[PPT] - Vail Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Market/Research Report: - PowerPoint Presentation

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Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

Ralf Garrison Quarterly Market/Research Report:

Orientation/History
Econometrics
Summer Review, Winter Outlook
Transient Inventory Study Synopsys

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. What’s Next?

Index

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SLIDE 3

Who we are…

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SLIDE 4

MTNWEST

Aspen
Avon, Colorado
Breckenridge
Big Sky
Beaver Creek
Copper
Gunnison/Crested Butte
Keystone
Mt Bachelor
Mammoth Lakes
Jackson Hole
North Lake Tahoe
Snowmass
Steamboat
Park City Area
Summit County, CO
Telluride
Vail
Winter Park

SLIDE 5

SUPPLY DEMAND

P.C.

Agent

ATTRACTON

Ski, Golf, Events Conference, Rentals

A TRANSPORTATION

Plane, Car, Boat

T Call Center

Cloud

Consumer

Mobile

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Package/Sell Shop/Buy

Customer Data Product Data Fulfill/ Process

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24 properties representing 2,509 units 63% of total community census

Vail Property Participation

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Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences

24 Data Submitting Properties

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Arrabelle at Vail Square Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros

SLIDE 8

Vail’s DMX Participation

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OTHER PRODUCTS/SVCS

Economic Report – 2 x Annually
Council/EAC Seasonal Presentations
Proposed: 2016
Group vs FIT
New Special Event Calendar – Overlay
Vail-Only Research Web Portal
Further Grey Market Inventory

CURRENT VAIL PRODUCTS

Intelligence Pack
Reservation Activity Outlook
Executive Summary
Condo vs. Hotel
Group vs. FIT ( Proposed)
Multi Destination Comparative
Multi Destination Comparative –

Enhanced

Daily Occupancy Report (DOR)
Mid-month Summer (4 out of 6 months)
Mid-month Winter
Industry Overlay
Event Calendar Overlay
45 Day Retail Report
Guest Profiler
School Break Report (Vail Resorts Only)
Transient Inventory Study
Economic Indicators & Summary
Taxable Sales Report
Presentations

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous

Index

10

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Econometrics

Consistent Economic Recovery since 2009
…”Rising Tide” for Discretionary Spending
All Key Indicators have been positive
But Recent Volatility is of concern
Specifically:
Slowing Growth Globally
Geo-Political Uncertainty/Terrorism
Strong Dollar is International Headwind
Low Oil/Fuel is Good and Bad
Future: Uncertain – Warrants Attention

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Index (Base year and calc. method varies by series) Month

Consumer Confidence Index January 2007 - November 2015 Monthly Values, 6-Month Aggregate Average and 12 Month Moving Average Trend

Average 6 mo Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board))

Produced by DestiMetrics; Source: The Conference Board

12

Econometrics

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Econometrics: CCI: 2014- 2015

Growth slows, Volatility Rises…..

93.1 103.8 98.8 101.4 94.3 94.6 99.8 91.0 101.3 102.6 99.1 90.4

85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105

Index Month

Consumer Confidence Index 2014/15

Source: Conference Board

`

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14

Sep 2014: $1 CAD = $0.92 USD Sep 2015: $1 CAD = $0.75 USD Sep 2014: €1 EUR = $1.30 USD

+18%

Econometrics

+23%

Sep 2015: €1 EUR = $1.10 USD

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous

Index

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16

Industry: Summer Benchmarking Index

26.8% 21.6% 57.3%

30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07

Industry Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007

Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007

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Vail: Summer Benchmarking Index

13.3% 27.6% 44.3%

30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07

Vail Summer Performance: 2008 - 2014 vs 2007

Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007

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Summer 2015 May - October

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Year over Year % Change in INDUSTRY-WIDE

Vail

Occupancy ADR RevPAR

7% 3% 4% 11% 5% 8%

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Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

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50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May-15 16-May-15 23-May-15 30-May-15 6-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 27-Jun-15 4-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 25-Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 29-Aug-15 5-Sep-15 12-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 26-Sep-15 3-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 31-Oct-15

Occupancy

Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)

2015 YTD vs. 2014 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included)

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May-15 16-May-15 23-May-15 30-May-15 6-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 27-Jun-15 4-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 25-Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 29-Aug-15 5-Sep-15 12-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 26-Sep-15 3-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 31-Oct-15

