The Illinois Statewide Travel Demand Model Agenda Introduction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Illinois Statewide Travel Demand Model

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Agenda

• Introduction
• Task 2.1 Data Assessment
• Task 3.1 MPO Model Incorporation
• Task 3.2

– Zone Development – Network Development – Speed-Capacity Routines

• On-going Work

– Future Year Scenario – Freight Model Development – Passive Data Processing

Introduction

4

Status Update

• Network and Zone

Development Tasks Now Complete

5

Status Update

• Network and Zone

Development Tasks Now Complete

• On-going

– Development of Future Year Scenarios

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Status Update

• Network and Zone

Development Tasks Now Complete

• On-going

– Development of Future Year Scenarios – Development of Freight and Passenger Demand Models

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PHASE 1

• TIME:

Aug 2019

• PRODUCT:

ILSTDM v1 will have fixed base and future year demand (OD tables) that can be assigned to the statewide highway network for different highway network investment scenarios

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PHASE 2

• TIME:

Nov 2020

• PRODUCT:

ILSTDM v2 will have dynamic advanced trip-based passenger demand and commodity flow-based freight models as well as the original v1 demand

Introduction

Overview of CDM Smith’s tasks:

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Task Purpose

2.0 - Data Assessment

• Assess all available data sources for model

development

• Identify additional data needs
• Make recommendations for the use of data

3.0 - Model Development

• Adapt available regional models
• Model Network and TAZ development
• Freight Model Development

4.0 - Future Year Forecast

• Develop model network and TAZ for future

year scenarios

Data Assessment

Data Assessment

Objectives

▪ Assess all available data sources for model development ▪ Identify additional data needs ▪ Make recommendations for the use of data

Data Assessed

▪ Model input data

• Network, TAZ, SE data, external station data

▪ Sub-model estimation and calibration data

• Trip generation & distribution, model split, time of day, freight model

▪ Model Validation data

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Data Assessment

Available data sources – Data Inventory Matrix

▪ Categorize available data sources by model component. ▪ Detailed data dictionary and data attribute lists were also developed.

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Dataset Network TAZs & SE Data External Data Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Split / Time-of-Day Freight / Truck Assignment System Calibration Validation General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) X X ILLDM Network X ILLDM TAZs X ARNOLD - All Road Network of Linear Referenced Data X HERE / NAVTEQ X X TIP and RTP lists X NPMRDS - National Performance Management Research Data Set X X X HPMS - Highway Performance Monitoring System X X Traffic Count Data (Daily, Hourly, Classification, adjacent states) X X X X X Other Travel Demand Model Data (nat'l, MPO, UIC, adjacent states) X X X X X X IDOT GIS layers X X X US Census Data (including ACS - American Community Survey) X X X LEHD - Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics X X WP - Woods and Poole Employment X X Illinois Department of Employment Security X X Open source Points of Interest (POI) data X X Freight Analysis Framework X X X QRFM II - Quick Response Freight Manual II X ATRI - Truck GPS Data X X X Location Based Service (LBS) Passive Data X X X X X X NHTS - National Household Travel Survey X CMAP Household Surveys X CTPP - Census Transportation Planning Products X X HERE OD Data X X National Transit Database X X NCHRP 716 X

Inputs Estimation Calibration / Validation

Data Assessment

Assessment Methodology

▪ Various criteria were used, specific to each data source and type ▪ Focused on comprehensiveness, accuracy and national best practice ▪ Rated each data source based on the following rating system

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Rating Symbol

Very Good



Good



Poor



Not Applicable N/A

Rating System Example – TAZ Data Assessment

Data Assessment

Recommendations

▪ Based on the data assessment results, CDM Smith recommended the use

• f data for model development

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Model Component Recommendation

Network HERE network for geography, ARNOLD network for attributes TAZ As a starting point – ILLDM zones for in-state areas, US Census county boundaries for the halo areas, FAF4 zones for freight model Socioeconomic Data 5-Year ACS at Block Group level, Census at Block Level, PEP data; LEHD at Block level for employment; State Data Center and Woods and Poole data for future year; SE data from existing MPO models External Station IDOT traffic count data (MS2 dataset), external data from other models See other recommendations in the “Data Assessment Report”.

