages Household debt levels › MIC: improving borrower debt profileKEY RISKS KEY STRENGTHS
Source: Company sources, Bank of Canada, RBC economics, US EIA, bls.gov, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENTNational risk in force (RIF)
Portfolio insurance
Transactional insurance
Credit profile Outstanding insured mortgage balanceLimiting stacked risk factors
EXPOSURE TO STACKED RISK LOANS TRENDING DOWNWARD 66% 27% 5% 1% 1% >90-95 >85-90 >80-85 >75-80 <=75 95 LTV – credit score 3% 5% 8% 29% 36% 19% <=660 <=680 <=700 <=740 <=780 780+ 20% 37% 25% 18% >40 >35-40 >30-35 <=30% 95 LTV – TDSR Stacked risks (% of NIW): >90%+ LTV + <=660 credit score + >40 TDSR Halifax Montreal Ottawa Toronto Calgary Vancouver National 2017 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 2016 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 2015 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% Loan-to-value (LTV) Mix Note: Company sources; Stacked Risk = >90% LTV and <= 660 score and >40 total debt service ratio (TDSR). NIW represents new insurance written.Early term delinquency trend
Note: Company sources as at Q3’17; MI (transactional) data only.Regional risk assessment
Housing risk Economic risk Low High High GTA Quebec Alberta Atlantic Ontario (ex GTA) Prairies Key IndicatorsGTA & GVA: housing market trends
Sales-to-listings ratio (%) Source: CREA, data as at Sep’17. Note: GTA represents the Greater Toronto Area and GVA represents the Greater Vancouver Area. 20 40 60 80 100 24 20 16 12 8 4 FB Tax* 4 8 12 GTA GVA Months before the tax Months after the tax Resale price (month 24 = 100) 80 100 120 140 160 24 20 16 12 8 4 FB Tax* 4 8 12 GTA GVA Months before the tax Months after the tax Both cities have returned to a more balanced market House prices have returned to 2016 levelsGTA & GVA: housing market trends
Buffers against rising interest rates
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 % 5-yr Fixed 54% 57% 58% 78% 84% 75% 78% 82% 71% 70% 15% 15% 5yr Fixed <5yr Fixed Variable Originations between 2007-YTD 2017 MIC: Interest rate trend 2 3 4 5 6 7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 18F* 19F* Avg Contract Rate Qualifying Rate buffer % * Mortgage renewal rate is the 5 year bond rate plus 150 bps 70% of portfolio* is 5-yr fixed rate MIC: Qualifying rate *MIC originations between 2007-2017 MAJORITY OF 2013 / 14 BORROWERS WILL RENEW AT RATES EQUAL TO OR LOWER THAN THEIR ORIGINAL MORTGAGE RATEImproving gross debt service ratio
REGULATORY CHANGE SUPPORTING IMPROVED PORTFOLIO QUALITY MIC: Gross debt service ratio >35% Highly indebted borrowers Note: Data include purchases and refinances originated by federally regulated financial institutions Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written Indebted Borrowers Source: Bank of Canada, Financial System Review Nov. 2017.Regional diversification
GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSIFIED … ALBERTA EXPOSURE REDUCED TO 18% Note: Company sources.2018 annual loss ratio expectations
MIC loss ratio & CBA delinquency rates PRELIMINARY 2018 ANNUAL LOSS RATIO RANGE 15% TO 25% Preliminary 2018 Loss Ratio RangeKey takeaways
Disciplined risk management
Underwriting fundamentals reducing risk Well positioned to address economic pressures 2018 annual loss ratio range: 15% to 25% Strong portfolio qualityPhilip Mayers
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerFinancial strategy and insights
Consistently creating shareholder value
Operating earnings per share (C$, diluted) Book value per share (C$, including AOCI, diluted) EPS (net of dividends) Ordinary dividends paid Buybacks & special dividends (C$, millions) $3.432 $3.60 $3.86 $4.05 $4.23 Total EPS 6% CAGR1 Track record of year over year EPS growth 5% CAGR1Strong balance sheet
(C$, millions)Premiums earned
Net premiums written (C$, millions) Earnings curve (by age of book for a calendar year) Premiums earned (Contribution by book year)1 Q4/17 and 2018 premiums earned1 Q4/17 premiums earned1 Note: Earnings curve assumes no material change in the curve with respect to above depiction. 1 Estimates as of Q4/17 and 2018 premiums earned are for illustrative purposes only and are not to scale. 498 760 809 640 512 550 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Year 7 Year 6 Year 5 Year 4 Year 3 Year 2 Year 1 3Q YTD 2018 4Q17 (illustrative purposes only) Key drivers of 2018 premiums earned Transactional premium rate should grow by ~7% to ~3.50% in 2018 reflecting full impact of Q2 2017 price increase Premiums earned expected to be relatively flat in 2018 2017 Q3 YTD $505 millionLoss ratio
