Yapı Kredi Investor Presentation Yapı Kredi Investor Presentation
Merrill Lynch Turkish Equity 1 1 Conference Merrill Lynch Turkish Equity 1-1 Conference
London, 19-20 January 2009
Yap Kredi Investor Presentation Yap Kredi Investor Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Yap Kredi Investor Presentation Yap Kredi Investor Presentation Merrill Lynch Turkish Equity 1 1 Conference Merrill Lynch Turkish Equity 1-1 Conference London, 19-20 January 2009 AGENDA Current macro and sector outlook Current macro
London, 19-20 January 2009
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(*) BRSA Consolidated
Production and consumption still in
Current Macro and Sector Outlook
Slowdown in GDP growth to 0.5% in
Expected GDP growth of 0.8% in
Main factors behind expected
Weak foreign demand for exports Volatility in financial markets High interest and exchange rates High interest and exchange rates Increasing unemployment Weak consumer confidence
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Note: 2009 Forecasts as 23 January
Current Macro and Sector Outlook
Inflation on an upward trend in
25% 27%
Central Bank aggressively
17% 19% 21% 23%
Key risk factors for disinflation
13% 15%
Dec-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09
B d t ( l d) CB ON t ( l d)
Bond rate (annual compound) CB ON rate (annual compound)
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Note: 2009 Forecasts as 23 January
Current Macro and Sector Outlook
Slowdown in exports in 4Q08,
Larger contraction in imports
Expected decline in exports and
As a result, current account
As of Nov’08, net FDI inflows
5
Note: 2009 Forecasts as 23 January
Turkey has been relatively less
Vs 3Q08
Ongoing talks for and expectation of a
795 748 432
Russia Turkey
+135 bps +486 bps 360 b
413 833 795
Latvia Kazakhstan
+360 bps +503 bps 2 b
Turkey is less vulnerable in terms of
473 617 413
Romania Croatia
+275 bps +357 bps
Agressive rate cuts by the Central
172 245
Slovakia Poland Bulgaria
+248 bps +171 bps +112 bps
379 193
Hungary Czech Rep. Slovakia Current 4Q08 3Q08
+112 bps +130 bps +213 bps
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g y 3Q08
Current Macro and Sector Outlook
2008 followed by contraction in both TL and FC loans in all categories (except for credit
Banking Sector 1Q08 ∆ 2Q08 ∆ 3Q08 ∆ 4Q08 ∆ 2008 Total Loans 11% 8% 6% 2% 30% TL Loans 7% 10% 7%
22%
FC loans in all categories (except for credit cards) in 4Q due macroeconomic slowdown and banks’ cautious stance
loan contraction and asset quality
FC Loans (in USD) 12% 6% 4%
16% Consumer Loans 9% 8% 8%
24% Mortgage 10% 7% 5%
21% Auto
1% 1%
General Purpose 10% 10% 11%
33%
deterioration in SME, credit cards and consumer loans
Implementation of intensive restructuring
in aftermath of 2001 crisis thoroughly
General Purpose 10% 10% 11% 1% 33% Credit Cards 5% 11% 4% 6% 29% Corporate 13% 7% 6% 2% 32% Total Deposits 8% 5% 3% 8% 27% TL 7% 5% 7% 5% 27% FC (in USD) 0% 10%
in aftermath of 2001 crisis thoroughly addressing weaknesses
No imminent liquidity problems and
limited reliance on wholesale funding
Sector well capitalised with CAR well
FC (in USD) 0% 10% 3% 9% 3% NPL Ratio 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% Loans / Deposits 82% 84% 87% 82% 82% CAR 16.0% 15.3% 16.1% 15.4%*
**
3.4% 6.7%
4 0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
above regulatory limits vs peer countries
No toxic assets on banks’ balance sheets Limited FX risk
O i f i t b k FX d it k t
Credit Cards Total Loans
2.2% 3.3%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% c-07 n-08 b-08 r-08 r-08 y-08 n-08 l-08 g-08 p-08 t-08 v-08 c-08
Opening of interbank FX deposit market
where CBT acts as intermediary
Reduction of FX reserve requirement
from 11% to 9% resulting in an additional foreign currency liquidity of ~USD 2.5 bln
Commercial Loans Consumer Loans Dec Jan Feb Mar Ap May Jun Ju Aug Sep Oc Nov Dec
g y y 7
Source: Weekly BRSA data as of 26 December. * As of October 2008 ** Deposit banks
2007 2008 Banking Sector Jan-Oct Jan-Oct % chg Total Revenues 32,662 36,720 12%
