The Effect of a City-Level Minimum Wage Policy on Supermarket Food - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Effect of a City-Level Minimum Wage Policy on Supermarket Food Prices By Processing Category Presenter: James Buszkiewicz, MPH, Doctoral Student, University of Washington Co-Authors: Amanda Spoden, Jennifer Otten, Adam Drewnowski, Seattle
Presenter: James Buszkiewicz, MPH, Doctoral Student, University of Washington Co-Authors: Amanda Spoden, Jennifer Otten, Adam Drewnowski, Seattle Minimum Wage Team
AcademyHealth’s Annual Research Meeting New Orleans, Louisiana Sunday, June 25th, 2017
Arnold Foundation (http://www.arnoldfoundation.org/grants/) and the City of Seattle (OCA 2014-04 AM03), both awarded to Dr. Vigdor.
analysis, decision to present, or preparation of the presentation.
Background
Seattle’s minimum wage Food processing
Methods
Data collection Food processing categorization Statistical analysis
Results
Key findings by location at a fixed time Key findings by location across time Differences by locations
Discussion & Conclusion
Summary of findings Explanation
Strengths, limitations, future studies
> U.S. food system is the largest employer of MW workers.
– U.S. food system accounts for ~1/3 of the total share of low-wage workers in the nation.
> Pass-through effects.
– Higher labor costs = higher food prices?
> To date, no studies have explored the effects of local-level minimum wage policies on supermarket food prices in detail at a local level.
– Food-insecure and higher-income consumersà 90% do usual grocery shopping at supermarket or supercenter (USDA ERS, 2015)
Benner et al., UC Berkeley Food Labor Research Center, 2012
Minimally processed Ultra-processed
intake of added sugar Linked to obesity and other diet- related chronic
Small increase Large increase
Minimally processed foods
Ultra-processed foods
1 1 2 7 6 5 3 4
Washing Washing Frying Flavoring Bagging
Photo credits: Washing: http://keystoneedge.com/images/Features/martinspotatochipsinc.jpg. Flavoring: https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTnQ7oNhZgUoc5sLcf9Y81vyPa-7gYcn0otkPTaiMN9XtXQZrpu. Packaging: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/kZgVWKlL6t0/maxresdefault.jpg. Frying / Dehydrating: http://www.oregontastes.com/sites/sal/files/styles/story_gallery/public/story/gallery/f7a6d718333f232c93aeb7d684047ed1.jpg?itok=LO5RhLCJ
To investigate whether the increase in minimum wage had a differential effect on supermarket food prices based on degree of processing in supermarkets affected and unaffected by the MWO.
(Seattle Obesity Study I)
cost
stores) impacted by the
Gray – Affected Light gray – Unaffected
1 month prior to policy enactment (Baseline) 1 month post policy enactment (Follow-up 1) 1 year seasonal match to follow-up 1 (Follow-up 2) 2 year seasonal match to follow-up 1 and 2 (Follow-up 3)
Initial phase-in of Seattle minimum wage ($11/hour) $13/hour phase- in of Seattle minimum wage $15/hour phase- in of Seattle minimum wage
MW= $9/47/hour at policy enactment
dietary guidelines categories
brand)
Monsivais, JADA, 2009;5(109); Drewnowski AJPH, 2012;102(8)
Supermarket Chain Brand Food Group Item Name 1 2 3 4 5 6 Meats/Beans/ Protein Bacon, sliced, per lb. (453.6 gm) $2.99 $1.99 $2.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 Beef liver (price per pound/453.6 grams) $0.99 $0.99 $1.32 $1.32 $1.76 $1.76 Cereals/ Grains Bread, white, pan, per lb. $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 Bread, whole wheat, pan, per lb. $1.29 $0.79 $1.29 $0.79 $0.79 $0.79 Fruits Apples, Red Delicious, per lb. $1.18 $1.18 $1.18 $1.18 $1.18 $1.18 Bananas, per lb. $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 $1.29 Dairy Butter, salted, grade AA, stick, per lb. $1.79 $1.29 $2.05 $1.47 $2.34 $1.68 Cheese, American processed, per lb. $1.79 $0.99 $2.05 $1.13 $2.34 $1.29 Vegetables Asparagus, bunch $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 Bok choy, fresh $0.99 $0.39 $0.99 $0.39 $0.39 $0.39 Sugars Sweets/Fats/ Oils Margarine, soft, tubs, per lb. $2.19 $1.99 $2.19 $1.99 $1.99 $1.99 Margarine, stick, per lb. $0.99 $0.79 $0.99 $0.79 $0.79 $0.79 Other Beverages Coffee, 100%, ground roast $1.79 $1.79 $1.79 $1.79 $1.79 $1.79 Malt beverages $1.99 $0.99 $1.99 $0.99 $0.99 $0.99
Food processing category: Defined as: Market basket examples:
Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods
Foods taken directly from nature; minimally processed to clean, pasteurize, freeze, or
composition coffee, rice, milk, apples, frozen turkey, broccoli (n=60)
Group 2: processed culinary ingredients
Ingredients that can be added to group 1 for flavor or seasoning used in the cooking process flour, butter, shortening, sugar (n=7)
Group 3: processed foods
Foods from group 1 that are minimally processed, often with salt or oil, with the intent of extending shelf-life or altering palatability; includes fermented alcoholic beverages tofu, canned salmon, canned corn, wine (n=12)
Group 4: ultra-processed foods
Foods that are highly processed with the intent of convenience and ready-to- eat/drink cookies, ice cream, salad dressing, sausages, cola, potato chips (n=27)
Martínez Steele, BMJ Open, 2016;6(3)
standardized
consistent over time
Market basket cost (items summed), cost by food group, cost by processing category
Multi-level, linear mixed model
attributable to the MWO
enactment
Paired t- test
differences by location
across time
Unpaired t-test
differences by location at a
fixed time
Average market basket cost pre-, post-, and one-year following minimum wage law implementation in Seattle and King County
Average market basket cost pre-, post-, and one-year following minimum wage law implementation in Seattle and King County
up 1: -0.007 (SE=0.046, P=0.886).
