2018 BFG Q3 Webinar Return of Volatility 3rd Quarter Market Recap - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2018 – BFG Q3 Webinar “Return of Volatility”

3rd Quarter Market Recap

3rd Quarter Returns

Stock Markets

3rd QTR YTD 2017 Domestic Large Cap Equity Index 1 7.71% 10.56% 21.83% Domestic Small Cap Equity Index 2 3.58% 11.51% 14.65% International Developed Equity Index 3 1.35%

• 1.43%

25.03% International Emerging Market Equity Index 4

• 1.09%
• 7.68%

37.28% Bond & Commodity Markets 3rd QTR YTD 2017 U.S. Bonds Index 5 0.02%

• 1.60%

3.54% Commodity Index6

• 2.02%
• 2.03%

1.70%

BFG Portfolio Tactical Positions

Overweights Underweight Equities Bonds U.S. Equities International Equities Technology Utilities Financials Telecom Healthcare & Biotech Consumer Staples Online Retailers Value Small Caps Growth

What about Bonds?

10-Year Treasury Note vs. Fed Reserve Rate

Fed Funds Rate - 10-Year Treasury Yield -

Impact of rising interest rates

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

Fixed Income Portfolio Adjustments

Higher Yields are GOOD for Bonds

The Role of Fixed Income

Recessionary Fears

2nd Longest Recovery Period

Households Aren’t Over-Leveraged

Wealth Effect on Consumer Spending

Yield Curve still Positive

Chances of Recession Currently Low

Leading Indicators Still Strong

Unemployment & Inflation Indicator

Keep Big Picture in Mind

Historically recessions last less than 2-years

Where do we go From Here

Not Time to Abandon Stocks

Previous Aug / Sept Market Highs

Source: Bloomberg; @SentimenTrader

Election Cycle Impact

Why Diversification Works

Disclosure

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy,

• r product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or

undertaken by Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.. Please remember to contact Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd., in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Bouchey Financial Group, Ltd.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Q & A

Follow-up Questions please contact us at: Office Phone: 518-720-3333 Email Contact: planningpaysoff@Bouchey.com

Questions from the Audience

• The National debt keeps growing in leaps and bounds. Is

there a benchmark for how large it has to go before it affects markets? And what happens then?

• How will the team adjust portfolios to a lower growth,

higher rate environment?

• Have we invested in cannabis stocks?
• At what level interest rate on the 10-Year treasury would

we consider a reallocation from equities to bonds?