STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON PERMAFROST - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Yu.M. Polishchuk1,2, V.P. Dneprovskaya1, N.A.Bryksina2

1Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS,

3, Akademichesky Ave., Tomsk, 634021, Russia e-mail: vpi@ipc.tsc.ru ; phone: +7 3822 491811; fax: +7 3822 491457

2Ugra research institute of information technologies

151, Mira street, Khanty-Mansiysk, 628011, Russia e-mail: Yu_Polishchuk@ugrasu.ru; phone: +7 34671 57669

STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE STUDY OF WARMING INFLUENCE ON PERMAFROST STATE IN WESTERN SIBERIA ON PERMAFROST STATE IN WESTERN SIBERIA USING SPACE IMAGES USING SPACE IMAGES

Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies Институт химии нефти СО РАН Югорский НИИ Информационных технологий Institute of Petroleum Chemistry SB RAS Ugra research institute of information technologies

DATA

and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

Long-term time numbers of mid-annual values of air temperature, quantity of atmospheric precipitation and other climatic parameters, received at 156 meteorological stations in West-Siberian territory for the period 1955 - 2006 years have been analyzed.

Climatic data

Landsat - 1 (scаnnеr MSS), 10.08.1973 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr MSS), 27.07.1984 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr MSS), 26.06.1988 Landsat - 4 (scаnnеr ТM), 01.08.1988 Landsat - 5 (scаnnеr ТM), 20.09.1989 Resurs - F2 (scanner МК 4), 14.06.1993 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 07.08.1999 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 03.08.2001 Landsat - 7 (scаnnеr ETM), 03.07.2002 Spot - 5 (scаnnеr HRV), 20.07.2005

Remote sensing data

Collections of space images of 1973-2006 yr included:

Objects of geocryological studies

The most effective The most effective geoindicators geoindicators of cryogenic changes of permafrost territories

• f cryogenic changes of permafrost territories

under global warming using remote sensing are under global warming using remote sensing are thermokarst thermokarst lakes. Below is a

• lakes. Below is a

fragment of space image fragment of space image Landsat

Landsat-

• 7 (07.08.1999

7 (07.08.1999г г.) .) with indicated objects of

with indicated objects of geocryological studies: thermokarst lakes - 1; dried lakes (khasyreys) – 2.

1 2

CHARACTERISTICS of PILOT TERRITORIES and OBJECTS OF GEOCRYOLOGICAL STUDIES

PILOT TERRITORIES IN WEST-SIBERIAN PERMAFROST

Map of geobotanical zoning Map of geobotanical zoning

PT-5 PT-1

Map of permafrost zoning Map of permafrost zoning

Continuous permafrost section Discontinuous permafrost section Patchy permafrost section Outside the permafrost section

New Urengoy Nadym PT-5 PT-1

Some results of climatic changes analysis

Temperature change Temperature change

in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous in territory of Continuous and Discontinuous permafrost section ( permafrost section (Yamal Yamal-

• Nenets

Nenets region) region)

Mid-annual air temperature in the second period (1980-2006 years) in comparison with the period of 1973-1979 years has increased 0,96 0С

• Mean value
• confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability
• 11.0
• 10.0
• 9.0
• 8.0
• 7.0
• 6.0
• 5.0
• 4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year T, ºС

Climatic changes in territory of Patchy permafrost Climatic changes in territory of Patchy permafrost section section ( (Khanty Khanty-

• Mansyisk

Mansyisk region region) )

Mid-annual air temperature in the second period (1980-1992 years) in comparison with the period of 1955-1970 years has increased approximately 1,0 0С Quantity of atmospheric precipitation has decreased approximately 0.7 mm

• Mean value
• confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Mid-annual values of air temperature

• 5.0
• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 year T, ºС

`

35 40 45 50 55 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 year Q, mm

Climatic changes in territory of Outside the permafrost section Climatic changes in territory of Outside the permafrost section ( (southern part of Western Siberia southern part of Western Siberia) )

• Mean value
• confidence limit for 90 % confidence probability

Quantity of atmospheric precipitation Mid-annual values of air temperature

Mid-annual air temperature in the second period (1980-1992 years) in comparison with the period of 1955-1970 years has increased approximately 1,0 0С Quantity of atmospheric precipitation has increased approximately 0.2 mm

