2020 Interim Results Presentation
26 FEBRUARY 2020
2020 Interim Results Presentation 26 FEBRUARY 2020 Progress on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2020 Interim Results Presentation 26 FEBRUARY 2020 Progress on strategy 26 FEBRUARY 2020 2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 2 Progress on strategy 26 FEBRUARY 2020 2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 3 Financial performance 26 FEBRUARY 2020
26 FEBRUARY 2020
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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86% imputed, unchanged from 1H FY19
since the programme began in August 2015
update later in 2020
Dividends declared 1H FY20 1H FY19 cents per share imputation cents per share imputation Ordinary dividends 5.70 86% 5.70 86% Capital management special dividends 2.44 0% 2.44 0% Total 8.14 8.14
Source: Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
5.10 5.33 5.38 5.70 5.70 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 7.54 7.77 7.82 8.14 8.14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPS Six Months ended 31 December
Interim dividend declared
Ordinary dividend Special dividend Total
26 FEBRUARY 2020
598 510 +30 +49 +8
+92
+65
300 400 500 600 700
Energy Margin 31 Dec 18 Res, SMB, Agi sales C&I sales NZAS sales Generation spot revenue Cost to supply customers Derivative sales and purchases Cost of derivative sales and purchases Net VAS Other Energy Margin 31 Dec 19
$M
New Zealand energy margin movement
6
segments
pressure in corporate
hedging revenues all reflected lower wholesale prices
portfolio
positions
Refer to pages 38-39 for a further breakdown of New Zealand energy margin
Source: Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
Physical +$94M Financial
26 FEBRUARY 2020
10% in small medium business while maintaining average sales price
$30M (13%)
13% higher average sales price
(57%)
provider in Consumer NZ’s annual survey
Customer sales
Customer numbers (ICPs) Sales volume (GWh) Average price ($/MWh) 1H FY20 Residential 205,712 801 Small medium business 42,308 546 Agricultural 40,661 592 Large business 21,605 248 Total Residential/SMB 310,286 2,187 $116 Corporate 3,313 1,474 $93 1H FY19 Residential 198,740 762 Small medium business 38,781 496 Agricultural 37,978 455 Large business 18,658 223 Total Residential/SMB 294,157 1,936 $116 Corporate 2,426 1,063 $82
7
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
57 44 93 124 101 50 100 150 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $/MWh Six Months ended 31 December
NZ average generation price
for a first half financial year
lifted Meridian’s 1H FY20 inflows to 136% of average
1H FY20, concerns around gas supply remain
and April 2020 for reconductoring and replacement works
through wind generation and financial contracting
North Island reserve availability and pricing
Source: Meridian
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
Source: Transpower
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
1 Jan 8 Jan 15 Jan 22 Jan 29 Jan 5 Feb 12 Feb 19 Feb 26 Feb 4 Mar 11 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar 1 Apr 8 Apr 15 Apr 22 Apr 29 Apr
MW
2020 HVDC capacity
Pole 2 Out DC Max: 780MW Earth Electrode Out DC Max: 400MW Pole 3 Out DC Max: 500MW today
9
states and white label channels
decline reflects higher amounts paid to customers for solar export
competitive repositioning
Electricity Provider of the Year
Source: Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500
Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-
Powershop Australia net customer changes
electricity gas
26 FEBRUARY 2020
65 66 +6 +10
+19
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Energy Margin 31 Dec 18 Electricity sales Gas sales Generation spot revenue Cost to supply customers Derivative sales and purchases Cost of derivative sales and purchases Energy Margin 31 Dec 19
$NZ M
Australian energy margin movement
10
margin
impacted total generation, 13% lower than 1H FY19
Physical
Financial +$6M
Refer to page 40 for a further breakdown of Australian energy margin
Source: Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
48 50 25 20 44 49 24 18 10 20 30 40 50 60 NZ Wholesale NZ Retail Australia Other $M Six Months ended 31 December
Operating costs
2019 2018
11
now $75M (multi-year opex and capex) and allows a 10-year deferral of other works
the $280M to $286M range previously indicated
$70M to $80M range previously indicated
costs of $6M (compared to FY19)
depreciation (below EBITDAF)
Source: Meridian
Total 31 December 2019 $143m Total 31 December 2018 $135m
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
465 389 +88
200 300 400 500
EBITDAF 31 Dec 18 NZ energy margin Aus energy margin Other revenue Transmission expenses Operating expenses EBITDAF 31 Dec 19