Adaptation of Regional Models

Availability of Regional Travel Demand Models

IL Statewide Model and MPO Perspectives

• My MPO already has a TDM.
• We use it extensively in

transportation planning.

• Why would I care for a Statewide

TDM?

MPO Staff

IL Statewide Model and MPO Perspectives ▪ MPOs will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ILSTDM! ▪ ILSTDM will be tailored to support IDOT’s and MPOs’ transportation planning efforts. ▪ Regional Corridor Planning including new highways, high speed rail etc. ▪ Freight Planning ▪ Economic Analysis ▪ MPO Model Support ▪ Emergency Management Planning ▪ CAV Scenario Planning

Task 3.1: Adaptation of Regional Models

▪ Review and Assure Consistency of Network Coverage ▪ The consultant team evaluated existing MPO TDM network. ▪ Evaluation tasks included extent of network coverage. ▪ Whether existing MPO networks can be used in the ILSTDM network or not. ▪ If the MPO network is used, determining appropriate reduction

• f coverage, etc.

▪ Review and Assure Consistency of Network Attributes ▪ The consultant team evaluated existing network attributes for all the MPO models. Typical attributes includes: # of lanes, functional class, speed, capacity, availability of median etc.

Task 3.1: Adaptation of Regional Models

Urbanized Area/MPO Highway Network Source Highway Network Base Year Bi-State Regional Commission (BSRC) MPO Travel Model 2015 Champaign County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC) MPO Travel Model 2015 Danville Area Transportation Study (DATS) HERE Network N/A Decatur Urbanized Area Transportation Study (DUATS) MPO/HERE Network 2010 DeKalb-Sycamore Area Transportation Study (DSATS) MPO Travel Model 2015 Dubuque Metropolitan Area Transportation Study (DMATS) MPO Travel Model 2015 East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWGCOG) MPO Travel Model 2015 Kankakee Area Transportation Study (KATS) HERE Network N/A McLean County Regional Planning Commission (MCRPC) HERE Network N/A Rockford Metropolitan Agency for Planning (RMAP) MPO Travel Model 2016 Southern Illinois Metropolitan Planning Organization (SIMPO) HERE Network N/A Springfield Area Transportation Study (SATS) MPO Travel Model 2015 Stateline Area Transportation Study (SLATS) MPO Travel Model 2016 Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (TCRPC) MPO Travel Model 2015

Task 3.1: Adaptation of Regional Models

▪ Review and Assure Consistency of TAZ Boundaries ▪ The consultant team evaluated existing MPO TDM TAZs. ▪ ILSTDM TAZs in the MPO areas were developed by aggregating existing MPO TAZ boundaries. ▪ Minimum population criteria for the ILSTDM TAZ was 1,000. ▪ ILSTDM TAZ boundaries were checked for natural, political, and man-made barriers.

Network and TAZ Development

▪ Defining Network Coverage Areas ▪ Defining Network and TAZ Attributes ▪ TAZ Boundary Developments ▪ TAZ Base Year Socio-economic Data

Network Attributes

Attribute Description/Values Directionality 1 or -1 for One-way Links 0 for Two-way Links Roadway Functional Class 1- Interstate 2- Freeway or Expressway 3- Other Principal Arterial 4- Minor Arterial 5- Major Collector 6- Minor Collector 7- Local Road or Street 8- Ramps Total Lanes Numeric (Integer) AB_Lanes Numeric (Integer) BA_Lanes Numeric (Integer) Speed Posted Speed Limit Area Type Urban Non Urban Median Type Divided Undivided TWLTL

