A realistic view on the future of aviation Dont expect too much - - PDF document

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18-5-2018 A realistic view on the future of aviation Dont expect too much Joris Melkert Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Content Snowball effect in aviation Developments so far Supersonic aircraft Electric aircraft

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A realistic view on the future of aviation

Don’t expect too much

Joris Melkert Faculty of Aerospace Engineering

Content

Snowball effect in aviation
Developments so far
Supersonic aircraft
Electric aircraft
Alternative fuels
An airport in the North Sea
New configurations
Conclusion

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Snowball effect in aviation

1 kg more mass

> 1 kg more lift required

lift is not for free - > more aerodynamic drag more drag -> more thrust more thrust

> bigger engines
> more fuel

} -> more mass

Snowball effect in aviation

Maximum take-off weight 548,000 kg Payload 83,000 kg = 6.60 = Quick estimate numerical value snowball factor Airbus A380:

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Developments so far - spot the differences

Sources: airliners.net, @zhangmx969, Shimin Gu

1967 1987 2017 Developments so far – fuel consumption

Source: Lee, IEA

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Developments so far – fuel consumption

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CO_2 emission (gramme/ seat‐km) Year of first flight propeller (560 km) short haul (900‐1200 km) short haul (1900 km) medium haul (4000‐5560 km) long haul (9300‐14100 km)

Developments so far - noise

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Developments so far - manufacturers Developments so far - manufacturers

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Source: IATA

$16.32 $6.94 $4.96 $4.96

$1.50

$2.87

Developments so far - airlines Net profit per ticket Supersonic flight

M < 0.8 subsonic aircraft 0.8 < M < 1.2 transsonic aircraft 1.2 < M < 4 supersonic aircraft M > 4 hypersonic “vehicles”

Mach number :

flight speed M speed of sound 

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Supersonic flight Supersonic flight

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Supersonic flight

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

drag coefficient Mach number

Supersonic flight

Bron: Aerion

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Supersonic flight

Bron: Aerion

Supersonic flight

Bron: Aerion

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Supersonic flight

Source: Medium

Supersonic flight

Source: EADS

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Supersonic flight

Source: Lockheed Martin

Supersonic flight

Source: Avherald

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Supersonic flight

Source: TU Delft

Electric Aircraft

Source: Pipistrel, Airbus

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Electric Aircraft

Source: Pipistrel, Airbus

Electric Aircraft

Source: Pipistrel, Airbus

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Electric Aircraft

Source: Hartzellprop.com

Electric Aircraft

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 100 150 volumetric energy density MJ/ liter gravimetric energy density MJ/ kg Liquid hydrogen LNG Lithium Battery Methanol Ethanol Biodiesel Jet A / Jet A-1 F-T kerosene

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Electric Aircraft

Source: Hartzellprop.com

Electric flight will be there! However:

It will not be the next generation commercial aircraft
It will come via two routes
1. General aviation
2. Hybrid passenger aircraft

Alternative fuels

Source: KLM

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Electric Aircraft

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50 100 150 volumetric energy density MJ/ liter gravimetric energy density MJ/ kg Liquid hydrogen LNG Lithium Battery Methanol Ethanol Biodiesel Jet A / Jet A-1 F-T kerosene

Alternative fuels

Area-averaged probe Measurement of ICAO LTO emissions by DLR Direct particle size and number Cessna Citation II - P&W JT15Ds GTL 0-50% in two base fuels for ground testing GTL 0-90% in flight testing

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Alternative fuels Alternative fuels

Soot filters in undiluted sampling line

Area-averaged probe Measurement of ICAO LTO emissions by DLR Direct particle size and number Cessna Citation II - P&W JT15Ds GTL 0-50% in two base fuels for ground testing GTL 0-90% in flight testing

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Alternative fuels

Source: Olivier Cleynen

Is hydrogen an option? Yes, you can use hydrogen in jet engines. But you will need some modifications. A better alternative would be to make use of hydrogen fuel cells and electric motors.

An airport in the North Sea

Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117

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An airport in the North Sea

Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117

An airport in the North Sea

Source: tix.nl, By Wylkie Chan - Wylkie Chan, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11251117

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An airport in the North Sea

Source: Vlucht naar Voren

An airport in the North Sea

Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl

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An airport in the North Sea

Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl

An airport in the North Sea

Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl

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An airport in the North Sea

Source: kwaliteitsatlas.nl

Future developments on airports

Source: TU Delft

Ultra–green Highly customer oriented Highly time efficient

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Future developments on airports

Safety & Security Airport Performance Optimization Efficiency & Resilience Noise & Emissions Circular Economy Passenger Experience Seamless door-to- door journeys Better Airport Regions Autonomous & electric vehicles Aircraft design & Propulsion Biofuels Emergency Airports Multimodal Transport systems Responsible Innovation Baggage Big Data

New configurations

Source: orbitalvector.com

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New configurations

Source: DLR

New configurations

Source: NASA

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New configurations

Source: theverge.com

New configurations

Source: Airbus

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New configurations

Sources: GE, NASA, aerobuzz.fr,Entrevoisins, NLR

New configurations

Sources: NASA

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New configurations – quick change New configurations – quick change

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New configurations – quick change New configurations – quick change

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New configurations – quick change

Source: Mets747, CNN, Airbus

New configurations – quick change

Source: blogs.wsj.com

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Conclusions

There are no major quick changes to be expected We need more research and development We need to look into alternative “drop-in” fuels We need better procedures (Single European Sky) For more rapid changes we need stronger incentives (legislation + societal pressure)