2014 Elections: Education, Mood of the Electorate, and Midterm - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jonathan Voss jvoss@lakeresearch.com @jonovoss

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

2014 Elections: Education, Mood of the Electorate, and Midterm Dynamics.

July 10th, 2014

 Midterm Dynamics – The Rising American Electorate  Mood of the Electorate  Key Economic Values  Political Dynamics  Battleground  General Attitudes Toward Education

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Midterm Dynamics: Turnout and the Rising American Electorate

The Rising American Electorate—the groups that powered President Obama to victory in 2012 and 2008

• The Rising American Electorate (RAE) – Unmarried

Women, Youths (ages 18-29), African Americans, Latinos, and all other members of racial and ethnic minorities (Census) races – now accounts for more than half of the voting eligible population in this country (53.5%).

• While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, they

still do not vote in proportion to their share of the population.

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67 60 93 71 31 37 6 27

Obama Romney

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Source: CNN 2012 Exit Polls

Unmarried Women Latinos 2012 Presidential Ballot 18-29 Year Olds African Americans

+44 +36 +23 +87

Strong majorities of the RAE voted for President Obama in 2012.

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• Total drop-off: Est. 34 million votes
• RAE Voter drop-off: Est. 21.8 million votes
• Unmarried women drop-off: Est. 12.5 million votes
• Non-RAE Voter drop-off: Est. 12.2 million votes

Source: CPS November 2012 Supplement

Distribution of Drop-Off Voters Non-RAE 35.9% RAE 64.1%

Midterm Elections = Voter Drop-Off

Vote Eligible Population Non-RAE 46.5% RAE 53.5%

Percentage of Voters Estimated to Drop-off in 2014 (compared to 2012 turnout) by Demographics

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17.5% 34.5% 32.9% 34.1% 36.2% 46.8% Non-RAE RAE Unmarried Women Latino/a African American Under 30

12.2 Million Votes 21.8 Million Votes 10.5 Million Votes 3.8 Million Votes 6.5 Million Votes 9.6 Million Votes

Source: Census Bureau, CPS November 2012 supplement

Unfortunately for Democrats, RAE voters are not as motivated to vote as voters overall

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Source: Democracy Corps/WVWVAF & VPC National Survey, April 2014

66 84

RAE Non-RAE

Percent saying they are almost certain to vote in 2014

• 18

Pundits across the country are pointing out what a challenge this is for Democrats in 2014

• “The very structure of the 21st-century national Democratic coalition makes

its November turnout predicament bad, perhaps historically so.” – John Harwood, The New York Times, March 31, 2014

• “In other words, the very groups Dems increasingly rely upon to win state

and national elections are also the least likely to turn out in a midterm: Minorities, young voters, and unmarried women.” – Greg Sargent, The Washington Post, April 3, 2014

• “There’s never been a worse coalition for the purpose of a midterm election.”

– David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, March 31, 2014

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Putting this in practical terms: We project that in Florida, nearly 600,000 18-29 year olds who voted in 2012 will no vote in 2014. This is close to TEN TIMES Republican Governor Rick Scott’s margin

• f victory over Alex Sink in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

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1,127,820 557,106 61,550 Under 30s 2012 2014 Rick Scott-Alex Sink

Under 30 Voter drop-off: 52.3%

• Est. 590,000 votes
• 590,000

Mood of the Electorate

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Understanding Where Voters Are

37 41 20

Gotten Better Gotten Worse Stayed the Same

Do you think that the national economy has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years?

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

A narrow plurality of voters think the national economy has gotten worse

• ver the last four years.

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26 34 39

Gotten Better Gotten Worse Stayed the Same

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

Voters are even less optimistic on their personal financial situation, with only

• ne in four saying things have gotten better in the last four years.

Understanding Where Voters Are

Do you think that your personal economic situation has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same over the past four years?

Government and politicians spiked as the top problem facing America in the wake of the government shutdown, reaching levels not seen since Watergate, although it has declined in importance since then.

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Source: Gallup

35 27 36 42 45 38 32 31 27 17 29 26 26 27 20 25 18 19 9 28 18 21 24 42 24 25 26 24 41 45 38 32 34 33 49 47 48 42 46 48 47 48 10 20 30 40 50 60

Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14

Economy Will Get Better Economy Will Get Worse Economy Will Stay About the Same

Economic perceptions over the past two years.

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During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse

• r stay about the same?

Hart/McInturff. NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey.

2012 Election Fiscal Cliff Shutdown

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Americans are intensely frustrated with their government and believe that the country is off on the wrong track.

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Survey. Conducted by Hart Research Associates & Public Opinion Strategies.