Occupancy

Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)

2014 - historic actuals (22 properties included)

Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous

Index

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“Industry:” Winter Benchmarking Index

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2.5%

7.1% 4.6%

30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08

“

Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08

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Vail: Winter Benchmarking Index

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0.9%

21.5% 20.4%

30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08

Vail Winter Performance: 2008/09 - 2014/15 vs 2007/08 Benchmark

Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08

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Vail: Occupancy OTB – Winter 15/16

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

Industry

+1%

Vail

8%

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Vail: ADR OTB – Winter 15/16

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

Industry

+2% Vail +5%

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Vail: RevPAR OTB – Winter 15/16

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

Industry

+3%

Vail

3%

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Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

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50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16

Occupancy

Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)

2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included)

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Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 15/16

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

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50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16

Occupancy

Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)

2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included)

Easter 2015 Easter 2016 2015 World Alpine Ski Championships FBLA 2015 FBLA 2016

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Vail Daily Occupancy Report – Winter 14/15

Data as of Oct. 31, 2015

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10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16

Occupancy

Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)

2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included)

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. Miscellaneous

Index

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Purpose

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Track changes in inventory due to Vail’s

redevelopment

Realize Vail’s lodging supply & capacity
Understand Inventory Mix:
Condos vs. Hotels
Lodging Quality
Attempt to Quantify Rent By Owner Market
Note: preliminary report presented in

October then refined and now final.

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3,706 3,954 3,823 3,892

500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

2009 2011 2015 2016

YOY Change in Professionally Managed Units

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NEW INVENTORY

1. Four Seasons
2. Ritz Carlton
3. Solaris
4. Landmark
5. Lion Square

Total: +248

LOSS of INVENTORY

1. Lionshead Inn
2. Roost Lodge

Total: -152

NEW INVENTORY

1. The Lion

Total: +79 NEW INVENTORY PRE 2009:

1. The Sebastian
2. One Willow Bridge Road
3. Arrabelle at Vail Square

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1,781 1,843 199

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Platinum Gold Silver Bronze

Units by Lodging Quality Assurance Rating (restated)

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Inspections conducted by Vail Valley Partnership.
Based on individual interior unit inspections, not common

areas or amenities

Unique to Vail Valley and not universal

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Findings:

Professionally Managed..

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Evolution in in mix of properties
Increase in Condos
Decrease in Hotels
Lionshead inventory continues to grow
93% are Platinum or Gold
Comp Set:
Aspen declining/Snowmass steady
Breckenridge – Continues to grow inventory
Increase in RBO units in both communities

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Hotels

Transient Inventory

by Property/Unit Type

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Condos Private Homes Time Share

Rent By Owner

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Rent By Owner

Rent By Owner:

Consolidator/Distributor:Major Players

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VRBO Airbnb

HomeAway.com

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Hotels

The Vacation Rental Landscape:

Current Status: Complex

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Condos Private Homes Time Share

Rent By Owner

VRBO Airbnb

HomeAway.com

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Cautions!

“Grey Market” is…. Not black or white

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RBO market quantification is “ inconclusive”
Many RBO are occasional/inconsistent
Duplication:
Professionally managed units are listed
Same unit listed on multiple sites
Same unit listed by both homeowner & PMC
Timeshare weeks are listed
Accuracy of Information
Units inaccurately listed as located in Vail
Inconsistency of available “warm beds”
BUT: New Opportunities Exist in 2016: Re-visit is

being recommended.

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RBO Units Counts

39 1,036 957 383

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

VRBO.com HomeAway.com Airbnb.com

VRBO/Homeaway.com dominate, but are duplicative
Airbnb (whole unit) rentals are smaller but growing
Other similar services are increasingly popular

SLIDE 39

YOY Changes of units listed on VRBO.com

40 410 553 1036

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

2009 2011 2015

All R.B.O channels have grown significantly But rate of growth appears to be slowing

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1. Introduction/Brief History
2. Econometrics
3. Summer 2015 Review
4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook
5. Transient Inventory Study
6. What’s Next?

Index

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Wild Cards-What Next?

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www.assembly.destimetrics.com

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Thank you!

44 #DMXWinterOutlook