Why the Social Dimension of Europe 2020 is an Oxymoron Bart - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SEK Trade Union School 2011

The EU2020 strategy and Economic Governance

Nicosia, 19 – 20 September 2011

Why the “Social Dimension of Europe 2020” is an Oxymoron

Bart Vanhercke Co-Director, European Social Observatory (OSE) Associate academic staff K.U.Leuven (CESO)

Not about

• 1. The European Social Observatory

(OSE)

• Founded in 1984
• Centre for research, information and

training with historical trade union roots

• Specialises

in the social dimension of the EU: social and employment policies

• Mission is to analyse

the mutual influence between the EU and the Member State level (important important: reciprocal relationship, not ‘top down’)

Network

• Works closely with

– Belgian and European public authorities (tendering) – Academics (B and EU) – Trade unions (B and EU) – Civil society organisations

The team (14) The team (14)

Pascal Pascal Sophie Sophie Benoît Benoît Régine Régine Dalila Dalila Cécile Cécile Seba/ Seba/ Tereza Tereza Lorena Lorena Rita Rita Renaud Renaud Françoise Françoise Ramón Ramón David David Bart Bart

Our core research topics Our core research topics

• Employment and restructuring
• Health care systems
• Pensions
• Social Inclusion and Social Protection
• Institutional issues
• New forms of governance (‘OMC’)

At your disposal…

Questions/Clarifications during presentation?

Interrupt me! (if not I will keep on talking ☺)

Translation (moving target)

Why the “Social Dimension of Europe 2020” is an Oxymoron

Careful

• Why is the ‘Social Dimension of Europe

2020’ an Oxymoron (a contradiction) And NOT

• Why is ‘Social Europe’

an Oxymoron (easily confused)

• 1. A small detour about ‘Social Europe’
• A. Social acquis (legislation)

– non-discrimination (e.g.. pensions, retirement age) – Coordination of social security rights (incl. for third country nationals – Chilean taxi driver) – Working time (hospitals, transport) – Patient right (cross-border care)

impacts on social policies in all MS (eg. information and consultation)

• 1. A small detour about ‘Social Europe’
• B. European social dialogue
• Parental leave (reviewed in 2009)
• Part time work
• Etc.
• C. Structural Funds (ESF and ERDF)
• Infrastructure (incl. hospitals)
• Re-integration of persons far away from the

labour market (creativity)

• Priorities more firmly linked to Europe 2020
• bjectives (conditionality)

• 1. A small detour about ‘Social Europe’
• D. Internal Market legislation
• Economic integration through ‘four freedoms (persons,

capital, …): cornerstone of European integration (cf. ‘Bolkestein’)

• But: a social dimension is equally being developed…
• Some examples:

– European legislation re. equal treatment M/W (fear for unfair competition – issue in Cyprus) – Health and safety, e.g. fire prevention, machinery directive (e.g. unsafe FR chainsaws in IT Regions) (free movement of goods) – Protection of victims of car accidents abroad and in the Member States (free movement of persons)

Internal market

• Approximation:

– not towards the bottom – nor to an average level – but to highest level of protection (often Germany…)

• Basic reason: shield off external

competition (China, Brasil etc.)

• Social Europe ‘under the radar’
• Internal market legislation: QMV

In sum: Europe 2020 and ‘Social Europe’

• Social Europe cannot be reduced to

‘Lisbon’

• r ‘Europe 2020’
• Include in assessment of ‘Social

Europe’

– Other instruments (legislation, Social Dialogue, Structural Funds) – Other policy areas (internal market)

Now, time to address the Oxymoron!

Questions/Clarifications?

Remember an Oxymoron?

• A figure of speech, or a phrase, that

combines two notions that seem to be the

• pposite of each other
• Examples are ‘deafening silence’,

‘extremely average’, ‘virtual reality’ and ‘known secret’ contradiction in terms/paradox

Why would the social dimensions

• f Europe 2020 be an oxymoron?

