Vulnerability Assessment of Indian Himalayan Region - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Vulnerability Assessment of Indian Himalayan Region

• Indian Institute of Technology - Guwahati & Mandi

In collaboration with

Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

Under the project

“Capacity Building on Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in the States of Indian Himalayan Region”

Featu tures of f IH IHR – Hig ighly Vuln lnerable to CC

• The Himalayan ecosystem is vital to the ecological security of the India
• Provides forest cover, feeds perennial rivers that are the source of drinking water,

irrigation, and hydropower,

• Hot spot of Biodiversity; Source of high value agriculture and tourism.
• The states are characterized by land degradation, deforestation, proliferation of

invasive species, loss of biodiversity, landslides, invasion of commercial crops, low productive agriculture, migration, etc.

• Due to varying altitudes, the region experiences diverse climatic conditions; extreme

weather events, floods and droughts, high climate variability.

• These climatic and non-climatic stresses make the IHR ecosystems and

communities highly vulnerable to both the current climate variability and future climate change.

• Under climate change scenarios, impacts of climate change are projected to

exacerbate, thereby increasing the vulnerability of bio-physical & socio-economic systems.

Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

Adaptative Capacity; The ability of systems, institutions, humans and other

• rganisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities
• r to respond to consequences.

Sensitivity: Degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely

• r beneficially by climate variability or change.
• The effect may be direct (e.g. change in crop yield in response to a change

in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or

• Indirect (e.g. damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal

flooding due to sea level rise).

Definitions – IPCC, 2014

• 1. To rank various blocks, districts, and states/ Cropping systems,

Watersheds, Forest types, etc.

According to vulnerability profile or index

• 2. To prioritize regions, communities, cropping systems, etc. for

adaptation interventions

Based on vulnerability profiles

• 3. To identify drivers of vulnerability

To develop targeted Adaptation interventions to address the causes

• 4. Enable Adaptation planning;

Developing Targeted Adaptation plans and practices

Why Vulnerability Assessment

SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES

Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance

CLIMATE Natural Variability

Anthropogenic Climate Change

RISK

Hazards Exposure Vulnerability

IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change

The First step in Adaptation to future climate change – Reduce Vulnerability and Exposure to present Climate Variability

‘hazard’ is “the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss

• f life, injury, or other health impacts, as

well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources”.

vulnerability’ is considered as a system

property representing its “propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected”.

• ”Sensitivity and Adaptative

Capacity” Exposure’ is “the presence of

people, livelihoods, ecosystems, envi. functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected”;

Vuln lnerability Assessment Meth thodology

Step 12: Identification of drivers of vulnerability for adaptation planning Step 11: Vulnerability ranking of sectos, regions, communities, cropping sys., river basins, watersheds, forest types Step 10: Representation of vulnerability: spatial maps, charts and tables of vulnerability profiles and indices Step 9: Aggregation of indicators and development of vulnerabilty index Step 8: Assigning weights to the indicators; Stakeholders – Govt Depts and Experts Step 7: Normalization of indicators – to make the indicators unitless Step 6: Quantification and measurement of indicators; Largely Secondary Data based Step 5: identification, selection and definition of indicators for Vulnerability assessment Step 4: Selection of scale, period of assessment; State level and Dist Level – Current Vulnerability Step 3: Selection of tier method – Tier I and 2 Step 2: Selection of type of vulnerability assessment – “Socio-economic vulnerability” Step 1: Scoping and objectives of vulnerability assessment; Socio-economic Vulnerability

Indicators Sub-indicators

Functional relation with Vulnerability

Socio-economic, demographic status and health Population Density (Total population of a state divided by the total geographical area) Positive Percentage of Marginal farmers Positive Livestock to human ratio (Total livestock population in a state divided by the total population

• f that state)

Negative Per Capita Income (2014-15) at current prices as on 31.03.2017 Negative Number of Primary Health Centres per 100,000 Households (2017) Negative Percentage of women in the overall workforce Negative

Sensitivity of agricultural production Percentage area irrigated (2010-11) Negative Yield variability of food grains (2005-2015) - Coefficient of variation calculated for 10 year food grain yield data Positive Percentage area under Horticulture Crops (2016) Negative

Forest Dependent Livelihoods

Percentage area under open forest Positive Percentage area under forests per thousand rural household (2017) Negative

Access to information services and infrastructure

Percentage crop area insured under all Insurance Schemes (2015-16) Negative Percentage farmers taking crop loans (2015-16) Negative Average person days per Household under MGNREGA (2006-2016) Negative Percentage area with >30% slope Positive Road Density (surfaced roads in km divided by total geographic area in Sq km) Negative

Vulnerability In Index of f IH IHR States

Vulnerability In Index of f IH IHR States

Dri rivers of f Hig igh Vulnerability - Relative

State Drivers of Vulnerability

Assam - 1

Drivers of Higher Vulnerability:

• least area under irrigation;
• least forest area available per 1,000 rural households;
• least number of farmers taking loans
• lowest per capita income;
• low percentage area covered under crop insurance
• low MGNREGA participation.