Current Macro and Sector Outlook (mln YTL)
Net Interest Income 20,515 24,804 21% Non-Interest Income 12,147 11,917
6,417 7,988 24%
5,730 3,929
Operating Costs 14,552 18,011 24% HR costs 6,189 7,657 24% Non-HR costs 8,363 10,354 24% Operating Income 18,110 18,709 3%
Provisions 2,509 4,540 81% Pre-tax Income 15,601 14,169
Tax 2,693 2,771 3% Net Income 12,908 11,398
, ,
22% 26%
18.1%
10% 14% 18%
8
10%
Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08
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(*) BRSA Consolidated
(mln YTL)
Summary 9M08 results (BRSA Consolidated)
725 1,102 1,077 28.5% 32.0% 31.3%
(2)
2.8 pp 49%
(2) (1)
9M07 9M08
( )
9M07 9M08 9M07 9M08 57.2% 50.5% 56.4% 50.6%
5.8 pp
2.24% 2.19%
(2) (3) (2)
0 10 pp
9M07 9M08 2.09% 2.19% 9M07 9M08
0.10 pp
9M07 9M08
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(*) Calculations based on beginning of the year equity. Annualized (**) Calculations based on net income/end of period total assets. Annualized (1) Calculations based on restated equity and net income; ROE as of 9M07 was 28.7% based on reported equity and net income (2) Normalized to exclude the one-off effects of pension fund provisions on costs, general provision release on revenues and tax settlement expense on tax provisions in 1Q08. Also normalized to exclude one-off tax risk provision in 2Q08 (3) Normalized to exclude the gross-up effect of Superonline write-off on revenues and provisions in 2Q07
9M07 9M08
Income Statement, mln YTL
9M07 9M08 YoY YoYN(1) QoQN(2)
Summary 9M08 results (BRSA Consolidated)
Total Revenues 2,856 3,608 26% 19% 0% Net Interest Income 1,746 2,075 19% 19% 1% Non-Interest Income 1,110 1,533 38% 18%
755 1,020 35% 35% 11% Operating Costs
12% 7%
HR
13% 13%
Non-HR*
13% 13%
Other**
4%
Operating Income 1,223 1,787 46% 34% 8%
Provisions
94% 48% 11% Pre-tax Income 1,026 1,404 37% 31% 7% Tax
73% 54% 3%
Net Income 853 1,105 30% 27% 8% Minority Interest
n.s. n.s. n.s. Consolidated Net Income 725 1,102 52% 49% 7%
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(1) Normalized to exclude the one-off effects of pension fund provisions on costs, general provision release on revenues and tax settlement expense on tax provisions in 1Q08. Also normalized to exclude one-off tax risk provision in 2Q08. 2Q07 normalized to exclude the gross-up effect of Superonline write-off on revenues and provisions (2) 2Q08 normalized to exclude one-off tax risk provision (*) Non-HR costs include HR related non-HR costs, advertising, rent, SDIF, taxes and depreciation (**) Oher includes pension fund provisions and loyalty points on World card
Balance Sheet
bln YTL
9M07 2007 9M08 % YoY %YTD %QoQ
y/y). 3Q growth at 7%
Summary 9M08 Results (BRSA Consolidated)
Total Assets 54.3 56.1 65.9 21% 17% 2% Loans 25.5 28.7 36.5 44% 27% 7% TL 17.7 19.4 24.7 40% 27% 8% FC 7.8 9.3 11.8 53% 27% 5%
y/y). 3Q growth at 7%
(vs 51% at YE07) while securities weight in assets down to 20% (vs 26% at
FC 7.8 9.3 11.8 53% 27% 5% Securities 14.6 14.5 13.2
Deposits 32.6 33.7 40.3 24% 20% 2% TL 18.4 18.9 22.8 24% 21% 4%
down to 20% (vs 26% at YE07)
y/y) with share of demand
FC 14.2 14.8 17.5 23% 18%
Shareholders’ Equity 4.8 5.0 5.7 19% 15% 7% AUM 6.1 6.8 6.3 4%
deposits over total at 17.0% vs 16.6% in 2Q08
91% (vs 85% at YE07), at a
Ratios 9M07 2007 9M08 ∆YoY ∆YTD ∆QoQ Loans / Assets 46.8% 51.2% 55.4% 8.6 pp 4.2 pp 2.6 pp Securities / Assets 26.9% 25.9% 20.0%
Loans / Deposits 78 0% 85 2% 90 5% 12 5 pp 5 3 pp 4 2 pp
( ), comfortable level
13.7% at Group level and 15 4% at Bank level
Loans / Deposits 78.0% 85.2% 90.5% 12.5 pp 5.3 pp 4.2 pp Capital Adequacy Ratio 13.4% 12.8% 13.7% 0.2 pp 0.9 pp 0.5 pp
12.9% 13.7% 15.4% 2.5 pp 1.7 pp 0.4 pp
15.4% at Bank level
loans in 3Q 12
(*) Does not include full effect of YTL 920 mln capital increase. As of September 08, YTL 670 mln of capital commitment of KFS was incorporated in Tier 2 as approved by BRSA (YTL 330 mln in 1Q, YTL 340 mln in 2Q) . Including the full impact of capital increase, CAR would be ~16% at Bank level and ~ 14% at Group level Note: Loan figures indicate performing loans