Network Coverage

Urbanized Area/MPO Miles of Roadways Bi-State Regional Commission (BSRC) 1,041 Champaign County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC) 802 Danville Area Transportation Study (DATS) 534 Decatur Urbanized Area Transportation Study (DUATS) 538 DeKalb-Sycamore Area Transportation Study (DSATS) 511 Dubuque Metropolitan Area Transportation Study (DMATS) 291 East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWGCOG) 1,723 Kankakee Area Transportation Study (KATS) 530 McLean County Regional Planning Commission (MCRPC) 952 Rockford MPO and Stateline Area Transportation Study 1,010 Southern Illinois Metropolitan Planning Organization (SIMPO) 678 Springfield Area Transportation Study (SATS) 785 Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (TCRPC) 1,537 Total 10,932

Review of Speeds

TAZ Attributes – Base Population

County Urbanized Area Recommended Total Population (2017) Existing Total Population from MPO TDM (Base Year) Boone Rockford 53,638 53,654 (2015) Champaign Champaign-Urbana 207,946 201,081 (2015) DeKalb DeKalb-Sycamore 104,473 73,438 (2010) Jo Daviess Dubuque 22,046 11,765 (2015) Peoria Peoria 186,145 185,587 (2013) Rock Island Davenport-Rock Island 146,205 147,546 (2015) Sangamon Springfield 198,134 196,164 (2012)

• St. Clair
• St. Louis

264,433 267,150 (2015) Tazewell Peoria 134,695 134,291 (2013) Winnebago Rockford 287,512 287,599 (2015) Woodford Peoria 38,942 38,825 (2013) Madison

• St. Louis

266,153 265,757 (2015) Monroe

• St. Louis

33,739 34,064 (2015)

TAZ Attributes – Employment Growth

County Urbanized Area Yearly Employment Growth Rate Boone Rockford 1.73% Champaign Champaign-Urbana 1.03% DeKalb DeKalb-Sycamore 1.41% Jackson Southern Illinois 0.23% Jo Daviess Dubuque 1.10% Kankakee Kankakee 1.27% Macon Decatur 0.94% McLean Bloomington-Normal 1.01% Marion Southern Illinois 0.29% Peoria Peoria 0.42% Rock Island Davenport-RockIsland 0.40% Sangamon Springfield 1.13%

• St. Clair
• St. Louis

1.00% Tazewell Peoria 0.10% Vermillion Danville

• 0.27%

Winnebago Rockford 1.08% Woodford Peoria

• 0.20%

Franklin Southern Illinois 1.60% Henry Davenport-RockIsland 1.43% Madison

• St. Louis

1.44% Monroe

• St. Louis

2.40% Williamson Southern Illinois 2.03%

TAZ Detail

East-West Gateway

Model # of TAZ Average Population per TAZ EWGWCOG TDM ILSTDM 962 564 244 2,434

Tri-County (Peoria)

Model # of TAZ Average Population per TAZ Tri County TDM ILSTDM 713 505 214 1,708

CUUATS

Model # of TAZ Average Population per TAZ CUUATS TDM ILSTDM 307 654 70 1,900

Rockford MPO

Model # of TAZ Average Population per TAZ Rockford TDM ILSTDM 518 757 189 2,153

Comparison of ILLDM/MPOs & ILSTDM

Area Total TAZs Average TAZ Size (sq. mi) Average TAZ Population

ILLDM ILSTDM ILLDM ILSTDM ILLDM ILSTDM CMAP* 1,944 1,752 5.6 3.4 5,498 4,984 MPO 3,104 1,252 1.6 7.4 543 1,922 Rural 599 1,362 72.6 30.1 3,562 1,260 Total 5,647 4,366 10.5 12.9 2,569 2,944