$M
Group EBITDAF movement
12
1H FY19 supported by higher customer sales
and lower Australian generation
Waitaki Lines Project support
Source: Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
332 354 329 389 465 318 303 337 449 650 657 666 838 200 400 600 800 1,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
Group EBITDAF
Interim Final half-year Total
Source: Meridian
26 FEBRUARY 2020
1Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation,
changes in fair value of hedges and other significant items
122 131 104 144 184 111 90 102 189 233 221 206 333 100 200 300 400 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
Underlying npat
Interim Final half-year Total
13
1Net profit before tax 2Net profit after tax adjusted for the effects of non-cash fair value movements and other one-off items
Source: Meridian
revaluation (+$1B)
electricity hedges from changing forward electricity prices ($20M increase in 1H FY19)
treasury instruments ($15M decrease in 1H FY19)
(+26%) and Underlying NPAT2 (+28%)
comparatives, $6M full year EBITDAF increase
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
90 100 110 120 130 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1-Dec-19 15-Dec-19 29-Dec-19 12-Jan-20 26-Jan-20 GWh $/MWh
Spot wholesale prices and demand
National demand Otahuhu Benmore
15
in gas supply concerns
supply
significant flood management in both catchments
wholesale price declines in line with Christmas demand reduction
2020
Source: Electricity Authority, Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
HVDC outage commenced
26 FEBRUARY 2020
60 100 140 180 220 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021 Q1 2022 Q3 2022 Q1 2023 Q3 2023 $/MWh
Otahuhu ASX futures price settment
31 August 2018 31 January 2020 actual since September 2018
Source: ASX
16
demand (excluding agricultural)
annual consumption with variable seasonal usage
wholesale prices are encouraging new generation to market
Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
37.2 37.6 37.3 37.0 37.2 37.7 35 36 37 38 39 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 TWh
Annual electricity consumption (excl. agri)
26 FEBRUARY 2020
17
expected by the middle of 2020
513.0m), providing 367GWh of additional storage
for a new 115MW wind farm in northern NSW
development
Source: Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
EPR
and Government’s response released in October 2019
recommendations TPM
during Q4 2019
2020, including prudent discounts
expected in Q2 2020
18
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
Electricity Price Review key recommendations within 3 months within 12 months within 18 months in 3 years End Prompt Payment Discounts, reasonable late payment fees allowed Mandatory ASX futures market making unless industry incentive-based scheme Generator- retailers to report separately on financial performance of retail and generation segments Further review
Government’s second term to ensure savings for customers Introduce moratorium on saves and win- backs Establish a pilot scheme to help non-switching customers Phase out low fixed charge tariff regulations over 5 years commenced
26 FEBRUARY 2020
Zero Carbon Bill
Response Act
greenhouse gases, excluding methane
Emissions Trading Reform Bill
2025 (initially with 95% free allocation)
auctions and capped
19
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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Action for Healthy Waterways
prioritising the health of waterways
processes and set national standards
Freshwater Management
are explicitly recognised as crucial to energy and climate change
health in those catchments
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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strategic review of the Tiwai smelter
consider all options, including curtailment and closure
end of the first quarter in 2020
Tinto for 622MW and 450MW of electricity
the smelter are possible
and all generators
Island transmission and demand sources, however an orderly exit will need time
Source: NZX, Meridian
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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support recommencement of Clutha Upper Waitaki Lines Project
pending a smelter exit
transmission constraints alleviated by June 2022
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
3 1 4 5 2
23
across 3 geographies
additional 200,000 customers by end of 2020
from legacy systems at end of January 2020
Source: NZX, Meridian
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tailwinds, however execution was excellent
further field outages in 2020
generation, strong North Island wind has helped
policies of the coalition Government will support future renewable generation
