The Future of Freight and the Economy of Alberta David B. Layzell, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC.

Co-founder & Research Director, The Transition Accelerator Professor & Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB

E: dlayzell@ucalgary.ca; W: www.cesarnet.ca

The Future of Freight and the Economy of Alberta

Sponsors

Jarislowsky Foundation

EMISSIONS REDUCTION ALBERTA

About the Accelerator

Support for Accelerator Initiatives

q Charitable, non-profit organization (2019) q Accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy q Pan-Canadian, supporting sectoral & regional solutions

The Accelerator’s Approach to the Climate Change Challenge

A

…in our fundamental socio-technical systems: Ø Personal mobility Ø Goods movement Ø How we live Ø What we eat Ø Industrial processes

1.

• 1. REC

ECOGNIZE TH THAT

TRAN

RANSFORM RMATIVE CHA HANG NGES ARE ARE NEED EEDED ED:

600 400 200 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 800

Mt CO2e/yr

Canada’s GHG Challenge

Many – perhaps most – Canadians do not see climate change as a su suffici ciently co compelling reason to make major changes in our human systems. …especially if there is a perceived cost.

2.

• 2. ADM

DMIT TH THAT CLI LIMATE

ACT

CTION IS IS NOT OT

COM

OMPELLING:

…expand the problem space to include issues that are compelling to Canadians because solutions offer: q More convenience; q Lower costs; q Greater comfort; q Improved health; q Higher quality of life.

3.

• 3. WE MU

MUST MA MAKE TH THE

PRO

ROBLEM BIG IGGER:

Ludicrous?

…Isn’t the climate change problem big enough?

…we have precedents:

q International trade agreements; q Collective bargaining; q …

Other, more compelling reasons for transformative systems change: q Accidents q Congestion q Air pollution q High cost of vehicle

• wnership

q Parking q Urban Sprawl

• 3A. E

. EXA

XAMPLE:

PER

ERSONAL MOB OBILITY What if there were highly compelling technology, business model or social innovations that could address these challenges AND radically reduce GHG emissions? [There may be…]

Transition Pathways are about linking the vision of where people want to go (the destination) with the course required to get there, …and embedding decarbonization into that journey.

4.

• 4. IDE

DENTIFY TRA RANS NSITION

PAT

ATHWAYS:

1. 1.CR CRED EDIBLE E (Technically, economically, socially) 2. 2.CO COMPEL ELLING (Desired by key stakeholders)

• 4A. R

. REQ

EQUI UIREM EMEN ENTS OF OF A

TRAN

RANSITION PAT ATHWAY

Alternative Pathway ’False’ Target Longer term Target Dead end pathway

X

C a p a b l e P a t h w a y We are here

X

Interim Target

3.

• 3. CAPABLE of achieving

the target(s).

Ch Chart the e pathway & as assign respo ponsibilities Kn Know the tools we ha have avai ailab able Un Understand wh where we are now w Id Identif tify a a s share red de destination

THE

HE ACCEL CCELER ERATOR’S MET ETHODOLOGY AN AND STRA TRATE TEGY

• 1. Understand the system

needing transformation;

• It has to be about more than just GHGs
• Includes strengths, weaknesses & forces for change
• 2. Codevelop shared vision(s)

and possible pathway(s);

• Innovative industry, gov’t, academic & societal players
• Vision includes GHG management + other needs
• 3. Analyze to select and

improve pathway(s);

• Techno-economic and environmental assessment
• Pathways must be CREDIBLE (technically, ecpnomically, socially),

COMPELLING (to key stakeholders) & CAPABLE (of achieving goal)

iterative

• 4. Advance by starting the

journey.

• Identify RD&D needs, inform decision makers
• Spin-off industry-led Consortia to pilot, demonstrate,

commercialize

The Future of Freight and the Alberta Economy

B

THE

HE ROA OAD FRE REIGHT

SECT

ECTOR TOD ODAY:

q High GHG emissions q Air pollution q Facing a labour shortage q Low margins q Sub-optimal load management (empty km) q Congestion & accidents q High cost of diesel engine maintenance

The industry wants change and is interested in innovative ideas.

