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The meaning of robustness for flood risk management Marjolein Mens, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The meaning of robustness for flood risk management Marjolein Mens, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The meaning of robustness for flood risk management Marjolein Mens, Frans Klijn & Karin de Bruijn Deltares, the Netherlands Common approach flood risk = flood probability x consequences land use map potential damage map damage functions
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Common approach
Flood risk = P x C the Netherlands: Climate change P
- prevention
Economic development C
- prevention
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Robustness framework
In view of climate change: “decrease vulnerability” “increase resilience” “land use planning” Robustness = ability to remain functioning during disturbances
- 2. limit
damage and casualties
- 3. recover
quickly 1.withstand floods
robust flood risk system
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Flood risk system
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Flood risk system
Westerschelde estuary
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Hazard map
(De Bruijn et al 2008)
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Land use map
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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 3,1 3,6 4,1 4,6 5,1 5,6 6,1 6,6 water level at Vlissingen (m+MSL) economic consequence (Meuro)
Response graph
response recovery resistance
robust flood risk system
resistance response & recovery
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There is more to response
response recovery resistance
robust flood risk system
Asset damage Modularity Redundancy Functionality
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Modularity Westerschelde
Physically: High degree of modularity - ancient polder dikes.
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Flood depth map
(De Bruijn et al 2008)
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Modularity Westerschelde
Economically very low: High economic connection with other areas increases indirect damage
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Redundancy
Components with same function respond differently to floods:
- Alternative supply of goods and services
- Different transport routes in and out of the flood-prone area
- Crisis centres in different locations
- Hospitals in different locations
hospitals [www.risicokaart.nl]
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Functionality
Critical infrastructure:
- Electricity supply
- Drinking water supply
- Evacuation routes
[www.risicokaart.nl]
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Recovery capacity
Aid from other areas Debts/ savings/ insurance Income level Economic capital Degree of health Level of education Human capital Strength of social
- rganization
Access to services Equity Trust in government Social capital Factors influencing the recovery capacity Category
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Robustness mechanisms
Elevated highways, Limit damage to critical infrastructure Functionality Compartmentalization Limit spread of disturbance Modularity Health, education, savings, insurance, etc. Enable quick recovery Recovery capacity Multiple transportation routes Components with same function respond differently to disturbance Redundancy Prevent inundation of socio-economic subsystem (dikes) Prevent undesired system response Resistance Example flood risk Philosophy Mechanism limit response
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Summarizing
Robustness view:
- Resistance, response and recovery
- Not only how much damage, but also what causes it
- Physical, social and economic aspects
Robustness mechanisms
- provide inspiration for flood risk reduction measures
Future work:
- Indicators for robustness
- Compare different system configurations
- Application for drought risk management
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