Turkish Economy: Rebalancing and Transforming Ministry of Treasury - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Turkish Economy: Rebalancing and Transforming Ministry of Treasury - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Turkish Economy: Rebalancing and Transforming Ministry of Treasury and Finance February 2019 1 Disclaimer THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES IT IS SOLELY FOR USE AT THIS ROADSHOW


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Ministry of Treasury and Finance February 2019

Turkish Economy: Rebalancing and Transforming

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Disclaimer

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THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES IT IS SOLELY FOR USE AT THIS ROADSHOW PRESENTATION AND IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. BY ATTENDING THE PRESENTATION OR BY READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS: THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY HAZINE MÜSTESARLIGI VARLIK KIRALAMA ANONIM SIRKETI (THE "ISSUER") AND IS CONFIDENTIAL AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO SUBSCRIBE FOR, UNDERWRITE OR OTHERWISE ACQUIRE, OR A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING, ANY SECURITIES OF THE ISSUER NOR SHOULD IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH (I) ANY CONTRACT TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES OF THE ISSUER, OR (II) ANY OTHER CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. 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4,7 5,7 1924-2002 2003-2017

Strong Growth Performance

GDP growth (avg., %) 3x increase in per capita income Significant improvement in poverty and income distribution Systemically important economy with G-20 membership

Source: TURKSTAT, Strategy and Budget Directorate, MTF calculations 3

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Strong Employment Generation

* October 2018 Seasonally Adjusted Source: TURKSTAT

18,9 28,2 28,9 2002 2017 2018*

Total Employment (million people)

10 million new jobs 10.3 pps increase in female labor force participation Diversity initiatives for women, youth and disabled

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36 157 168 2002 2017 2018

Export Supports Growth

Merchandise Exports (billion $)

Source: TURKSTAT 5

More than 4x increase in exports # of countries with an export of more than $1 billion surged from 8 to 39 # of products with an export of more than $1 billion increased from 9 to 33

In 2018, export growth exceeded import growth with significant increase in the second half

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As of Q3 2018 Source: BRSA, TURKSTAT

59 105 118 2002 2017 2018*

Strong Banking Sector

Asset Size of Banking Sector (% of GDP)

Significant increase in asset size of banking sector NPL ratio is 3.7% as of Nov. 2018 CAR is 17.3%, above the legal and target ratios Banking sector has no open FX position.

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4,3 2,0 2,2 1,8 1 2 3 4 5 EMs OECD AMs TURKEY

Robust Public Finances

Source: IMF, OECD, Directory of Strategy and Budget, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

(General government deficit, % of GDP, 2017) Maastricht Criteria: 3%

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111,5 103,4 48,6 28,3 20 40 60 80 100 120 OECD AMs EMs TURKEY (Gross public debt, % of GDP, 2017) Maastricht Criteria: 60%

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20 40 60 80 100 Korea Lebanon Hong Kong Thailand Malaysia Singapore China Chile Israel Poland

  • S. Africa

Czech Rep. Brazil Colombia UAE Hungary TURKEY Indonesia Russia Mexico Philippines

  • S. Arabia

India Argentina Kenya Egypt Ukraine Nigeria Pakistan

Indebtedness

50 100 150 200 250 Hong Kong China Singapore Lebanon Korea Chile UAE TURKEY Israel Malaysia Hungary Philippines Czech Rep. Thailand Russia Poland India

  • S. Arabia

Brazil

  • S. Africa

Colombia Ukraine Mexico Egypt Kenya Indonesia Ghana Argentina Pakistan Nigeria 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Lebanon Singapore Egypt Brazil Argentina Hungary Pakistan Ukraine India Israel Ghana

  • S. Africa

Kenya Malaysia Poland Colombia China Hong Kong Philippines Korea Czech Rep. Mexico Thailand TURKEY Indonesia Chile Nigeria

  • S. Arabia

UAE Russia 50 100 150 200 Singapore Hong Kong Korea Chile UAE China Thailand Brazil Czech Rep. Malaysia TURKEY Poland

  • S. Africa

Hungary Mexico Argentina Ukraine Russia Philippines Israel Indonesia Lebanon Egypt Colombia India

  • S. Arabia

Nigeria Ghana Kenya Pakistan

8

EM-30 Average: 37.5% (% of GDP, 2018Q3)

Households

(% of GDP, 2018Q3)