Commercial business on track generating sustained and profitable growth Growth driven by branch expansion Increased focus on key strategic segments/products also through fine tuning of business Increased focus on key strategic segments/products, also through fine tuning of business
Continued attention to customer and employee satisfaction with clear improvement trend Strong leverage on innovation as another key driver for sustainable growth
Significant improvement in Alternative Delivery Channels bringing YKB back to leadership in
Despite agressive branch openings, improvement in cost/income due to rigid cost management and
Sound positioning through prudent banking in a deteriorating environment Proven capability to revise strategy to focus on profitable and healthy growth vs. market share
Strong capital base
Timely and successful capital increase of YTL 920 mln completed in Aug’08 Termination of divestiture processes of YK Sigorta / YK Emeklilik and YK Koray not constraining
Sound liquidity and funding position
Secured USD 1 bln one-year syndicated loan facility in Sep’08 with all-in cost of Libor+0.75% As declared in July08, fully paid back the USD 700 mln two-year syndication maturing in Dec’08 Stable deposit base (71% of TL deposits contributed by individuals) Comfortable loans/deposits ratio
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Comfortable loans/deposits ratio
YKB’s Branch Network(1)
2007 +185 net
Total Revenues 32% above plan Realizations vs Plan(2)
2008 Net Openings 1Q08: +49 Latest developments
Performance of New Openings(2,3) Customer Business Generation by New
676 branches +185 net
Total Revenues 32% above plan Total Cust. Business(2): 47% above plan Total Costs 16% below plan
861 branches
Territorial Distribution of Branches
1Q08: +49 2Q08: +66 3Q08: +44 4Q08: +26
Behind plan
Performance of New Openings( , )
(No. of Branches)
Customer Business Generation by New Openings since launch of plan(2)
(mln YTL)
Mass &
1,120
Territorial Distribution of Branches
Mid/small 7%
37%
38% 62%
In line with/ above plan SME Mass & Uppermass Top 4 cities Mid/small cities 93%
426 103 591 63% 57% 37% 43% 38%
Deposits AUM Loans Cust. Business(4)
426 2007 2008
expansion plan for 2009 has been revised putting in temporary the targeted branch openings 14
(1) Including one off-shore branch in Bahrain (2) As of October 2008 (3) Including branches open for more than 2 months (4) Customer business: loans + deposits + AUM
Latest developments
55%
69% 61%
Share of ADCs in total transactions
39% 47% 52% 54% 54% 55%
159% increase in ATM usage for
84% increase in ATM usage for Branch ATM
61%
33% 32% 32% 30% 14% 15% 14% 14% 15%
Barcode based ATM bill payment
Branch I t t & 14%
14% 14% 15%
Coin dispenser functionality to
Corporate internet platform Internet & Call Center
(Launch of project) July 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sept 08 Nov 08
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(*) All migration transactions with no limits and all customer types
Latest developments
Measures already taken in 9M08 Additional new measures from Oct’08 onwards
i i f b th t il d t l i
Profitability & Funding
upward (inclusive of lending fees & commissions)
significant upward repricing
More selective criteria with regards to loan underwriting
and monitoring
Reduced branch authority in SME/Individual lending Strengthened collection process in credit cards & SMEs Reduced exposure to certain sectors
Credit
and credit risk
entire client portfolio in terms of riskiness
Reduced exposure to certain sectors
(i.e. transportation, textile, construction)
Credit check on sizeable disbursements
Credit Process riskiness
limit assignment and collateralization
debt-to-income (i e auto loans) Cost Management & Efficiency
Revised budget internally Increased efficieny program release target Froze new hiring at HQ level Reduced discretionary costs (advertising events projects)
debt-to-income (i.e. auto loans)
Efficiency
Reduced discretionary costs (advertising, events, projects)
