accuracies Arie ten Cate Estimating reporting accuracies exp imp - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The harmonisation of mirror data using simultaneously estimated accuracies Arie ten Cate Estimating reporting accuracies exp imp discrepancies average discrepancy per country?
The harmonisation of mirror data using simultaneously estimated accuracies Arie ten Cate
Estimating reporting accuracies exp β π¦ ππ imp β’ discrepancies Ξ ππ β‘ π¦ ππ β’ average discrepancy per country? β’ simultaneously estimate all accuracies β’ accurate: small bias or small variance?
The bias model β’ every country has an export bias and an import bias exp β π π imp E Ξ ππ = π π β’ Tsigas, Hertel & Binkley, 1992 β’ restriction needed exp + Ξ£ ΞΌ π imp = 0 Ξ£ ΞΌ π
The variance model β’ every country has an export variance and an import variance β’ independent reporters exp + V imp Var Ξ ππ = π π π β’ Stone, Champernowne and Meade, 1942 exp = Ξ£ π imp β’ restriction Ξ£ π π π β’ hard to estimate - multiple likelihood maxima
Applications β’ Trade in services in the EU β very large discrepancies β UK, Germany, France, Italy β’ World trade in goods β data Tsigas et al. β USA, Japan, EC, other W-Europe, NewZealand
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