EME

MERGING NG TEC ECHNOL OLOG OGY, B

, BUS

USINESS MOD ODEL EL,

, POL

OLIC ICY & S

& SOC

OCIA IAL INNO NNOVATIONS NS… E E

• C
• C
• m

m m m e e r r c c e e

Battery Electric (BE)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric (HFCE) Nikola Tesla

Au Autonomous, Connected Trucks Ph Physical Internet U b U b e e r r F F r r e e i i g g h t h t Ba Battle e of the e El Electric Trucks

What are the implications for the freight sector and the province?

BAN

ANS ON ON INT NTERNA RNAL COM OMBUSTION ON ENG NGINE NES

(17 17 countries & 17 17 regions to date)

Countries Regions

Netherlands Denmark India Ireland Key New Vehicles only Imported vehicles All Vehicles * Diesel only @ start phaseout Taiwan China France England Wales N Ireland Scotland Germany Israel Norway Sweden @ Costa Rica Athens Auckland Barcelona Cape Town Copenhagen Heidelberg London Los Angeles Madrid Milan Athens* Madrid* Mexico City* Rome* British Columbia

Today

Given the importance of diesel to Alberta, we need a ‘Plan B’

2020 2030 2040 2050

Data from https://climateprotection.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Survey-on-Global-Activities-to-Phase-Out-ICE-Vehicles-FINAL-Oct-3-2018.pdf

Mexico City Paris Quito Rome Seattle Vancouver @ Norway

Light/Med Heavy SCO Synbit Dilbit Other Feedstock Other Fuel Input Diesel Gasoline

Aviation Fuel

Other RPP Conversion Loss 2 4 6 8 10

Alberta Crude Oil Production RPP from Alberta Oil

EJ/year

Transport fuels = 77%

• f all RPPS
• A. Alberta Crude Production and Refining

Refinery Input

AB Crude Production Refinery Input RPP from AB oil

DIE

IESEL FR FROM ALBE LBERTA OIL IL

HDV

• Oth. Road

Freight Oth. Freight Passeng er Other Uses

30 60 90 100 200 300 AB Diesel Use Kinetic Energy (PJ/year) PJ/year

• C. Alberta Diesel Use

Albert a Other 1,000 2,000

Diesel Demand

PJ/year

• B. Demand for

Diesel from AB Crude 9x

1x

Total Diesel Demand AB Diesel Demand

: S : Supplie ies 9 s 9X m more re t than t that u use sed in in A Alberta

ELE

LEMENTS OF OF AN IDE DEAL ‘P

‘PLA

LAN B’

B’ FO

FOR TH THE ‘F

‘FUT

UTUR URE OF OF FRE REIGHT’

’

q Alberta stays in the transportation fuel business: Ø Supplies the world with ~9X more zero-emission, diesel fuel alternative than that used in the province; Ø Benefits to the economic and jobs equal to, or greater than current Fossil Diesel – Internal Combustion Engine (FD-ICE) energy system q A transformed, more competitive freight transportation sector: Ø More efficient, fewer empty km, better asset use; Ø Reduce or eliminate labour shortages; Ø Fewer Accidents, less congestion Ø Zero-emission fuels (with air pollution and GHG benefits) providing equal or better vehicle performance.

COM

OMPARISON ON OF OF FOS OSSIL DIE IESEL (F

(FD-IC ICE) A ) ALT

LTERNATIVES

Bio-based Diesel Battery Electric H2 Fuel Cell Electric Power, Torque Range & Fueling Time Tare Weight Vehicle Cost Maintenance Cost Fuel Cost Air Pollution Targets GHG Targets Resource Supply C Mgmt Potential N/A N/A Economic Potential

Fit for Freight Service Fit for AB

Performance Relative to the FD-ICE

For both the freight sector and the province, the H2 fuel cell electric energy system supporting freight transport has the most promise.

Bad Poor Similar Good

Ranking

THE

HE ECO CONOMIC OPPO PPORTU TUNITY FO FOR HYD YDROGEN IN IN ALB LBERTA

H2 is a value added commodity. Per GJ, H2 would sell for 3-10X the price of natural gas and crude oil.

. . Alberta’s NA Market for Diesel: q AB crude for diesel production: $18B/yr q H2 equivalent: $56B/yr

HOW

OW TO TO ADV DVANCE DEP EPLOYMEN ENT OF OF THE THE H2 ECO CONOMY ECO COSYSTEM

Phase 1: Demand Dev’t

• Do the key stakeholders

(e.g. trucking comp.) find the technology compelling?

