The LUISA platform and applications Claudia BARANZELLI (JRC-IES-H08) - - PDF document

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www.jrc.ec.europa.eu

The LUISA platform and applications

Claudia BARANZELLI (JRC-IES-H08) LUISA team BISO– Progress workshop Ispra, 21st November 2014 Joint Research Centre

Outline of the presentation

• 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform
• 2. Current configuration of LUISA
• 3. Energy-related applications
• 4. On-going and prospective work

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Outline of the presentation

• 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform
• 2. Current configuration of LUISA
• 3. Energy-related applications
• 4. On-going and prospective work

Land use modelling and LUISA

Territorial impact assessments Following the EC guidelines on Impact Assessment procedure, JRC initiated land use modelling activities, with the aim of developing a platform capable of performing more integrated assessments, so to fulfil the emerging policy needs of different services of the EC.

LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability impact Assessment platform)

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LUISA

• It is more than one stand-alone model. It is a platform of inter-linked data,

processes, models and indicators;

• Accommodates multi-policy scenarios. E.g.: regional policy + CAP + transport +

environment + …);

• It is linked to several upstream models in order to capture macro sector dynamics

and policies (emissions, energy, economy, demography, agriculture/forestry, water, etc.);

• Its core is a land allocation model which simulates future land use changes, given

a set of scenario specifications;

• Based on state-of-the-art land use modelling techniques.

Land use modelling and LUISA

The latest developments of LUISA

• LUISA (formerly known as LUMP) has been changing substantially, in order to meet

ever more demanding policy requirements and better represent complex system dynamics.

• land functions: LUISA simulates future land-use changes, and land functions

related to the resulting land-use patterns are then inferred and described by spatially explicit indicators. Applications Integrated Coastal Zone Management Common Agricultural Policy EU Water Blueprint Regional Policy Shale gas Resource Efficiency Roadmap

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Outline of the presentation

• 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform
• 2. Current configuration of LUISA
• 3. Energy-related applications
• 4. On-going and prospective work

Baseline Scenario – Scope and operational definition

Baseline scenario

A Baseline Scenario provides the basis for comparing policy options:

• providing a benchmark function, for ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of policies.
• contributing to the assessment of policy impacts with possible overlaps or conflicts between

sectoral developments and sectoral policies;

Operational definition presented to the Secretary-General of the European Commission in May 2014:

• Common definition among all EC services that would be undertaking an Impact Assessment.
• Includes the full scope of relevant policies assuring their coherence;
• Requires aligning and harmonizing input data and scenarios.
• Based upon existing scenarios (e.g.: Energy-Climate Reference Scenario 2013).

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LUISA – Main technical characteristics

• Geographical coverage:

EU28

• Spatial resolution: 100m
• Thematic resolution: 9 main classes (+ agricultural breakdown + ‘abandoned’ land uses)
• Temporal resolution: yearly
• Time span: up to 2050
• Base map: refined CORINE Land Cover data

100 m

LUISA – Main technical characteristics

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Macro-economic Models

LUISA – Components and Workflow

Demand settings

Allocation module

Current land-use Sector-specific policies Other modelling settings

Demand module

Land requirements Allocation procedures Policy-related suitabilities Location-specific suitabilities

Impact analysis

Visualisation tool Indicators algorithms Policy-related parameters Other parameters Territorial indicators

Urban scale

Territorial indicators

Continental, national and regional scale Projected population map Projected land use change

Validation tools Urban indicators Projected accessibility map Policy request Visualisation tool Dissemination

Indicators for characterising European regions in terms of efficiency in resources use and for measuring progress towards defined goals.

Land Function

Indicators

Work Leisure Land and water based products Provision of Housing and Transport Regulation services Supporting ecosystems, biodiversity

LUISA Indicators - Overview

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LUISA Indicators – Regional characterisation Outline of the presentation

• 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform
• 2. Current configuration of LUISA
• 3. Energy-related applications
• 4. On-going and prospective work

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Energy-related applications

Availability of biomass

Biomass availability mapping: forest, primary agricultural residues, dedicated energy crops. Inclusion of technical and environmental criteria, and competing uses.

Cost supply curves for forest-based wood for energy

Cost of harvesting the biomass resource for energy uses (engineering costing approach).

Logistics

Local optimisation of biomass collection and post-harvesting.

Shale gas extraction activities

Scenario-based allocation of shale gas well pads; assessment of potential land and water use conflicts.

Solar energy

Potentially suitable location for the installation of photovoltaic systems across the European territory.

Coal mine methane

Scenario analysis.

Biomass resources and possible uses

From the local availability of biomass resources, to a model to optimise biomass storage and biomass processing plants allocation, based on minimal transport and storage costs, order of business establishment, and location preferences.

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Allocation and impact of shale gas extraction activities

Allocation of well pads It is based on a suitability index (dynamic in time) that reproduces the economic profitability of conducting extraction activities at a specific location:

• Geological parameters
• Availability of resources
• Availability of infrastructures
• Proximity to sensitive targets

Alternative Scenarios

• Technological parameters (rate of development, well density and

land requirements, water consumption, water recycling rate);

• Legislative options (current and restrictive policy provisions)

Allocation and impact of shale gas extraction activities

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Outline of the presentation

• 1. Land use modelling with the LUISA platform
• 2. Current configuration of LUISA
• 3. Energy-related applications
• 4. On-going and prospective work

On-going and planned activities

Technical improvements and policy updates The platform is constantly updated, also in order to ensure consistency with the most up-to-date policy provisions at European level. Validation activities Population allocation, land use modelling, regional land use demand, cross-model comparisons (BBSR, University of Bonn, LUC4C Project), transport network diffusion. Exploratory research EREBILAND Project

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EREBILAND – European Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape

Aim Supporting innovative efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. LUISA, JRC-EU-TIMES, RHOMOLO deployed for assessing the efficiency of measures

• n energy production and sectoral final consumption, and related regional

development strategies. Based on the granular territorial disaggregation of information, and the development

• f optimization scenarios at regional scale based on the concept of dynamic land

functions. PRODUCT : Regional European Energy Landscape map (NUTS-2)

Thank you!

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