Non-financial Corporations

EM-30 Average: 93.6% (% of GDP, 2018Q3) EM-30 Average: 49.3%

Government

(% of GDP, 2018Q3) EM-30 Average: 33.6%

Financial Corporations Source: IIF

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(*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 Inflation Target Source: TURKSTAT

29,8 7,4 11,9 20,3 15,9 2002 2013 2017 2018 2019*

Our Priority is Combatting Inflation

CPI (end of year, % change)

Significant improvement in inflation since 2002 Rise due to exchange rate, food and energy prices in recent period

9

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  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Eyl.07 Şub.08 Tem.08 Ara.08 May.09 Eki.09 Mar.10 Agu-10 Oca.11 Haz.11 Kas.11 Nis.12 Eyl.12 Şub.13 Tem.13 Ara.13 May.14 Eki.14 Mar.15 Ağu.15 Oca.16 Haz.16 Kas.16 Nis.17 Eyl.17 Şub.18 Tem.18 Ara.18 Food Energy Goods excluding energy and food

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Oca.03 Mar.04 May.05 Tem.06 Eyl.07 Kas.08 Oca.10 Mar.11 May.12 Tem.13 Eyl.14 Kas.15 Oca.17 Mar.18 May.19 Tem.20

12 months 24 months

Inflation: Drivers and Expectations

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Key Drivers of Inflation Inflation Expectations*

* CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of January 2019. CBRT’s Survey of Expectations has been released once a month since January 2013 Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT

Year End Target

Inflation Expectations (January 2019) End year 16.45 12 months 15.91 24 months 12.00

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6,5 5,5 4,7 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2011-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4*

Current Account Deficit

* Estimate Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT

(12 month rolling, % of GDP)

Current account deficit increased due to strong domestic demand and high commodity prices Strong exports and tourism in conjunction with rebalancing will diminish current account deficit Rebalancing started with consecutive current account surpluses in H2-18

11

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New Economy Program

Balance-Discipline-Transformation 2019-2021

REPUBLIC OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF TREASURY AND FINANCE

12

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New Economy Program (NEP, 2019-21) Balance-Discipline-Transformation

Economic Balancing between 2018-2020 Fiscal Discipline accompanying economic balancing Transformation in manufacturing & exports with a ‘value-add’ perspective

3,8 2,3 3,5 5,0 2018* 2019 2020 2021

GDP Growth (%)

13 (*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 GDP Growth Realization Estimate

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11,3 12,1 11,9 10,8 2018* 2019 2020 2021

NEP Targets More Than 2 Million New Jobs Created

Severance pay reform Flexible employment in public sector Reviewed and redesigned employment incentives Reducing informal employment Enhancing vocational training program

Unemployment Rate (%)

14 (*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 Unemployment Rate Realization Estimate

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Combating Inflation

Tight Monetary Policy Strong Fiscal Discipline Financial Stability and Development Committee (FİKKO) Product Monitoring Mechanism and National Agricultural Project Leasing contracts Inflation Target (%)

20,8 15,9 9,8 6,0 2018* 2019 2020 2021

15 (*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 Inflation Realization Estimate

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Fiscal Discipline

Savings and revenue potential of TL76 billion in 2019 Prioritization in investment projects Mega infrastructure projects with foreign financing Rearrangement PPP practices Regulation of social insurance scheme Expanding tax base and ensure tax equity Improvement program in tax process

1,9 1,8 1,9 1,7 2018* 2019 2020 2021

Budget Deficit Target (% of GDP)

16 (*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 Budget Deficit to GDP Realization Estimate

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Reducing Current Account Deficit Permanently

Support for sector-oriented investment projects PPP models for technology and R&D investments Structuring of Export Incentive System Diversification in export Reducing import dependency in energy Increasing quality and diversity in tourism Current Account Deficit (% of GDP)

4,7 3,3 2,7 2,6 2018* 2019 2020 2021

17 (*) New Economy Program 2019-2021 Current Account Deficit to GDP Realization Estimate

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Unique Aspects of NEP

Public Finance Transformation Office Measures for Banking and Real Economy Improvements in Taxation Practices Best Practices in Strategic Sectors Implementation and Monitoring

  • f NEP

18

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Public Finance Transformation Office

Structure

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance Teams within other ministries

Savings- and revenue- increasing initiatives will be identified Ministry level performance targets for each initiatives will be set Initiative roadmaps will be prepared and implemented