Follow-up 2: -0.021 (SE=0.178, P=0.908).
up 2: -0.028 (SE=0.180, P=0.879).
Market basket item prices by food processing category by store chain and location at baseline
$247.09 $247.47 $202.89 $203.22 $189.18 $190.95 $187.42 $180.69 $170.61 $169.34 $158.36 $152.07
$35.6 1 $36.4 1 $19.8 3 $17.7 3 $21.4 9 $22.5 4 $18.4 6 $19.6 7 $18.8 2 $17.7 6 $13.5 8 $15.2 8 $46.63 $46.36 $30.38 $28.51 $28.45 $29.26 $31.33 $29.16 $27.28 $23.90 $32.48 $30.47$113.54 $115.38 $80.27 $76.05 $58.87 $59.49 $60.21 $59.47 $55.34 $59.43 $52.92 $53.90 $442.88 $445.62 $333.37 $325.51 $297.99 $302.23 $297.43 $289.00 $272.04 $270.43 $257.34 $251.73 6 - Se a ttle 6 - K C 5 - Se a ttle 5 - K C 4 - Se a ttle 4 - K C 3 - Se a ttle 3 - K C 2 - Se a ttle 2 - K C 1 - Se a ttle 1- K C
MARKET BASKET PRICE SUPERMARKET CHAIN
Baseline
Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods Group 2: processed culinary ingredients Group 3: processed foods Group 4: ultra-processed foods
Baseline (mean)
Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods
($1.97) Group 2: processed culinary ingredients
(-$0.27) Group 3: processed foods
($1.48) Group 4: ultra-processed foods
(-$0.43)
Market basket item prices by food processing category by store chain and location at follow-up 1
$252.45 $254.50 $195.40 $193.85 $192.42 $190.33 $182.76 $189.83 $165.75 $169.78 $163.93 $165.59
$39.01 $34.05 $20.13 $20.03 $22.19 $22.29 $20.32 $20.27 $16.12 $16.12 $13.88 $12.30 $42.78 $44.17 $27.78 $27.88 $31.43 $30.34 $29.03 $24.93 $26.20 $25.90 $30.26 $25.82$113.74 $108.80 $70.89 $73.53 $62.86 $61.72 $60.03 $58.67 $56.98 $55.76 $54.11 $51.65 $447.98 $441.51 $314.20 $315.29 $308.90 $304.68 $292.14 $293.70 $265.04 $267.55 $262.18 $255.36 6 - Se a ttle 6 - K C 5 - Se a ttle 5 - K C 4 - Se a ttle 4 - K C 3 - Se a ttle 3 - K C 2 - Se a ttle 2 - K C 1 - Se a ttle 1- K C
MARKET BASKET PRICE SUPERMARKET CHAIN
Follow-up 1
Group 1: Unprocessed or minimally processed foods Group 2: Processed culinary ingredients Group 3: Processed foods Group 4: Ultra-processed foods
Baseline (mean) Follow-up 1 (mean)
Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods
($1.97)
($-1.86) Group 2: processed culinary ingredients
(-$0.27)
($1.10) Group 3: processed foods
($1.48)
($1.41) Group 4: ultra-processed foods
(-$0.43)
($1.41)
Market basket item prices by food processing category by store chain and location at follow-up 2
$234.45 $223.89 $200.65 $197.85 $189.36 $194.84 $193.84 $191.47 $170.75 $163.35 $140.74 $131.73
$43.22 $43.22 $20.18 $20.09 $24.55 $25.89 $22.28 $22.28 $19.68 $19.88 $11.11 $10.62 $38.56 $38.57 $29.43 $29.43 $32.01 $32.80 $29.74 $31.47 $26.37 $27.29 $21.80 $22.14$120.98 $120.72 $64.96 $64.58 $64.72 $71.03 $61.71 $63.28 $53.88 $50.01 $50.00 $49.44 $437.21 $426.40 $315.22 $311.95 $310.64 $324.56 $307.57 $308.50 $270.68 $260.53 $223.65 $213.93 6 - Se a ttle 6 - K C 5 - Se a ttle 5 - K C 4 - Se a ttle 4 - K C 3 - Se a ttle 3 - K C 2 - Se a ttle 2 - K C 1 - Se a ttle 1- K C
MARKET BASKET PRICE SUPERMARKET CHAIN
Follow-up 2
Group 1: Unprocessed or minimally processed foods Group 2: Processed culinary ingredients Group 3: Processed foods Group 4: Ultra-processed foods
Baseline (mean) Follow-up 1 (mean) Follow-up 2 (mean)
Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods
($1.97)
($1.86)
($4.44) Group 2: processed culinary ingredients
(-$0.27)
($1.10)
(-$0.16) Group 3: processed foods
($1.48)
($1.41)
(-$0.63) Group 4: ultra-processed foods
(-$0.43)
($1.41)
(-$0.47)
Change in average price by food item by food processing category in Seattle and King County between baseline, follow-up 1, and follow-up 2
Comparison of the change in average item market basket price between Seattle and King County by food processing categorization at baseline, follow-up 1, and follow-up 2
Food Processing Category (average item price) Seattle Market Basket Item Prices Average (SE) King County Market Basket Item Prices Average (SE) Difference in Market Basket Item Prices: Seattle-King County (SE) P value Group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed Baseline (B) $3.25 (0.23) $3.22 (0.23) $0.03 (0.32) 0.917 Follow-up 1 (F1) $3.25 (0.23) $3.28 (0.23)
0.922 Follow-up 2 (F2) $3.21 (0.23) $3.18 (0.23) $0.03 (0.32) 0.933 Change B & F1 $0.01 (0.19)
0.812 Change B & F2 $0.05 (0.19) $0.04 (0.19)
0.981 Change F1 & F2 $0.04 (0.19) $0.10 (0.19) $0.06 (0.27) 0.831 Group 2: processed culinary ingredients Baseline (B) $3.10 (0.45) $3.14 (0.45)
0.949 Follow-up 1 (F1) $3.19 (0.50) $3.03 (0.50) $0.16 (0.70) 0.822 Follow-up 2 (F2) $3.48 (0.55) $3.57 (0.55)
0.912 Change B & F1
$0.20 (0.61) 0.743 Change B & F2 $-0.38 (0.44)
0.944 Change F1 & F2
0.689
Comparison of the change in average item market basket price between Seattle and King County by food processing categorization at baseline, follow-up 1, and follow-up 2
Food Processing Category (average item price) Seattle Market Basket Item Prices Average (SE) King County Market Basket Item Prices Average (SE) Difference in Market Basket Item Prices: Seattle-King County (SE) P value Group 3: processed foods Baseline (B) $2.73 (0.27) $2.61 (0.27) $0.12 (0.38) 0.747 Follow-up 1 (F1) $2.60 (0.25) $2.49 (0.25) $0.12 (0.35) 0.740 Follow-up 2 (F2) $2.47 (0.23) $2.52 (0.23)
0.873 Change B & F1 $0.13 (0.28) $0.12 (0.28)
0.987 Change B & F2 $0.26 (0.29) $0.08 (0.29)
0.665 Change F1 & F2
0.671 Group 4: ultra-processed foods Baseline (B) $2.60 (0.32) $2.61 (0.32)
0.972 Follow-up 1 (F1) $2.58 (0.34) $2.53 (0.34) $0.05 (0.48) 0.913 Follow-up 2 (F2) $2.61 (0.35) $2.63 (0.35)
0.972 Change B & F1 $0.02 (0.18) $0.08 (0.18) $0.07 (0.26) 0.789 Change B & F2
$0.00 (0.26) 0.995 Change F1 & F2
0.785
may not be great enough to impact food prices
approaches
the food workers in the food processing chain
state
basket costs, or at the item-level, between regions across time by food processing group
ingredients cost in both Seattle and King County between follow-up 1 and follow-up 2 and between baseline and follow-up 2 (p < 0.01); and, for group 1: unprocessed or minimally processed foods in King County between baseline and follow-up 2 (p = 0.05).
significant differences by overall or by food processing group.
policy enactment will provide further insights.
James Buszkiewicz, MPH Doctoral Student, Department of Epidemiology Research Assistant, Minimum Wage Study University of Washington School of Public Health Email: buszkiew@uw.edu