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
$525M were undrawn
uncommitted basis
26 FEBRUARY 2020
30% 3% 25% 3% 30% 9%
Sources of Funding - 31 December 2019
NZ$ bank facilities drawn/undrawn EKF - Danish export credit Retail Bonds Floating rate notes US private placement Commercial paper 89 225 60 160 160 767 71 105 175 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24 CY25+ $M
Debt maturity profile as at 31 December 2019
Available facilities maturing Drawn debt maturing (face value)
27
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION
asset enhancement spend
$70M and $80M
investment spend
26 FEBRUARY 2020
19 20 17 23 24 31 28 30 25 50 48 47 48 20 40 60 80 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $M Financial Year ended 30 June
Stay in business capital expenditure
Interim Final half-year Total
28
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
102 103 106 109 112 117 115 119 119 120 56 59 66 74 82
100 200 300 400 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 ICP (000)
New Zealand customer connections
Meridian North Island Meridian South Island Powershop
29
Customers
Residential, business, agri segment
Corporate segment
Total 275 277 291 302 314
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020 2,001 1,886 2,027 1,936 2,187 1,163 911 1,114 1,063 1,474 3,164 2,797 3,141 2,999 3,661 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GWH Six Months ended 31 December
New Zealand retail sales volume
Residential, SMB, Agri Corporate Total
30
Inflows
Storage
was 136% of average
average
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GWH
Financial year
MERIDIAN'S COMBINED CATCHMENT INFLOWS
December YTD 86 year average 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec GWH
MERIDIAN'S WAITAKI STORAGE
Average 1979- 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
31
Volume
FY19, with higher hydro and higher wind generation Price
its generation was 19% lower than 1H FY19
supply customers was 21% lower than 1H FY19
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020 6,087 6,296 5,289 5,925 6,408 771 733 648 621 779 6,858 7,029 5,937 6,546 7,187 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GWH Six Months ended 31 December
New Zealand generation
Hydro Wind Total 57 44 93 124 101 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $/MWh Six Months ended 31 December
NZ average generation price
32
Customers
June 2019
2019 Sales volume
FY20
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020 163 241 289 280 329 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GWH Six Months ended 31 December
Australian retail sales volume
78 97 97 110 125
23 30 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Dec-19
Australian customer connections
Electricity Gas
33
Volume
FY19
1H FY19
than 1H FY19
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020 437 309 305 296 290 123 77 437 309 305 419 367 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GWH Six Months ended 31 December
Australian generation
Wind Hydro Total
465 389 +79
+145
100 200 300 400 500 600
EBITDAF 31 Dec 2018 Retail contracted sales Wholesale contracted sales Generation spot revenue Cost to supply customers Net cost of hedges Virtual asset swaps Other market costs Australian energy margin Other revenue Transmission expenses Employee &
expenses EBITDAF 31 Dec 2019
$M
Movement in EBITDAF
34
New Zealand energy margin +$88M
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
184 191 465
+10
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
EBITDAF Depreciation and amortisation Premiums paid on electricity options net
Net finance costs Tax Underlying NPAT Net change in fair value of hedges/instruments Loss on sale of assets/impairments Premiums paid on electricity options net
Tax NPAT
$M
1H FY20 EBITDAF TO NPAT RECONCILIATION
36
representing energy sales revenue less energy related expenses and energy distribution expenses
performance of the retail and wholesale businesses
requires gross sales and costs to be reported separately, therefore not accounting for the variability of the wholesale spot market and the broadly
cost of retail electricity purchases
Defined as
distribution costs (fees to distribution network companies that cover the costs of distribution of electricity to customers), sales to large industrial customers and fixed price revenues from financial contracts sold (contract sales revenue)
customer sales and financial contracts sold (cost to supply customers)
net of spot revenue received from those derivatives (net cost hedging)
generates (generation spot revenue)
Energy and Mercury New Zealand
Electricity Authority levies and ancillary generation revenues, such as frequency keeping
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
598 255 136 246 727