Progress against performance indicators will be monitored and reported

Operating Model Expected Impact (in 2019) BILLION TRY SAVINGS

60

  • 31 Billion TRY – Investments
  • 13.7 Billion TRY - Incentives
  • 10.1 Billion TRY – Social Security
  • 2.5 Billion TRY – Goods and Services
  • 2.7 Billion TRY – Others

BILLION TRY REVENUE INCREASE

16

Additional value potential is expected in following years

19

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Measures for Banking and Real Sector

Conducting financial health assessment studies of banking sector Implementation of a comprehensive policy set according to the results of the studies Restructuring of loans of real sector companies Restructuring of Development Bank of Turkey Restructuring of Real Estate Bank of Turkey

20

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Source: OECD, EUROSTAT, TURKSTAT

High Potential of Turkey

1,6 0,5 0,1 TURKEY OECD EU-28

Working Age Population Growth* (%)

* 2002-17 average, 15-64 years

Dynamic and young population Geopolitically strategic location Large domestic market Strong infrastructure

21

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Takeaways

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Rebalancing has begun

  • Increasing exports
  • Current account surplus since August 2018

Reducing inflation is the most important priority

  • Core inflation peaked in September
  • Reversal started in October

Fiscal discipline will be maintained

  • Budget deficit will be in line with targets and below 2% of GDP in 2018
  • Significant savings and incremental revenue

Relations with the US are normalizing

  • Diplomacy yielding results
  • Fostering stability in the region

Economy is the key political priority

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23

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

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Key Indicative Terms

24

Issuer Hazine Müsteşarlığı Varlık Kiralama Anonim Şirketi Obligor The Republic of Turkey Bookrunners & Joint Lead Managers Citi, KFH Capital, Standard Chartered Bank Expected Size Benchmark Currency USD Tenor 3 years Structure Ijara Type Rule 144A /Reg S Expected Issue Rating Moody’s: Ba3; Fitch: BB Listing Irish Stock Exchange Ranking Senior Unsecured Governing Law English Law / Turkish Law for asset-related documents Transaction Fatwa to be Provided by: Shariah Advisory Board of Citi Islamic Investment Bank E.C, KFH Capital Fatwa and Sharia Supervisory Board, Shariah Supervisory Committee of Standard Chartered Bank

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Structure Overview

25

Hazine Müsteşarlığı Varlık Kiralama Anonim Şirketi as Issuer

Certificateholders

Lease Certificates Cash

The Republic as Servicing Agent

Sale Agreement Lease Agreement Purchase Undertaking Sale of Lease Certificate Assets Sale Price

The Republic as Obligor Assets

Lease Certificate Assets Appointment as Servicing Agent Rental Payments Exercise Price Reimbursement of Servicing Costs (set-off against Supplemental Rental)

The Republic as Lessee

Substitution Undertaking Substituted Lease Certificate Assets Redemption Undertaking Lease Certificate Assets Redemption Assets Certificates

The Republic (acting through the Treasury) as seller

Periodic Distribution Amounts Dissolution Amount

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26

APPENDIX

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178,5 124,9 187,6 237,6 231,3 90 130 170 210 250 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 World EU EMs excl China & India EMs TURKEY (Real GDP, 2002=100)

Relative Growth Performance

Source: IMF 27

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Real Convergence

Source: OECD

24,2 47,9 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (GDP pc, PPP $ , Turkey/US) 37,1 67,3 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (GDP pc, PPP $ , Turkey/EU)

Narrowing per capita GDP gap btw Turkey and Advanced Countries

28

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  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Net FX Position On Balance Sheet Off Balance Sheet (Billion $)

Banking Sector: FX Position

Note: As of January 2019. Source: BRSA 29

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Total Indebtedness

30 Source: IIF

100 200 300 400 500 600 Hong Kong Singapore Lebanon Korea China Malaysia Chile Brazil Thailand Hungary Israel UAE Czech Rep. Poland TURKEY South Africa Egypt India Philippines Argentina Ukraine Colombia Mexico Pakistan Kenya Russia Ghana Indonesia Saudi Arabia Nigeria Households Non-financial corporations Government Financial corporations EM-30 Average: 214% (% of GDP, 2018Q3)

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Composition of Total Debt

31 Source: IIF

(Total debt, % of GDP, 2018Q3) 60 37 17 92 94 75 86 49 32 80 34 28 318 214 152 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 World EMs TURKEY Households Non-financial corporations Government Financial corporations

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Non-financial Corporate Sector Indebtedness

32 Source: IIF

92 94 75 20 40 60 80 100 120 World EMs TURKEY (Non-financial corp. debt, % of GDP, 2018Q3)