The Renewable Energy Resources of Iceland and Their Extended Future - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Renewable Energy Resources of Iceland and Their Extended Future Utilization

by Egill Benedikt Hreinsson Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Iceland, Hjardarhagi 6, Reykjavik, (Iceland) Email: egill@hi.is

The 44th International Universities’ Power Engineering Conference, September, 1-4, 2009, Glasgow, Scotland

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Presentation overview

• Introduction
• Iceland: Renewable energy resources
• Extended utilization – Examples, scenarios
• Discussion and conclusion

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Introduction (1)

• Large reserves of renewable energy resources

–Hydro / geothermal –Deep drilling and superheated geothermal steam –Oil Dragon area (Non-renewable)

• Future utilization?

–Electrification of the transport sector –Export by HVDC cable –New Aluminium –IT servers and other industry

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Introduction (2)

• Official energy demand forecasts

–Electricity (hydro / geothermal) –Geothermal heat (non-electric) –Oil and fossil fuel use (transport sector and other

uses)

• Scenarios with additional extensive utilisation

–Match or link the above basic demand forecasts with

future extended energy use scenarios

• How extensive burden will such scenarios be
• n the energy resources?

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Electricity demand forecasts

• Available from 1976 and presently show forecasts to

2030

• Shows already negotiated Energy Intensive Industry

(EII, aluminum, etc. as of 2008)

• Electrical energy demand increase is projected from 12

(2007) to 19 TWh/yr (2030). Mostly EII - breakdown in 2030 is approximately:

–

13 TWh/yr for EII

–

5 TWh/yr for residential and small industry

– ~ 1 TWh/yr in losses –

19 TWh/yr TOTAL

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ELECTRICITY FORECAST FOR GENERAL USAGE AND ENERGY INTENSIVE INDUSTRY

Firm energy

• ther than

EII Year Secondary energy

• ther than

EII Energy Intensive Industry EII Trans- mission losses Total

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ICELAND: GEOTHERMAL ENERGY FORECAST

See the legend

Annual

Year (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

PJ/yr GWh/yr Growth (7)

2001 16.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 21.5 5970.6 2005 16.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.7 1.0 23.0 6387.1 1.70% 2010 18.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.0 1.7 25.7 7136.9 2.24% 2015 19.7 1.4 1.9 0.6 2.1 1.8 27.5 7636.8 1.36% 2020 21.0 1.5 2.1 0.6 2.5 1.8 29.5 8192.2 1.41% 2025 22.0 1.6 2.3 0.6 2.8 1.9 31.2 8664.2 1.13% 2030 22.8 1.7 2.4 0.6 3.1 1.9 32.5 9025.3 0.82%

Legend: 1 PJ=1/3.6 TWh=277 GWh (1) Space heating (2) Swimming pools (3) Snow melting (4) Horticulture (5) Fish farming (6) Industry etc (7) Annual growth in the prevous 4-5 year period

Total

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ICELAND: OIL USAGE AND FORECAST 1993-2050

Year Domestic useage International useage TOTAL Losses TOTAL oil Import Residential usage Fishing fleet (domestic) Industry Land Vehicles Air transport Ships; vessels Services Energy intensive Fishing fleet (Int'l) Air transport (Int'l) Ships/ vessels (Int'l) TOTAL Annual increase (%)

1993 563 93 655 11 666 12 244 69 210 8 19 1 62 31 655 2000 563 198 762 13 774 8 227 63 252 9 4 1 52 129 17 762

• 0,1%

2005 577 169 746 13 758 4 198 45 308 8 7 6 35 134 1 746

• 3,6%

2010 558 224 781 13 795 2 141 28 355 9 16 1 5 62 157 5 781 0,6% 2015 560 258 818 14 832 2 144 26 358 9 16 1 5 61 192 5 818 0,8% 2020 534 291 824 14 838 1 170 26 306 9 15 1 5 60 226 5 824

• 1,4%

2025 498 324 821 13 835 1 196 28 241 10 15 1 5 60 258 6 821

• 0,1%

2030 512 357 869 14 883 1 197 28 257 10 15 1 5 60 291 6 869 1,1% 2035 520 387 907 15 922 1 189 26 273 11 15 1 4 60 321 6 907 0,9% 2040 507 413 921 15 936 1 178 24 274 11 15 1 4 60 347 6 921 0,3% 2045 476 432 907 15 922 1 160 22 262 11 15 1 4 60 365 7 907

• 0,3%

2050 422 436 858 14 871 1 135 20 236 11 15 1 4 60 369 7 858

• 1,1%

Summary Breakdown

• Land

vehicles are a large part

• f total the

imported

• il/gas
• Figures are

shown in thousand metric tonnes per year.