Government Shutdown

Key Economic Values

“The government should be doing something to reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else.”

41 26 50 16

59 39 69 27

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

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RAE All Voters

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

“The economic rules in this country unfairly favor the rich.”

44 15 50 10

64 34 70 28

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

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March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

RAE All Voters

“Middle class people have it the toughest in our economic

• system. There are assistance programs for the poor and tax

breaks for the rich, but no real help for middle class people.”

44 8 48 8

72 25 75 22

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

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March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

RAE All Voters

The RAE respond more strongly to the core Democratic message on the economy.

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps/Women’s Voices Women Vote: April 2014, n=950 2012 voters, n=840 Likely 2014 voters

Political Dynamics

The President’s Approval Ratings Are Underwater (-13)

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President Bush’s Approval 7/10/2006 (-18)

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Obama receives negative job approval ratings across all major issues, with the lowest ratings on the federal budget and spending.

Net

• 6
• 11
• 12

Disapprove Approve

Obama Issue Approval

• 8
• 15
• 29

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

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Disapproval of Congress unites voters of both parties, but independents give the lowest approval ratings.

How would you rate the job Congress is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?

Republicans Democrats Independents

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

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Democrats hold huge leads on Social Security, Medicare, and representing the middle class. Republicans hold a modest edge on the economy.

Net

+18 +14 +13

Republicans Democrats

+10 +8

• 4

March Battleground Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Conducted March 16th – March 20th among 1,000 likely 2014 voters. Margin of error +/- 3.1%.

I am going to read you a list of issues. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, whether you have more confidence in -- (ROTATE) • the Republican Party, OR • the Democratic Party – to deal with this issue. Here is the first one:

Battleground

Democrats hold slim advantage in national head- to-head horse race.

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Senate Battleground R’s Need 6 for Majority

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Governor Battleground

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Current Legislative Majorities D=18 R=26

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http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx

Purple: States with Less than 20% Partisan Difference Green: Less than 20% in Both Chambers R=5, D=9 (Split=3)

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http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx http://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2014

General Attitudes Toward Education

Creating jobs and reducing the deficit are voters’ top priorities for the Obama administration and this year’s Congress, with ensuring all children have access to pre-school education following closely behind.

27 38 39 45 49 49 51 54 56 57 59 60 66 74 91

Addressing the issue of climate change Enacting pension and entitlement reform Passing new immigration legislation Reducing income inequality Reforming the nation's intelligence system Using federal aid $ to encourage colleges to offer affordable tuition Increasing the minumum wage Fix and keep the new health care law Reforming Social Security and Medicare Withdrawing almost all combat troops from Afghanistan Closing corporate tax loopholes Addressing Iran's nuclear program Ensuring all children have access to pre-school education Reducing the federal budget deficit Creating Jobs

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Should this be an absolute priority for the Obama administration and THIS year’s Congress, is it something that can be delayed until next year, or something that should not be pursued?

% Saying Absolute Top Priority For This Year NBC/Wall Street Journal. January 2014

41% 51% 63% 71% 15% 13% 6% 6% 83% 65% 80% 58% 39% 29% 17% 13%

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There is strong opposition among Americans to spending cuts in social programs, particularly K-12 education.

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove

Cut spending on K-12 public education Cut Medicaid health program Reduce annual cost

• f living increase for

Social Security benefits Raise age for Medicare eligibility from 65 to 67

Most Americans see a need for change in our K-12 education system with only five percent of voters thinking the system currently works pretty well.

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When it comes to education in grades K -12, how well do you think our public schools work?

5 26 3 36 61

Not Sure Works Pretty Well/Some changes Needed Major Changes Needed/Complete Overhaul Needed

* Darker Colors Indicate Intensity NBC/Wall Street Journal. June 2014

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Americans want the same quality of education across states.

32 64

Each state should set

• wn expectations

Expectations for student learning should be the same regardless of which state you live in Which comes closest to your opinion about how education should work in the US?

University of Connecticut, April 22 - April 30, 2014 and based on 1,007 telephone interviews.

93 7

Important Not Important How important do you think it is that there is consistency in the quality of education between states?

Most parents are unsure about Common Core, and partisanship shapes views.

35 26 45 28 42 23 37 31 33

Public School Parents Republican Leaning Parents Democratic Leaning parents

Total Positive Total Negative Unsure

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/168482/parents-lean-favor-common-core-unaware.aspx

From what you have heard do you have a positive or negative view of the Common Core Standards?

Parents across party lines believe three core components of Common Core will have positive impacts

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Jonathan Voss jvoss@lakeresearch.com @jonovoss

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066