–First reading of the EU‘s new socio-economic governance:

• social issues (employment,

social protection and social inclusion) seem far from central

Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines

• 1. Macro-economic

surveillance (Integrated Guidelines 1-3)

• 2. Thematic coordination

(Integrated Guidelines 4-10) Monitored through 5 EU Headline Targets

• 3. Fiscal

Surveillance National Reform Programmes (NRPs) (including national targets) Member States - April Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCP) Member States – April

Stability and Growth Pact

synchronized

Already at first sight… the social dimension is far from key!

• Europe 2020 provides some

progress, when compared to its predecessor (‘Titanic 2010’)

II. Lisbon and Europe 2020 compared: some progress for Social Europe

1. Europe 2020 presents a more all- encompassing strategy

• Rather comprehensive political

agenda for Europe (incl. environmental targets, continued EES)

• Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive

Growth: return to the original Lisbon Strategy

• more than just growths and jobs

(socioeconomic policy triangle), as compared to Revised Lisbon (2005)

• But: the discourse is changing… (crisis,

Euro+ Pact)

2. Increased pressure on targets and monitoring of progress

• European indicators, allowing

comparison between Member States (peer pressure, ‘benchmarking’)

• Cyprus:

– poverty of elderly (see European Council Recommendation) – Poverty among women (esp. single parents) – R&D – Digital divide – Soft ‘law’ to implement EU legislation beyond its formal transposition

EU Poverty target (decrease ‘AROP’ by 20 million)

• the mere existence is a step forward

(even though less ambitious than many hoped)

• Social cohesion/inclusion: now the same

status as the other political priorities (on paper)

• Adoption of national targets:
• Increased pressure (e.g. B)
• See NRP Cyprus
• High pressure on Member States -> taken

more seriously than in the past decade (??)

• 3. Social protection and Social

Inclusion are back in (compared to 2005)

– Increased potential visibility and importance of social issues:

• Several Integrated Guidelines

– Guideline 10 re Social Inclusion and combatting poverty – Guideline 9 re Education and training (!)

• Seven European Platforms (but what are

they?)

– Platform against Poverty (EPAP) – Digital divide

Lisbon and Europe 2020 compared: some progress for Social Europe

• Window of opportunity: can still be seized
• But

–let us beware what we wish for –there is not only a “keep moving” sign for social Europe

III. Risks in relation to Europe 2020

• 1. No room for complacency
• Pursuing the wrong paradigm

– growth, growth, growth (instead of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth) – First EC Annual Growth Survey… where is the social dimension

• Criticism (repeat some of Lisbon‘s flaws):

– supply-side measures; market-based understanding of growth – absence of an optimal policy-mix (e.g. no stricter wage coordination in Europe; no mechanisms to balance external economic asymmetries) – Lack of qualitative considerations (“decent work”)

• 2. Social Dimension subsumed into

economic objectives

– Innovation and social progress tied to fulfillment of debt criteria

• tunnel vision, even IMF/Lagarde

agrees!

– Close link NRPs and Stability and Convergence Programmes – Synchronisation: read together

• Cyprus NRP 6 May 2011
• Cyprus Stability Programme

7 may 2011

Europe 2020 - Integrated Guidelines

Macro-economic surveillance (Integrated Guidelines 1-3) Thematic coordination (IGs 4-10) Monitored through 5 EU Headline Targets Fiscal Surveillance National Reform Programmes (NRPs) (including national targets) Member States - April Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCP) Member States – April Policy Guidance (Opinions and Recommendations) European Commission – June Finalisation and Adoption of Opinions and Recommendations Council of the EU (ECOFIN and EPSCO) – June Endorsment of Opinions and Recommendations European Council – June

• Finalisation of National Budgets
• Policy measures at national level

Spring European Council: Debate and Orientation (Progress towards headline targets) - March Supported by:

• EU Flagship Initiatives
• Single Market Relaunch
• Trade and External Policies
• EU Financial Support

Annual Growth Survey: Progress and Orientation European Commission – January Debate and Orientation European Parliament and Council of the EU –February

Stability and Growth Pact European Semester Domestic Semester synchronized European Semester Domestic Semester

In such a framework

– Unclear: to what extent will country- specific Recommendations focus on Social Inclusion (Guideline 10?) – And what if (say) Germany of Poland do not set poverty targets, – What if Cyprus misses its R&D or educational targets (by far?):

• Mentioned/stressed in AGS? Policy warning?