Mizoram - 2

Major drivers of Higher vulnerability

• highest Crop yield variability,
• no area under crop insurance,
• largest area under open forests,
• largest area under slope >30% as compared to other states.
• second lowest percentage area under irrigation

Jammu and Kashmir - 3 Divers of vulnerability;

• least road density,
• No area under crop insurance,
• low area under forests per 1,000 rural households,
• low percentage area under horticulture crops, low livestock to human ratio and low percentage of women

in the overall workforce.

Rank State Drivers of Vulnerability 10 Arunachal Pradesh Drivers of Lower Vulnerability:

• largest area under forests per 1,000 households
• Least population density
• Most densely available health care facility.
• Relatively low % of marginal farmers
• High women participation in labour force that makes reduces the vulnerability of the state.

11 Uttarakhand Major Drivers of lower Vulnerability are:

• Low population Density
• High per capita Income
• Better Health access
• Higher % area Irrigated – Low Crop Yield Variability

12 Sikkim Drivers of Low Vulnerability:

• highest per capita income
• lowest area under open forests,
• Low population Density
• Very high area under Horticultural / Fruit Orchards

Relatively Lower Vulnerability: Least Vulnerable States

Indicators Rationale and functional relationship of indicators with vulnerability % area under slope>30degree (+) Steep topographical feature implies lack of availability of flat land and difficulty in access; likely to be adversely affected during floods, land slide, cloud burst etc. and increases sensitivity. % area under forest cover (-) Forests provide safeguard ecological processes, provide biophysical stability and alternate livelihood

• ptions through extraction of fodder, fuel-wood, and NTFPs. It enhances adaptive capacity.

Yield variability of food grains (+) High variability in yield indicates fluctuations in agro-climatic conditions over time. Agriculture sector has high contribution to the State Domestic Products and employment for the states in IHR. High yield variability reflects lack of adaptive capacity. Population density (+) Pressure on available natural resources, increases sensitivity. Female Literacy Rate (-) Educated individuals and societies, especially with high female literacy, have better preparedness and response to the disasters, suffered lower negative impacts, and are able to recover faster and hence have higher adaptive capacity. Infant Mortality Rate (+) Infant Mortality Rate is an indicator of the overall state of the public health, access to improved water, sanitation and medical infrastructure. Higher value implies lack of adaptive capacity. Below Poverty Line (BPL) Households (+) Higher percentage of BPL indicates lesser adaptive capacity Per capita Income A direct indicator representing the inherent sensitivity of people in a region. Average man-days under MGNREGA (-) Provides alternate sources of income and enhances adaptive capacity.

Indicators used for State Level Vulnerability Assessment

Utili ilizin ing Vuln lnerabil ility In Indic icator Data for Adaptation Pla lanning

• 1. Vulnerability Raking will help prioritizing Adaptation investment -

prioritizing Districts / Blocks/ communities / Forest types/ cropping systems, etc.

• 2. Identification & quantification of “Drivers of Vulnerability” will assist in

identifying the key causes for which Adaptation Practices / Strategies need to be developed.

• 3. Help to identify any Maladaptation practices – especially by studying the

Adaptive Capacity Indicators

• (E.g., Ground water based irrigation may be leading to land degradation in arid

zones, Monoculture plantations / crops – enhance Vulnerability)

• 4. Vulnerability information is useful for advocacy purpose, as it strengthens

the case or demand for vulnerability reduction/resilience building measures

• at present and in anticipation of a challenging future.

IIT Guwahati IIT Mandi IISc Bangalore

Anamika Barua Associate Professor

• Deptt. of Humanities, Social Science

Principal Investigator Shyamasree Dasgupta Assistant Professor Humanities and Social Sciences Co - Principal Investigator N.H. Ravindranath Professor Centre for Sustainable Technologies Rupam Bhaduri & Vishaka Gulati Research Scholar

• Deptt. of Humanities, Social Sciences

Kritishnu Sanyal Project Associate & Mir Khursheed Alam Research Scholar School of Humanities, Social Sciences Indu K Murthy Consultant Scientist & Tashina Esteves Research Associate, Jagmohan Sharma Additional PCCF (Forest Conservation) Government of Karnataka

Project Team