The long lines of the investment industry yvind G. Schanke, CEO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The long lines of the investment industry yvind G. Schanke, CEO History of mutual funds 1924 Late 1700 1929 1934 1971 1976 First open- Stock market Origin of Security First index Vanguard end mutual crash Investment Analysis
The long lines of the investment industry
Øyvind G. Schanke, CEO
History of mutual funds
Late 1700 Origin of Investment funds 1924 First open- end mutual fund 1929 Stock market crash 1934 «Security Analysis» 1971 First index fund 1976 Vanguard 1982: The Bloomberg Terminal
The dot-com boom and bust
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 The Nasdaq Composite Index, daily close 2006 Concentrated return drivers – USA and Asia
Nasdaq 100 Weight Return 11.8% 44% 9.3% 30% 9.1% 35% 7.4% 48% 5.9% 56% MSCI Asia APEX 50 Weight Return 11.8% 85% 11.2% 61% 9.6% 108% 9.2% 44% 4.2% 36% Source: SKAGEN and for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Top 5 weight 43.5% Top 5 contribution, % of total 54.4% Top 5 weight 46.0% Top 5 contribution, % of total 58.8% Stock exchange volume
$ 0 $ 20 $ 40 $ 60 $ 80 $ 100 $ 120 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: The World Bank Total value (Trillion USD) Development of high-frequency trading (HFT)
HFT industry revenues from US equities markets 8 $bn 6 $bn 4 $bn 2 $bn 0 $bn 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Tabb Group, Financial Times Investment industry in the 21st century
2002 The Quants 2005 High- frequency trading 2007 Financial crisis 2013 Smart beta Lower transaction fees
Ant Financial – The world’s most valuable fintech company
Yu’e Bao The world's largest mobile and online payments platform The world's largest money- market fund Bitcoin is in classic bubble territory
Source: Financial Times $000 per bitcoin, 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Stealth phase Awareness phase Mania phase Blow off phase Smart money Institutional investors Public ‘New paradigm’ Take-off First sell-off Bear trap Media attention Enthusiasm Greed Delusion Denial Bull trap Fear Capitulation Return to median Despair Bitcoin transaction costs growing
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: blockchain.info, Morgan Stanley Research $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Average transaction cost for Bitcoin Plato Partnership
Significant growth of Turquoise Plato Block Discovery
Source: Turquoise. Turquoise Plato Block Discovery includes volumes >25% LIS Value traded (EUR millions over time) 0 € 4000 € 2015 2016 2017 1000 € 2000 € 3000 € 8000 € 5000 € 6000 € 7000 € The Great Eclipse
1975 1981 1987 Source: bloomberg.com Number of U.S. funds and stocks Stocks 8 000 4 000 2 000 6 000 Coming trends in the industry
2018 and beyond Robo-advice Machine learning and AI Artificial intelligence
No short term super profits
96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 The Nikkei 225
Source: Bloomberg, Twitter.com 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.
Thank you
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