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Trends in the Well-Being of the Aged and Their Prospects through 2030 Gary Burtless T HE B ROOKINGS I NSTITUTION Conference on Medicare at 50 June 5, 2015 Percent of Americans with Income below Official Poverty Line, by Age, 1959-2013

SLIDE 1

Trends in the Well-Being of the Aged and Their Prospects through 2030

Gary Burtless

THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION Conference on “Medicare at 50” June 5, 2015

SLIDE 2

Percent of Americans with Income below Official Poverty Line, by Age, 1959-2013

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Year Percent of persons with income below official poverty line

Under age 18 Age 18-64 Age 65+

Age group -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

SLIDE 3

Percent change in real income at 10th and 50th income percentiles, by age group, 1979-2012

5 21 42 36 29 39 32

10 20 30 40 50

47-49 50-52 53-55 56-58 59-61 62-64 65-67 68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79 80+ 10th percentile in age group 9 9 10 10 18 27 50 53 56 44 50 47

20 40 60

47-49 50-52 53-55 56-58 59-61 62-64 65-67 68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79 80+ 50th percentile in age group Source: Author’s calculations of household-size-adjusted income using March Current Population Survey files.

SLIDE 4

Percent change in real income at 50th and 90th income percentiles, by age group, 1979-2012

9 9 10 10 18 27 50 53 56 44 50 47

20 40 60

47-49 50-52 53-55 56-58 59-61 62-64 65-67 68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79 80+ 50th percentile in age group

36 36 32 37 36 37 61 75 75 44 45 58

20 40 60 80

47-49 50-52 53-55 56-58 59-61 62-64 65-67 68-70 71-73 74-76 77-79 80+ 90th percentile in age group Source: Author’s calculations of household-size-adjusted income using March Current Population Survey files.

SLIDE 5

Income Ratio of Old to Young by Position in Aged Family and Nonaged Family Income Distribution, 1979-2012

Source: Author’s calculations using March Current Population Survey files.

0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

20 40 60 80 100

Percentile of size-adjusted income distribution

Income ratio of aged families compared with nonaged families at indicated position in the income distribution

1979

At 40th percentile,

avg. income of
lder families is

67% of avg.

income of families headed by younger person

SLIDE 6

Income Ratio of Old to Young by Position in Aged Family and Nonaged Family Income Distribution, 1979-2012

Source: Author’s calculations using March Current Population Survey files.

0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

20 40 60 80 100

Percentile of size-adjusted income distribution

Income ratio of aged families compared with nonaged families at indicated position in the income distribution

1988 1979

SLIDE 7

Income Ratio of Old to Young by Position in Aged Family and Nonaged Family Income Distribution, 1979-2012

Source: Author’s calculations using March Current Population Survey files.

0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

20 40 60 80 100

Percentile of size-adjusted income distribution

Income ratio of aged families compared with nonaged families at indicated position in the income distribution

2000 1988 1979

SLIDE 8

Income Ratio of Old to Young by Position in Aged Family and Nonaged Family Income Distribution, 1979-2012

Source: Author’s calculations using March Current Population Survey files.

0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

20 40 60 80 100

Percentile of size-adjusted income distribution

Income ratio of aged families compared with nonaged families at indicated position in the income distribution

2012 2000 1988 1979

SLIDE 9

Age Profile of Annual Earned Income of U.S. Adults (Including Those with No Earnings), 1985 and 2010

20 40 60 80 100 120 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

Age group

Earnings as percent of average earned income of persons 35-54 years old

(Both sexes, including nonearners)

1985 2010

Source: Author’s calculations using public-use Current Population Survey files.