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TABLE IV SUMMARY OF ENERGY PROJECTED USAGE 2000-2050

Geo- Electric thermal Energy Year energy energy in oil TOTAL 2000 7.7 6.0 8.9 22.5 2005 8.7 6.4 8.7 23.7 2010 17.4 7.1 9.1 33.6 2015 17.8 7.6 9.5 35.0 2020 18.3 8.2 9.6 36.1 2025 18.8 8.7 9.6 37.0 2030 19.3 9.0 10.1 38.4 2035 20.0 9.5 10.5 40.0 2040 20.5 10.0 10.7 41.2 2045 21.0 10.5 10.6 42.1 2050 21.5 11.0 10.0 42.5 (TWh/year)

• Assumptions:
• 1 thousand tonnes of
• il= 42 TJ

=42/3.6=11.6 GWh

• 2000: 762.000 t of oil

equals 8.9 TWh/yr

• 2050: 858.000 t of oil

equals 10.0 TWh/yr

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SUMMARY OF PROJECTED ENERGY FRACTIONAL USE 2000-2050

Geo- Electric thermal Energy Year energy energy in oil TOTAL 2000 34% 27% 39% 100% 2005 37% 27% 37% 100% 2010 52% 21% 27% 100% 2015 51% 22% 27% 100% 2020 51% 23% 27% 100% 2025 51% 23% 26% 100% 2030 50% 23% 26% 100% 2035 50% 24% 26% 100% 2040 50% 24% 26% 100% 2045 50% 25% 25% 100% 2050 51% 26% 23% 100% (%)

• Oil’s importance

will be reduced somewhat, i.e. from about 37%

• f the total share

in 2005 to about 23% in 2050.

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Scenarios

• Scenario 1: Medium transport electrification

– 50% of the land vehicles replaced by electric transportation

by 2035 with indigenous renewable energy

• Scenario 2: Heavy transport electrification

– 90% of the land vehicles replaced by electric transportation

by 2035 indigenous renewable energy.

• Scenario 3: Heavy transport electrification plus

extensive export/new load

– In addition we assume new load (e.g. HVDC cable export)

from 2020 of 100MW (0.8 TWh/yr), from 2025 of additional 500MW (4 TWh/yr) and from 2035 an additional 700 MW (5.6 TWh/yr). Total of 1300 MW

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SCENARIO 1: MEDIUM TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2050

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Added Geo- Oil

New

Re- % util-

50%

• th. based

electr.

sourc- ized Year

• f (5)

load TOTAL es (

X)

TWh/yr (%) (%)

2000 7.7

8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33%

2005 8.7

6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32%

2010 17.4

0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44%

2015 17.8

0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45%

2020 18.3

0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.0 35.7 77.1 46%

2025 18.8

0.4 8.7 9.6 30% -0.8 0.0 36.6 77.4 47%

2030 19.3

0.6 9.0 10.1 40% -1.2 0.0 37.8 77.9 49%

2035 20.0

0.8 9.5 10.5 50% -1.6 0.0 39.3 78.5 50%

2040 20.5

1.0 10.0 10.7 60% -1.9 0.0 40.3 78.8 51%

2045 21.0

1.1 10.5 10.6 70% -2.1 0.0 41.0 78.9 52%

2050 21.5

1.1 11.0 10.0 80% -2.2 0.0 41.4 78.8 53%

(

X): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr)

and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] Deducted energy-Land vehicles