Zone Development

TAZ Development

Inside Illinois

▪ TAZ Geography

• Three areas are defined for TAZs inside Illinois

‐ CMAP Area

• Urban areas within the CMAP boundary
• Used 2009 CMAP Model TAZs

‐ MPO Area

‐ Urban areas within other MPO boundaries ‐ Based on other MPO’s TAZs, aggregated and modified

‐ Rural Area

‐ All other areas outside of CMAP and other MPO areas ‐ Based on ILLDM TAZs, disaggregated and modified

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TAZ Development

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ILSTDM TAZ Inside Illinois

Area Total TAZs CMAP Area 1,752 MPO Area 1,252 Rural Area 1,362 Total (Inside Illinois) 4,366

TAZ Development

Inside Illinois

▪ Socioeconomic (SE) Data

• Demographic Data (Population and Household)

‐ Based on 2017 ACS Five Year Estimates ‐ Disaggregate county-level data to TAZ level

• Employment Data

‐ Based on 2015 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data ‐ Used Woods and Poole’s county level annual growth rates between 2015 and 2017 to forecast to 2017 ‐ Aggregate census-block-level data to TAZ level

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Statewide Year 2017 Population 12,854,867 Households 4,818,642 Employment 5,983,959

TAZ Development

Outside Illinois

▪ TAZ Geography

• Halo Area TAZs (total of 378)

‐ 50-mile buffer around Illinois ‐ Based on County boundaries, CMAP TAZs and other MPO TAZs

• National Level TAZs (total of 118)

‐ Outside Halo Area, covering the rest of the US ‐ Based on FAF4 zone boundaries

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TAZ Development

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Halo Area TAZs

CMAP Other MPO

National Level TAZs

TAZ Development

Outside Illinois

▪ Socioeconomic (SE) Data

• Demographic Data (Population and Household)

‐ Based on 2017 ACS Five Year Estimates ‐ Disaggregate/aggregate county-level data to TAZ level

• Employment Data

‐ Based on 2015 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) data ‐ Used Woods and Poole’s county level annual growth rates between 2015 and 2017 to forecast to 2017 ‐ Aggregate census-block-level data to TAZ level

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TAZ ID System

TAZ Area Digits in TAZ ID System 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Inside Illinois (7-digit ID)

1-digit District ID (1-9) 3-digit County FIPS code 3-digit TAZ number

Halo Area (8-digit ID)

2-digit State FIPS code 3-digit County FIPS code 3-digit TAZ number

National Level (8-digit ID)

“99” (fixed 2 digits) “000” (fixed 3 digits) 3-digit FAF4 zone ID

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Established this ID system for ILSTDM TAZs

Network Development

Network Development

Inside Illinois

▪ Network Geography

• Based on HERE street network, supplemented by:

‐ The All Road Network of Linear Referenced Data (ARNOLD) ‐ Illinois Long Distance Passenger and Freight Truck Travel Modeling (ILLDM) Network ‐ Chicago Metro Agency for Planning (CMAP) Network ‐ Other Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) Networks - Lochmueller Group (LG) task

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Network Development

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MPO area network Rural (non-MPO) area network

ILSTDM Network Inside Illinois

Functional Classification Number of Links Centerline Miles

Interstate​ 8,098​ 4,372​ Freeway or Expressway​ 1,374​ 423​ Other Principal Arterial​ 32,958​ 7,161 Minor Arterial​ 41,745​ 10,113 Major Collector​ 56,371​ 15,887​ Local Road or Street​ 7,378​ 2,926​ Ramp​ 6,311​ 1,259 Total​ 154,235​ 42,144​

Network Development

Inside Illinois

▪ Network Attributes

• Developed based on the combination of various data sources

‐ HERE, ARNOLD, ILLDM, CMAP and other MPO networks

• Attributes were also verified by Google Earth imagery
• These are the basic roadway attributes (on next slide):

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Network Development

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Attribute Values / Description