94
3
300 600 900 1,200 1,500
Res, SMB, Agi sales C&I sales Financial contract sales (incl NZAS) Generation spot revenue Cost to supply customers Cost to supply financial contracts Hedging fixed costs Hedging spot revenue Contract close outs VAS margins Market costs Energy Margin
$M
New Zealand energy margin
38
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
598 510 +30 +49
+92 +53 +15
200 300 400 500 600 700
Energy Margin 31 Dec 18 Res, SMB, Agi sales C&I sales Financial contract sales (incl NZAS) Generation spot revenue Cost to supply customers Cost to supply financial contracts Hedging fixed costs Hedging spot revenue Contract close outs VAS marginsMarket costs Energy Margin 31 Dec 19
$M
New Zealand energy margin movement
39
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
40
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manage interest rate, foreign exchange and electricity price risk
instruments move, non-cash changes to their carrying value are reflected in NPAT
accounting if specific conditions are met, which creates NPAT volatility
electricity hedges from changing forward electricity prices ($20M increase in 1H FY19)
treasury instruments ($15M decrease in 1H FY19)
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 1H FY20 $M
Change in fair value of financial instruments
42
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44
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Hedging volumes buy-side electricity derivatives excluding the buy-side of virtual asset swaps Average generation price the volume weighted average price received for Meridian’s physical generation Average retail contracted sales price volume weighted average electricity price received from retail customers, less distribution costs Average wholesale contracted sales price volume weighted average electricity price received from wholesale customers (including NZAS) and financial contracts Combined catchment inflows combined water inflows into Meridian’s Waitaki and Waiau hydro storage lakes Cost of hedges volume weighted average price Meridian pays for derivatives acquired Cost to supply contracted sales volume weighted average price Meridian pays to supply contracted customer sales and financial contracts Contracts for Difference (CFDs) an agreement between parties to pay the difference between the wholesale electricity price and an agreed fixed price for a specified volume of electricity. CFDs do not result in the physical supply of electricity Customer connections (NZ) number of installation control points, excluding vacants FRMP financially responsible market participant GWh gigawatt hour. Enough electricity for 125 average New Zealand households for one year Historic average inflows the historic average combined water inflows into Meridian’s Waitaki and Waiau hydro storage lakes over the last 84 years Historic average storage the historic average level of storage in Meridian’s Waitaki catchment since 1979 HVDC high voltage direct current link between the North and South Islands of New Zealand ICP New Zealand installation control points, excluding vacants ICP switching the number of installation control points changing retailer supplier in New Zealand, recorded in the month the switch was initiated MWh megawatt hour. Enough electricity for one average New Zealand household for 46 days National demand Electricity Authority’s reconciled grid demand www.emi.ea.govt.nz NZAS New Zealand Aluminium Smelters Limited Retail sales volumes contract sales volumes to retail customers, including both non half hourly and half hourly metered customers Financial contract sales sell-side electricity derivatives excluding the sell-side of virtual asset swaps TJ Terajoules Virtual Asset Swaps (VAS) CFDs Meridian has with Genesis Energy and Mercury New Zealand. They do not result in the physical supply of electricity
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020
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The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability
directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and
what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty
is not obliged to update this presentation after its release, even if things change materially. This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities. This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation
by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP financial measures. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in conjunction with the company’s condensed financial statements for the six months ended 31 December 2019, available at: www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated
2020 INTERIM RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 FEBRUARY 2020