Whats up with the labor market? Jacqueline Michael-Midkiff BLS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

What’s up with the labor market?

Jacqueline Michael-Midkiff BLS Regional Economist Mountain Plains Information Office Kansas Economic Outlook Series – Hays November 3, 2017

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What is the BLS?

 Part of U.S. Department of Labor and an independent statistical agency  Principal Federal agency responsible for measuring

 Labor market activity  Working conditions  Price changes in the economy

 Mission: Collect, analyze, and disseminate essential economic information

to support public and private decision-making

 Serve diverse user communities by providing products and services that are

accurate, objective, relevant, timely and accessible

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BLS values in action

Half full? Half empty?

It is an 8 oz. glass with 4 oz. of liquid

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The Employment Situation’s two headline indicators

 Two independent perspectives

Current Population Survey (household data) Current Employment Statistics (establishment data)

 Why two?

More complete picture—employers and employees Compensating advantages

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The Employment Situation’s two headline indicators

 Unemployment rate

From household survey Share of people in labor force that are unemployed (by official definition) Detail by demographics, occupation, duration of unemployment, etc.

 Payroll growth

From establishment survey Change in jobs during period, not people Detail by industry

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Household View

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What is the current unemployment rate?

a) 1.7 % b) 4.2 % c) 5.1 % d) 8.3 %

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Alternative labor underutilization measures tell similar story about the recession and recovery

U-6: Total unemployed plus marginally attached workers and persons employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of labor force plus marginally attached workers.

P

U-6 U-5

U-3

U-4 U-2 U-1

Official Unemployment Rate Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Unemployment rates fall in most states

• ver the year (September 2017)

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Long-term unemployment declining

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Seasonally adjusted

Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Involuntary part time work declining, but still high

Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Establishment View

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Job growth has averaged around 150,000 per month in 2017

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Employment growth by state, Sept 2016 – Sept 2017

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Half of Ellis County private industry employment is concentrated in two supersectors

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Some industries still recovering

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Education and health services Retail Trade Leisure and Hospitality Construction Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Transportation and Warehousing Professional and business services

Employment level by U.S. industry, seasonally adjusted

Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Employment change over the year by industry

Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017

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Strong professional and business services growth

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Employment change - professional and technical services industries

Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017

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Job growth in health care

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Health care added over 300,000 jobs over the year

Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017

Ambulatory health care services Hospitals Nursing and residential care facilities

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Retail trade has lost 107,000 jobs since January

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Employment change – retail trade industries

Seasonally adjusted, 12-month net change, September 2017

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Construction growth has slowed

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Manufacturing job growth

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Transportation and warehousing growth similar to 2016

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Employment Projections

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Moderate Growth in Population and Labor Force

2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7%

1976-86 1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16 Projected 2016-26

Labor force Civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over Employment Annual rates of change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The Labor Force is Aging

15.8 14.8 13.3 11.7 25.3 21.5 22.3 22.1 27.3 23.7 20.6 22.2 19.7 23.2 21.3 19.2 11.9 16.8 22.5 24.8 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1996 2006 2016 Projected 2026 55 and older 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24 Percent distribution of the labor force

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Real GDP Growth Below Historical Levels

10-year compound annual rate of change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Projected 2.0% over 2016-26 2 4 6 1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-06 2006-16 Projected 2016-26

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Which industry is expected to add the most jobs between 2016 and 2026?

a) Health care b) Professional and technical services c) Federal government d) Information

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Health Care and Social Assistance remains the job machine

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment, projected 2016-26 Thousands of wage and salary jobs added, 2016

1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

• 0.2%
• 0.6%

Health care and social assistance Mining Educational services, private Construction Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Transportation and warehousing Financial activities Other services State and local government Retail trade Wholesale trade Information Utilities Federal government Manufacturing

• 736
• 56

3 53 146 412 789 352 480 364 1,319 2,160 865 507 91 3,998

Service providing Goods producing Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth = 0.7%

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5 of the 10 Fastest Growing Occupations are Related to Healthcare

105.3% 96.1% 46.7% 37.4% 37.4% 36.0% 33.4% 30.8% 30.5% 29.4%

Solar photovoltaic installers Wind turbine service technicians Home health aides Personal care aides Physician assistants Nurse practitioners Statisticians Physical therapist assistants Software developers, applications Mathematicians

Median annual wages, May 2016 $39,240 $52,260 $22,600 $21,920 $101,480 $100,910 $80,500 $56,610 $100,080 $105,810 Percent change, projected 2016-26 0.9 253.4 27.2 12.4 56.0 39.7 754.0 425.6 5.5 11.9 Employment change, projected 2016-26 (in thousands)

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Other Indicators

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Wage increases remain above 2%

Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Number of unemployed persons per job opening declining

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Note: Shaded area represents recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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What you can do for us

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Contact Information

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Jacqueline Michael-Midkiff Regional Economist Mountain Plains Information Office www.bls.gov 816.285.7000 blsinfokansascity@bls.gov