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year T, ºС 30 34 38 42 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year Q, mm

Analysis of geocryologic changes

1 2 Fragment of space images Landsat Fragment of space images Landsat-

• 1 (10.08.1973

1 (10.08.1973г г.), .), central part of PT central part of PT-

• 1

1

Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes

Space image Landsat Space image Landsat-

• 1 (10.08.1973)

1 (10.08.1973)

with indicated with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes

Fragment of space image Spot Fragment of space image Spot-

• 5

5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) )

Comparison of space images Comparison of space images Landsat Landsat-

• 1 (10.08.1973) and Spot

1 (10.08.1973) and Spot-

• 5

5 ( ( 2 20.0 0.07 7. .2005 2005) )

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 9 area

1973 (a) 1993 (b) 2002 (c) 2005 (d)

112 ha 65 ha 52 ha 47 ha

Landsat-4 (57 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Landsat-7 (30 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

а b c d

Changes of area of thermokarst lake 9 (red)

Temporal changes of lake 9 area

Т, years S, ha

а b c d

1973 1988 1993 2005

151 27 3

Landsat-4 (57m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Resurs -F2 (10 m) Spot-5 (5 m)

Consequent stages of decrease of lake 7 area

Thermokarst lake 7 areas (red) changes

Т,years S,ha

Temporal changes of lake 7 area

Decrease of Decrease of thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes’ ’ areas in time in PT areas in time in PT-

• 1

1

6 4 11 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 5

T, years S, ha

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1973 1973 -

• 2273,3

2273,3 ha ha, , 2005 2005 -

• 1809,5

1809,5 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-1: S S (1973

(1973 ) ) –

– S S (2005

(2005 ) ) =

= 463,8 ha

Normalized total area decrease - 20%

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT Analysis of lakes area changes in PT-

• 1

1

Lake number 1973 1988 2002 2005

1 26 13 2 90 80 69 31 3 14 12 3 4 61 27 2 5 76 58 49 47 6 55 53 45 39 7 151 27 8 43 22 14 13 9 112 68,3 52 47 10 66 57 36 30 11 50 25 6 12 65 61,5 61,7 65 13 34,7 33,5 33,3 33,4 14 68,5 66,8 65,6 54,9 15 25,3 22,7 24,2 24,8 16 9,8 12,6 13,4 14,1 17 52,9 56,4 57,3 57,3 18 46,8 51,3 51,3 51,2 19 65 65,8 65,5 66,5 20 118,2 121,4 121,8 122,8 21 52,2 55,8 57,4 48,6 22 21,7 26,8 27,7 27,1 23 68,4 72,7 75,7 76,2 24 33,2 34,8 35,7 35,1 25 25 25,1 26,5 28,2 26 162,8 167,4 171,5 170,2 27 22,2 24,1 24,7 24,9 28 36,9 41,5 41,3 41,6 29 8 9,7 10,3 10,2 30 17,5 22,9 21,7 21,9 31 42,4 42,7 46,2 46,5 32 29,3 32,5 32 31,6 33 49,6 50,4 50,6 49,7 34 14,9 16,2 17,6 17,6 35 33,1 34,1 38,2 39,8 36 14,1 15,9 16,5 16,9 37 11,9 13 14,6 15,4 38 32,7 35,9 35,6 36,3 39 94 94,6 100,2 100,3 40 273,2 273,2 273,1 273,2

Decrease of lake area Increase of lake area No changes

Location of pilot territories in West-Siberian permafrost

2 1 1 1 2

Fragment of space images Landsat Fragment of space images Landsat-

• 5 (1988 year), central part of PT

5 (1988 year), central part of PT-

• 2

2

Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1973 1973 – – 4609,1 4609,1 ha ha, , 2005 2005 – – 4320,3 4320,3 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-2: 288,8 ha Normalized total area decrease - 6%

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1973 1973 – – 4158 4158 ha ha, , 2005 2005 – – 3259,6 3259,6 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-3: 2898 ha Normalized total area decrease - 22%

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

1973 1973 – – 5293 5293 ha ha, , 2005 2005 – – 3448,3 3448,3 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-4: 1844,7 ha Normalized total area decrease – 35%

