The Proper Use of Ignorance Training Intelligence Analysts Martin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the proper use of ignorance
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The Proper Use of Ignorance Training Intelligence Analysts Martin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 22, 2023 199 likes •516 views

The Proper Use of Ignorance Training Intelligence Analysts Martin Hill Int Analyst / PhD Student / Information Systems Architect Knowledge Strength Context Military - British Army Reservist: Cavalry 1999-2003 (+Kuwait 2001, Iraq 2003)

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Knowledge Strength

The Proper Use of Ignorance

Training Intelligence Analysts

Martin Hill

Int Analyst / PhD Student / Information Systems Architect

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Knowledge Strength

Context

Military - British Army Reservist:

  • Cavalry 1999-2003 (+Kuwait 2001, Iraq 2003)
  • Infantry Company Signaller 2003-2006
  • Combat Engineer 2007-2010
  • Intelligence Analyst 2010-

Academic - PhD ‘Student’ at Defence Academy UK:

  • Distributing Knowledge
  • Characteristics

Commercial - Information Systems Architect:

  • Big Data Analytics & Fusion
  • Robotics and automation
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Knowledge Strength

Analyse

Facts

Inform

Estimate

Observe

Decision

Data Information Intelligence

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Knowledge Strength

Boyd’s OODA Loop

Observe Orientate Decide Act

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Knowledge Strength

‘Orientate’ - Intelligence Cycle

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Knowledge Strength

Estimate Analyse Facts Reports Rubbish Poorly described Facts Decisions Results / Outcomes Review Other Analysis

Method Stores

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Knowledge Strength

Limits to Attention

“Where information is plentiful, attention becomes a scarce resource” (paraphrasing Simon 1971) “…even as the [HP] web introduced more information, it did nothing to expand our limited attention capacity“ (Sieloff 1999) “No commander is less fortunate than he who operates with a telegraph wire stuck in his back” (Moltke via Creveld 1985)

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Knowledge Strength

Limits to Attention

Ask not only what consumes information, but also what information consumes. Amongst other things information consumes the attention of the recipients; if it doesn't, it is not informing them

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Knowledge Strength

Crayoning Over Maps:

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Knowledge Strength

Crayoning Over Maps

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Knowledge Strength

Hatching the Ardennes gives you …

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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

Simple Knowledge Scope

Known Knowns / Explicit knowledge The things we know. Unknown Knowns? / Tacit Knowledge Things we know so well we no longer notice them; deep expertise, hidden true assumptions Known Unknowns / Explicit Ignorance Things we know we do not know Unknown Unknowns / Tacit Ignorance? The things we do not even realise we do not know; hidden false assumptions

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Knowledge Strength

Five levels of ignorance

0: Lack of Ignorance 1: Lack of Knowledge 2: Lack of Awareness 3: Lack of Process. 4: Meta Ignorance.

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Knowledge Strength

Distance Cost - Ignorance to Knowledge

  • Type A - Collected and immediately available
  • Type B - Not yet collected, but could spend resources to collect
  • Type C - Not collectable (not knowable)
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Knowledge Strength

Ignorance Depth

  • Not ignorant: Knowing.
  • Expert Self-Ignorance: Not realising what is known (tacit

knowledge).

  • Irrevocable Ignorance Not able to know.
  • Simple ignorance: Knowing what is not known and know how to

answer it.

  • Investigatable Ignorance: Not knowing what is not known but have

exploratory methods to discover the questions.

  • Stumped ignorance: Not knowing what is not known and not

knowing how to know.

  • Ignorant Ignorance: Not realising that one is ignorant
  • Patchy Ignorance: Some collaborators are ignorant
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Knowledge Strength

Ignorance Flavours

  • Ignorant of Information
  • Ignorant of Theory
  • Paradigm shifts – ignorant of

pre-theory me

  • Usefully Ignorant Expert
  • Bright but naïve
  • Ignorant of the future
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Knowledge Strength

Ignorance Motivations

  • Avoid overload
  • Mission Command
  • Security & Secrecy
  • Knowledge is Power: Status & Reputation
  • Exposing expertise is risky
  • Social/Tribal Filters
  • Belonging, noticing and sharing
  • Scaffolding: Interim Partial Ignorance
  • Social ‘pinkness’ in peacekeeping
  • Cyber security ‘joint’ to army ops
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Knowledge Strength

Training

  • Theory
  • Military Simulations
  • Generic
  • Realistic
  • Combined
  • Non-military exercises
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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

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Knowledge Strength

Challenges

  • Not enough time!
  • Rewiring the Brain is hard
  • Learning to fail – in public
  • Intractable paradigm shifts
  • Cyber, Info Ops, Peacekeeping
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Knowledge Strength

  • Ignorant
  • Looked but found

nothing

  • Looked thoroughly

and nothing there

Emptiness, Absence & Ignorance

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Knowledge Strength

Confirmation Bias builds evidence

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Knowledge Strength

Evidence vs Emptiness: Evidence of Lack

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Knowledge Strength

Evidence vs Lack of Evidence

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Knowledge Strength