The Historic Rise of One-Person Households: 1850-2010 by Rose M. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Historic Rise of One-Person Households: 1850-2010 by Rose M. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 26, 2023 312 likes •476 views

The Historic Rise of One-Person Households: 1850-2010 by Rose M. Kreider and Jonathan Vespa U.S. Census Bureau This paper is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in progress. The views

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The Historic Rise of One-Person Households: 1850-2010

This paper is released to inform interested parties of

  • ngoing research and to encourage discussion of work in
  • progress. The views expressed on statistical and

methodological issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

by Rose M. Kreider and Jonathan Vespa U.S. Census Bureau

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The historic rise of living alone: 1850 – 2010

4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 36,000

10 20 30

No data

% one-person households # of one-person households

(%)

(thousands)

1850 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 1900 ‘10 ‘20 ’30 ’40 1950 ‘60 ’70 ‘80 ‘90 2000 ‘10

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SLIDE 3

Data

  • Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples

(IPUMS)*, 1850-2000

  • 2010 Census internal file

* Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis, MN: Minnesota Population Center [producer and distributor], 2010.

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One-person households by age and sex, 1850 to 2010 (%)

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54 61 55 60 53 52 48 40 34 27 25 24 31 31 34 34 5 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 4 5 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 24 23 29 27 24 26 29 31 32 36 34 31 30 29 30 30 9 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 14 15 18 19 16 14 11 10 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 6 7 8 10 14 15 17 17 15 1850 1860 1870 1880 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) 1850-2000, 2010 Census. Differences in percentages between years or within years less than 3 percentage points may not be significantly different due to sampling error.

Women 75+ Women 65-74 Women <65 Men 75+ Men 65-74 Men <65

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57.1 63.1 48.4 47.9 49.5 48.4 47.8 45.1 40.8 35.8 32.3 30.2 33.0 32.9 34.2 35.0 3.7 0.5 11.5 12.2 11.4 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.0 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 4.7 5.2 5.9 0.0 1.7 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 3.7 35.9 32.1 31.4 31.0 29.7 32.1 35.6 41.0 46.8 53.6 56.8 58.2 54.3 52.8 47.9 44.4 3.2 2.4 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.9 3.5 1850 1860 1870 1880 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) 1850-2000, 2010 Census. Differences in percentages between years or within years less than 3 percentage points may not be significantly different due to sampling error.

Women Other Women Black Women White Men Other Men Black Men White

One-person households by race and sex, 1850 to 2010 (%)

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The historic rise of living alone: 1850 – 2010

10 20 30

No data

% one-person households

Up to 1930 1940 to 1970 1980 to 2010 Omitted in models (%) 1850 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90 1900 ‘10 ‘20 ’30 ’40 1950 ‘60 ’70 ‘80 ‘90 2000 ‘10

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Logistic Regression Models

  • Controls for householder’s characteristics
  • Gender
  • Race (white, black, other)
  • Age
  • 15-34
  • 35-64
  • 65-74
  • 75 and over

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Model 1: Year and Householder Characteristics

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0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 1850 to 1930 1940 to 1970 (1980 to 2010) Male householder (Female householder) Age 15 to 34 (Age 35 to 64) Age 65 to 74 Age 75 and older (White) Black Other race Odds Ratios

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Macro level variables

  • Life expectancy (men’s, women’s)
  • Gap in life expectancy (women – men)
  • Age at first marriage (men’s, women’s)
  • Percent white in total US population
  • Real per capita GDP

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Models with men’s life expectancy

  • Years with higher male life expectancy are

associated with lower odds of one-person households

  • In model for those age 65-74, coefficient for

1940-1970 almost doubled after addition of men’s life expectancy: .065 to .118 (odds went from 1.06 to 1.12)

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Models with per capita GDP

  • Per capita GDP grew from $2,303 in 1850 to

$47,710 in 2010 (2010 dollars)

  • Higher per capita GDP is associated with

higher percentage of one-person households

  • True for all age groups
  • For those 75+: odds of one-person

households are 5.5 times for each logged- unit increment of GDP

  • For those 35-64: odds are 2.0 times as high

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Average percent of one- person households

12

11%

5 10 15 20 25

1940 – 2010 1900 – 1930 257% Gap Proportion of the gap due to… Proportion of the compositional changes due to…

Demographic traits Year Men’s life expectancy

89%

. . . effect of covariates . . . compositional changes in the population

  • 172%

3%

Decomposition of one-person households (w/ life exp.)

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Average percent of one- person households

13

  • 1%

5 10 15 20 25

1940 – 2010 1900 – 1930

  • 52%

Gap Proportion of the gap due to… Proportion of the compositional changes due to…

Demographic traits Year GDP (per capita)

101%

. . . effect of covariates . . . compositional changes in the population

145% 8%

Decomposition of one-person households (w/ GDP)

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Conclusions

  • Men’s life expectancy = 1-person hholds
  • Real per capita GDP = 1-person hholds
  • Decomposition shows: compositional shifts very

important for growth of 1-person households

  • Economic factors also have a strong effect on

growth of 1-person households

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Contact

  • Rose Kreider rose.kreider@census.gov
  • Jonathan Vespa jonathan.vespa@census.gov

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