SLIDE 4 4
Growth Enabled by: Fast-growing Emerging Middle Class with More Disposable Income
Fair wealth distribution in East Africa (Gini Coefficient comparison) Stable and lower inflation outlook for East Africa compared to Africa (CPI weighted by GDP per East African country(1)) East Africa forecasted to grow faster than the rest of Africa (East African GDP & Growth (US$bn)) Increasing disposable income in African Households (Share of households in Africa by incomebrackets)
34% 24% 18% 29% 32% 29% 18% 21% 23% 11% 14% 17% 6% 8% 12% 2000 2008 2020F
Globals (>US$20k) Consuming Middle Class (US$10k-US$20k) Emerging Consumers (US$5k-US$10k) Basic Consumer Needs (US$2k-US$5k) Destitute (<US$2k) Discretionary Income Basic Needs 128m Households with income > US$5,000 100% = 163m 196m 244m
Income brackets
74 76 80 85 100 111 125 139 154 171 187 207 2% 6% 6% 18% 17% 11% 11% 18% (5%) 18% 13% 10% 5% 3% 5% 11% 10% 11% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2011 East AfricaGDP East AfricaGrowth AfricaGrowth
59m 85m Source: McKinsey’s Africa Consumer Insight Centre Source: World Economic Outlook(Apr-2014) Source:CIA
13% 11% 5% 14% 12% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 11% 9% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EastAfrica
Source: World Economic Outlook(Apr-2014) Note: (1) Countries include Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi
Africa 40 45 63 52 47 47 44
Increasing disposable income – generating substantial consumer demand for retailers
World Africa SouthAfrica Brazil China Rwanda Uganda Kenya 43 Burundi 42 Russia 42 Tanzania 38 India 37