Analysis of lakes area changes in PT Analysis of lakes area changes in PT -

• 2, 3, 4

2, 3, 4

PT PT-

• 2

2 PT PT-

• 3

3 PT PT-

• 4

4

Fragment of space images Landsat Fragment of space images Landsat-

• 7 (07.08.1999

7 (07.08.1999г г.), .), central part of PT central part of PT-

• 5

5

Simbols: 1 – thermokarst lakes; 2 –dried lakes

1 2

Space image of PT Space image of PT-

• 5 with indicated

5 with indicated thermokarst thermokarst lakes lakes

Landsat Landsat-

• 4 (01.08.1988)

4 (01.08.1988)

Consequent stages of changes of lake 52 area in PT-5

Landsat-7 (30 m)

3.9 ha 1999 (d) 1984 (a) 1988 (b) 1989 (c) 2001 (e) 43.5 ha 45.6 ha 49.0 ha 4.4 ha

Landsat-5 (57 m) Landsat-4 (30 m) Landsat-5 (30 m) Landsat-7 (30 m)

Decrease of area (red) of thermokarst lake 52 in time

a b e c d

Temporal changes of lake Temporal changes of lake 52 52 area in PT area in PT-

• 5

5

10 20 30 40 50 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 T, year S, ha

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

19 1984 84 -

• 3165.

3165.7 7 ha ha, , 200 2001 1 -

• 2892.

2892.4 4 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT-5: S S (1984

(1984 ) ) –

– S S (2001

(2001 ) ) =

= 273,3 ha

Normalized total area decrease - 9%

Total analysis of changes of lake Total analysis of changes of lake’ ’s areas in PT s areas in PT-

• 5

5

Decrease of lake area Increase of lake area No changes

1.4 7.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 29 40.8 39.3 41.6 37.6 33.8 27 126.8 120.9 129.4 115.8 116.0 26 28.3 23.7 16.2 14.8 10.3 21 13.3 15.4 4.7 3.2 0.0 20 0.7 21.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 19 3.3 23.5 0.0 3.2 0.0 18 3.7 13.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 16 18.4 10.7 11.8 8.4 2.6 15 17.8 14.1 18.2 11.2 7.7 12 46.1 46.9 48.4 43.1 37.0 9 7.7 6.7 8.0 5.9 4.2 8 8.3 7.2 8.0 6.6 4.8 7 9.6 8.3 9.0 8.1 7.4 6 15.9 15.1 16.9 15.2 11.6 5 74.4 67.6 74.3 66.1 58.6 4 26.7 28.9 40.0 39.3 89 64.6 66.2 72.0 71.6 88 3.8 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 86 8.2 4.7 23.7 18.4 85 7.8 14.4 29.3 27.3 25.1 84 50.3 53.6 62.0 60.3 75 0.0 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 74 0.8 0.8 39.8 35.5 73 0.6 0.4 16.4 7.4 9.0 71 31.4 40.8 79.0 76.6 81.5 69 0.0 0.0 4.3 3.7 2.9 64 1.4 1.8 11.8 2.4 9.0 63 34.5 30.4 64.4 62.2 60 26.8 28.3 41.2 33.9 39.9 59 10.1 9.0 20.9 17.7 56 4.4 3.9 49.0 45.6 43.5 52 26.2 33.5 142.2 148.2 150.5 50 2.9 2.7 17.2 17.1 45 0.0 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 36 5.5 6.7 14.0 14.0 13.5 30 7.7 7.8 17.8 13.9 25 209.8 238.0 251.9 234.6 23 7.1 5.0 14.4 27.4 22 74.2 79.0 161.2 151.5 17 10.6 11.9 23.8 19.7 14 98.3 91.0 159.9 143.9 135.0 13 53.9 58.2 110.6 83.1 128.6 11 81.4 83.1 99.0 97.3 92.1 10 7.6 8.4 42.3 42.2 2 11.6 12.3 34.6 33.9 246.8 1 2001 1999 1989 1988 1984 Lake number 2001 1999 1989 1988 1984 Lake number 25.0 24.0 25.9 23.7 21.9 90 10.2 9.7 10.4 8.4 10.0 66 65.8 60.7 78.7 52.7 64.7 53 29.2 28.0 36.3 26.8 25.5 48 2.9 45.3 0.2 34.4 32 17.8 14.7 20.7 15.1 13.8 31 28.1 28.0 31.4 27.8 27.1 28 10.0 9.8 9.9 8.9 9.3 24 64.8 57.0 66.9 60.1 57.7 3 20.0 19.7 19.8 13.1 15.2 91 1.5 10.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 87 17.2 15.9 16.0 7.9 83 13.7 11.9 12.3 4.8 82 25.8 9.9 25.6 6.4 0.3 81 6.2 6.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 80 38.5 30.8 25.8 18.0 10.3 79 11.2 11.0 11.8 8.7 78 4.6 20.8 4.1 8.6 3.2 77 26.4 19.8 20.2 11.2 9.7 76 5.6 14.4 7.2 6.6 3.9 72 181.6 111.6 134.3 77.7 70 24.1 19.3 27.7 15.7 14.2 68 10.5 8.1 9.8 6.5 6.4 67 46.5 44.5 48.6 41.5 41.2 65 77.1 68.9 83.6 63.8 59.6 62 32.0 11.3 16.4 1.6 61 15.1 1.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 58 12.9 4.8 10.8 2.3 1.6 57 63.5 41.1 41.0 32.6 55 35.8 34.2 34.9 31.7 31.3 54 55.4 53.2 55.9 52.6 50.9 51 35.9 34.4 42.3 30.8 30.0 49 25.0 23.2 28.7 17.8 18.0 47 87.3 74.2 103.0 54.4 42.5 46 111.6 108.3 109.5 104.4 100.5 44 80.0 75.2 76.8 73.5 63.8 43 95.4 86.5 97.2 77.0 70.9 42 16.5 17.0 21.6 0.0 1.3 41 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 40 2.7 4.7 0.7 1.2 0.0 39 115.3 113.7 115.9 110.1 110.5 38 4.2 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 37 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 35 1.2 20.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 34 53.8 50.9 53.1 47.0 46.7 33