2018 FULL YEAR TARGET LOSS RATIO OF 15 TO 25% Loss ratio expected to trend higher in 2018 as losses on claims begin to normalize in Ontario and Pacific regions 39% 43% 38% 7% 23% 17% 18% 50% 46% 12% 13% 16% 22% 22% 13% 14% 14%Loss reserving primer
Unpaid principal & accrued interest Incurred but not reported delinquencies Settlement costs:Embedded value illustration
In-force portfolio
Expected over economic cycle Stress scenario 1% to 2% increase 2% to 4% increaseHigh quality investments
Federals Provincials Preferred shares Emerging markets debt Investment grade corporates3 Cash & other4 Duration: 3.9 years Book yield: 3.1%2 Invested assets (C$, millions, unless noted) $5,917 $5,867 $176MM of bond maturities for the rest of 2017, and $623MM in 2018 5,940 6,248 305 90 76 43 58 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Book value Unrealized investment gain $6.2B $6.5B Net derivative (44) Accrued income Industry / sector & subsectors Corporate bonds & emerging market debt (~40% of portfolio) Preferred shares (8% of portfolio) 59% 23% 13% 5% 34% 37% 7% 7% Pipelines & Distribution Energy Financials Industrials, Utilities & Other 4% Infrastructure Pipelines & Distribution Energy Financials Industrials, Utilities & Other Note: Company sources.Investments generate steady income stream
Interest rate hedge program Investment highlights Current book yield1 (Sept. 30/17) Current durationRegulatory capital
MCT (C$, billions) Capital build expected to continue from strong profitability MCT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN 2018 ... ACCESS TO INSURANCE COMPANY CAPITAL ABOVE OPERATING RANGE OF 160% TO 165% MAY BE LIMITED UNTIL TRANSITIONAL RELIEF RUNS OFF Total Capital Available $4.0 $4.1 Capital above internal MCT target of 157% Capital required at 157% MCT Transitional capital benefit2018 capital priorities
Funding organic growth with MCT > 160% Capital priorities Maintaining modest leverage of <= 15% Capital strengthMortgage insurance pricing
COST OF CAPITAL ACCOUNTS FOR OVER 50% OF PREMIUM RATES UNDER THE NEW REGULATORY CAPITAL FRAMEWORK Cost of capital1 45-55% Expenses 18-20% Losses 25-30% Cost of capital1 55-65% Expenses 18-20% Losses 20-25% 2016 2017 new pricing Average premium rate 2.93% Average premium rate ~3.50% ~18% premium rate increase to achieve >13% ROE Cost of capital1 65-75% Expenses 10-15% Losses 15-20% Cost of capital1 75-90% Expenses 10-15% Losses <10% 2016 2017 new pricing Average premium rate 0.34% Average premium rate ~0.76% ~123% premium rate increase to achieve >13% ROE Transactional pricing Portfolio pricingRegulatory capital, credit scores and future pricing model
MORE GRANULAR PRICING LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER TIME2018 ROE drivers
Premiums earned by book year (C$) Regulatory capital by book year (~C$3.6B) 2018 ROE by book year <10% 10-13% >13% 2013 & prior 2014 to 2016 2017 & 2018 2018 OPERATING ROE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT IN RECENT YEARS OF 12-13%… OVER THE MEDIUM TERM, TARGETING 13% + OPERATING ROE 2017/2018 2013 & prior 2014-2016 2017/2018 2013 & prior years 2014-2016 Recent books dominate premiums earned…. .…but new capital framework drives higher capital level for 2016 & prior books ….leading to lower ROE on 2013 & prior books, but 13%+ ROE for 2017 bookKey takeaways for 2018
Proven business model has positioned MIC for future financial performance
Modestly higher premiums written driven by modest growth in MI market size and market share coupled with higher average premium rates Consistent with operating ROE in recent years of 12-13% Flat premiums earned due to smaller bookStuart Levings
President and Chief Executive OfficerWrap up
MIC investment thesis
Potential for top-line growth through market size recovery, share growth, and full year impact of premium rate increase Seasoned risk management experience and high quality portfolio ROE improvement and strong capital generationProven business model and deep mortgage insurance expertise
Sound product design and strong regulatory environment Enabling execution of business strategy andCulture and values
Senior management team
Stuart Levings, President & Chief Executive Officer 15+ years of mortgage insurance experienceSenior management team
Craig Sweeney, SVP & Chief Risk Officer 15+ years of mortgage insurance experienceSenior management team
Debbie McPherson, SVP, Sales and Marketing 25+ years of mortgage insurance experienceSenior management team
Mary-Jo Hewat, SVP, Human Resources and Facilities 20+ years experienceInvestor Relations
Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M
Vice President, Investor Relations jonathan.pinto@genworth.com 905.287.5482