Organic Growth
Close monitoring of revenue and profitability of new
branch openings
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(*) BRSA Consolidated
2008YE preliminary highlights
1Q08 ∆ 2Q08 ∆ 3Q08 ∆ 4Q08 ∆ 2008 Total Loans 11% 7% 7% 7% 35% Total Loans 11% 7% 7% 7% 35% TL 7% 10% 8% 1% 29% FC (in USD) 8% 5% 5%
15% Total Deposits 7% 9% 2% 9% 30% Total Deposits 7% 9% 2% 9% 30% TL 5% 11% 4% 8% 31% FC (in USD) 0% 12%
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Note: The figures presented in the table above are preliminary BRSA Bank-only figures of Yapı Kredi Bank which are subject to change till official announcement
2009 Outlook
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In light of the macroeconomic slowdown, YKB will continue to realign its strategy and priorities with a stronger emphasis on maintaining profitability vs growth YKB will take advantage of this period in order to further improve its efficiency and productivity so as to be best
2009 outlook
YKB will take advantage of this period in order to further improve its efficiency and productivity so as to be best positioned for growth when macroeconomic conditions stabilize Continue to Focus on Long Term Actions to Achieve Sustainable Growth ■ Firm commitment to growth also through branch network expansion once positive signals of recovery are visible ■ Maintaining major strategic projects to continue to foster efficiency ■ Further improvement of divisionalised organization through revised segmentation criteria/new and enhanced service model (affluent banking, corporate and commercial banking) ( g g) ■ Maintaining profitable growth of credit card business (strengthen direct sales force, reduce merchant discounts, bonus point and installment expenses) ■ Optimization of revenues/RWAs (better pricing and capital allocation); ongoing search for RWA optimization measures to reduce capital absorption p p ■ Continued focus on improvement of customer satisfaction ■ Productivity enhancements on existing network through better MIS tools and revised incentive systems ■ Additional optimization at operational level ■ Continuation of transaction migration project to increase efficiency ■ Further systems integration to reduce running cost basis (migration of credit card operations to open platform) ■ Stronger collaboration among network and product factories (better integrate insurance/bancassurance to increase cross sell) 20 )
2009 outlook
Strong focus on monitoring collection and work-out Corporate/commercial: still sound asset quality with focus on reviewing portfolios to manage exposures at risk through strenghtened collateral or eventually exits/restructuring exposures at risk through strenghtened collateral or eventually exits/restructuring SME: reinforcement of monitoring; work-out unit set up mid-2008 to tackle and address increasing files at risk Credit Cards & Individuals: Continued centralization process with strong emphasis and additional resources for Asset Quality Continued centralization process with strong emphasis and additional resources for soft collection up to 90 days Revised approach to legal follow-up to improve collection and recoveries Strong emphasis on maintaining high liquidity position mainly by a sustained position on deposit market Still long on liquidity both in terms of FX and TL with: Signficant counterbalance capacity as a result of considerable bond porftolio and availability for repos and refinancings Conservative approach to FX lending to manage limited access to FX and internatonal Liquidity Suspension of branch expansion, not deviation Cutting of all discretionary costs pp g g markets Headcount freeze at HQ level and headcount release from subs Additional efficiency opportunities Revised approach to compensation in line with current environment Fine tuning of subsidiary business models to improve cooperation, avoid duplications and to exploit Cost Control 21 g y p p p p cost synergies; possible simplification of Group structure
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