Phase 2: Supply Technol.

• Can we provide distrib-

uted, cost-effective H2 with minimal emissions to grow demand?

Phase 3: Infrastructure

• Develop strategies and

deploy the infrastructure for the efficient production & distribution

• f AB H2 across N.A.

EMISSIONS REDUCTION ALBERTA

AN INDU

NDUSTRY-LED ED, $

, $15M CON

ONSOR SORTIA SUP UPPORTED ED BY BY

EMI

MISSIONS RED EDUC UCTION

ALB

LBER ERTA WI WITH $7

$7.3M 3M.

Project Lead:

22

FEATURES: Two H2 Fuel Cell Electric Class 8 Trucks

ü 700km Range ü Heavy Weight (63.5t) ü Zero Tailpipe Emissions

Operated on AB Highways by AB Carriers

ü Daily Trips Between Edmonton and Calgary

Hydrogen Produced from AB natural gas

ü Steam Methane Reformed (no C mgmt.) ü Cascade Refueling

July 2019 – Dec 2020: Build vehicles Jan 2021 to June 2022: Test Vehicles Project Managed by Zen à

Electric drive e-axles Fuel cell, battery & control system Build on Glider by:

23

HYD

YDROGEN FUEL UEL

CEL

ELL ELE LECTRIC IC

HYB

YBRID ID VEH EHICL CLE

Ø ~100 kg of H2 @ 350 bar / vehicle Ø PEM fuel cell power generation System to generate electricity from H2 Ø Batteries for peak power, regenerative breaking, etc Ø Electric drive e-Axles Ø Highly integrated design by:

24

HYD

YDROGEN

PRO

RODUCTION AN AND

DEL

ELIVER ERY:

Natural Gas Water

Ø Low cost SMR hydrogen Ø Purification to SAE J2719 quality standards Ø Compression to 450 bar into HTEC Power Cubes on a truck Ø Cascade fueling of vehicles to 350 bar

Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) CO2 H2 Purified & compressed to 450 bar in Power Cubes

Power Cubes by

Released to atmosphere in this project To CCUS for future projects Cascade refueling of trucks

25

VEH

EHICL CLE

PER

ERFORMAN ANCE CE

ASSE

SSESSM SSMENT &

& SCAL

CALING STRA TRATE TEGY

Ø Assess and report on vehicle performance under AB conditions Ø Engage industry, gov’t, academic & ENGO partners wanting to participate in next stage Ø Identify optimal locations for fueling stations, deployment strategies

WHY A HYDROGEN ECONOMY MAKES SENSE FOR ALBERTA

• 1. Alberta can make hydrogen at an extremely low cost

q From stranded natural gas q From In Situ gasification of coal or bitumen q From wind power (while reducing the cost of a low C grid)

• 3. As the anchor tenant in a H2 economy, the Alberta freight

sector is an excellent partner

• 2. Alberta geology can store vast amounts of byproduct CO2

q Preventing GHG emissions q The province owns the pore space

• 4. Alberta has the technical expertise to keep the province in the

transportation fuel business for the foreseeable future

q As a producer of zero-emission fuels, Alberta could rebrand itself as part of the solution to climate change

Other

_________ Demand Carbon Capture, Utilization

• r Storage (CCUS)

New industry Oxy-fired fossil fuel to produce CO2 for CCUS Energy storage R e n e w a b l e p

• w

e r g e n e r a t i

• n

f

• r

b

• t

h g r i d a n d f u e l s u p p l y Novel Tech R e f

• r

m i n g

• f

C

• b

a s e d f u e l s t

• H2

a n d C O2

• r

C f

• r

C C C U S Electrolysis of water to H2 + O2 Direct Solar to H2 P i p e l i n e s ( H

2

• r

b l e n d e d N G / H

2

) Tube Truck Chemical Carriers (Ammonia, Hydrides, Methanol, etc.) Cold Gas or Liquid H2 Compressed Gas (350 or 700 Bar)

Personal Transport Freight Transport

_________ Fueling _________ Distribution _________ Production _________ Ancillary Activities Other Carriers (e.g. NH3)

THE

HE HYD YDROGEN ECO CONOMY ECO COSYSTEM EM

Freight Transport is the Anchor Tennant