Total: col (1)... to... (6) TWh/yr TWh/yr energy

Example shows in 2035 that 50% of the demand for land vehicles is 1.6 TWh/yr (“energy contents”) Only 0.8 TWh is needed for the corresponding electric vehicles due to greater

• efficiency. The total

demand is then 39.3 TWh/yr which is about 50% of the resources

• f 78.5 TWh/yr

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SCENARIO 2: HEAVY TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION 2000-2050

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Added Geo- Oil

New

Re- % util-

50%

• th. based

electr.

sourc- ized Year

• f (5)

load TOTAL es (

X)

TWh/yr (%) (%)

2000 7.7

8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33%

2005 8.7

6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32%

2010 17.4

0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44%

2015 17.8

0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45%

2020 18.3

0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.0 35.7 77.1 46%

2025 18.8

0.7 8.7 9.6 50% -1.4 0.0 36.3 76.8 47%

2030 19.3

1.2 9.0 10.1 80% -2.4 0.0 37.2 76.7 49%

2035 20.0

1.4 9.5 10.5 90% -2.9 0.0 38.6 77.2 50%

2040 20.5

1.4 10.0 10.7 90% -2.9 0.0 39.8 77.8 51%

2045 21.0

1.4 10.5 10.6 90% -2.7 0.0 40.7 78.3 52%

2050 21.5

1.2 11.0 10.0 90% -2.5 0.0 41.2 78.5 53%

(

X): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr)

and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] Deducted energy-Land vehicles

Total: cols. (1)... to... (6) TWh/yr TWh/yr energy

Similar results for scenario 2 in 2035: This example shows now that 90% of the demand for land vehicles is 2.9 TWh/yr (“energy contents”) and the oil import is reduced by this amount Only 1.4 TWh/yr for electric vehicles due to greater efficiency. The total demand is then 38.6 TWh/yr which is still about 50% of the resources of 77.2 TWh/yr

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SCENARIO 3 .HEAVY TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION PLUS EXTENSIVE EXPORT/NEW LOAD 2000-2050

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Added Geo- Oil

New

Re- % util-

50%

• th. based

electr.

sourc- ized Year

• f (5)

load TOTAL es (

X)

TWh/yr (%) (%)

2000 7.7

8.9 8.9 25.4 77.7 33%

2005 8.7

6.4 8.7 23.7 75.1 32%

2010 17.4

0.0 7.1 9.1 2% -0.1 0.0 33.6 76.1 44%

2015 17.8

0.1 7.6 9.5 5% -0.2 0.0 34.9 76.9 45%

2020 18.3

0.4 8.2 9.6 20% -0.7 0.8 36.5 77.1 47%

2025 18.8

0.7 8.7 9.6 50% -1.4 4.8 41.1 76.8 54%

2030 19.3

1.2 9.0 10.1 80% -2.4 4.8 42.0 76.7 55%

2035 20.0

1.4 9.5 10.5 90% -2.9 10.4 49.0 77.2 64%

2040 20.5

1.4 10.0 10.7 90% -2.9 10.4 50.2 77.8 64%

2045 21.0

1.4 10.5 10.6 90% -2.7 10.4 51.1 78.3 65%

2050 21.5

1.2 11.0 10.0 90% -2.5 10.4 51.6 78.5 66%

(

X): This column adds the electric resources (60 TWh/yr)

and other use, i.e. [Col. (3)+(4)+(5)] Deducted energy-Land vehicles

Total: cols. (1)... to... (6) TWh/yr TWh/yr energy

Similar results for scenario 3 in 2035 but with added 1300 MW

• f extended demand,

the figures have changed somewhat

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Discussions and conclusions

• The paper shows how the extended, more sustainable

utilization of the renewable electric resources, with increased land transport, should not be an extensive burden, even with massive new load.

• This is in a nutshell, the potential benefit of the

emission free renewable electricity resources!

• For instance, (Scenario 3) electrifying 90% of vehicles

and adding 1300 MW new load amounts to only about 66% of the resource limit as set forth in Table VIII, the last column, in 2050.

• However, there is still considerable uncertainty on

the size of the resources (60 TWh/yr), especially geothermal.

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Thank you!