– See first round of NRPs (ECOFIN/EPC)

Questions/Clarifications?

• 3. Social Protection and Social

Inclusion reduced to fighting poverty

• What about common objectives on pensions

and health care? ► Enter mainly insofar as they contribute to the social exclusion goals

• Social Inclusion Guideline framed as

‘Employment Guideline’ (Treaty base)

– Responsibility for monitoring, implementation?

Risk that social protection and social inclusion may be reduced to social inclusion only with the latter focusing narrowly

• n increasing access to

employment, but not on the

• utsiders

• 4. What role for the Social OMC?
• Governance structure still unfinished

Many questions remaining about the future of the Social OMC:

Discussion almost finalised in SPC Ad Hoc Group

• In sum:

–Synchronisation (budgetary, macroeconomic and thematic strands) involves serious risks for the Social dimension of Europe… –See reference to “shortcomings of COLA ”, “limited progress on healthcare reform“ and “containing public-sector wages” in Cyprus (Council Recommendations 12 July 2011)

Questions/Clarifications?

• IV. Where do we go from here?

Safeguarding Europe 2020`s Social Dimension

• 2 possible future scenarios:

minimum scenario ↔ paradigm shift

Minimum Scenario:

• Ensuring a role for the

social stakeholders (EPSCO, EMCO, SPC)

• Continue a broad OMC

(all 3 strands)

• Beefing up its instruments

(monitoring, horizontal clause)

• Greater involvement of

stakeholders (SP, NGOs, etc.) procedural rules?

• Financial support (e.g.

ESF): conditionality

Paradigm Shift:

Social Investment Pact (Hemerijck, Palier, Vandenbroucke)

• Combine short-term fiscal

consolidation and long- term social investment in the context of Europe 2020.

• Objectives: modernise

welfare system, invest in people to prepare (capacitate) them for social change and global competition.

Social Investment Pact

Embedded in financial regulation. Oriented to the achievement of greater equality. Priorities of social investment:

• Improvement of human capital as a means for a

more competitive Europe

• Child care and education as a priority
• Later and more flexible retirement
• Capacitating orientation of services

V. Conclusion and Outlook

• Proof of the pudding is in the eating (still

early days)

• New opportunities when compared to

the Lisbon Strategy:

– rather all-encompassing; increased visibility (IG 10, headline target, EPAP)

• But also serious risks:

– Dominance of economic considerations (growth objectives and synchronisation); reduction to social inclusion; Social OMC?

• Still room for building the Social dimension of

Europe 2020 (but difficult!) – it‘s a new-born…

• Strong alliances needed: up to the social actors

to create leverage, and to make the best of this

• xymoron
• But HOW?

Making the best of the Oxymoron (or fight it?)

• Use European Council Conclusions

toward Cyprus, e.g. “[…] taking care to address the high at-risk-of-poverty rate for the elderly” (Council Recommendations 12 July 2011)

• Use agreed targets, push for ambitious

(sub-)targets, increase monitoring of non-social policies (Lisbon Treaty)

Making the best of the Oxymoron (or fight it?)

• Use

it as a step-up to EU legislation (but political context?)

– Minimum income would be a first candidate (EAPN, EC tender EC, B Presidency) – What about upcoming Cyprus Presidency (procedural rules for stakeholder involvement)?

• Contribute to critical discourse (picked up:

politicians, MEP’s, opposition, academics)

– EAPN report on social dimension of NRP – Eurochild report on how ‘child poverty’ is being addressed Where is Cyprus (22 national contributions)?!

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