Directionality

1 or -1 for One-way links 0 - Two-way links

Functional Class / Facility Type

1- Interstate 2- Freeway or Expressway 3 - Other Principal Arterial 4 - Minor Arterial 5- Major Collector 6- Minor Collector 7- Local Road or Street 8 – Ramp (All Ramps)

Total Lanes

Numeric Integer Value

AB_LANES

Lanes in A to B Direction – numeric integer value

BA_LANES

Lanes in B to A Direction – numeric integer value

Speed

Posted Speed Limit

Area Type

Urban Not Urban

Median Type

Divided Undivided TWLTL

Network Development

Inside Illinois

▪ Traffic Counts

• Two available data sources

‐ IDOT Highway Shapefile ‐ MS2 Database Shapefile

• After comparison analysis, MS2 was selected as the data source

‐ Manageable size: less than 20k data points on minor arterials or higher ‐ Acceptable coverage on minor arterials or higher ‐ Less redundant AADTs in MS2 file

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Network Development

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Traffic Count Result Summary

Original MS2 Database ILSTDM Model Network Functional Classes** Links with AADT* Links with AADT* Interstate 3,112 1,418 Freeway and Expressway 248 195 Other Principal Arterial 5,309 5,415 Minor Arterial 6,636 5,597 Major Collector 6,153 4090 Minor Collector 844 260 Ramps Included in other functional classes 2,061 TOTAL 22,302 19,036

* Only AADTs over 1,000 and collected in 2016 or later are considered useful for model validation purpose. ** MS2 and ILSTDM network have different Functional Classifications for some links. The geometry (length, shape, etc.) of the links can also be different between the two network, so the number of links would be different.

Network Development

Inside Illinois

▪ Traffic Counts

• Established a unique Station ID system

County Code (FIPS) – Original MS2 Inventory ID – Original MS2 Link ID

060 – 20310-404840 – 194050

• This Station ID system has the following advantages:

‐ Unique – solved the duplicated ID issues from MS2 Dataset ‐ Meaningful – each ID contains meaningful information

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Network Development

Outside Illinois

▪ Network Geography

• Halo Area Network:

‐ 50-mile buffer around Illinois – Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana. ‐ Mainly based on ILLDM network, supplemented by MPO networks.

• National Level Network:

‐ Interstate and major highways outside Halo Areas in US ‐ Based on the FAF4 network (FHWA Freight Analysis Framework)

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Network Development

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CMAP Other MPO

Halo Area Network National Level Network

Network Development

Outside Illinois

▪ Network Attributes

• Developed based on the combination of various data sources

‐ CMAP ‐ HERE ‐ FAF4 ‐ Census Urban Area Boundary

• Same attribute configuration as the in-state network

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Network Development

Outside Illinois

▪ Traffic Counts

• Halo Area Network:

‐ Requested traffic count data (coded in the statewide models) from the neighboring states: Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky and Wisconsin ‐ Upon receiving data from every state (missing Wisconsin), will use the same method to import traffic count data to Halo area

• National Level Network:

‐ Traffic count data is not needed

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Speed-Capacity Development

Speed-Capacity Routine

▪ Speed and capacity coding methodology was developed to code free-flow speed and capacity into the highway network links. ▪ The speed and capacity on a highway link depend on the network attributes. ▪ Conducted literature review of typical practices in other statewide, regional and multi-state models

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Speed-Capacity Routine

Model/Report Method Based on Network Attribute

SHIFT Model Lookup table Functional class and area type South Carolina Statewide Model Lookup table Functional class and area type North Carolina Statewide Model Lookup table Functional class, area type, terrain and median type Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010 Formula Functional class, area type, terrain, lane width, lateral clearance, median type, access point density, percent heavy vehicles and traffic signal information NCHRP 387 HCM based formula Similar to variables required by HCM Simplified Highway Capacity Calculation Method for the Highway Performance Monitoring System HCM based formula Similar to variables required by HCM Kentucky Statewide Model HCM based formula Similar to variables required by HCM CMAP Model Macro Functional class, lane width, posted speed limit, parking restrictions and signal information Tri-County and Champaign County RPC model Lookup table Functional class and area type

