Yemens Population and Development Challenges Outline I. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Yemen’s Population and Development Challenges

Outline I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts – Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

Outline I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts – Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

Total Population 1950-2004 19.7M 4.3 M 2004 1950

High Fertility Drives Yemen’s Rapid Population Growth 6 0 Crude Birth Rate 5 0 4 0 1.8% 3.7% Rate of Natural Increase P e r T h o u s a n d 3 0 3.0% 2 0 1 0 Crude Death Rate 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 4 Rate of natural increase = birth rate – death rate

Total Fertility Rate (Births/Woman) 6.1 4.8 3.5 3.2 Yemen Sudan Syria Egypt Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review

Who Have the Highest Fertility? 6.7 6.7 6 No schooling Rural 2.8 4.5 Yemen Urban Secondary or higher

Infant Mortality Rate 8 0 7 2 .6 6 9 .2 7 0 6 0 5 0 P e r 1 ,0 0 0 L i v e B ir t h s 3 6 . 9 4 0 3 0 1 8 .6 2 0 1 0 0 Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review (Highlights)

Under Five Mortality Rate 1 1 8 .3 1 2 0 9 5 .4 1 0 0 8 0 P e r 1 ,0 0 0 L i v e B i r t h s 6 0 4 2 4 0 2 1 . 5 2 0 0 Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n Source: World Population Prospects the 2006 Review

Maternal Mortality Ratio (Adjusted – 2000) 5 9 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 3 6 5 4 0 0 P e r 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 L i v e B i r t h s 3 0 0 1 6 0 2 0 0 8 4 1 0 0 0 Y e m e n E g y p t S y r ia S u d a n Source : Human Development Report 2006. Yemen Family Health survey 2003

Fertility Assumptions for the Future � High assumption --- Fertility rate of 6 children per woman will continue up to 2035--- RED � UN Moderate assumption--- Fertility rate declines from 6 to 3 children per woman by 2035--- ORANGE � Low assumption ---Based on National Population Policy, with fertility rate declining to 3.3 children per woman in 2025 and to 2.1 by 2035--- GREEN

Estimated Future Population 61 6 0 46 5 0 43 4 0 Millions 3 0 23 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e r a t e

Outline I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts – Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources III. Conclusion and Main Challenge

Economic Sector GDP per capita $ 1,293 $ 1,085 $ 631 $ 594 Yemen Egypt Syria Sudan Source: Human Development Report 2006.

GDP Per Capita ($) 2 0 0 0 1 ,9 2 5 1 ,8 4 7 1 5 0 0 1 ,3 6 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e ra t e

Projected Labor Force 1 4 1 3 .4 1 3 1 2 .0 2 1 2 1 1 12.01 1 0 M i l l i o n s 9 8 7 6 5 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e r a te

Education Sector Projected Student Enrollment: Basic 1 7 1 4 .7 1 5 1 3 1 1 M illio n s 8 .8 9 7 7.9 3.7 5 3 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Number of Students: Secondary 3 2 .9 2 .5 2 2 .0 M illio n s 1 .5 1 .7 1 0 .5 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e Source: Ministry of Education, 2004

Required Number of Basic Teachers 4 9 0 5 0 0 3 5 3 4 0 0 T h o u s a n d s 3 0 0 2 6 4 2 0 0 1 2 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Required Number of Secondary Teachers 1 0 0 9 2 9 0 8 0 7 4 7 0 T h o u s a n d s 6 0 5 4 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Expenditures to Establish New Classrooms, 2008-2035 Secondary Basic High: $7.68 B High: $1.27 B Moderate: $3.78 B Moderate: $795 M Low: $2.83 B Low: $651 M

Required Expenditures for Basic Students 1 9 0 0 1 6 4 6 1 4 0 0 M illio n $ 9 8 9 9 0 0 8 8 7 4 1 9 4 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Required Expenditures for Secondary Students 3 8 8 4 0 0 3 5 0 2 7 2 3 0 0 2 5 0 M i lli o n $ 2 0 0 2 2 8 1 5 0 8 2 1 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Health Sector Number of Required Doctors (same service ratio) 2 0 1 6 .4 1 5 12.1 T h o u s a n d s 11.6 1 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 7 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 7 2 0 3 2 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Number of Required Doctors (assuming improved service ratio) 1 2 5 1 2 3 9 0 1 0 0 7 5 8 7 ﻒﻟﻷﺎ������������������ﺑ 5 0 2 5 6 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Required Number of Hospital Beds 6 5 6 1 .3 5 5 4 5 .2 4 5 T h o u s a n d s 4 0 .5 3 5 2 5 1 5 .6 1 5 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Recurrent Health Expenditures 1 6 0 0 1 5 3 0 1 4 0 0 1 1 2 9 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 8 4 $ M illio n s 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w H ig h M o d e ra t e

Natural Resources Per Capita Arable Land 0 .0 6 0 .0 7 0 .0 6 0 .0 5 0 .0 4 H e c t a r e p e r c a p i t a 0 .0 4 0.04 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 L o w F e rt ilit y C o n s t a n t F e rt ilit y M o d e ra t e

Water Per Capita 1 4 0 120 1 2 0 1 0 0 8 0 66 C u b i c m e t e r s 6 0 62 4 0 44 2 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e ra t e

Required Water 9 0 0 0 8 3 9 2 8 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 6 1 9 2 6 0 0 0 M i l l i o n c u b i c m e t e r s 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 3 . 4 0 0 0 3 0 7 5 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H i g h L o w M o d e r a t e

Electricity Per Capita (current shortage is 25%) 2 5 0 195 2 0 0 1 5 0 K i l o w a t t / h o u r 108 1 0 0 105 71 5 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 8 2 0 3 3 H ig h L o w M o d e r a te

Outline I. Population Characteristics and Projections II. Sectoral Impacts – Economy – Education – Health – Natural Resources III. Conclusions and Main Challenge

The Price to Pay For Continuing High Fertility 1.5 million 29 % less new entrants income per to labor person force 33% less water $ 5.5 billion S447 million to build new in 2035 for classrooms recurrent health exp.

Can we do it?

Population Growth and Economic Development 2 0 0 1 8 0 1 6 0 1 4 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 M illio n s 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 4 2 0 2 4 2 0 3 4 2 0 4 4 2 0 5 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 7 4 2 0 8 4 2 0 9 4 U n m e t N e e d S a tis fie d U N M e d iu m P r o je c tio n C u r r e n t S itu a tio n

Main Challenge: High Fertility Due to Low Family Planning Use and High Unmet Need Married women: • 51% have unmet need for FP 51% • Only 23% use FP 23% • Have limited access to RH/FP services Married women, Ages 15-49