The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of Environmental Science & Mgmt

Global Demand for Animal Protein 4

Land Area

Population Size

Population 2050

Per Capita Income vs % Protein from Meat

Growth in Wealth

Global Demand for Animal Protein ) Growth by 2050 How will this growth be met? 10

1 B hectares 3 G tons CO2/yr Cleared for Agriculture Food production area as fraction of total cropland 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Biodiversity, GHG, Nutrient loading Bad Options on Land challenges - Tilman et al. 2011

Energy Production Livestock Transportation Fossil Fuel Retrieval Agriculture Residential Manufacturing Land Use Waste Disposal Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 50" 0" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Fed"Invertebrates" What is Consumed Cost Depends on Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

d Feed 5% Burps y 9% Enteric fermentation 39% Manure 21% Feed Land-use change Feces Energy and post-farm 26% The Global Warming Pie Emissions from Everywhere

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 50" 0" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Fed"Invertebrates" Oceans have Lower Unfed" GHG Costs Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Fisheries Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

Option 1: Fix Fisheries

% Fisheries with Good Harvest Where We are Today Costello et al. in review

% Fisheries with Good Harvest 8 MMT of Filets 300 MMT more Fish Alternative Futures $40 B more Profits

Change in Catch (MMT) 0 1 14 14 5 Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion) 12 12 Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) ● 0.2 4 4.4 10 10 China Indonesia 3 8 8 MSY India (MMT, of conservation concern) 6 6 2 Japan 4 4 Philippines Thailand 1 Malaysia 2 2 Viet Nam S. Korea Taiwan 0 0 A 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 Change in Biomass (MMT) Projections for Every Fishing Country

Global Demand for Animal Protein ) Growth by 2050 Fix Fisheries 20

Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 50" 0" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Aquaculture Option 2 Fed"Invertebrates" Oceans have Lower Unfed" GHG Costs Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling"

A Thought Experiment ) Growth by 2050 What are the Environmental Costs? 22

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand n a e b y o S p l e K n w o r B e r t u a t e l u h c W a u q A d e f n U e c i R e s r u g t g l u E c a Greenhouse Gas u Emissions q A h s i F y r i a D t a e m g i P y r t l u t a o o P G & n o t t u M f e e B 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Gigatons CO2 Added

Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand p l e K e r n u w t l o u r c B a u q A e d e r u f n t l u U c a u q A h s i F n a e b y o S s g g E y r t l u o P Water Used y r i a D e c i R t a e t a h o W G & n o t t u M f e e B t a e m g i P 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Km3 Water

1.4x10 +7 1.2x10 +7 1.0x10 +7 Km2 Added 8.0x10 +6 6.0x10 +6 4.0x10 +6 2.0x10 +6 0 M F S U B D P E R W P i o n e o g a i u i s c h g y e u g f i h t e e m r e t b f l s y o t A a d e r e n y t q a A a & u n t q a u G c a u o c l a t u u t l t r u e r e Area Used Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050

75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050

95% of NZ 75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050

Greenhouse Warming Potential Thought Experiment #2 (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

72% of China 132% of USA Greenhouse Warming Potential Thought Experiment #2 (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

72% of China 132% of USA 95% of Australia Greenhouse Warming Potential Thought Experiment #2 (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050

Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater

Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater

Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater

Take Away • SURF >>> TURF • Shifting Future Diets to More Seafood • Behavior Change • Remove Constraints • New Policies

1.4x10 +7 1.2x10 +7 Current Global Average Diet 1.0x10 +7 Km2 Added 8.0x10 +6 6.0x10 +6 4.0x10 +6 2.0x10 +6 0 M F S U B D P E R W P i o n e o g a i u i s c h g y e u g f i h t e e m r e t b f l s y o t A a d e r e n y t q a A a & u n t q a u G c a u o c l a t u u t l t r u e r e Area Used Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand

Diet Preferences Are Favorable

Limits on Fishmeal Emerging Feeds Constraints on Feed Fed Aquaculture

New Policies Regulatory reform, Carbon Tax