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Literature Review

Speed-Capacity Routine

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ILSTDM Methodology (lookup table)

Functional Class Urban Non-Urban Urban Non-Urban

1- Interstate 4 2 1,800 1,700 2- Freeway or Expressway 4 2 1,800 1,800 3 - Other Principal Arterial

• 1
• 4

1,500 1,600 4 - Minor Arterial

• 3
• 3

1,300 1,500 5- Major Collector

• 1
• 2

1,100 1,200 6- Minor Collector

• 1
• 1

400 500 7- Local Road or Street

• 1

500 600 8 – Ramp (All Ramps) 1,300 1,300

Speed adjustment (to posted speed limit) Capacity

Ongoing Work

Future Year Scenario

Future Year Forecast

Overview

▪ Final Forecast Year: 2045 ▪ Interim Forecast Years: 2020, 2025, 2035

Forecasting Tasks

▪ Develop future network ▪ Forecast future socioeconomic data

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Future Year Forecast

Develop Future Network

• 1. Develop Existing Plus Committed (E+C) Project List

▪ For inside Illinois, include only capacity improvement and new road construction projects ▪ For Halo areas, include projects that impact higher class facilities ▪ Review E+C Project list by stakeholders and obtain approval

• 2. Establish a project-based master network

▪ Assign unique IDs to all E+C projects ▪ Code all E+C projects in network ▪ Activate projects based on the year project opens to traffic

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Future Year Forecast

Develop Future Network

Data requested

▪ MPO forecast network data developed by Lockmueller Group ▪ Models in neighboring states for Halo area ▪ IDOT to help identify projects from STIPs , MYPs, LRTPS etc. to be included in E+C for the rural area

Data received

▪ Future year project list and network for interim and forecast years from CMAP ▪ 8 projects from Iowa statewide model network in Halo area

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Future Year Forecast

Forecast Future SE Data

• 1. Establish base year county control totals
• 2. Develop annual growth rates using:

▪ Woods and Poole ▪ CMAP Future year Data ▪ Data from MPO models ▪ Decennial Census and ACS ▪ Illinois Department of Employment Security

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Year W&P Population W&P Employment 2017 12.854M 7.977M 2045 14.240M 10.164M Growth Rate 0.39% 0.98%

Future Year Forecast

Forecast Future SE Data

• 3. Develop future year control totals

▪ Apply annual growth rates to base year control totals

• 4. Disaggregate SE data from county level to TAZ level

▪ Apply the same disaggregation method used for base year SE data

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Freight Demand Model Development

Freight Model Development

Model Components

• 1. Commodity Generation Model

▪ Regression model to generate production and attraction at TAZ level.

• 2. Commodity Distribution Model

▪ Gravity model to distribute commodities between origin and destination.

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Freight Model Development

Model Components

• 3. Mode Split

▪ Fixed lookup table

▪ Modes: Truck, rail, air, water and other ▪ Lookup variables: Distance, availability of mode and movement (inbound,

• utbound, internal and through)
• 4. Development of Truck Trips

▪ Payload factors (tons per truck) by commodities. ▪ Percent empty trucks.

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Freight Model Development

Data used for model development

▪ FAF4.5 data ▪ ILSTDM Socio-economic data ▪ Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey Data (VIUS 2002) ▪ GIS file to locate rail terminals, ports/ferry terminals, airports and

• ther intermodal terminals.

▪ ILSTDM model network

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Freight Model Development

Commodity Grouping

▪ 42 FAF commodities are grouped into 15 commodity groups based on:

▪ Similarities in characteristics of producer and consumer industries. ▪ Significance of a commodity based on its weight or value. ▪ Consistency with other models (UIC model’s commodity grouping) ▪ State’s top commodities identified in Illinois Freight Plan.