Temporal changes of decreasing lakes (30) in PT Temporal changes of decreasing lakes (30) in PT-

• 5

5

y = -1.7376x + 3505.7 R

2 = 0.9036

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha Decrease of lake area

Temporal changes of increasing lakes (52) in PT Temporal changes of increasing lakes (52) in PT-

• 5

5

y = 0.5619x - 1090.6 R

2 = 0.6861

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha Increase of lake area

Temporal changes of all lakes (91) in PT Temporal changes of all lakes (91) in PT-

• 5

5

y = -0.2225x + 476.79 R

2 = 0.1657

20 40 60 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Т, year S, ha All lakes

Combined map of permafrost and geobotanical zoning Combined map of permafrost and geobotanical zoning

PT-5 PT-1

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

19 1988 88 – – 2023.6 ha 2023.6 ha, , 200 2002 2 – – 1887.2 ha 1887.2 ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT- 1: 136.4 ha Normalized total area decrease - 6.7 %

Total area of lakes Total area of lakes : :

19 1989 89 – – 3571.0 ha 3571.0 ha, , 200 2001 1 – – 2892. 2892.4 4 ha ha. .

Total area decrease of lakes in PT- 5: 678.7 ha Normalized total area decrease – 19 %

Comparative analysis of lakes area changes Comparative analysis of lakes area changes

in PT in PT – – 1 (north taiga) and PT 1 (north taiga) and PT – – 5 (forest 5 (forest-

• tundra)

tundra)

PT PT-

• 1

1 PT PT-

• 5

5

Summary and Conclusion Summary and Conclusion

• 1. As a result of analysis of climatic data, the West-Siberian territory has

warmed up approximately 1°C during three last decades.

• 2. Bog landscapes spreading in the permafrost area are most sensitive to

temperature alterations because of permafrost melting. Thermokarst lakes are the most convenient object for distant monitoring of the global warming influence on the permafrost rocks state.

• 3. Study of thermokarst lake’s areas changes in time makes it possible to assess

dynamics of kryogenic processes on the basis of space images. 4. The results of investigations carried out may be used for Risk-analysis of

• il-gas industry state in northern territory of Siberia as a main oil-gas

producing region of Russia.

Thank you! Thank you!