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Freight Model Development

Proposed Commodity Group Name SCTG Commodity Code UIC Model Commodity Code Annual Weight (Ktons) Value ($/ton) Annual Value (Million $) 1 Agriculture and farm 1-4 1 263,779 357 94,152 2 Food product 5-9 1 89,876 1,583 142,254 3 Mining product 10-14,31 2, 7 188,282 105 19,720 4 Coal 14 2 74,151 29 2,182 5 Petroleum Products 16-19 3 384,030 667 256,324 6 Chemical Products 20-23 4 82,324 2,189 180,213 7 Miscellaneous Products 24,30,40 12,13 32,809 4,397 144,259 8 Wood Products 25-26 5 19,936 480 9,569 9 Paper Products 27-28 6 23,442 1,609 37,720 10 Metal & Machinary 32-34 8 57,076 3,622 206,727 11 Electronic & Equipment 35, 38 9 9,277 21,883 203,014 12 Motor and Transportation 36-37 10 13,886 8,621 119,713 13 Household and Office Furniture 39 11 3,839 5,787 22,218 14 Waste and scrap 41 14 30,329 296 8,971 15 Mixed and Unknown Freight 43,99 15 25,969 3,908 101,488

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ILSTDM Commodity Group

Freight Model Development

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• 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Proposed Commoditiy Groups for ILSTDM

Annual Weight (Ktons) Annual Value (Million $)

Passive Data Development

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Leveraging Big Data

• General Population

Movement Data

– 5.5M Monthly Active Users ▪ 42% of population – 1M Daily Active Users ▪ 7.6% of population

• Truck GPS Data

– 820k Unique Trucks (US) – 700B annual sightings

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ATRI Dataset >1 billion sightings, ~700,000 trucks

Time period Trucks (raw) Trucks (kept) Pings (raw) February 2018 183,176 151,671 295,534,447 May 2018 178,258 148,135 286,057,818 July 2018 178,171 149,211 305,602,323 October 2018 171,577 142,767 270,425,363 Total 711,182 591,784 1,157,619,951

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ATRI Processing Results - Unexpanded

~1.5 million trips, ~90 million VMT in each time period

Time period Unexpanded trip count Distance (mi) February 2018 1,419,789 87,443,217 May 2018 1,552,876 87,486,371 July 2018 1,452,520 93,530,117 October 2018 1,529,128 91,784,476 Total 5,954,313 360,244,181

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ATRI Processing Results

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Intermediate Stop Filtering

Filtering stops for fuel, food, etc., necessary for understanding actual long-distance OD demand for both passenger and freight flows Geofencing around gas stations / truck stops, etc.

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Intermediate Stop Filtering Results

16.4% of trips have at least one intermediate stop

Time period Unexpanded trip count Trips with 1+ intermediate stop February 2018 1,419,789 243,426 (17.1%) May 2018 1,552,876 237,262 (15.3%) July 2018 1,452,520 254,722 (17.5%) October 2018 1,529,128 241,284 (15.8%) Total 5,954,313 976,694 (16.4%)

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Stop Density Reasonableness Checks

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Circle Interchange Bottleneck – 1 day

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Circle Interchange – OD Patterns Served

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ILSTDM’s Extensible Modular Framework

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Option of Updating Base without Recalibration

Base ODs provide greater accuracy and can be updated without recalibrating demand models in the future

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Future Demand

• Pivot off of Base OD Data
• MPOs – Model OD Growth

– Future E+C trip tables

• Rural – Quick Response

Contacts

www.rsginc.com

SHARIFF ULLAH

SENIOR TRANSPORTATION ENGINEER

Sullah@lochgroup.com 217.721.4143 VINCE BERNARDIN, PHD

DIRECTOR – MOBILITY ANALYTICS AND FORECASTING

Vince.Bernardin@RSGinc.com 802.295.4999

Contacts